AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.

[Liberty]

While Amazon's share price has not decreased much, AMZN is one of the few companies who may have increased in intrinsic value.  Has it and if it has, by how much?

 

 

I know we're kind of giving them a pass for the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in, but when I'm told as a Prime member that it will take 1 month to deliver an in-stock item because they are prioritizing other shipments, it's not helpful at all. If they dropped it in the mail I could have it in a week. I've actually shifted my online purchasing away from Amazon in the past 2 weeks.

 

I agree - although they seem to be doing underpromise/overdeliver on this. I ordered a replacement light switch (we have prime) that was in stock, normally would be either 1 or 2 day delivery. They said a month because of prioritizing other items. Not in a rush and their price was good so still bought it. Had it in 2 days.

 

Not surprised, but they might want to adjust their wording, I've ended up ordering elsewhere.

 

They have a banner at the top with a FAQ about COVID shipping:

 

https://www.amazon.ca/gp/help/customer/display.html/?nodeId=GDFU3JS5AL6SYHRD&_encoding=UTF8&ref_=covid19_UPNAV_Gateway

[Liberty]

Hiring another 75k, on top of the 100k last month:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/amazon-hiring-75000-more-workers-as-demand-rises-due-to-coronavirus.html

[Morgan]

While Amazon's share price has not decreased much, AMZN is one of the few companies who may have increased in intrinsic value.  Has it and if it has, by how much?

 

 

I know we're kind of giving them a pass for the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in, but when I'm told as a Prime member that it will take 1 month to deliver an in-stock item because they are prioritizing other shipments, it's not helpful at all. If they dropped it in the mail I could have it in a week. I've actually shifted my online purchasing away from Amazon in the past 2 weeks.

 

I agree - although they seem to be doing underpromise/overdeliver on this. I ordered a replacement light switch (we have prime) that was in stock, normally would be either 1 or 2 day delivery. They said a month because of prioritizing other items. Not in a rush and their price was good so still bought it. Had it in 2 days.

 

We have Prime too. I ordered a few things and everything was on a 3-4 week wait. I didn’t want to wait that long so I cancelled 4-5 orders and found individual sellers on eBay. Usually the same price but 3-7 days until package was delivered. Longer than normal Prime, but faster than amazons 30 day wait.

 

Anyways, I don’t see this actually impacting where I order things. And I can appreciate that they’re prioritizing medical equipment.

 

In normal times, amazon is always the fastest online, and usually the cheapest.

[fareastwarriors]

While Amazon's share price has not decreased much, AMZN is one of the few companies who may have increased in intrinsic value.  Has it and if it has, by how much?

 

 

I know we're kind of giving them a pass for the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in, but when I'm told as a Prime member that it will take 1 month to deliver an in-stock item because they are prioritizing other shipments, it's not helpful at all. If they dropped it in the mail I could have it in a week. I've actually shifted my online purchasing away from Amazon in the past 2 weeks.

 

I agree - although they seem to be doing underpromise/overdeliver on this. I ordered a replacement light switch (we have prime) that was in stock, normally would be either 1 or 2 day delivery. They said a month because of prioritizing other items. Not in a rush and their price was good so still bought it. Had it in 2 days.

 

We have Prime too. I ordered a few things and everything was on a 3-4 week wait. I didn’t want to wait that long so I cancelled 4-5 orders and found individual sellers on eBay. Usually the same price but 3-7 days until package was delivered. Longer than normal Prime, but faster than amazons 30 day wait.

 

Anyways, I don’t see this actually impacting where I order things. And I can appreciate that they’re prioritizing medical equipment.

 

In normal times, amazon is always the fastest online, and usually the cheapest.

 

 

For me, most things are still coming in 2-3 days and the rest maybe a week max. I have ordered like 20 different times in April  and deliveries are still really fast considering what's going on.

 

 

[bizaro86]

While Amazon's share price has not decreased much, AMZN is one of the few companies who may have increased in intrinsic value.  Has it and if it has, by how much?

 

 

I know we're kind of giving them a pass for the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in, but when I'm told as a Prime member that it will take 1 month to deliver an in-stock item because they are prioritizing other shipments, it's not helpful at all. If they dropped it in the mail I could have it in a week. I've actually shifted my online purchasing away from Amazon in the past 2 weeks.

 

I agree - although they seem to be doing underpromise/overdeliver on this. I ordered a replacement light switch (we have prime) that was in stock, normally would be either 1 or 2 day delivery. They said a month because of prioritizing other items. Not in a rush and their price was good so still bought it. Had it in 2 days.

 

We have Prime too. I ordered a few things and everything was on a 3-4 week wait. I didn’t want to wait that long so I cancelled 4-5 orders and found individual sellers on eBay. Usually the same price but 3-7 days until package was delivered. Longer than normal Prime, but faster than amazons 30 day wait.

 

Anyways, I don’t see this actually impacting where I order things. And I can appreciate that they’re prioritizing medical equipment.

 

In normal times, amazon is always the fastest online, and usually the cheapest.

 

My point was that even things that say 3-4 week wait have been coming much faster.

[Morgan]

While Amazon's share price has not decreased much, AMZN is one of the few companies who may have increased in intrinsic value.  Has it and if it has, by how much?

 

 

I know we're kind of giving them a pass for the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in, but when I'm told as a Prime member that it will take 1 month to deliver an in-stock item because they are prioritizing other shipments, it's not helpful at all. If they dropped it in the mail I could have it in a week. I've actually shifted my online purchasing away from Amazon in the past 2 weeks.

 

I agree - although they seem to be doing underpromise/overdeliver on this. I ordered a replacement light switch (we have prime) that was in stock, normally would be either 1 or 2 day delivery. They said a month because of prioritizing other items. Not in a rush and their price was good so still bought it. Had it in 2 days.

 

We have Prime too. I ordered a few things and everything was on a 3-4 week wait. I didn’t want to wait that long so I cancelled 4-5 orders and found individual sellers on eBay. Usually the same price but 3-7 days until package was delivered. Longer than normal Prime, but faster than amazons 30 day wait.

 

Anyways, I don’t see this actually impacting where I order things. And I can appreciate that they’re prioritizing medical equipment.

 

In normal times, amazon is always the fastest online, and usually the cheapest.

 

My point was that even things that say 3-4 week wait have been coming much faster.

 

Touché. I did wait about a week but none of the items had shipped so I cancelled. I’ll try again on some things only available cheaply on amazon.

[bizaro86]

While Amazon's share price has not decreased much, AMZN is one of the few companies who may have increased in intrinsic value.  Has it and if it has, by how much?

 

 

I know we're kind of giving them a pass for the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in, but when I'm told as a Prime member that it will take 1 month to deliver an in-stock item because they are prioritizing other shipments, it's not helpful at all. If they dropped it in the mail I could have it in a week. I've actually shifted my online purchasing away from Amazon in the past 2 weeks.

 

I agree - although they seem to be doing underpromise/overdeliver on this. I ordered a replacement light switch (we have prime) that was in stock, normally would be either 1 or 2 day delivery. They said a month because of prioritizing other items. Not in a rush and their price was good so still bought it. Had it in 2 days.

 

We have Prime too. I ordered a few things and everything was on a 3-4 week wait. I didn’t want to wait that long so I cancelled 4-5 orders and found individual sellers on eBay. Usually the same price but 3-7 days until package was delivered. Longer than normal Prime, but faster than amazons 30 day wait.

 

Anyways, I don’t see this actually impacting where I order things. And I can appreciate that they’re prioritizing medical equipment.

 

In normal times, amazon is always the fastest online, and usually the cheapest.

 

My point was that even things that say 3-4 week wait have been coming much faster.

 

Touché. I did wait about a week but none of the items had shipped so I cancelled. I’ll try again on some things only available cheaply on amazon.

 

Interesting. I wonder how much of that depends on local warehouse capacity. I've been consistently getting items that say 30 day delivery in 1-3 days, and I have a pretty large sample size. I'd be interested in knowing how pervasive that is.

 

Amazon did recently upsize their distribution center in my city fairly substantially, so maybe they have excess capacity locally where I live.

[Spekulatius]

While Amazon's share price has not decreased much, AMZN is one of the few companies who may have increased in intrinsic value.  Has it and if it has, by how much?

 

 

I know we're kind of giving them a pass for the extraordinary situation we find ourselves in, but when I'm told as a Prime member that it will take 1 month to deliver an in-stock item because they are prioritizing other shipments, it's not helpful at all. If they dropped it in the mail I could have it in a week. I've actually shifted my online purchasing away from Amazon in the past 2 weeks.

 

I agree - although they seem to be doing underpromise/overdeliver on this. I ordered a replacement light switch (we have prime) that was in stock, normally would be either 1 or 2 day delivery. They said a month because of prioritizing other items. Not in a rush and their price was good so still bought it. Had it in 2 days.

 

We have Prime too. I ordered a few things and everything was on a 3-4 week wait. I didn’t want to wait that long so I cancelled 4-5 orders and found individual sellers on eBay. Usually the same price but 3-7 days until package was delivered. Longer than normal Prime, but faster than amazons 30 day wait.

 

Anyways, I don’t see this actually impacting where I order things. And I can appreciate that they’re prioritizing medical equipment.

 

In normal times, amazon is always the fastest online, and usually the cheapest.

 

The lead time that AMZN is now giving is vastly conservative. I ordered a item late last week where they gave me a May 4 delivery date and it arrived April 12 (Sunday!) actually. Similar for other items.

[Jurgis]

It depends.

 

I've ordered masks that are sold by Amazon (not third party). Showed in stock 2 day delivery. Showed shipped. In reality was never shipped ( I had to go to UPS to check ), never delivered. I requested reshipping, got auto message that they don't have the product. So I requested refund.

 

Ordered laundry stain remover, was shipped and delivered normally.

 

I've ordered some stuff from Chinese 3rd party merchants. The real ones that operated long time - e.g. window shades - are still shipping normally from China.

The ones that sell masks/disinfecting wipes/etc are a coin toss I think.

 

My "subscribe and save" shipment was normal although Amazon changed UI to make it more difficult to pull items from future shipments. That sucks, but not big deal.

 

I haven't really ordered anything that was not PPE and was on May delivery dates. But then most of my stuff was in "subscribe and save".

[Casey]

We've shifted maybe 80-90% of our grocery budget to Amazon, which is now also much bigger because no restaurants.

[Morgan]

We've shifted maybe 80-90% of our grocery budget to Amazon, which is now also much bigger because no restaurants.

 

Do you find that to be economical vs paying the $5 fee for Kroger grocery pick up? Whenever I’ve looked at grocery prices on amazon they’ve always been way too expensive even with Prime. But it only takes five minutes to drive to my grocery store. If I lived in a bigger city, the higher amazon prices would probably be a savings over the longer drive.

[Casey]

We've shifted maybe 80-90% of our grocery budget to Amazon, which is now also much bigger because no restaurants.

 

Do you find that to be economical vs paying the $5 fee for Kroger grocery pick up? Whenever I’ve looked at grocery prices on amazon they’ve always been way too expensive even with Prime. But it only takes five minutes to drive to my grocery store. If I lived in a bigger city, the higher amazon prices would probably be a savings over the longer drive.

 

Good question. I've not done a lot of comparison w/ say Kroger, mostly because we don't have a car and are already saving a lot by cooking at home much more. I could definitely save 5$ by being more rigorous in either what we buy or where, but haven't found that to be worth it. As you might guess w/ no car, we are in a big city.

[Jurgis]

Still not buying groceries on Amazon/WholeFoods-delivery. Apart from specific food items that I don't call groceries.

 

Groceries are still too idiosyncratic to be bought online. I buy blueberries or raspberries or blackberries in the store. Which ones depend on price and on how they look. Can't explain that in online order. Grapes - I only buy grapes if I know they gonna be sweet. Can't do that online either. Same with pretty much all other fruits.

 

Plus with the pandemic you have the shortages. They may claim to have toilet paper when you order, but it's not there when they prepare the delivery. Same with other items. You can do substitutions in some services, but that also becomes a game of whack-a-mole. You can't say "buy any gel dishwasher detergent, but cheapest preferred, and no powder or tablets".

 

Edit: haven't started buying clothes on Amazon/online either, since people are talking Macy's etc. Can't buy clothes, shoes online. Yeah, I know you can return. Still sucks.

[Liberty]

Shareholder letter is out:

 

https://ir.aboutamazon.com/files/doc_financials/2020/ar/2019-Shareholder-Letter.pdf

[rkbabang]

Still not buying groceries on Amazon/WholeFoods-delivery. Apart from specific food items that I don't call groceries.

 

Groceries are still too idiosyncratic to be bought online. I buy blueberries or raspberries or blackberries in the store. Which ones depend on price and on how they look. Can't explain that in online order. Grapes - I only buy grapes if I know they gonna be sweet. Can't do that online either. Same with pretty much all other fruits.

 

Plus with the pandemic you have the shortages. They may claim to have toilet paper when you order, but it's not there when they prepare the delivery. Same with other items. You can do substitutions in some services, but that also becomes a game of whack-a-mole. You can't say "buy any gel dishwasher detergent, but cheapest preferred, and no powder or tablets".

 

Edit: haven't started buying clothes on Amazon/online either, since people are talking Macy's etc. Can't buy clothes, shoes online. Yeah, I know you can return. Still sucks.

 

I haven't started buying groceries online either this year, I tried peapod from Stop & Shop years ago and liked it, but S&S pulled out of NH and the grocery stores I go to now are all so close to my house that it isn't worth the bother of online ordering.

 

I don't buy clothes online, but I don't buy clothes very often anyway.  My wife buys clothes online, especially now that you can just drop off Amazon returns at Whole Foods, she just tries it on and if it doesn't fit drops it off at whole foods and has Amazon send her a different size or just returns it if she doesn't like it.  It isn't much of a hasle unless you needed the clothes immediately.

 

[Castanza]

Still not buying groceries on Amazon/WholeFoods-delivery. Apart from specific food items that I don't call groceries.

 

Groceries are still too idiosyncratic to be bought online. I buy blueberries or raspberries or blackberries in the store. Which ones depend on price and on how they look. Can't explain that in online order. Grapes - I only buy grapes if I know they gonna be sweet. Can't do that online either. Same with pretty much all other fruits.

 

Plus with the pandemic you have the shortages. They may claim to have toilet paper when you order, but it's not there when they prepare the delivery. Same with other items. You can do substitutions in some services, but that also becomes a game of whack-a-mole. You can't say "buy any gel dishwasher detergent, but cheapest preferred, and no powder or tablets".

 

Edit: haven't started buying clothes on Amazon/online either, since people are talking Macy's etc. Can't buy clothes, shoes online. Yeah, I know you can return. Still sucks.

 

I haven't started buying groceries online either this year, I tried peapod from Stop & Shop years ago and liked it, but S&S pulled out of NH and the grocery stores I go to now are all so close to my house that it isn't worth the bother of online ordering.

 

I don't buy clothes online, but I don't buy clothes very often anyway.  My wife buys clothes online, especially now that you can just drop off Amazon returns at Whole Foods, she just tries it on and if it doesn't fit drops it off at whole foods and has Amazon send her a different size or just returns it if she doesn't like it.  It isn't much of a hasle unless you needed the clothes immediately.

 

Every grocery chain near me is offering their own version of online grocery delivery. Wegmans charges $3 for a grocery order. Takes 2 days to get your order (not a big deal imo). Maybe Amazon is catching on more in big cities, but everywhere else there seems to be plenty of other viable options. Plus there is the local chain branded food which has some price/familiarity leverage. Why pay Amazon for brand name stuff when I can keep getting my knock off store brands?

 

[Aurelius]

A friendly reminder from Jeff  8)

 

To our shareowners:

 

A dreamy business offering has at least four characteristics. Customers love it, it can grow to very large

size, it has strong returns on capital, and it’s durable in time – with the potential to endure for decades. When you

find one of these, don’t just swipe right, get married.

 

[clutch]

A friendly reminder from Jeff  8)

 

To our shareowners:

 

A dreamy business offering has at least four characteristics. Customers love it, it can grow to very large

size, it has strong returns on capital, and it’s durable in time – with the potential to endure for decades. When you

find one of these, don’t just swipe right, get married.

 

He met his current wife on Tinder?

[Liberty]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-delivery/amazon-prepping-to-launch-super-fast-grocery-delivery-service-in-uk-the-grocer-idUSKBN21Z2DL

 

Amazon’s new service is aimed at bringing rapid grocery delivery to almost 40% of UK households by the end of the year, the suppliers briefed on the program told The Grocer. Their products will be picked and packed at the refitted Amazon depots.

[Morgan]

Just an update:

 

A few of the amazon orders I didn’t cancel from early April were just delivered. Amazon said they’d be delivered by the end of April. Also, I ordered a few things 2-3 days ago and they arrived today. All painting/plumbing supply type stuff for my company. Not really essential products.  Anyways, amazon seems to have gotten a hold on its back log of orders.

[Spekulatius]

Just an update:

 

A few of the amazon orders I didn’t cancel from early April were just delivered. Amazon said they’d be delivered by the end of April. Also, I ordered a few things 2-3 days ago and they arrived today. All painting/plumbing supply type stuff for my company. Not really essential products.  Anyways, amazon seems to have gotten a hold on its back log of orders.

 

Yes, mentioned likewise above. I don’t let long lead times discourage me any more since most things are coming much faster. It’s a godsend to have prime now, since it saves so many trips.. They probably should advertise:

 

“America runs on Amazon Prime now!” And it would be somewhat true.

 

It’s one of those stocks where intrinsic value has increased while a lot of their competition is on the ropes.

[clutch]

I ordered an item (non-essential) in early April and the estimated delivery time was early May. Two days ago I ordered some vitamins and the non-essential was shipped together with the vitamins with one-day shipping. I thought the way Amazon handled these orders and shipment was pretty smart.

[Liberty]

"After years of working almost exclusively on long-term projects and pushing day-to-day management to his deputies, Mr. Bezos, 56, has turned back to the here-and-now problems facing Amazon”

 

"He is holding daily calls to help make decisions about inventory and testing, as well as how and when — down to the minute — Amazon responds to public criticism. He has talked to government officials.”

 

"Mr. Bezos helped decide which features to remove from the Amazon website to reduce customer demand, such as burying its popular page promoting daily deals, one of the people said. He also approved delaying Prime Day, the company’s summer shopping extravaganza.”

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/technology/bezos-amazon-coronavirus.html

[vinod1]

Reading Bezos annual letter and the sheer amount of essential services being delivered by Amazon, it looks like he is doing more for the country than Trump to get over Covid-19.

 

What an amazing person!

 

Vinod

[Liberty]

Reading Bezos annual letter and the sheer amount of essential services being delivered by Amazon, it looks like he is doing more for the country than Trump to get over Covid-19.

 

What an amazing person!

 

Vinod

 

And in February he created a $10bn fund to fight climate change:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bezos_Earth_Fund