LongTermView Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Cool, I typed that quickly and left out the word "we" but I'm glad you read it correctly as "can we ballpark." The footnote for that $9,265 million says the following: Includes commissions, related fulfillment and shipping fees, and other third-party seller services. So about how much of that $9.3 bn is commission as opposed to fulfillment and shipping fees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Ok - take -3. If we attribute more sales to third party market place, retail has to go lower. Fundamentally retail is not profitable - especially given the losses in Europe and India. WMT with 500B in revenue is valued at 250B. Retail: 100 B - 300 B AWS: 200 B - 500 B Advertising: 50B - 200B Amzn third party market place: 100B-200B Low end: 450B High end: 1.2 trillion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/19/17591412/amazon-iphone-app-ar-feature-nuts-bolts Clever use of augmented reality in a retail context: Amazon quietly updated the camera search on its iOS app with a new “Part Finder,” which lets you search for specific nuts and bolts that you might need more of, but need help identifying. If Amazon’s AR tech can figure out what it is, the app will help you easily buy more of the random screw you’re searching for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukawa Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 Advertising seems exceptionally high to me. At the high end that’s half of google? I agree with SlowAppreciation. What is the thesis for Advertising being worth 200B - 400B, shalab? There is a very strong argument that AMZN's advertising business could be worth more per dollar of ad revenues than either Facebook's or Google's over time. The extent to which you have to reach to justify amazon's price is strong evidence to me that Amazon is overvalued if its financials weren't evidence enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 Advertising seems exceptionally high to me. At the high end that’s half of google? I agree with SlowAppreciation. What is the thesis for Advertising being worth 200B - 400B, shalab? There is a very strong argument that AMZN's advertising business could be worth more per dollar of ad revenues than either Facebook's or Google's over time. The extent to which you have to reach to justify amazon's price is strong evidence to me that Amazon is overvalued if its financials weren't evidence enough. The debate is on how to value the advertising business as part of a sum-of-the-parts analysis. Facebook trades around 11x sales and FB cannot identify (only assess by implication) the buying habits of its users (then again FB has trouble with knowing if it's users are real or exist in duplicate) Why shouldn't AMZN's advertising business be worth at least the same multiple to sales of where Facebook trades today given that AMZN has an edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 Can AMZN give away user data for advertising? Would they not shoot them selves in the foot providing data to their competitors? Also, the revenue from advertising is already included in the income statement, wouldn’t it be double counting to just add the value at a multiple of revenues in a SOP analysis, without subracting said income from the other business lines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 Can AMZN give away user data for advertising? Would they not shoot them selves in the foot providing data to their competitors? They don't have to give data anymore than Google or Facebook are giving data to the advertisers. What they do is use the data to better target the ads, increasing conversion rates and making the ads more valuable through the auction mechanism. Also, the revenue from advertising is already included in the income statement, wouldn’t it be double counting to just add the value at a multiple of revenues in a SOP analysis, without subracting said income from the other business lines? The point is not that this revenue isn't counted, but that's it's growing fast and high margin, and growing from a small base. That small base might have been barely noticeable a couple years ago, now it's something like $4bn, and in a few years it could be tens of billions of high-margin revenue. That makes a difference, just like AWS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Interview with Jeff Bezos: https://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2018/08/30/bezos-unbound-exclusive-interview-with-the-amazon-founder-on-what-he-plans-to-conquer-next/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Amazon Sets Its Sights on the $88 Billion Online Ad Market https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/03/business/media/amazon-digital-ads.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 Amazon is ordering 20,000 Amazon branded Mercedes vans for their delivery service. Mercedes-Benz Vans opens new Sprinter plant in North Charleston - Amazon becomes the world's largest Sprinter customer "To coincide with the opening, Mercedes-Benz Vans also announced it will be producing Amazon branded Sprinter vans for the retail company's new Delivery Service Partner program at the new plant. Small business owners will work with third-party fleet management companies to procure their customized vans and get special leases in order to keep their startup costs low. "We're proud to partner with Mercedes-Benz Vans to contribute to local economies through the order of Amazon branded Sprinter vans produced at their new plant in North Charleston," said Dave Clark, Amazon's Senior Vice President of Worldwide Operations. "Thanks to the tremendous response to Amazon's new Delivery Service Partner program, we are excited to increase our original order of branded Sprinter vans to 20,000 vehicles so new small businesses will have access to a customized fleet to power deliveries of Amazon packages."" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 The Heller House Fund letter wrote up an analysis on Amazon. It's a big position for them and they describe their cloud services business being worth 1 Trillion within 10 years. Did anybody else read the letter? Do you agree? Do you think there are flaws in their argument? The guy who runs it, I've known for many years and I consider him an amazing analyst. However, I'm always looking for rebuttals and why someone could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltybit Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 https://www.recode.net/2018/9/10/17797720/amazon-is-stuffing-its-search-results-pages-with-ads Discussion on HN https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17959085 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 CenturyLink builds AWS into its fiber-based broadcast service https://www.fiercevideo.com/tech/centurylink-builds-aws-into-its-fiber-based-broadcast-service?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT1Rsak1qZ3pOemMxT1RrMCIsInQiOiJpemR5K285TDY1ZkZ2citYaGs4YldqOU5YVFJldVwvSDRBNkJoVWExVlwvQnExMHgrWmxOcWpFZ2p6c0liNnV6ekljMzRjNkNxbXJHY0N0ZEZOQlFDREsySjZYM1pVamhQY1dCeTBHXC9jNTF3OUFUcTdSKzlrNEZIajFicHdLUXBpYiJ9&mrkid=60566399 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Valvoline (VVV) was down over 7% today after Amazon released their own brand of motor oil. I suspect this will become a recurring pattern. https://www.forbes.com/sites/brittainladd/2018/09/14/amazon-is-in-the-oil-business/#7a67d26048f8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 1-hour Bezos interview: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 Starting operations in Turkey in 15 categories: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-turkey/amazon-launches-in-turkey-idUSKCN1LZ0GL Also, on the ad business: https://www.axios.com/amazon-becoming-3rd-biggest-digital-ad-platform-37338b9c-54f5-42cd-b081-79698e89f559.html Also, EU probe: https://www.ft.com/content/a8c78888-bc0f-11e8-8274-55b72926558f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/19/amazon-is-reportedly-planning-up-to-3000-cashierless-stores-by-2021.html "Amazon is reportedly considering opening 3,000 of its cashierless stores by 2021, Bloomberg said on Wednesday." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 https://www.pymnts.com/amazon/2018/acquisition-india-grocery-chain-more-samara-capital/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Amazon might get into the ad-supported TV space: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/amazon-planning-new-free-video-service-compete-tv-dollars.html Also getting into the Mattress business, undercutting Casper/Purple/etc: https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-selling-mattress-low-price-2018-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Amazon might get into the ad-supported TV space: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/amazon-planning-new-free-video-service-compete-tv-dollars.html What I hate is that AMZN has started showing trailers of their movies/shows before the actual show you start. Maybe this is only for "free" Prime views, but still sucks. I was super ready to cancel Netflix, but this is step back for AMZN. If they gonna start annoying viewers with essentially ads on their service, that's not a good thing. Also AMZN Roku UI sucks. Not that Netflix Roku UI is great either, but maybe a bit better. Somebody program a good fricking UI FTW. It's like 10 years and nobody cares... >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villainx Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 What I hate is that AMZN has started showing trailers of their movies/shows before the actual show you start. Maybe this is only for "free" Prime views, but still sucks. On fire remote, it skips it when I press forward. Granted, another click, but ... What I hate is that they show previews for horror shows, when I'm getting ready to launch daniel tiger or wild kratts for the kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Amazon raises minimum wage to $15 for all US employees Amazon and CEO Jeff Bezos have been facing criticism for its pay disparity. The new minimum wage will benefit more than 250,000 Amazon employees — including part-time and temporary employees — and 100,000 seasonal employees. Amazon says the effect of the higher pay will be reflected in its forward-looking quarterly guidance. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/amazon-raises-minimum-wage-to-15-for-all-us-employees.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies Amazon chief security officer response to Businessweek article: https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/security/setting-the-record-straight-on-bloomberg-businessweeks-erroneous-article/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies Amazon chief security officer response to Businessweek article: https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/security/setting-the-record-straight-on-bloomberg-businessweeks-erroneous-article/ If they're received an NSL they are required by law to deny this. And given the circumstances I can't imagine they don't have an NSL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 I just have to say this: Back in 2006, three engineers in Oregon had a clever idea. Demand for mobile video was about to explode, and they predicted that broadcasters would be desperate to transform programs designed to fit TV screens into the various formats needed for viewing on smartphones, laptops, and other devices. To meet the anticipated demand, the engineers started Elemental Technologies, assembling what one former adviser to the company calls a genius team to write code that would adapt the superfast graphics chips being produced for high-end video-gaming machines. The resulting software dramatically reduced the time it took to process large video files. Elemental then loaded the software onto custom-built servers emblazoned with its leprechaun-green logos. Elemental servers sold for as much as $100,000 each, at profit margins of as high as 70 percent, according to a former adviser to the company. Two of Elemental’s biggest early clients were the Mormon church, which used the technology to beam sermons to congregations around the world, and the adult film industry, which did not. Pied Piper, is that you? 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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