"Macro" Musings

[rb]

Yea the megaphone of the US election is pretty much drowning a pretty much everything including macro. But also weirdly enough there's not much macro stuff happening either way. This seem to be coasting on auto pilot for now.

[SmallCap]

Amusing to see our macro threads have gone dead.  Must mean the crash is finally coming ;)

 

Until after the US election, macro is just politics now.

 

So your saying that after 6 months of pointlessly arguing about the election,

in a few more weeks we can go back to pointlessly arguing about macro economics.

 

Yay, I'm in!

Anything is better then this election.

[rb]

Of course you're in. Everyone's in. Pointlessly arguing about the election is like a bar fight. Pointlessly arguing about macro economics is like cocktail hour at the club. A much more dignified and pleasurable affair :).

[stahleyp]

For what it's worth from late 2012-2015 the topic had about 110 pages of posts.  In 2016 it had about 1. In 2017 and so far this year, it has zero. Though perhaps a lot of that moved into another thread.

[Broeb22]

https://www.broyhillasset.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/The-Broyhill-Letter-2020.08-FINAL.pdf

 

Am I the only one who finds it ironic that a manager who earned roughly 0% returns (roughly b/c he doesn't explicitly disclose them) despite significantly increasing his exposure while the crisis was happening is talking about the Dunning-Kruger effect in reference to OTHER people?

 

There is a lot of cognitive dissonance in here, since we're all trying to impress each other with all the obscure cognitive biases and big words we can conjure.

 

 

[gary17]

have people been paying some attention to the defaults of state-owned enterprises in China?

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/china-braces-for-more-bond-defaults-among-state-firms-soes-in-2021.html

[SharperDingaan]

China is communist. State-owned enterprises exist to further the state interest, not the investors.

An investor buys a lottery ticket to benefit from expansions, and shorts the market to benefit from contractions. Gross market gains > write-offs/dilutions, generating a nice ROI. Nothing wrong in that, but a different approach.

 

SD

 

[Spekulatius]

China is communist. State-owned enterprises exist to further the state interest, not the investors.

An investor buys a lottery ticket to benefit from expansions, and shorts the market to benefit from contractions. Gross market gains > write-offs/dilutions, generating a nice ROI. Nothing wrong in that, but a different approach.

 

SD

 

China isn‘t really communist any more, it is just run by a party that used to be communist decades ago. The state owned companies are kind of hybrid between both worlds and a left over from communism. It’s not where the puck is going. In some ways China has a brutal Manchester capitalism.