Palantir Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 And I'm optimistic that IBM's cloud infrastructure / platform services will also be touted/marketed by AAPL in this partnership. Why are you optimistic about this? Given that Apple themselves use AMZN and MSFT as their backend. I really doubt Apple will ever tout IBM's product, this is merely another distribution chain for AAPL. This is very good for Apple. For IBM....less certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 And I'm optimistic that IBM's cloud infrastructure / platform services will also be touted/marketed by AAPL in this partnership. Why are you optimistic about this? Given that Apple themselves use AMZN and MSFT as their backend. I really doubt Apple will ever tout IBM's product, this is merely another distribution chain for AAPL. This is very good for Apple. For IBM....less certain. I don't think there would be much value for IBM even if AAPL did tout IBM's services. IBM has much stronger/deeper relationships with enterprises than AAPL will ever have (or even wants). But Palantir, I think you are misreading the value to IBM. IBM is a software and services company. They add value to the 3rd party hardware they sell. I don't know that this deal adds material revenue but it does strengthen IBM's moat and supports Ginni's hybrid cloud and mobile strategy. Actually, I think you are underestimating the value to AAPL too. IBM isn't just a distribution channel. By adding enterprise software and services, IBM will create demand that wouldn't otherwise exist. This could be a game changer for both companies. I am still trying to accumulate IBM shares so I wasn't happy to see this news. Hopefully IBM has one last stinky quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 That is correct in my mind. IBM wants to be the primary integrator of technology for the F1000. It already is in many cases. The "bring your own device" issue has been creating havoc for large enterprise IT with the growth of the iPad and the iPhone. Enterprise IT worries about 1) security - can I guarantee security? 2) support - can I support this technology? Then they start thinking about products - who has the best product? But I won't deploy anything on an enterprise scale unless I can Secure and Support the new technology. But employees have created a nightmare for enterprise IT with BYOD. The IBM announcement goes a long way to removing those issues. I think this is very good for Apple, and should be good for IBM, since their customers are likely demanding that IBM react and help them in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 And I'm optimistic that IBM's cloud infrastructure / platform services will also be touted/marketed by AAPL in this partnership. Why are you optimistic about this? Given that Apple themselves use AMZN and MSFT as their backend. I really doubt Apple will ever tout IBM's product, this is merely another distribution chain for AAPL. This is very good for Apple. For IBM....less certain. Because both AMZN and MSFT are competing very hard with AAPL in ways that could be very value-destroying to AAPL's biz. IBM, on the other hand, can be strategically aligned with AAPL in a way most other big tech can't. It's very true that AAPL and IBM's portfolios fit together like a puzzle piece. Computing device hardware and design --> AAPL Cloud infrastructure services --> IBM IoT hardware/sensor design --> AAPL IoT platforms and data crunching services --> IBM Search/AR/AI interface design --> AAPL Search/AR/AI back-end --> IBM I could go on, but you can see that they can benefit from each other's expertise immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 - Why doesn't Apple use IBM's cloud infrastructure services then? Instead it uses Amazon - IoT doesn't exist yet. - IBM has no search back end, and instead it uses MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 - Why doesn't Apple use IBM's cloud infrastructure services then? Instead it uses Amazon Why wouldn't AAPL switch to IBM and encourage developers to start using IBM's services? - IoT doesn't exist yet. It's being built. All the recent moves by all the big tech players confirm this. - IBM has no search back end, and instead it uses MS. Search / AI / AR --> Watson Imagine if AAPL's AI service (Siri) were to be developed in conjunction with IBM's Watson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Imagine if AAPL's AI service (Siri) were to be developed in conjunction with IBM's Watson. That would be great for both companies, and I expect it to happen to some level. It might take too much resources at present time to have the full Watson engine being hit tens of millions of times each day by the iOS installed base, but maybe a subset of its capabilities could be incorporated into Siri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 - Why doesn't Apple use IBM's cloud infrastructure services then? Instead it uses Amazon Why wouldn't AAPL switch to IBM and encourage developers to start using IBM's services? - IoT doesn't exist yet. It's being built. All the recent moves by all the big tech players confirm this. - IBM has no search back end, and instead it uses MS. Search / AI / AR --> Watson Imagine if AAPL's AI service (Siri) were to be developed in conjunction with IBM's Watson. - Why hasn't AAPL started using IBM's cloud infrastructure backend then? - I guess we'll see when we get there. - Watson is not search, at this point Watson is a curiosity looking for a problem. Bing is Apple's backend for search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 - Watson is not search, at this point Watson is a curiosity looking for a problem. Bing is Apple's backend for search. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Watson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 - Watson is not search, at this point Watson is a curiosity looking for a problem. Bing is Apple's backend for search. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Watson http://www.bing.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 - Watson is not search, at this point Watson is a curiosity looking for a problem. Bing is Apple's backend for search. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Watson http://www.bing.com/ Not so good at answering questions posed in natural language, which is what could make Siri much more useful than just a voice-to-text input field for a regular web search. Watson could easily be integrated with a web search engine like Bing or Google, and the combination would be better than just the web search alone. This is not even conjecture; Siri is already attempting to do just that, it just isn't good enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 - Why hasn't AAPL started using IBM's cloud infrastructure backend then? Who's to say they won't going forward? That's why I said, "I'm optimistic . . . ." and not that they are already doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 - Watson is not search, at this point Watson is a curiosity looking for a problem. Bing is Apple's backend for search. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Watson That's why I said, "Search / AI / AR." Because, IMO, it all converges going forward. Search as we know it becomes obsolete when you start have a robust "artificially intelligent computer system capable of answering questions posed in natural language." Google Now (with the catch-phrase "OK, Google") is the starting implementation for Google. Cortana is MSFT's recognition of the convergence as well. Bing and Cortana will converge at some point. Skate to where the puck is going . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 "I am still trying to accumulate IBM shares so I wasn't happy to see this news. Hopefully IBM has one last stinky quarter." Agreed. I think we may get our wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 And I'm optimistic that IBM's cloud infrastructure / platform services will also be touted/marketed by AAPL in this partnership. I am still trying to accumulate IBM shares so I wasn't happy to see this news. Hopefully IBM has one last stinky quarter. How much are you running? The daily liquidity is ~$1.5B! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 How much are you running? The daily liquidity is ~$1.5B! The bottleneck is probably on the other side; He could be waiting for more money to come in to then invest and doesn't want the price to run up in the meanwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I'm hoping for a great quarter, just waiting for the right time to short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I'm hoping for a great quarter, just waiting for the right time to short. Enlighten us, what is your thesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I have stated it many times on this forum. Hope you are enlightened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I haven't seen a post where you lay out the case for shorting the stock sorry. Imagine that they lost half their hardware and services profit and a quarter of their software profit over 5 years after hitting $20/share next year. That's over 60% left or $12-12.5/share in 2020. Value that at 8 times earnings given that they also hold brand value, patents, ... That's not far from $100/share. So you short today and barely get a 50% return over 6 years if profit suddenly starts dropping 10%+/year on average. Hell, value it at 5 times earnings and some for whatever value is left, your return would be far from great. Not to mention dividends, cost of shorting, ... The stock could go to $300 and shorting wouldn't make sense as a stand alone bet. Tell me how that is an attractive short and good bet giving IBM's historic high levels of return that point to a decent moat? And then some people would call me nuts for shorting WDAY. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I am not shorting today, and not below 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I am not shorting today, and not below 200. I know but I'm trying to make a point. Even if it traded at $300 or 15 times next year's earnings, how attractive would it be? Wouldn't you agree there are far better shorting candidates out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 If you know any other good shorts, I am all ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 How much are you running? The daily liquidity is ~$1.5B! The bottleneck is probably on the other side; He could be waiting for more money to come in to then invest and doesn't want the price to run up in the meanwhile... Strategic: I like to accumulate stocks with negative momentum over a period of time. Value investors usually buy too soon and sell too soon, so I try to be patient. I've been building my position for the past year. Tactical: I'm fully invested so I need to find something to sell whenever I add IBM. Unfortunately, the last time it was in my buying range ($180) I was also accumulating something else. By the time I freed up enough capital, IBM had moved on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 If you know any other good shorts, I am all ears. Well you have market darlings like CRM and WDAY that are trading at 7-8x and 25+ times revenue with low teens and negative operating margins. Their growth is slowing down and CRM is even at the point of low mid 20's internal growth. There are others but CRM's and WDAY's market cap is likely too high to ever be acquired. Have a look at the CRM topic for more. IBM will have it's moment like MSFT last year and those market darlings are in for some serious pain sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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