MrB Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 360L system in RAM 1500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Nothing much to add...but the spread between Sirius and Liberty Sirius seems very wide. With Sirius at $6.22 there is about $58 worth of Sirius per LSMA/K share, and they are trading below $42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Wow! it's true. Looks like the stock price of SIRI has been multiplied by 55% since LSXMA was created, yet LSXMA "only" grew by 28% in the same time period. I'm still puzzled by the discounts on many Malone companies such as Charter VS Liberty Broadband VS Liberty Ventures pre-GCI. Can the market be THAT inefficient? Even sometimes between stock A and stock K of a Malone entity the spread is >5%, which makes no sense. I'm not comfortable with SIRI as a company in the first place but looks like it could be a nice long/short pair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Liberty and Sirius going for iHeartmedia... https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/prnewswire/press_releases/New_York/2018/02/26/NY23505 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Wow, didn't see that one coming. Between Sirius, Pandora, iHeart and LiveNation, it would appear that Liberty is looking to own the future of music. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Nothing much to add...but the spread between Sirius and Liberty Sirius seems very wide. With Sirius at $6.22 there is about $58 worth of Sirius per LSMA/K share, and they are trading below $42. The discount is large but less than your count, I think, by about $6.5 per LSXMA share, if you count the $2.3B of deferred tax liabilities from the capital appreciation. Now it's likely that Liberty will defer payment of that as long as possible. Even with that, at today's SIRI price of $6.34, LSXMA should be around $55. so roughly a 23% discount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefatbaboon Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 i don't count the DTL as Liberty won't pay it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vince Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Shooter, u should double check your math. Without counting any leakage lsxma should be closer to 58. And if you look at the gain of lsxma stock if it rises to close the gap its almost 40 percent. That is easy money. Can something go wrong? Sure, but if you get 10 such unrelated opportunities and assuming you load up, you cant help but make a killing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iheartmedia-debt-liberty-media/liberty-media-offers-1-16-billion-for-40-percent-in-restructured-iheart-idUSKCN1GB06T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Here is the term sheet - looks like 20% would go into SIRI and 20% into one of the Liberties (presumably LSXMA ?) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iheartcommunications-creditors-receive-restructuring-term-sheet-from-liberty-media-corporation-300604145.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iheartmedia-debt-liberty-media/liberty-media-offers-1-16-billion-for-40-percent-in-restructured-iheart-idUSKCN1GB06T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shooter MacGavin Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Shooter, u should double check your math. Without counting any leakage lsxma should be closer to 58. And if you look at the gain of lsxma stock if it rises to close the gap its almost 40 percent. That is easy money. Can something go wrong? Sure, but if you get 10 such unrelated opportunities and assuming you load up, you cant help but make a killing. Vince, I think we're getting to the same place though my DTL math was a little off. As of right now SIRI is 6.34. with 340M FD shares O/S, $160M cash, $250M margin loan NAV is about $60 per share (ex DTL). If I subtract $2.3B of DTL , I'm at $52.64. If you assume $60 is the correct number, you've got 44.5% of upside just from the NAV gap closing on a $41.5 stock for LSXMA/K. If you assume $52.64 is the correct number you've got 26.8%. Either way buying LSXMA is likely to be a high return investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 25iq point about first-party content is spot on. Though that said, much of SiriusXM only content is long-term contracts with sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, SEC, Big10, etc) and with celebs Howard Stern, Garth Brooks, Kevin Hart, or with new content like Barstool Sports. There's no other place to get this stuff and podcast for these listeners is not a substitute. Even with a topping out new auto sales fear, underpenetration in the used car market 35% versus 75% for new car dealers and still low church <2% make SIRI pretty stable in cash flow even if the SAARs decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The negotiations for IHeart have been re-extended until Monday and Maffei said he'd be ready to go even higher than a 40% stake if need be. In the latest conference call, he acknowledged the important tracking stock discount several times. To be showing such a willingness to lay down over a billion dollars for IHeart now instead of buying back his shares, he must be eying a VERY profitable deal here. (It's a busy week end for him since it's also during this week end that QVC (now Qurate) and Liberty Ventures (now GCI Liberty) split apart). I grabbed a few shares today for about 3% of my portfolio :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 IHeart filed Chapter 11 today but I can't find out the details and whether Liberty is involved or not. http://variety.com/2018/biz/news/iheartmedia-chapter-11-bankruptcy-1202715566/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Liberty bought some iHeart debt recently to get a seat at the table. Their last minute offer was too late (and probably too little) IHeart filed Chapter 11 today but I can't find out the details and whether Liberty is involved or not. http://variety.com/2018/biz/news/iheartmedia-chapter-11-bankruptcy-1202715566/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Liberty bought some iHeart debt recently to get a seat at the table. Their last minute offer was too late (and probably too little) IHeart filed Chapter 11 today but I can't find out the details and whether Liberty is involved or not. http://variety.com/2018/biz/news/iheartmedia-chapter-11-bankruptcy-1202715566/ "In a statement, the company said it had reached an agreement with the holders of more than $10 billion of its debt. “The agreement we announced today is a significant accomplishment, as it allows us to definitively address the more than $20 billion in debt that has burdened our capital structure,” CEO Bob Pittman said in a statement. “Achieving a capital structure that finally matches our impressive operating business will further enhance iHeartMedia’s position as America’s #1 audio company.”" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 iHeart docket https://www.pacermonitor.com/view/RKX3SCQ/IHeartMedia_Inc__txsbke-18-31274__0025.0.pdf?mcid=tGEZDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Term sheet https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1400891/000119312518083055/d545787dex994.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 For what it's worth here are my numbers. 3.2B SIRI shares x $6.26 = $20.03B Cash = $615M -$69M held at SiriusXM=$546M Margin Loan = ($750M) Other public Holdings (includes the newly acquired IHeartMedia debt) = $100M (the 20% stake in Pandora is at the SiriusXM level) >>> NAV = $19.926B LSXM outstanding shares = 336M NAV / Share = $59.30 Current Price / Share = $41.11 Discount (%) = (44.2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compounding Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 For what it's worth here are my numbers. 3.2B SIRI shares x $6.26 = $20.03B Cash = $615M -$69M held at SiriusXM=$546M Margin Loan = ($750M) Other public Holdings (includes the newly acquired IHeartMedia debt) = $100M (the 20% stake in Pandora is at the SiriusXM level) >>> NAV = $19.926B LSXM outstanding shares = 336M NAV / Share = $59.30 Current Price / Share = $41.11 Discount (%) = (44.2) Your numbers look basically right except for the discount. Your calculation should be 1-41.11/59.30 = ~30.6% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 For what it's worth here are my numbers. 3.2B SIRI shares x $6.26 = $20.03B Cash = $615M -$69M held at SiriusXM=$546M Margin Loan = ($750M) Other public Holdings (includes the newly acquired IHeartMedia debt) = $100M (the 20% stake in Pandora is at the SiriusXM level) >>> NAV = $19.926B LSXM outstanding shares = 336M NAV / Share = $59.30 Current Price / Share = $41.11 Discount (%) = (44.2) Your numbers look basically right except for the discount. Your calculation should be 1-41.11/59.30 = ~30.6% Symantics. Discount is 30.6%, but upside is 44.2% This board is not very forgiving ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compounding Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 For what it's worth here are my numbers. 3.2B SIRI shares x $6.26 = $20.03B Cash = $615M -$69M held at SiriusXM=$546M Margin Loan = ($750M) Other public Holdings (includes the newly acquired IHeartMedia debt) = $100M (the 20% stake in Pandora is at the SiriusXM level) >>> NAV = $19.926B LSXM outstanding shares = 336M NAV / Share = $59.30 Current Price / Share = $41.11 Discount (%) = (44.2) Your numbers look basically right except for the discount. Your calculation should be 1-41.11/59.30 = ~30.6% Symantics. Discount is 30.6%, but upside is 44.2% This board is not very forgiving ;-) Sorry, I was operating under the assumptions that words have meaning and that people who post material on this forum are open to suggestions for improvement. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinwalt Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 For what it's worth here are my numbers. 3.2B SIRI shares x $6.26 = $20.03B Cash = $615M -$69M held at SiriusXM=$546M Margin Loan = ($750M) Other public Holdings (includes the newly acquired IHeartMedia debt) = $100M (the 20% stake in Pandora is at the SiriusXM level) >>> NAV = $19.926B LSXM outstanding shares = 336M NAV / Share = $59.30 Current Price / Share = $41.11 Discount (%) = (44.2) Your numbers look basically right except for the discount. Your calculation should be 1-41.11/59.30 = ~30.6% Symantics. Discount is 30.6%, but upside is 44.2% This board is not very forgiving ;-) Sorry, I was operating under the assumptions that words have meaning and that people who post material on this forum are open to suggestions for improvement. My mistake. chill out guys... I appreciate everyone's contribution including the clarification as I hadn't run the numbers and hadn't noticed 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 For what it's worth here are my numbers. 3.2B SIRI shares x $6.26 = $20.03B Cash = $615M -$69M held at SiriusXM=$546M Margin Loan = ($750M) Other public Holdings (includes the newly acquired IHeartMedia debt) = $100M (the 20% stake in Pandora is at the SiriusXM level) >>> NAV = $19.926B LSXM outstanding shares = 336M NAV / Share = $59.30 Current Price / Share = $41.11 Discount (%) = (44.2) Your numbers look basically right except for the discount. Your calculation should be 1-41.11/59.30 = ~30.6% Symantics. Discount is 30.6%, but upside is 44.2% This board is not very forgiving ;-) Sorry, I was operating under the assumptions that words have meaning and that people who post material on this forum are open to suggestions for improvement. My mistake. chill out guys... I appreciate everyone's contribution including the clarification as I hadn't run the numbers and hadn't noticed 8) Absolutely. You misunderstood Compounding. I liked the way you're keeping WW honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 Thank you both. I very much welcome being corrected and learning something new, that's why I posted in the first place! In this instance I have to admit you kind of blew my mind because I didn't even know there were two ways of calculating percentages (discount/upside) - not sure I quite fully grasp the difference still... it tickles my brain in a weird way :o Which number do you guys usually pay attention to... What I mean is... If I'm buying LSXMA here am I getting and extra 30 cents or 44 cents on a dollar? Glad the rest of my numbers look OK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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