Palantir Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Please, never use stop orders.. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Please, never use stop orders.. Why? Can't speak for writser but I don't like them because once the stock hits your stop it becomes a market order. So you are selling at the market price after the stop has been reached. You could end up selling for much less than you anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'll add my experience on stop orders. This was when I was getting my investment experience, I was following a subscription, he liked to used 15% trail stops. I had a position in AINV, on 4/21/2005, the position went down about 8-10% and closed flat (murky on the details). I was in class at the time, but the order became live. I'm sure the MM's saw that many orders at that figure and picked us (the people that subscribed and had the 15% trail stops). It was an expensive lesson and hope that by writing about it in a forum, others don't lose their positions because of it. In general, keep a mental stop on buys and sells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Please, never use stop orders.. Why? Can't speak for writser but I don't like them because once the stock hits your stop it becomes a market order. So you are selling at the market price after the stop has been reached. You could end up selling for much less than you anticipated. This. If a random idiot sells 10 million shares market or a mini-flash crash happens or somebody sells some shares at a ridiculous price 10 seconds after the opening when the book is still illiquid your order is triggered and you join the madness, selling your shares at any available price. Never use market orders, you are setting yourself up to be exploited. If someone does something stupid you should make money instead of burning it. I.e. you should have a buy order at 46, not a sell order. Also your logic "it's now at 50 but if it goes to 46 I sell and buy back at 42" - I would say that has nothing to do with sound value investing. If your thesis is correct you should buy more if the stock goes down, sell if it goes up. Not the other way around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 I don't have extra cash, what am I supposed to buy it with if it goes down substantially? Furthermore, why take an unnecessary hit on a stock that's seeing strong negative momentum? Valuation is important, it is not everything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I don't have extra cash, what am I supposed to buy it with if it goes down substantially? Furthermore, why take an unnecessary hit on a stock that's seeing strong negative momentum? Valuation is important, it is not everything though. I've never seen Buffett sell Coca Cola because it had "strong negative momentum" and I don't think he would condone it (I've also never seen Buffett not having extra cash :) ). Anyway, I'm no expert on technical analysis, don't take my advice too serious. I work in the HFT business though, and I'm convinced that you should never use market orders. If you want to cut your losses, do it manually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I don't have extra cash, what am I supposed to buy it with if it goes down substantially? Furthermore, why take an unnecessary hit on a stock that's seeing strong negative momentum? Valuation is important, it is not everything though. With regards to cash, if I am 100% invested and something goes down to a very attractive price, I will *consider* purchasing it on margin as long as I am comfortable that my cash flow from my day job or other sources will pay of the margin commitment very quickly, like 30 days or less. I also try to keep the % very low. This of course means that I can't bet the farm on a price drop but it allows me to lower my cost basis at the price of 30 days or less of interest. This is not a suggestion or recommendation, just something I have done. I don't do it frequently, I feel its a responsible use of debt and it has allowed me to capitalize on some short lived price drops. Although most of the time by the time I have paid down the margin the stock is still around my cost basis or less :) But sometimes the prices don't stay cheap for very long. As for taking an unnecessary hit on the downward momentum, that is just not the framework I work within. If I still like it, thesis is still intact and its down I will buy when possible. Otherwise I just go out for a bike ride or go grab a beer with a friend. I don't think I am able to out trade the market, in my taxable account the tax paperwork is a headache and I don't believe it will provide superior returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 You can/should use a limit order instead of a market order. Even Jim Cramer recommends this (but that's because he knows what he is talking about). So instead of using a stop market order, make a stop limit order that triggers at 46 and the limit order should be for something less than 46... e.g. 45.80. If you use market orders, sometimes you could get filled at a terrible price... e.g. a few dollars offer the market price. It's one of the remaining loopholes where market makers (or other financial players) are allowed to screw retail investors. If you read The Snowball, you can see that these kinds of things were happening when Warren Buffett was working as a stockbroker and he did not agree with the practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Thanks for the inputs, I switched it to a Stop Limit. The reason I am uncomfortable with holding in face of downward momentum is basically because I am a beginner to this field (25 yo) , and don't have the requisite conviction to stick with my analysis with the expectation that it will eventually recover. That and since this account is a nontaxable Roth IRA, I figure, if the stock drops for random things like missed earnings etc, I'd be able to limit my downside by exiting via a stop, and rebuying at a lower price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Thanks for the inputs, I switched it to a Stop Limit. The reason I am uncomfortable with holding in face of downward momentum is basically because I am a beginner to this field (25 yo) , and don't have the requisite conviction to stick with my analysis with the expectation that it will eventually recover. That and since this account is a nontaxable Roth IRA, I figure, if the stock drops for random things like missed earnings etc, I'd be able to limit my downside by exiting via a stop, and rebuying at a lower price. Palantir, I wish I was reading boards + getting tips like those on this board (from the others not me) when I was 25. I think you will do real well. By the way I don t think that uncomfortable feeling ever goes away, especially if you look at your investment as a piece of paper and not a small part of a real business. Its exciting to check stock prices every day, even though I know its not good for me psychologically I do it anyways. I think of my investments as a small part of a real business so that I don t let Mr Market make me do something stupid like sell when I should be buying and vice versa. Despite this you re still going to make mistakes, that's just the way it is. I try to keep cash on hand and allow myself to be able to buy more if opportunity presents itself. If you re just starting the good thing is that you re going to have money coming in all the time (your savings) and more importantly you can make mistakes. I heard a funny line apparently from WEB: if you want to shoot a big fast elephant, you should always carry a loaded gun. re stop losses- it may be naive, but can the trading desks see your stop losses? I always assumed they could + how it can be an opportunity for them to take advantage of you...for the same reason why I don t often put in a market orders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Thanks for the inputs, I switched it to a Stop Limit. The reason I am uncomfortable with holding in face of downward momentum is basically because I am a beginner to this field (25 yo) , and don't have the requisite conviction to stick with my analysis with the expectation that it will eventually recover. That and since this account is a nontaxable Roth IRA, I figure, if the stock drops for random things like missed earnings etc, I'd be able to limit my downside by exiting via a stop, and rebuying at a lower price. As Biaggio said you are on the right track. I am 35 and started when I was 31, I wish I started when I was 25. I did not have conviction on any of my picks until at least a year or two in. One of the BRK meetings I attended Charlie Munger said something to the tune of (I am paraphrasing here from memory) Investing like anything else takes practice and you will make mistakes, its better to start making those mistakes and learning them from them now. If anyone has an exact quote of that, I think it was from the 2009 or 2010 meeting. The point I am trying to make is that you are young, you have time to make mistakes, learn from them AND recover from them. So try not to worry too much about it. As for limiting the downside, do what you feel comfortable doing but be honest with yourself. If you think the stop limit strategy works then try it, but make sure to weigh your results including taxes, fees etc... against just holding the stock. Too many people do things like that without ever comparing them to the alternative and assume they are better off. I am a big fan of looking at the decisions I made and figuring out if it they were good decisions, although figuring that out can be tough too. Also keep in mind that if the stock is truly undervalued and you think it will do well then you risk missing the upside if you are jumping in and out because mentally (for most people) its harder to buy back in if there was a run up and you missed it. As Buffett and Munger say "Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style". On the note of unrealized downside when Munger was asked how many times he was worried about big drops in the value of BRK: “Zero. This is the third time Warren and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it’s in the nature of long term shareholding of the normal vicissitudes, of worldly outcomes, of markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stocks go down by say 50%. In fact you can argue that if you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Thanks for the inputs, I switched it to a Stop Limit. The reason I am uncomfortable with holding in face of downward momentum is basically because I am a beginner to this field (25 yo) , and don't have the requisite conviction to stick with my analysis with the expectation that it will eventually recover. That and since this account is a nontaxable Roth IRA, I figure, if the stock drops for random things like missed earnings etc, I'd be able to limit my downside by exiting via a stop, and rebuying at a lower price. As Biaggio said you are on the right track. I am 35 and started when I was 31, I wish I started when I was 25. I did not have conviction on any of my picks until at least a year or two in. One of the BRK meetings I attended Charlie Munger said something to the tune of (I am paraphrasing here from memory) Investing like anything else takes practice and you will make mistakes, its better to start making those mistakes and learning them from them now. If anyone has an exact quote of that, I think it was from the 2009 or 2010 meeting. The point I am trying to make is that you are young, you have time to make mistakes, learn from them AND recover from them. So try not to worry too much about it. As for limiting the downside, do what you feel comfortable doing but be honest with yourself. If you think the stop limit strategy works then try it, but make sure to weigh your results including taxes, fees etc... against just holding the stock. Too many people do things like that without ever comparing them to the alternative and assume they are better off. I am a big fan of looking at the decisions I made and figuring out if it they were good decisions, although figuring that out can be tough too. Also keep in mind that if the stock is truly undervalued and you think it will do well then you risk missing the upside if you are jumping in and out because mentally (for most people) its harder to buy back in if there was a run up and you missed it. As Buffett and Munger say "Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style". On the note of unrealized downside when Munger was asked how many times he was worried about big drops in the value of BRK: “Zero. This is the third time Warren and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it’s in the nature of long term shareholding of the normal vicissitudes, of worldly outcomes, of markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stocks go down by say 50%. In fact you can argue that if you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.” I agree with everything above. I just want to add another reason to watch your investments and manually make the buy/sell decisions yourself rather than put them on autopilot, is to force yourself to re-evaluate the situation. You see a stock drop in price, you don't want to mindlessly sell it, you want to understand why it dropped. Has something changed? Does your original assessment of it remain valid? Do you need to sell it, do nothing, or buy more? These aren't things you can predict ahead of time. To successfully use a stop strategy like you were describing (sell at 46, buy back at 42) you would have to have a good idea in advance how much it will drop, so that you can sell early and buy it back. There is no way to really know those things. What if it is only some market fluctuation that brings it to $45.90, triggering your stop, then shoots back up to $50+? You sold your shares at a loss for no good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Appreciate the advice from all. I definitely need to focus on thinking about my holdings as businesses rather than watching them go up and down..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 re stop losses- it may be naive, but can the trading desks see your stop losses? I always assumed they could + how it can be an opportunity for them to take advantage of you...for the same reason why I don t often put in a market orders. AFAIK you can't see them on exchange - they would be too easy to exploit. Suppose you know there's a big stop loss order @ $20 and the stock is trading around $20.01. You could enter a massive buy limit order @ 19$ (far behind the market), then a massive sell order @ $19.01. You sell a shitload of shares at an average price of, let's say, $19.50. Then the stop loss gets triggered, it sells shares to the best bid in the market (which is your $19.00 because you sold everything else). You buy back all your shares and make 0.50$ / share. Brokers can do these tricks because they know the stop losses of their clients - I'm guessing that was the practise WEB didn't agree with. But the same disaster will happen if somebody makes a "fat finger trade" and you have a stop loss order in the market. Example: stock trading @ $200, idiot sells a million shares @ $20 (forgets one zero). A massive downtick ensues, he gets the stock down to $191.21 and your stop loss gets triggered EXACTLY at that level, the lowest price the idiot sold at. Orders are atomic operations, i.e. first the idiot sells ALL his shares, brings down the price and immediately after that all stop losses are triggered. At that time the best bid is $191.21 and you sell "market" (without regard for price) at that level. A similar thing happened on black friday. Portfolio insurance was the hot thing back then, implemented by going long S&P futures with a stop loss order. What happens? On monday there is some panic, downticks, the future book is illiquid. A few stop losses get triggered. Massive selloff ensues. Even more stop losses get triggered. More selling. etc. etc. Turned out that the portfolio "insurance" made sure that you sold your future at the worst level in several months. Not too mention that some smart traders / brokers / market makers probably exploited this: just start selling futures like a madmen, wait for the stop loss orders to hit the market and buy everything back a couple of points lower. Rinse and repeat, easy money :) Also relatively easy to do in times of panic because at that point in time the order book isn't very liquid. Same thing will happen in stocks during volatile periods (terrorist attacks, earnings releases, flash crashes) and the guy using the market order will always be ****ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Hahaha that's awesome. So if I sell 1 share of AAPL at say 300. That would trigger all the stops in the market? :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Hahaha that's awesome. So if I sell 1 share of AAPL at say 300. That would trigger all the stops in the market? :D Not exactly. My limited understanding is that you would need to sell a large number of shares to do that. If a liquid issue such as apple has bid of 542.60 and ask of 542.70 and you put in limit sell at $300 for 100 shares, your sell order will likely get execute between the bid and the ask. If you did a limit sell in the millions of shares then that could happen. Apple's daily volume is around 23 million. For liquid stocks it takes a lot of volume to move the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 AFAIK you can't see them on exchange - they would be too easy to exploit. Suppose you know there's a big stop loss order @ $20 and the stock is trading around $20.01. You could enter a massive buy limit order @ 19$ (far behind the market), then a massive sell order @ $19.01. You sell a shitload of shares at an average price of, let's say, $19.50. Then the stop loss gets triggered, it sells shares to the best bid in the market (which is your $19.00 because you sold everything else). You buy back all your shares and make 0.50$ / share. Brokers can do these tricks because they know the stop losses of their clients - I'm guessing that was the practise WEB didn't agree with. The practice WEB was against was brokers holding market orders until they had both sides of the trade. Then the broker would fill the opposing sides of a trade and pocket the spread. As far as knowing where stop orders are: A- Some market makers might have access to such information. Generally speaking, in the history of exchanges and market makers, oftentimes the market makers will pay exchanges money in exchange for special advantages over the exchange's other customers. The NYSE specialist system is an example of this (and still is AFAIK). B- Even if they didn't, there are some professional traders out there who will guess and try to trigger stop losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 sorry, what's AFAIK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 sorry, what's AFAIK? It is shorthand for "as far as I know". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like this bad boy has bottomed out at 47/48ish. I suppose it could get lower, but given the rock solid business and strong growth, doesn't seem likely. Hoping it rises back to 60 slowly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Red Hat reports 3Q Earnings results. http://investors.redhat.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=728212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rimm_never_sleeps Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 so it's trading at over 40x earnings? I would rather own orcl. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's trading at 70x earnings, what does that have to do with anything? I thought most investors had moved on from simply dismissing a stock based on its PE ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rimm_never_sleeps Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 what does a 70 p/e have to do with it? lol. you're new at this aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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