Tesla Model S Named Automobile's "Car of the Year"

[Liberty]

Tesla up 26% after hours.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q1-earnings-2013-5

 

Tesla reported adjusted earnings of $0.12 per share, This beat expectations of $0.03 per share.

Sales were up 83% from the last quarter, to $562 million.

This is Tesla's first profitable quarter.

 

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q1-earnings-2013-5#ixzz2Sk9jGbLf

 

Can't feel good right now to be short this stock...

[value-is-what-you-get]

Looks like the naysayers may be proven wrong here.  Now the negative line is oh sure once all the luxury buyers (ERIC et al) have got their Tesla's then sales will dry up - the average Jane will not want to pay a premium for electric.  In my opinion the average Joe who lives anywhere near the free gas provided by solar city will jump at the chance to finance his fuel payments via a slightly higher priced electric.  No fuel price volatility!  and let's not forget the cool factor - envy makes the world go round!

 

[Liberty]

By the time they saturate the market for premium cars (which could take a while), they'll have their third generation model (higher volume, lower cost) ready, so I doubt that's their biggest worry.

[ERICOPOLY]

I wound up changing my options to the Performance model. Fully loaded, every single option.  Might as well do this well if it's going to get done.  Decided to go with paying cash instead of financing it -- keep my debt/income low for when I shop for a home mortgage.

 

Crazy week.  Up 20% in 3 days and now this impulse buy.

[Guest hellsten]

Tesla up 26% after hours.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q1-earnings-2013-5

 

Tesla reported adjusted earnings of $0.12 per share, This beat expectations of $0.03 per share.

Sales were up 83% from the last quarter, to $562 million.

This is Tesla's first profitable quarter.

 

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q1-earnings-2013-5#ixzz2Sk9jGbLf

 

Can't feel good right now to be short this stock...

 

I really like Tesla cars and Elon Musk. I would love to own a Tesla S, but not the stock:

 

Tesla (morningstar data):

P/S 14.5 (or 5.24 if you ask Google Finance)

P/CF -22.5

Market cap 6.4 billion

 

Fiat (morningstar data):

P/S 0.1

P/CF 0.9

Market cap 7.9 billion

 

Fiat is on the verge of creating a globally competitive automotive business. Geographical diversity and potential operating leverage should further reduce the company's dependence on domestic volume. An array of brands, serving multiple segments, with a greater emphasis on premium brands, will reduce reliance on any one vehicle category.

 

Anyway, I hope Elon bankrupts some of the traditional car companies :)

[Guest hellsten]

237 days ago in September 2012:

“It’s doing pretty well actually given that we’re such a huge short position. In fact I think the short position may be as high as one can actually go. They literally hit the ceiling on the short position. The shorts are in it to the hills. I think it is very unwise to be shorting Tesla, it’s very unwise. There is a tsunami of hurt coming for the short.

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2012/09/13/video-elon-musk-tells-fox-business-that-tsunami-of-hurt-coming-for-those-shorting-tesla/

[Edward]

the average Jane will not want to pay a premium for electric.

Actually there is no premium.

 

This car may be 10-20K$ more expensive than the comparable BMW, but you are paying 5-10 times less for fuel (electricity vs gasoline). So do the math :)

[value-is-what-you-get]

the average Jane will not want to pay a premium for electric.

Actually there is no premium.

 

This car may be 10-20K$ more expensive than the comparable BMW, but you are paying 5-10 times less for fuel (electricity vs gasoline). So do the math :)

 

Yes this is the point I was trying to make.  The naysayers are saying this about average Jane.  I agree completely with your statement.

[ERICOPOLY]

the average Jane will not want to pay a premium for electric.

Actually there is no premium.

 

This car may be 10-20K$ more expensive than the comparable BMW, but you are paying 5-10 times less for fuel (electricity vs gasoline). So do the math :)

 

Yes this is the point I was trying to make.  The naysayers are saying this about average Jane.  I agree completely with your statement.

 

Average Jane doesn't buy a Porche, so that business is going bust.

[rkbabang]

I’m wondering about their next model the Model X, which will be marketed to Average Jane (or at least upper middle class Jane).  This market requires consideration of price, resale value, maintenance costs, and total cost of ownership.  Does anyone know what the maintenance requirements of one of Tesla’s vehicles are and what the costs are compared to a gas vehicle which needs (off the top of my head):

 

1) Oil Change every 3-10K

2) Timing Belt/Chain replacement every 60-100K

3) Antifreeze

4) Spark plugs

5) PCV valve

6) Transmission fluid

7) A/C refrigerant

8 ) Fan belts

9) Alternator which will go eventually

10) Water pump which will go eventually

11) Temperature sensors and other sensors which go

12) Battery

13)  Exhaust system (pipes, muffler, catalytic converter)

13) Breaks (fluid, master cylinder, rotors/drums, pads)

14) Tires

15) Etc….?

 

I’m assuming that A/C,  Breaks, and Tires are all the same in the Tesla as any normal vehicle and most of the other systems listed above are non-existent on the Tesla, but what about the other systems (motors, belts, chains, sensors, fluids, batteries, etc) , which are not the same as a normal car?  What are the maintenance requirements?  How long does the massive battery pack last and how much is it to replace?  If it only lasts a certain number of years, and costs a lot to replace, this could kill resale value for instance, even if other maintenance is much less.

 

 

EDIT:  When I say resale value, I'm not talking about after 3 years as much as I'm talking after 10.  I'm the type of person that buys a 2 year old car and drives it for 10 years.  When I do this with a Toyota SUV I still get something for it when it is time for a new one.

[ERICOPOLY]

How long does the massive battery pack last and how much is it to replace?  If it only lasts a certain number of years, and costs a lot to replace, this could kill resale value for instance, even if other maintenance is much less.

 

The claim is 10 years on the battery life.  According to Franz von Holzhausen:

 

 

Of course, they don't warranty it for 10 years so they're not all that confident perhaps in that number.

 

However, once you replace the battery the car is good for another 10 years presumably (if 10 is the number).

 

It's not like you have to worry about how many miles are on the engine though.  So at resale perhaps they ask you how old is the battery?  Instead of what is the milage? 

 

Putting high miles on it shouldn't depreciate it the vehicle in the same way as putting high miles on a gasoline vehicle.

 

[Liberty]

Consumer Reports gave the Model S 99 out of 100, says it's the "best car they've ever tested":

 

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magazine/2013/07/tesla-model-s-review/index.htm

 

http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2013/05/video-the-tesla-model-s-is-our-top-scoring-car.html

[Liberty]

 

I’m assuming that A/C,  Breaks, and Tires are all the same in the Tesla as any normal vehicle and most of the other systems listed above are non-existent on the Tesla, but what about the other systems (motors, belts, chains, sensors, fluids, batteries, etc) , which are not the same as a normal car?  What are the maintenance requirements? 

 

Apart from the tires, almost nothing needs as much maintenance in an EV as in a gas car. The brakes almost don't wear out because most braking is done using regenerative braking, A/C is electric and I'd imagine more reliable (thought maybe not, but not a big deal), and there's pretty much no fluids and such to change. Tesla has even recently made their yearly maintenance checkup optional without any effect on warranty.

 

As for battery lifetime, the battery doesn't stop working after 10 years or whatever, it just doesn't hold as much charge. That's a problem if you travel very far often, but if not, you can probably keep the same battery until the car is old enough you don't want it anymore anyway. Not to mention that in a decade, a new battery pack will probably cost a fraction of what it costs now.

[Edward]

I’m assuming that A/C,  Breaks, and Tires are all the same in the Tesla as any normal vehicle and most of the other systems listed above are non-existent on the Tesla, but what about the other systems (motors, belts, chains, sensors, fluids, batteries, etc) , which are not the same as a normal car?  What are the maintenance requirements?  How long does the massive battery pack last and how much is it to replace?  If it only lasts a certain number of years, and costs a lot to replace, this could kill resale value for instance, even if other maintenance is much less.

A/C,  Breaks, and Tires are about the same. Well, almost since you don't actually use the breaks as much due to motor regen.

 

Otherwise maintenance is near Nil. Generally there is no need to ever tinker with the motor, power electronics, or battery. There is no oil or other fluids. So minimal maintenance which can be confirmed by the owners of the last generation of RAV4 EVs sold 10 years ago.

 

The wild card here is the battery. It shouldn't fail completely, but will slowly decay in capacity every year, so after say 10 years you can only go 70% of the original distance on a charge. The decay is faster in the first few years then levels off, so say 80% of original capacity after 5 years and 70% after 10 years. However, this too is not entirely accurate - the decay is affected by a lot of factors - to name a few:

 

1. Extreme ambient temperatures - this is helped by the TMS in the vehicle.

 

2. Deep cycling of the battery (charging from close to 0% a lot).

 

3. Keeping the battery near 100% a lot of the time.

 

4. Frequent fast charging.

 

 

So to sum - other than tires and wipers, generally close to zero maintenance required. Battery might be a problem at some point though, hard to predict at what point if at all. Of course 10+ year old vehicles are not worth much anyway, so probably not a big problem.

[wisdom]

EVs have few moving parts as compared to ICE. All you need is electric motors and a battery to provide power. Fewer things that can go wrong or fewer things to improve on.

 

Thus, they are very low maintenance and should not require as many replacement parts.

 

Another pro:

They are agnostic about the source of power as long as it can be converted to electricity. Thus, you effectively switch to the cheapest source of energy - whatever it maybe on the day as long as the electric utility is able to make that switch.

[rkbabang]

I forgot about the regenerative braking.  That does seem like it would put less strain on the brake pads and rotors.  A/C being electric would put a big strain on the batteries I think.  Picture what kind of battery pack it would take to run an A/C unit.  I wonder if the range takes a big hit when using A/C. 

 

I could see the resale value taking a big hit as the batteries loose their capacity.  Someone buying a 12 year old car would need to either live with reduced range, which gets lower every year, or the prospect of spending a large amount on an old car.  This probably doesn't matter to the Model S market (buyers of new luxury cars don't care if the car lasts 10 years, because they won't own them that long anyway), but potential Model X buyers are going to think about these things.

 

From what I gather the maintenance costs are much less for the first 10 years, but you might not be able to get much for it after 10-12 years or so.  Good for the person who buys the car new, compared with buying a conventional car, but not good for the person who wants to buy a used one.

 

[Liberty]

A/C being electric would put a big strain on the batteries I think.  Picture what kind of battery pack it would take to run an A/C unit.  I wonder if the range takes a big hit when using A/C. 

 

I doubt it's a problem. I mean, how hard can running A/C be compared to accelerating a big sedan from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds?

[ERICOPOLY]

A/C being electric would put a big strain on the batteries I think.  Picture what kind of battery pack it would take to run an A/C unit.  I wonder if the range takes a big hit when using A/C. 

 

I doubt it's a problem. I mean, how hard can running A/C be compared to accelerating a big sedan from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds?

 

 

Tesla is claiming 4.2 seconds 0 to 60 for the one I'm buying.

[rkbabang]

"Caution: To avoid whiplash make sure your head is already on the headrest before punching the accelerator."

 

Don't look down at the radio while taking off.

:)

 

[Liberty]

Tesla is claiming 4.2 seconds 0 to 60 for the one I'm buying.

 

Yep. The non-performance model is 5.4 secs, iirc.

[fareastwarriors]

A/C being electric would put a big strain on the batteries I think.  Picture what kind of battery pack it would take to run an A/C unit.  I wonder if the range takes a big hit when using A/C. 

 

I doubt it's a problem. I mean, how hard can running A/C be compared to accelerating a big sedan from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds?

 

 

Tesla is claiming 4.2 seconds 0 to 60 for the one I'm buying.

 

That's awesome

[Edward]

Regarding the model X - I will be very surprised if it turns out to cost sub 40K$ on the road. Also being low volume, Tesla has a built in scale disadvantage vs mass market auto makers so they can only really compete in the premium space. I think that Renault-Nissan and possibly GM will lead the mass market EV space and Tesla has no business trying to enter that segment. 

[Liberty]

Regarding the model X - I will be very surprised if it turns out to cost sub 40K$ on the road.

 

Where did you get that Model X was supposed to be sub 40k? The Model X is built on the Model S platform and should have similar pricing.

 

It's the next platform - still under development - that should be less expensive and built in higher volumes.

[Edward]

Regarding the model X - I will be very surprised if it turns out to cost sub 40K$ on the road.

 

Where did you get that Model X was supposed to be sub 40k? The Model X is built on the Model S platform and should have similar pricing.

 

It's the next platform - still under development - that should be less expensive and built in higher volumes.

Sorry, you're correct - I meant the next platform in development. Thanks.

[rkbabang]

Regarding the model X - I will be very surprised if it turns out to cost sub 40K$ on the road.

Where did you get that Model X was supposed to be sub 40k? The Model X is built on the Model S platform and should have similar pricing.

It's the next platform - still under development - that should be less expensive and built in higher volumes.

 

I had that understanding too.  I thought I read somewhere that the Model X was going to be aimed at the <$40K market.  Maybe I misunderstood and it was the next model after the model X that was being referenced.  That would make more sense since the Model X looks like it will be similar in specs and quality to the Model S on Tesla's website.