DELL - Dell Inc.

[boilermaker75]

Looks like two more options.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/dell-brief-idUSWEN0088P20130325?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43

 

I may be out this Friday as I had written 14.50 covered calls last week for $0.11 per share.

[Phaceliacapital]

Blackstone 14.25 p/s

Icahn 15 p/s

[alwaysinvert]

One has to suspect that the Hurd story was leaked to put pressure on Michael Dell.

[stahleyp]

Looks like two more options.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/dell-brief-idUSWEN0088P20130325?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43

 

I may be out this Friday as I had written 14.50 covered calls last week for $0.11 per share.

 

I've been thinking about writing covered calls on the 2015s. Pick up a little bit extra. The only real downside I see is if the deal falls through or there is a massive difference in the buyout prices. I don't think the probabilities are all that high for either of those though.

[boilermaker75]

Looks like two more options.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/25/dell-brief-idUSWEN0088P20130325?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43

 

I may be out this Friday as I had written 14.50 covered calls last week for $0.11 per share.

 

I've been thinking about writing covered calls on the 2015s. Pick up a little bit extra. The only real downside I see is if the deal falls through or there is a massive difference in the buyout prices. I don't think the probabilities are all that high for either of those though.

 

Since the announcement of the DELL buyout, almost every week I have been writing the weekly covered calls. I'll likely get called out this week, especially considering the ex-dividend date is Wednesday. But that is ok, I am ready to close out at 14.50 and move on to the next opportunity.

[fareastwarriors]

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/obligations-and-motivations-in-the-battle-for-dell/

 

 

Obligations and Motivations in the Battle for Dell

 

[fareastwarriors]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/is-the-dell-stub-the-right-investment-for-you-real-m-a.html

 

 

Is the Dell Stub the Right Investment for You?

[Guest valueInv]

Funny, Dell's own view of their margin of safety is different from that of value investors'  ;):

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323501004578390692268605644.html

 

Yeah, I know they're BSing.  :P

[Guest valueInv]

That trickle is growing:

 

http://gigaom.com/2013/04/12/cloudflare-is-trying-to-fight-ddos-attacks-by-designing-its-own-gear/

[Parsad]

Blackstone pulls bid:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/blackstone-said-to-pull-out-of-dell-bid-on-plummeting-pc-sales.html

 

Cheers!

 

[Guest valueInv]

Funny, no one seems to post on Dell anymore.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/blackstone-s-johnson-said-to-sour-on-dell-bid-he-helped-conceive.html

 

What happened to the margin of safety?

[compoundinglife]

Funny, no one seems to post on Dell anymore.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/blackstone-s-johnson-said-to-sour-on-dell-bid-he-helped-conceive.html

 

What happened to the margin of safety?

 

I felt like there was an MOS at $9, sold it when it went over $13. It's more of an arb now. $13.40 for something that might fetch 13.65. The questions are how much time is involved, can Icahn drag it out and will MD's backers bail if he does. If that happens maybe it will go back to $9 and I can look at it again.

[Parsad]

Funny, no one seems to post on Dell anymore.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/blackstone-s-johnson-said-to-sour-on-dell-bid-he-helped-conceive.html

 

What happened to the margin of safety?

 

They are busy posting on Apple, since it has become the bigger bargain.  Now that some of the previous bulls on Apple are getting annoyed and bearish, I suspect it will have a similar upturn at some point. 

 

The market and those investors have come to realize that Apple will not be the company it was under Steve Jobs, and eventually they will also come to the conclusion that perhaps it is still a good company without him.  Not great, but good without Jobs!  In the meantime, many of them are selling, and I'm happy to buy some.  Cheers!

[txlaw]

Funny, no one seems to post on Dell anymore.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/blackstone-s-johnson-said-to-sour-on-dell-bid-he-helped-conceive.html

 

What happened to the margin of safety?

 

I felt like there was an MOS at $9, sold it when it went over $13. It's more of an arb now. $13.40 for something that might fetch 13.65. The questions are how much time is involved, can Icahn drag it out and will MD's backers bail if he does. If that happens maybe it will go back to $9 and I can look at it again.

 

Yeah, DELL as an investment is pretty much over, so most of us have moved on. 

 

Apparently, valueInv, you have not. ;D

 

But if you would like to see some more interesting developments related to DELL, at least on the cloud hardware front:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-18/ibm-said-to-be-in-talks-to-sell-low-end-server-unit-to-lenovo.html

http://gigaom.com/2013/04/02/nebula-launches-its-openstack-system/

http://gigaom.com/2013/04/17/why-openstack-is-like-kale-its-cheap-easy-to-source-and-good-for-you/

[txlaw]

What happened to the margin of safety?

 

Btw, it's worth noting that there's a world of difference between a publicly traded DELL and a privately held DELL that's levered up to the hilt, which is what the PE guys are coonsidering.

[Guest valueInv]

Funny, no one seems to post on Dell anymore.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/blackstone-s-johnson-said-to-sour-on-dell-bid-he-helped-conceive.html

 

What happened to the margin of safety?

 

I felt like there was an MOS at $9, sold it when it went over $13. It's more of an arb now. $13.40 for something that might fetch 13.65. The questions are how much time is involved, can Icahn drag it out and will MD's backers bail if he does. If that happens maybe it will go back to $9 and I can look at it again.

 

Yeah, DELL as an investment is pretty much over, so most of us have moved on. 

 

Apparently, valueInv, you have not. ;D

 

But if you would like to see some more interesting developments related to DELL, at least on the cloud hardware front:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-18/ibm-said-to-be-in-talks-to-sell-low-end-server-unit-to-lenovo.html

 

So IBM decided that the server business is no longer attractive and is looking to sell to the company that is beating the socks off Dell in the client business.

 

http://gigaom.com/2013/04/02/nebula-launches-its-openstack-system/

http://gigaom.com/2013/04/17/why-openstack-is-like-kale-its-cheap-easy-to-source-and-good-for-you/

 

So Dell's competitors are taking the lead in developing Openstack.

 

The reason why I have not moved on is Dell is because I am still interest in the thesis. I am interested in the business.

 

Your thesis:

 

1, Michael Dell is a genius

2, Dell management is honest

3, They're doing a great job with their acquisitions and their turnaround strategy

4, The client business doesn't matter

 

My thesis:

 

1, The server business is an stable as people make it out to be

2, I don't see them doing much with the turnaround

3, Dell management hasn't been honest in the past.

 

Blackstone looked at Dell's books using a Dell insider. They looked at internal information to which you and I don't have access to and decided:

1, The turnaround hasn't been progressing  as well as management has been saying

2, Management's projections are way too optimistic

3, The faster decline in the PC business is going to change Dell's ability to turn around.

 

Does that sum it up?

 

[VAL9000]

I think what sums it up is the absolute killing that a number of other people made on Dell thanks to txlaw's analysis and insights.

 

You're over there trying to give us a cause of death on a carcass while we're over here enjoying our steak.

 

[bennycx]

I think my thesis at that time was that Dell's business is unpredictable and partially lousy, but at $9 I was willing to gamble that the margin of safety was so big and that the decline in cash flow would not be as quick since the server business was relatively stable. I was not projecting sustainability or growth of the server business in the long future at all.

[compoundinglife]

But if you would like to see some more interesting developments related to DELL, at least on the cloud hardware front:

 

http://gigaom.com/2013/04/02/nebula-launches-its-openstack-system/

 

I might work there ;)

 

 

[Guest valueInv]

I think what sums it up is the absolute killing that a number of other people made on Dell thanks to txlaw's analysis and insights.

 

You're over there trying to give us a cause of death on a carcass while we're over here enjoying our steak.

 

Beautiful words. I have a bias - I am interested in business analysis. I see investment as a product of that.

[Guest valueInv]

But if you would like to see some more interesting developments related to DELL, at least on the cloud hardware front:

 

http://gigaom.com/2013/04/02/nebula-launches-its-openstack-system/

 

I might work there ;)

You guys compete with Dell? What is Dell's role in the Openstack ecosystem?

 

Do tell.

[compoundinglife]

But if you would like to see some more interesting developments related to DELL, at least on the cloud hardware front:

 

http://gigaom.com/2013/04/02/nebula-launches-its-openstack-system/

 

I might work there ;)

You guys compete with Dell? What is Dell's role in the Openstack ecosystem?

 

Do tell.

 

Going to refrain from commenting on work related stuff for now. But feel free to ping me via PM.

[boilermaker75]

 

They are busy posting on Apple, since it has become the bigger bargain.  Now that some of the previous bulls on Apple are getting annoyed and bearish, I suspect it will have a similar upturn at some point. 

 

The market and those investors have come to realize that Apple will not be the company it was under Steve Jobs, and eventually they will also come to the conclusion that perhaps it is still a good company without him.  Not great, but good without Jobs!  In the meantime, many of them are selling, and I'm happy to buy some.  Cheers!

 

I think AAPL is a much better deal here than DELL was. So hopefully because AAPL's EV  is more than 10 times larger than DELL's, the same thing won't happen to AAPL's shareholders as DELL's!

[alwaysinvert]

Of some relevance to this thread and lots of other interesting stuff:

 

http://forbesindia.com/article/cross-border/billionaire-investor-carl-icahns-tale-of-aggression/35055/0#ixzz2Qyv4f03v

[txlaw]

Your thesis:

 

1, Michael Dell is a genius

2, Dell management is honest

3, They're doing a great job with their acquisitions and their turnaround strategy

4, The client business doesn't matter

 

This is a wildly inaccurate depiction of my thesis, but I suppose if it makes you feel good about your self . .  .