sleepydragon Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 IBM doesnt need any revenue growth. The long term IT contracts it has signed will generate enough free cash flow to pay dividends and buy back all its shares in 40 years. But, if its current strategy works, it may do wonders to the growth rate. So down side is 0+dividend rate, upside is at least double. It can hardly go wrong unless suddenly ibm clients dont want ibm to support their IT anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardGibbons Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 Tilson is an unqualified douche. If you call one of Buffett's big investments a "value trap" with such high conviction and so publicly, without prefacing your opinion by acknowledging he can buy you 100 times over, you are behaving as a douche and people are going to mock you as such. What the heck? You're criticizing someone for posting an opinion about a stock without referencing the net worth of one of the investors in the stock? This is bizarre to me. The net worth of people who own a stock is completely irrelevant to my investment thesis in any stock. FYI, Warren Buffett has a higher net worth than me. (I'm trying to avoid having this comment written off immediately because I didn't make that that clear.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 I didn't intend to refer to net worth. Rather AUM or money under management as a more "interesting" way to point out that one is a far superior (and humble) investor and the inferior guy could maybe acknowledge that before offering his opinion on TV is a somewhat brusque and insulting manner. They are, after all, professional money managers. I suppose at least he's willing to share his opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 Isn't Tilson's track record pretty middling? I believe he's under performed the market since inception of Kase and only moderately outperformed since inception with T2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 These guys pull rabbits out of their hats continually and we just bitch about their failures....I don't get it. +1! The other issue is that they are being compared to the "greatest investor of all-time!" Not each other, not against their respective indices, but against Buffett! Sidney Crosby is arguably the greatest hockey player of his generation, but he's not going to come anywhere near Wayne Gretzky's points or scoring numbers. Does that make Crosby a failure, or that Crosby simply doesn't have the same skill-set as Gretzky? Cheers! Well I dont know about Sidney Crosby being the greatest hockey player of his generation but I think thats beyond the scope of the tread....lol ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 IBM Is Counting on Its Bet on Watson, and Paying Big Money for It http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/technology/ibm-is-counting-on-its-bet-on-watson-and-paying-big-money-for-it.html?ref=business&_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KinAlberta Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 I've long thought that IBM might be a takeover target of Apple. Of course, I'm often wrong. :-) Anyway, small issue but interesting... (May be slightly favourable news for Berkshire Hathaway regarding its holdings of Apple.) IBM Shocker: Switching to Apple Inc. (AAPL) Mac PCs Saves a Lot of Money IBM says it’s saving up to $543 pre computer by ditching Windows PCs for Macs By Brad Moon, InvestorPlace Contributor | Oct 24, 2016, http://investorplace.com/2016/10/ibm-apple-inc-aapl-mac-pcs-saves-money/#.WBoRhHcZNR4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 I've long thought that IBM might be a takeover target of Apple. Of course, I'm often wrong. :-) Anyway, small issue but interesting... (May be slightly favourable news for Berkshire Hathaway regarding its holdings of Apple.) IBM Shocker: Switching to Apple Inc. (AAPL) Mac PCs Saves a Lot of Money IBM says it’s saving up to $543 pre computer by ditching Windows PCs for Macs By Brad Moon, InvestorPlace Contributor | Oct 24, 2016, http://investorplace.com/2016/10/ibm-apple-inc-aapl-mac-pcs-saves-money/#.WBoRhHcZNR4 You mind reader you... I don't know IBM well enough to even speculate whether it'd be a good fit (maybe some of the really knowledgable guys here could comment?) (I bought AAPL pre split sub $400 & added at $90 post split) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Labor Group Gets IBM’s Watson to Help Walmart Workers http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-14/group-enlists-ibm-s-watson-to-answer-walmart-workers-questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I just realized Rometty will turn 60 in July this year. It seems 60 is the official retirement age for IBM CEOs. The previous CEO left at 60. Is it wishful thinking that she may announce her retirement this year? Or maybe somone can bring it up in annual meeting in April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 I just realized Rometty will turn 60 in July this year. It seems 60 is the official retirement age for IBM CEOs. The previous CEO left at 60. Is it wishful thinking that she may announce her retirement this year? Or maybe somone can bring it up in annual meeting in April? It will be great for the stock if Rometty retire this year. But who would be the new CEO? It seems all the senior management are at least 57 years old. So if she does retire, it's likely to be someone from outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Maybe there's a Satya Nadella somewhere in the vast Big Blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/2017021311768/ibm-chief-defends-trump-administration-advisory-role.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/04/warren-buffett-has-revalued-ibm-downward-cites-big-strong-competitors.html Warren Buffett has sold IBM shares, and 'revalued' tech icon downward, cites 'big strong competitors' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 About time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 I sold a few days ago too :) half I made about 8%, the other half I bought at $160. so total I made about 4% +dividends. tiny after so long time but I am glad I got out not losing money. The CEO shall be replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 IBM and Kraft are two large purchases by Buffett that have not worked out. Nice to know he is human after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Txvestor Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Add Tesco to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Poor Whitney Tilson, I don't think anyone will be tipping their hat to him even when it looks like he has been proven right. Here's the quote in full from Buffett. "I don't value IBM the same way that I did 6 years ago when I started buying... I've revalued it somewhat downward," Buffett told CNBC. "When it got above $180 we actually sold a reasonable amount of stock." "I think if you look back at what they were projecting and how they thought the business would develop I would say what they've run into is some pretty tough competitors," Buffett said. "IBM is a big strong company, but they've got big strong competitors too." The interesting bit is that he's basically set a price target, IBM is not worth more than $180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 IBM and Kraft are two large purchases by Buffett that have not worked out. Nice to know he is human after all. Kraft became KHC so actually quite a good deal when they acquired Heinz, but very distinct from IBM since it wasn't open market buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Poor Whitney Tilson, I don't think anyone will be tipping their hat to him even when it looks like he has been proven right. Why not? The guy was right. He was dissed on this board and elsewhere. Will these people now come out and say that they were wrong? Somehow I doubt it. Some highly respected CoBF posters made quite convincing bullish arguments for IBM on this board. Do they still believe it's a good long term investment? Were the arguments (subconsciously) influenced by Buffett's position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 IBM and Kraft are two large purchases by Buffett that have not worked out. Nice to know he is human after all. Kraft became KHC so actually quite a good deal when they acquired Heinz, but very distinct from IBM since it wasn't open market buying. I think he meant Buffett and Kraft, Round 1 - a few years prior to Round 2 (Round 2 being 3G/KHC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Some highly respected CoBF posters made quite convincing bullish arguments for IBM on this board. Do they still believe it's a good long term investment? I sold out in early 2016 (at a big loss). I just couldn't get any confidence from the CFO that they could or would stabilize the core business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Some highly respected CoBF posters made quite convincing bullish arguments for IBM on this board. Do they still believe it's a good long term investment? I sold out in early 2016 (at a big loss). I just couldn't get any confidence from the CFO that they could or would stabilize the core business. Thanks for update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Some highly respected CoBF posters made quite convincing bullish arguments for IBM on this board. Do they still believe it's a good long term investment? Were the arguments (subconsciously) influenced by Buffett's position? I sold out in mid 2016 at break even. The business deteriorated more than what I was expecting so my estimate of IV went down. I estimated IV to be a tad above $200 per share in 2013 and expected it to grow at a modest pace annually. So I bought it when was first available at about $150. My estimate of how the business would progress turned out to be wrong and my IV estimate went down as well. When there did not seem to be much margin of safety I sold. I was conscious of the anchoring bias and I like to think that selling at break even is not due to that but who knows. Buffett's investment is quite consciously an important factor in my purchase primarily because it means that blow up risk is likely low. There is no reason to ignore such an important data point. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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