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It's amusing to start speculating how this might now play out faster thank expected.

 

Between the share repurchase and BRK last quarter the two bought 270m SIRI shares. At the beginning of the quarter there were only 1690m free float non-Liberty SIRI shares.  Assuming Berkshire isn't going to turn seller, the non BRK and Liberty float is now down to 1420m. I estimate this means that between the two they've been buying 25% of the daily turnover over the last quarter. Quite aggressive.  Interesting to note also that BRK has had a full 6 weeks of Q1 to continue before yesterdays filing - and could conceivably have added meaningfully to the direct SIRI stake. 

 

Can BRK stop or threaten to stop Liberty repurchasing to 80%? (the tax free dividend level)  Would they want to given they are heavily in on the Liberty side, and would be penalizing their LSXM investments?  Seems very unlikely.

 

Would BRK be willing to take LSXM on an honest SIRI ratio instead of demanding a premium for accepting holdco shares?  As the various Liberty co-investors did investing in LBRD for the Charter deal.

 

Or perhaps we can get setup for an RMT where SIRI would be the surviving entity. But I don't think Malone/Maffei are ready to give up super-votes/control.  So seems unlikely.

 

Either way Berkshire arriving to soak up a bunch of SIRI shares seems to bring the whole share shrink story forward a 6 - 12 months

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Berkshire filed today that they have further increased their holdings of the Liberty Sirius entities.  Interestingly it also details Ted Weschler's personal holdings of the Liberty Sirius entities and he owns quite a bit for an individual.  Obviously he is very wealthy but his position size surprised me.  SEC website has been weird all day but maybe these links will work:

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312517134664/0001193125-17-134664-index.htm

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312517134707/0001193125-17-134707-index.htm

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Here's the link off the Sirius website if sec still not working

 

http://investor.siriusxm.com/investor-overview/default.aspx#reports-tab2

 

Berkshire up now to 13.15m A shares and 27.23m C shares.  Plus the 166.6m SIRI (which could easily now be higher, we'll see the Q1 13F in a couple weeks).  Berkshire total known look-through Sirius investment currently worth about $2.5bn

 

 

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BRK owns 172.3M shares of SIRI and LMC owns 3.16B shares. Together they own ~69.7% of SIRI shares outstanding. Assuming SIRI repurchases $2B shares a year (they repurchased $1.67B in 2016), they would take out ~8.5% of shares outstanding a year. If BRK keeps buying SIRI, something has to give. BRK's position in LSXMA/K is much bigger relative to its SIRI position.

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Berkshire/Weschler adding more shares yesterday again!

 

Oh the suspense:

 

- Will BRK buy SIRI from Liberty?

- Will Liberty buy SIRI from BRK?

- Will Charlie embrace John?

 

Popcorn on order.

 

8)

 

What about an asset swap? Liberty takes the shares and BRK gets a business? tax efficiency.

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What about an asset swap? Liberty takes the shares and BRK gets a business? tax efficiency.

 

Can you walk through this? I am not sure I follow.

 

I think he's talking about a Reverse Morris Trust. You could simultaneously spin-off Liberty SiriusXM from Liberty Media Corporation and merge Liberty SiriusXM into Berkshire. LMC shareholders wouldn't pay any taxes due to the spin and be left w/ LMC shares (Formula One Group & Atlanta Braves Group) and Berkshire shares. Berkshire would then own 100% of SiriusXM eventually through the share buyback & possibly a tender for the residual.

 

I don't know if this is likely, but it's certainly possible to do.

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What about an asset swap? Liberty takes the shares and BRK gets a business? tax efficiency.

 

Can you walk through this? I am not sure I follow.

 

I think he's talking about a Reverse Morris Trust. You could simultaneously spin-off Liberty SiriusXM from Liberty Media Corporation and merge Liberty SiriusXM into Berkshire. LMC shareholders wouldn't pay any taxes due to the spin and be left w/ LMC shares (Formula One Group & Atlanta Braves Group) and Berkshire shares. Berkshire would then own 100% of SiriusXM eventually through the share buyback & possibly a tender for the residual.

 

I don't know if this is likely, but it's certainly possible to do.

 

Right, was thinking more the other way around. Liberty gets the SIRI and LSXM shares and Berkshire gets one of Liberty's non-essential operating businesses (not exactly sure what would appeal to BRK). Similar to how the P&G/Duracell deal worked. Just was spitballing how you know Liberty will do a tax efficient deal and BRK has done a few themselves recently.

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Does it make sense for LXSMA/SIRI to do a similar transaction as LVNTA/CHTR did for GNCMA?  Effectively used tracker to purchase a cable asset with eventual plan to merge CHTR & GNCMA.    That transaction significantly reduced the LVNTA/CHTR discount....

 

Perhaps something similar with P and LXSMA?  Clearly SIRI would like the streaming radio asset which would help SIRI with connected cars down the road and radio anywhere.  Issue is whether  the P NOLs get impaired via 382 on such a transaction or is there a way to structure to avoid same.  P has 818.5mm fed nols and 552mm state nols, and  SIRI NOLs will run out soon.  Hmm....

 

Connecting dots or wild goose chase??

 

 

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In CHTR piece the NY Post also says the Verizon looked at SIRI, though no bid yet:

 

http://nypost.com/2017/05/31/cable-giant-charter-snubbed-a-buyout-bid-from-verizon/

 

Verizon, whose archrival AT&T has moved to expand beyond the wireless world by buying DirecTV and Time Warner, also recently expressed interest in another Liberty Media property, Sirius XM Holdings, sources said.

 

Verizon’s interest in SiriusXM didn’t get as far as a bid, the sources said.

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Now Verizon apparently considering investing in Pandora if SIRI doesn't snap it up soon:

 

http://nypost.com/2017/06/04/verizon-mulling-pandora-investment-if-siriusxm-deal-fails/

 

Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam isn’t weighing a full-on Pandora purchase at this stage since he is still busy integrating his acquisition of Yahoo with AOL in the short term, sources said. But Verizon could be interested in data from Pandora’s 80 million, mostly young mobile users.
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