Liberty Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 I had that understanding too. I thought I read somewhere that the Model X was going to be aimed at the <$40K market. Maybe I misunderstood and it was the next model after the model X that was being referenced. That would make more sense since the Model X looks like it will be similar in specs and quality to the Model S on Tesla's website. Indeed, that can be confusing, and I myself probably aren't always clear when I talk about "the next platform" or the "next generation". The Model X is a Model S variant so I never consider it as anything more, but not everybody knows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Just rephrasing - In order to make a sub-40K$ EV (including battery), you need to count on mass market volumes (500K+ units per platform) to drive cost down. This space also has really nasty competition - Renault-Nissan and GM, so going that way is very risky. Hence I believe they will stay in premium for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Just rephrasing - In order to make a sub-40K$ EV (including battery), you need to count on mass market volumes (500K+ units per platform) to drive cost down. This space also has really nasty competition - Renault-Nissan and GM, so going that way is very risky. Hence I believe they will stay in premium for the foreseeable future. You don't necessarily need to sell that many. Nissan is already selling the LEAF for a pretty low price, and I'd expect that they will cut prices further over time now that they are ramping up their TN factory. I think Tesla can do much better than them in a few years (in good part because they're much leaner and smarter, and also thanks to the natural drop in price of components over time). edit: I think we have to be careful about anchoring. If gas cars didn't exist and someone came up with one today, showing you all the different parts, a lot of them moving.. You'd probably think it costs a lot more than an electric car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 A/C being electric would put a big strain on the batteries I think. Picture what kind of battery pack it would take to run an A/C unit. I wonder if the range takes a big hit when using A/C. I doubt it's a problem. I mean, how hard can running A/C be compared to accelerating a big sedan from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds? Tesla is claiming 4.2 seconds 0 to 60 for the one I'm buying. That's awesome The 911 Carrera S is 4.3 seconds. And that Porche costs $98,900 MSRP. The Model S is faster, cheaper, and it's a family car (room for 7 passengers with two kids in the rear folding seats which I'm buying as an option). I bought all of the options. What the hell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Just rephrasing - In order to make a sub-40K$ EV (including battery), you need to count on mass market volumes (500K+ units per platform) to drive cost down. This space also has really nasty competition - Renault-Nissan and GM, so going that way is very risky. Hence I believe they will stay in premium for the foreseeable future. You don't necessarily need to sell that many. Nissan is already selling the LEAF for a pretty low price, and I'd expect that they will cut prices further over time now that they are ramping up their TN factory. I think Tesla can do much better than them in a few years (in good part because they're much leaner and smarter, and also thanks to the natural drop in price of components over time). The reason Nissan can afford to sell the LEAF for around 30K$ is because they expect to sell 500K+ cars a year on the LEAF platform globally at some point. So they can capitalise the fixed costs on a lot of cars. Tesla can't reach such a volume. I don't really buy the lean and smart argument. Yes they are, but it can only take you so far. It could mean, say, 500$ per car in cost advantage, but certainly can't make up for the volume difference which can be a 5,000$ gap per car in some cases. Component cost is lower for mass market manufacturers because they have scale advantage in procurement. Tesla is not big enough to get volume discounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 The 911 Carrera S is 4.3 seconds. And that Porche costs $98,900 MSRP. The Model S is faster, cheaper, and it's a family car (room for 7 passengers with two kids in the rear folding seats which I'm buying as an option). I bought all of the options. What the hell! More "out of curiosity" questions: What color did you pick? Do you live close to Supercharger stations (not that it'll be a problem over time.. check out their future expansion plans: http://goo.gl/OoqGg http://goo.gl/CD39O )? Do you have a delivery date yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-08/tesla-posts-first-quarterly-profit-on-model-s-deliveries.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 The reason Nissan can afford to sell the LEAF for around 30K$ is because they expect to sell 500K+ cars a year on the LEAF platform globally at some point. So they can capitalise the fixed costs on a lot of cars. Tesla can't reach such a volume. I don't really buy the lean and smart argument. Yes they are, but it can only take you so far. It could mean, say, 500$ per car in cost advantage, but certainly can't make up for the volume difference which can be a 5,000$ gap per car in some cases. Component cost is lower for mass market manufacturers because they have scale advantage in procurement. Tesla is not big enough to get volume discounts. Guess we'll have to wait and see. Experts were saying that Tesla couldn't do what it has already done, so it wouldn't be the first time. Personally, I don't see why Tesla would need to increase it's production rate from 20k/year to 500k+/year to cut the cost of a next generation vehicle in half. They'll need to increase, but not by 25x. Batteries are improving storage capacity at something like 7-8% a year last I checked, so in a few years a smaller battery will have the same range. They'll no doubt make the next platform start out with a lower range, be smaller and have fewer bells & whistles, and re-use/adapt a lot of the power electronics, software, motor tech, etc, from the Model S, so no need to spend on re-inventing the wheel. There are a lot fewer parts than in a gas car, so the investment in re-tooling and new machinery is a lot lower. Totally doable, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 The 911 Carrera S is 4.3 seconds. And that Porche costs $98,900 MSRP. The Model S is faster, cheaper, and it's a family car (room for 7 passengers with two kids in the rear folding seats which I'm buying as an option). I bought all of the options. What the hell! More "out of curiosity" questions: What color did you pick? Do you live close to Supercharger stations (not that it'll be a problem over time.. check out their future expansion plans: http://goo.gl/OoqGg http://goo.gl/CD39O )? Do you have a delivery date yet? There is going to be a Supercharger station in my garage. Otherwise, no. I'm in Montecito. We were offered June for delivery date, but we opted for July because we're traveling in June. This is my car's design: Model S Performance Silver Metallic Paint All Glass Panoramic Roof Carbon Fiber Spoiler 21" Silver Performance Plus Wheels Grey Performance Interior Obeche Wood Matte Decor 85 kWh Battery Performance Plus Package Tech Package Sound Studio Package Active Air Suspension Rear Facing Seats Parcel Shelf PaintArmor Twin Chargers High Power Wall Connector Supercharging Destination and Regulatory Doc Fee $108,420 (price with $7,500 Federal Tax Credit and $2,500 California Tax Credit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Very cool! And there are Supercharger stations close (these can drive ridiculous amounts of current and recharge your battery faster than anything else -- they're also free to use for Tesla owners): http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger So if you ever decided to take longer trips, shouldn't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Personally, I don't see why Tesla would need to increase it's production rate from 20k/year to 500k+/year to cut the cost of a next generation vehicle in half. They'll need to increase, but not by 25x. Batteries are improving storage capacity at something like 7-8% a year last I checked, so in a few years a smaller battery will have the same range. They'll no doubt make the next platform start out with a lower range, be smaller and have fewer bells & whistles, and re-use/adapt a lot of the power electronics, software, motor tech, etc, from the Model S, so no need to spend on re-inventing the wheel. There are a lot fewer parts than in a gas car, so the investment in re-tooling and new machinery is a lot lower. Totally doable, IMO. I agree will all of that. Problem is, Renault-Nissan are doing exactly the same and will enjoy similar benefits. I also think it's sobering to read how close Tesla came to bankruptcy in 2008-2009. This is not an easy business to be in. Don't get me wrong - Tesla will own the premium space and kill the competition. But mass market cars? Another game altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Very cool! And there are Supercharger stations close (these can drive ridiculous amounts of current and recharge your battery faster than anything else -- they're also free to use for Tesla owners): http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger So if you ever decided to take longer trips, shouldn't be a problem. It's a big problem because the one in Gilroy is the first one traveling north on Hwy 101 from Montecito. It's about 253 miles. Cutting it close! They need one in San Luis Obispo, or Paso Robles. You don't really want to drive any other route to get to the San Francisco Bay Area from here. But that's why I'm not planning on driving this car for more than day-to-day local driving. EDIT: And what if there is a line at the Supercharging station? Possibly wait for an hour or two just to get your turn of waiting for another hour? So we have a 2008 Suburban and a 2011 Roadtrek for distance driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Very cool! And there are Supercharger stations close (these can drive ridiculous amounts of current and recharge your battery faster than anything else -- they're also free to use for Tesla owners): http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger So if you ever decided to take longer trips, shouldn't be a problem. It's a big problem because the one in Gilroy is the first one traveling north on Hwy 101 from Montecito. It's about 253 miles. Cutting it close! They need one in San Luis Obispo, or Paso Robles. You don't really want to drive any other route to get to the San Francisco Bay Area from here. But that's why I'm not planning on driving this car for more than day-to-day local driving. And slow charge still exists! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 It's a big problem because the one in Gilroy is the first one traveling north on Hwy 101 from Montecito. It's about 253 miles. Cutting it close! They need one in San Luis Obispo, or Paso Robles. You don't really want to drive any other route to get to the San Francisco Bay Area from here. But that's why I'm not planning on driving this car for more than day-to-day local driving. It's a problem right now, but soon there will be many more Supercharger stations. The stated goal is for Tesla owners to be able to drive pretty much anywhere in the US while always being in range of a station (exceptions of course in really rural areas, but even there you'll eventually find charging stations -- they just won't be Superchargers). And if you really want to drive that route in the meantime, you can always find a regular charging station in between, stop to have a coffee and charge enough miles to get you to the next Supercharger. No need to charge fully at a regular station, just enough to get you home or to the next fast one (with a margin of safety, of course ;) ). The onboard mapping system will help you find all the charging stations on your route (more are popping up all the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 And if you really want to drive that route in the meantime, you can always find a regular charging station in between, stop to have a coffee and charge enough miles to get you to the next Supercharger. No need to charge fully at a regular station, just enough to get you to the next fast one. The onboard mapping system will help you find all the charging stations on your route (more are popping up all the time). Good point. I need to only pick up 25 miles of charge to make that Gilroy stretch with safety margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 I wound up changing my options to the Performance model. Fully loaded, every single option. Might as well do this well if it's going to get done. Decided to go with paying cash instead of financing it -- keep my debt/income low for when I shop for a home mortgage. Crazy week. Up 20% in 3 days and now this impulse buy. Congrats. I think it'll be a ton of fun. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 The cool thing is that I can keep on tweaking my order because it doesn't go to manufacturing until the 20th. I decided to lose the spoiler -- looks cleaner without it and I can't imagine it has much useful purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/13/autos/tesla-sales-bmw-mercedes-audi/index.html http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/130510073830-tesla-model-s-sales-chart-620xa.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I have seen a few model S's in my area (SF Bay Area). It looks so sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Congrats Eric -- I've toyed with buying a Volt, but 20 miles on charge hardly seems worth it...I'm very happy with my Prius and my wife thinks I'm crazy (I could drive anything I want, but I choose a Prius) LOL...Will want to hear your personal observations about the car after you've had a little time to enjoy it! BTW - The shorts are getting killed -- Up 177% YTD and 57% over the last three trading days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The borrow is around 37%... more expensive than credit card debt. (This short hurt. I covered my common on Thursday and still have put options.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Here's people on valueinvestorsclub.com talking about it: "Shorts taken out and shot" http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Topic/TopicDetails?topicId=201 "Rules for Shorting" http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Topic/TopicDetails?topicId=200 writeup on TSLA http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/84973 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 BTW - The shorts are getting killed -- Up 177% YTD and 57% over the last three trading days! They should have listened to Elon Musk who practically handed their current sales numbers on a silver platter to them. He warned them about the cash flow positive tipping point, he warned them about the sales numbers, who were they listening to? "Why is it the people who need the most help... won't take it?" - A River Runs Through It Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Eric - If you had a position in Telsa you could have bought everyone on the board a new "S"... :) :) :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Damn. If I had bought this stock, I would now have enough money to buy their car too. win win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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