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AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.

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walkie518 Newbie

walkie518

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-whole-foods/amazon-cuts-whole-foods-prices-for-prime-members-in-new-grocery-showdown-idUSKCN1IH0BM

 

Whole Foods debuted a much-anticipated loyalty program that offers special discounts to Prime customers, including 10 percent off hundreds of sale items

 

If only Amazon could fix instacart!  What a nightmare that company is...

 

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vinod1 Newbie

vinod1

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Someone has written a good description of how fake reviews are done on Amazon:

 

http://boards.fool.com/all-5-star-reviews-on-amazon-are-fake-33066530.aspx

 

 

At first, I could not comprehend what he was saying so when I came back to the U.S., did some research of my own and now clearly see how they are doing this. It has a lot of to do with Facebook and the private Amazon review groups all over the world that are not even disguised and are out in the open for anyone who wants to join. These Facebook groups are set up as discounts and coupons for products sold on Amazon, but in reality their sole purpose it to sign up U.S, UK, and other Amazon buyers all over the world and offer them a refund of their purchases on Amazon if they leave 5-star reviews. The product posters are all Chinese, although some disguise themselves with non-Chinese names and profile photos or locations. They post a product and ask interested parties to PM them. I signed up for a few groups and showed interest in some items to see how they work. Shortly after you show interest in an item and send a private message, you receive a FB Messenger reply from the poster asking first to supply them with your Amazon profile. They want the profile to make sure which Amazon region you are located, and also make sure that you are leaving only good reviews. After verifying the profile, they supply a link to the item and promise to pay you back via Paypal for the item cost, plus any Paypal fees and, in some cases, $3 to $5 bonus.

 

The volume of the products posted on these numerous Facebook groups is just astounding. There are hundreds of Facebook groups like these set up for all Amazon regions and I see more than 20 to 30 items posted within hours in each one. And happy reviewers are participating as they are scoring free products, all against Amazon rules.

 

The Chinese seller who explained this to me, told me that it is very easy for them to get as many as 50 or 60 5-star reviews on a new products within just a few weeks. Given that well less than 1% of our legitimate purchasers actually take the time to leave a product review, it typically takes us many many months, lots of advertising dollars, and lots of sales at very low profits or loss to gain that many reviews and they are not all guaranteed to be 5-star either. I just checked a few items we sell to see the percentage of reviews we get. On one item that we started selling last October with over 700 sales, we only have 2 reviews so far, fortunately both 5-star. On another item with sales of well over 3,000 in over one year, we now have 29 reviews.

 

 

 

 

 

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-personally-pushed-postmaster-general-to-double-rates-on-amazon-other-firms/2018/05/18/2b6438d2-5931-11e8-858f-12becb4d6067_story.html

 

President Trump has personally pushed U.S. Postmaster General Megan Brennan to double the rate the Postal Service charges Amazon.com and other firms to ship packages, according to three people familiar with their conversations, a dramatic move that probably would cost these companies billions of dollars.
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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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So, what is Trump‘s vision for thr Postal service - deliver ever shrinking junk mail letter and postcards to households? FedEx and UPS must really like this idea.

 

None of that matters one iota to him. He's just attacking Bezos because he owns the Washington Post.

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nickenumbers Newbie

nickenumbers

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Guys,

 

I have been looking at AMZN:

 

  • Revenue
  • Revenue Growth Rate
  • Net Income
  • Net Income Growth Rate
  • Gross Profit
  • Margins
  • PE and PEG
  • Competitors include WMT, NFLX, Target, Ebay, Cloud Companies, Every Specialty Retailer, Plus China and India Similar AMZN Competitors

 

The margins are really thin presently and there is a large CapEx requirement. 

 

It is a CapEx Lite, or heavy business?

Is it a future high margin biz, or a long term, grind it out low margin biz?

Is it generating no Net Income because it is growing the Rev and putting all the brick/mortar out of business and then it will raise prices?

Can it make its NI anything it wants it to be?

 

I don't know, but I do know that the PE is 250..

 

I love Bezos and Amazon, but I am unclear on where it lands, and I can't wrap my head around a 250 PE.

 

What do you super smart people think?

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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Guys,

 

I have been looking at AMZN:

 

  • Revenue
  • Revenue Growth Rate
  • Net Income
  • Net Income Growth Rate
  • Gross Profit
  • Margins
  • PE and PEG
  • Competitors include WMT, NFLX, Target, Ebay, Cloud Companies, Every Specialty Retailer, Plus China and India Similar AMZN Competitors

 

The margins are really thin presently and there is a large CapEx requirement. 

 

It is a CapEx Lite, or heavy business?

Is it a future high margin biz, or a long term, grind it out low margin biz?

Is it generating no Net Income because it is growing the Rev and putting all the brick/mortar out of business and then it will raise prices?

Can it make its NI anything it wants it to be?

 

I don't know, but I do know that the PE is 250..

 

I love Bezos and Amazon, but I am unclear on where it lands, and I can't wrap my head around a 250 PE.

 

What do you super smart people think?

 

I suggest you read this thread, there's a lot of potential answers to your questions.

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rishig Newbie

rishig

Posted
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Guys,

 

I have been looking at AMZN:

 

  • Revenue
  • Revenue Growth Rate
  • Net Income
  • Net Income Growth Rate
  • Gross Profit
  • Margins
  • PE and PEG
  • Competitors include WMT, NFLX, Target, Ebay, Cloud Companies, Every Specialty Retailer, Plus China and India Similar AMZN Competitors

 

The margins are really thin presently and there is a large CapEx requirement. 

 

It is a CapEx Lite, or heavy business?

Is it a future high margin biz, or a long term, grind it out low margin biz?

Is it generating no Net Income because it is growing the Rev and putting all the brick/mortar out of business and then it will raise prices?

Can it make its NI anything it wants it to be?

 

I don't know, but I do know that the PE is 250..

 

I love Bezos and Amazon, but I am unclear on where it lands, and I can't wrap my head around a 250 PE.

 

What do you super smart people think?

 

The easiest way to think of Amazon is as three different businesses:

 

US Retail

1P: Amazon selling products

3P: Third party selling products

International:

1P, 3P

AWS

 

Furthermore, also consider that some of these businesses are matured and profit making while others are not (yet). Amazon is losing money on international business (so far). Amazon discloses enough information in its 10Ks to come up with a valuation range for each of these businesses. Saying the PE is 250x is too simplistic. May I refer you to Phil Fisher's book "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" Chapter "When to Buy" where he describes these types of situations.

 

 

 

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Jurgis Newbie

Jurgis

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If Amazon starts monetizing the data they have from their users for ad sales across the web like FB/GOOGL do, what would happen?

 

Can we expect FB/GOOGL size ad business at some point?

Will this hurt FB/GOOGL or mainly non-FB/GOOGL advertisers?

 

Is there any reason AMZN is a bit lagging with the FB-like ad platform buildout?

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rishig Newbie

rishig

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Monetizing its data like charging me a different price if it knows I'm logged into my account vs viewing the same product from a different unknown device?

 

I'm done with Amazon.

 

In the old days, powerful retailers charged shelving fees to product companies. The first page on Amazon search along with prime are the most visible "shelves". The monetization of sponsored ad products would come out as "shelving" fees.

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mrholty Newbie

mrholty

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Monetizing its data like charging me a different price if it knows I'm logged into my account vs viewing the same product from a different unknown device?

 

I'm done with Amazon.

 

In the old days, powerful retailers charged shelving fees to product companies. The first page on Amazon search along with prime are the most visible "shelves". The monetization of sponsored ad products would come out as "shelving" fees.

 

 

Monetizing its data like charging me a different price if it knows I'm logged into my account vs viewing the same product from a different unknown device?

 

I'm done with Amazon.

 

There a lack of information abound.  Sometime Amazon already gives you a different price based on your location and they give you a different price based on if you are a business seller or not.  Officially, Amazon doesn't rotate the buybox based on location but there have been examples in the past where they have definitely been testing it. 

 

The way to get to the first page of a search ranking is propiertary but held by Amazon and its a mix of page views, conversion rates and all the things done by GOOG.  They run their own adwords campaigns that sellers can run on Amazon.com only or on Amazon + GOOG.  They do everything GOOG does. 

 

Facebook ad sets are driven by the searcher profile, Amazon and Goog search by terms and how much one bids for those terms.  After selling PT on Amazon for the last 2 years I have lot a lot of the respect that Amazon has in the marketplace.  I've never wanted a business to fail more but I doubt it will.

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Cigarbutt Newbie

Cigarbutt

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On the PillPack acquisition:

 

PillPack, in a way, offers nothing new but, from another angle, is significant because of what it does at the margin.

 

 

-over 30 million US adults take more than 5 prescription pills per day.

-the offer is flexible (delivery, OTC products possible, clear instructions and online support) and truly focused on customer delight in an industry moving to consumerization

-competitors expected but they are at the technology forefront

-have become associated with big names but it is not Theranos-like

 

The competition landscape will continue to be tough but customers may have the last word.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/14/technology/pillpack-express-scripts/index.html

 

My opinion is that this is a typical example of a potential scale and technology-based solution where earned margin from improved outcomes is possible.

 

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