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AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.

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Spekulatius Newbie

Spekulatius

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Just an update:

 

A few of the amazon orders I didn’t cancel from early April were just delivered. Amazon said they’d be delivered by the end of April. Also, I ordered a few things 2-3 days ago and they arrived today. All painting/plumbing supply type stuff for my company. Not really essential products.  Anyways, amazon seems to have gotten a hold on its back log of orders.

 

Yes, mentioned likewise above. I don’t let long lead times discourage me any more since most things are coming much faster. It’s a godsend to have prime now, since it saves so many trips.. They probably should advertise:

 

“America runs on Amazon Prime now!” And it would be somewhat true.

 

It’s one of those stocks where intrinsic value has increased while a lot of their competition is on the ropes.

 

Anecdotally, Amazon seems to have solved their delivery bottleneck issues, at least in my area. I have ordered various items recently and they are all delivered very fast - within 1-2 days. Also, the driver now seem to always send a pic of the package when they deliver. Before that was more hit and miss.

 

FWIW, we were outside of the 1 day deliver zone (due to our somewhat rural location ) but it seems like we are now borderline in.

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Morgan Newbie

Morgan

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Just an update:

 

A few of the amazon orders I didn’t cancel from early April were just delivered. Amazon said they’d be delivered by the end of April. Also, I ordered a few things 2-3 days ago and they arrived today. All painting/plumbing supply type stuff for my company. Not really essential products.  Anyways, amazon seems to have gotten a hold on its back log of orders.

 

Yes, mentioned likewise above. I don’t let long lead times discourage me any more since most things are coming much faster. It’s a godsend to have prime now, since it saves so many trips.. They probably should advertise:

 

“America runs on Amazon Prime now!” And it would be somewhat true.

 

It’s one of those stocks where intrinsic value has increased while a lot of their competition is on the ropes.

 

Anecdotally, Amazon seems to have solved their delivery bottleneck issues, at least in my area. I have ordered various items recently and they are all delivered very fast - within 1-2 days. Also, the driver now seem to always send a pic of the package when they deliver. Before that was more hit and miss.

 

FWIW, we were outside of the 1 day deliver zone (due to our somewhat rural location ) but it seems like we are now borderline in.

 

Hmm. I’ve been having longer wait times for some of my items. Some things come quickly, but probably half of my orders take 3-10 days. I’m ordering weird things though (parts for appliances, tools, buildings supplies, etc). Maybe that makes a difference?

 

One thing that’s very annoying is so many things are labeled prime, but have 3-10 day delivery times. What the heck is this?! Why pay for prime if it’s just slow shipping for free?

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Saluki Newbie

Saluki

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The grocery thing has always puzzled me.  Supermarkets make 2-4% margins in good locations and negative margins in bad locations.  Their AWS business is growing like a weed and very sticky for its customers (incredibly high switching costs), why get involved with a low margin business where you have crazy people yelling at your staff over wilted lettuce. 

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glorysk87 Newbie

glorysk87

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The grocery thing has always puzzled me.  Supermarkets make 2-4% margins in good locations and negative margins in bad locations.  Their AWS business is growing like a weed and very sticky for its customers (incredibly high switching costs), why get involved with a low margin business where you have crazy people yelling at your staff over wilted lettuce.

 

I don't work on AMZN's strategy team so this is speculation but I'd assume:

 

A) They think they can operate the business and higher-than-normal margins

B) It helps act as a customer acquisition tool for Prime subscriptions

C) It lowers Prime churn

 

Which one can safely assume should increase the average LTV of Prime subscribers by a decent amount.

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rkbabang Newbie

rkbabang

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The grocery thing has always puzzled me.  Supermarkets make 2-4% margins in good locations and negative margins in bad locations.  Their AWS business is growing like a weed and very sticky for its customers (incredibly high switching costs), why get involved with a low margin business where you have crazy people yelling at your staff over wilted lettuce.

 

I don't work on AMZN's strategy team so this is speculation but I'd assume:

 

A) They think they can operate the business and higher-than-normal margins

B) It helps act as a customer acquisition tool for Prime subscriptions

C) It lowers Prime churn

 

Which one can safely assume should increase the average LTV of Prime subscribers by a decent amount.

 

If A is not true and they run it at break-even. B & C make it worth the investment.

 

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Liberty Newbie

Liberty

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They probably think they can reduce labor costs with Go style automation, and it's not the margins that matter, it's the ROIC. If you can get lots of turns of inventory and huge revenues out of it, it can move the needle. It's a large enough market to matter to a company of Amazon's size.

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fareastwarriors Newbie

fareastwarriors

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/amazon-is-on-a-hiring-spree-amid-widespread-coronavirus-layoffs-and-record-unemployment.html

 

Amazon said Wednesday it would hire 33,000 corporate and technology workers across the U.S. in the coming months.

 

Amazon has already grown its global headcount 34% so far this year.

 

...

 

An Amazon spokesperson said the corporate and technology jobs will be located across the country, not just in major cities.

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Jurgis Newbie

Jurgis

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At first, I was excited about the stores without the checkout lines, but now I'm scared. They'll have facial recognition + fingerprints. That's crazy.

 

What's the big difference?

 

They already know what you buy.

Now they'll also know what you steal?  ::)  8)

 

(Oh wait, they already have cameras for that in regular shops... if they care)

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rkbabang Newbie

rkbabang

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At first, I was excited about the stores without the checkout lines, but now I'm scared. They'll have facial recognition + fingerprints. That's crazy.

 

What's the big difference?

 

They already know what you buy.

Now they'll also know what you steal?  ::)  8)

 

(Oh wait, they already have cameras for that in regular shops... if they care)

 

In retail shrink comes from the employees as well as the customers.  Amazon will reduce theft both by having super surveillance and by having fewer employees.  I don't think I'd voluntarily give them my fingerprints though.  That is just a little too far with the super surveillance.  With the phones, at least on Apple, they claimed that the fingerprint never left the phone and was encrypted inside your own device.  This seems like Amazon would just have your prints on file in a database somewhere.

 

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