Liberty Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 They sure are trying lots of things: https://thehub.amazon.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayGatsby Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 They sure are trying lots of things: https://thehub.amazon.com We have that exact service in my apartment building... think they put it in about a year ago. Not a new idea, but it is helpful: http://www.parcelpending.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 How does anyone figure there's value at the current level? They have a market cap of 500B. Did 600m operating income in the last Q. (I'm in KCLarkins camp - they could use their stock to acquire profitable companies, but that would signal it was overvalued, and if they keep buying B&M, there's a big multiple re-rating - from something like 200x to 20x?). Not trying to piss anyone off, but how do you guys figure there's value? If they increase margins by raising prices, growth will slow, and then there's a risk it would be rated on profitability and not potential. And if it does re-rate, their stock comp. will be even more dilutive I think, plus you risk upsetting employees that might lose money. Don't you risk the flywheel starts spinning the wrong way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 There's a ton of value in AWS, but I don't know what the growth and margins will be over the next 5-10 years. If it is high, investors can do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Anyone seen this? https://www.bartelldrugs.com/services/primenow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Anyone seen this? https://www.bartelldrugs.com/services/primenow/ Dan Hurley pointed out that it's been around for a while: https://www.bartelldrugs.com/events/event/bartell-drugs-launches-amazon-prime-now-online-ordering-and-delivery-service/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 How does anyone figure there's value at the current level? They have a market cap of 500B. Did 600m operating income in the last Q. (I'm in KCLarkins camp - they could use their stock to acquire profitable companies, but that would signal it was overvalued, and if they keep buying B&M, there's a big multiple re-rating - from something like 200x to 20x?). Not trying to piss anyone off, but how do you guys figure there's value? If they increase margins by raising prices, growth will slow, and then there's a risk it would be rated on profitability and not potential. And if it does re-rate, their stock comp. will be even more dilutive I think, plus you risk upsetting employees that might lose money. Don't you risk the flywheel starts spinning the wrong way? The only way to truly justify the price is to look back at periods when they cut back on reinvestment (e.g. the great recession) and see where free cash flow margins were. Then you need to assume that once a business segment is mature, they can earn those margins. If you accept that underlying premise, then you can assume maybe 10% free cash flow margins, and then put a reasonable multiple on that. In that case, 2-3x revenue is not unreasonable. But this all assumes you are fine with the idea that current margins are not "real" in a certain sense and eventually they will run out of new areas to venture into (and thus the current reinvestment rate is unsustainable over the very long term). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walkie518 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 With the purchase of whole foods, Amazon, in one fell swoop, will increase its market (in the US) from $5Tr to $5.8Tr. What happens when Amazon builds its advertising platform as well as an online pharmacy? Google trades at $648B. Facebook trades at $492B. Amazon trades at $475B. The GLOBAL ad market is around $486B according to a recent digiday article https://digiday.com/marketing/charts-forecasting-2017/. And the growth of this market hinges on digital ad spend. As Amazon takes share from Google and Facebook in advertising (as Amazon is apt to do with better pricing and with ~55% of shopping search), what happens to FB's and GOOG's profit margins? They'll have to compete against the subsidizing the sales of private brand batteries and paper shredders (with massive gross margins)... In one sense, if Amazon traded as if it were 20% or 30% of the US retail and grocery markets, you would think that $4.8Tr wouldn't be so out of line if that wasn't such a big number? In another sense, trading at a $1Tr market cap also doesn't seem out of line considering that Amazon understates its sales (reporting of net sales, not gross sales). And if retail is to be judged on the basis of Sales/EV... What about price to cash flow? BABA, maybe the closest comp to Amazon, generated 80m CNY or roughly $12B USD last year. Amazon generated $16.4B (10K not rolling 12M). BABA trades at 32x cash flow from operations. If Amazon traded at 32x its market cap would be $525B, or ~11% higher. What happens if Netflix doesn't make it? Who will be there to pick up the pieces? I can only think of one company particularly since Netflix is paying for AWS to increase its footprint. It's more likely that Amazon becomes too powerful that regulators split it up, and when it does, we'll likely see some of those multiples on today's price realized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Meb Faber is selling his book for $0 (Kindle) or $25 (paperback). 3rd party sellers are offering it for $285 (used) or $2400 (new). https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B010TSZ7N2/ref=dp_olp_all_mbc?ie=UTF8&condition=all I'm not sure how this scam works but 3rd party sales on Amazon are a "sewer". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Meb Faber is selling his book for $0 (Kindle) or $25 (paperback). 3rd party sellers are offering it for $285 (used) or $2400 (new). https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B010TSZ7N2/ref=dp_olp_all_mbc?ie=UTF8&condition=all I'm not sure how this scam works but 3rd party sales on Amazon are a "sewer". There is no scam. But, yeah, 3rd party sellers can put up any price and if there are no other sellers at lower price and buyer is desperate (or not price sensitive), you get the sale. This is true for any similar market (eBay, Alibaba probably). This is how I make huge fake money in online games and how some people make real money on Amazon, eBay or Alibaba... I agree though that it makes some people negative about Amazon. I also agree that crappy 3rd party prices and possibly fake products from 3rd parties hurt Amazon ( while at the same time helping their sales and giving them high margins ). FYI, it hurts Walmart online too. I've already posted twice about their 3rd party electronics offerings from possibly fake or grey markets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 This is true for any similar market (eBay, Alibaba probably). I guess this is the problem. On eBay, Craigslist, and Alibaba, I am expect the transaction to be fraudulent or counterfeit or stolen. Which is why I shop on Amazon. Here is another example: https://www.polygon.com/2017/3/30/15124114/nintendo-switch-scam-amazon Edit to add: This is actually one reason I'm not convinced that Amazon will succeed in Industrial Supply (or pharmacy for that matter). It's one thing when a consumer get's counterfeit Birkenstock's. But companies won't be willing to wade through pages of shady sellers just to save 10% on industrial supplies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 This is true for any similar market (eBay, Alibaba probably). I guess this is the problem. On eBay, Craigslist, and Alibaba, I am expect the transaction to be fraudulent or counterfeit or stolen. Which is why I shop on Amazon. Here is another example: https://www.polygon.com/2017/3/30/15124114/nintendo-switch-scam-amazon Edit to add: This is actually one reason I'm not convinced that Amazon will succeed in Industrial Supply (or pharmacy for that matter). It's one thing when a consumer get's counterfeit Birkenstock's. But companies won't be willing to wade through pages of shady sellers just to save 10% on industrial supplies. I'd think pharma would be roped off for trusted partners & Amazon Fulfillment only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 This is true for any similar market (eBay, Alibaba probably). I guess this is the problem. On eBay, Craigslist, and Alibaba, I am expect the transaction to be fraudulent or counterfeit or stolen. Which is why I shop on Amazon. Here is another example: https://www.polygon.com/2017/3/30/15124114/nintendo-switch-scam-amazon Edit to add: This is actually one reason I'm not convinced that Amazon will succeed in Industrial Supply (or pharmacy for that matter). It's one thing when a consumer get's counterfeit Birkenstock's. But companies won't be willing to wade through pages of shady sellers just to save 10% on industrial supplies. Just to be clear (and sorry I am beating a rather dead horse here): I bought my Nikon B700 on Amazon from Amazon (not 3rd party), even though 3rd parties were $100 cheaper to get original item. But I did not buy it on Walmart.com since Walmart only has it from 3rd parties. There don't carry Walmart sourced item at all. Now, of course, regular people may not distinguish products on Amazon that are from Amazon and products on Amazon that are from 3rd parties. And that's an issue. Also an issue for Walmart, but perhaps they don't give a crap. Edit: BTW the electronics has been like that for ages... I wonder if you're unhappy because you just found out this... I've been buying stuff from 3rd parties on Amazon for >10 years now... Programs, games. Sometimes you get "Norton Antivirus for Africa Only Not for sale in US" for $10 instead of paying $60. And it's just fine... maybe. Sometimes you get broken fake stuff... Which is mostly because you were cheap and risked to buy 3rd party from Chinese sellers. It's not news for me at all. But I can see that it might be an issue for less informed people. The question is really if they really encounter if more nowadays and if they transfer their experience to their opinion about Amazon. Edit2: And yeah Amazon is really great on watching your back and refunding for the fake broken stuff. But yeah it's a bit of a hassle. Also if you really don't want grey market, you have to buy Amazon-proper only. Cause in some cases you can't spot the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 I wonder if you're unhappy because you just found out this... For me, the problem is that I can't trust Amazon prices. I need to price check at a more reputable retailer to make sure I'm not being ripped off. But Walmart and BestBuy and NewEgg all sell 3rd party crap too. Usually at inflated prices. So I can't trust their prices either. Only one I really trust is Costco but they have limited selection. I can usually trust the price on products sold directly by Amazon but they have limited selection. Edit to add: The reason why I bring this up now, is that I just assumed these crazy inflated prices were just a Canadian Amazon problem since all the Amazon bulls are so excited about the marketplace. But clearly it is a problem in the U.S. too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 I wonder if you're unhappy because you just found out this... For me, the problem is that I can't trust Amazon prices. I need to price check at a more reputable retailer to make sure I'm not being ripped off. But Walmart and BestBuy and NewEgg all sell 3rd party crap too. Usually at inflated prices. So I can't trust their prices either. Only one I really trust is Costco but they have limited selection. I can usually trust the price on products sold directly by Amazon but they have limited selection. Edit to add: The reason why I bring this up now, is that I just assumed these crazy inflated prices were just a Canadian Amazon problem since all the Amazon bulls are so excited about the marketplace. But clearly it is a problem in the U.S. too. What is a "correct" price? The correct price is what a buyer is willing to pay and a seller is willing to accept. You should see differing prices depending on where you look, there is no central authority setting the prices of things. If the price seems too high everywhere (Amazon, ebay, best buy, etc), maybe that is because no one is willing to sell you what you want at a price you are willing to pay. A seller's price is only foolish if he ends up not selling his products at all (i.e. no one is willing to buy at the price he is willing to sell). If someone else does buy who are we to say his price was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 The reason why I bring this up now, is that I just assumed these crazy inflated prices were just a Canadian Amazon problem since all the Amazon bulls are so excited about the marketplace. But clearly it is a problem in the U.S. too. Ah, OK. 8) I am not Amazon bull on investment side. I'm in the "great company, won't talk about the stock price" camp. I like Amazon as a customer. Yesterday I bought a bunch of Russian books from 3rd parties that otherwise I'd had to buy from some Russian-book sites for more. Yeah, there were fun issues (some of the books are listed using Cyrillic name of the author, some Latinized, some yet another version of Latinized name) and yeah some books are way overpriced (didn't buy these). I'm really not a bull on the marketplace, not a bear either. It has plusses and minuses both for Amazon as a company and me as a customer. I think Amazon should segregate (ah what a word) 3rd party sellers more but Bezos knows better I guess. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 There's no such thing as a free lunch. 3rd party sellers come with pros and cons. They increase the number of SKUs available and sometimes provide more competitive prices (in many cases the lower price for items is from 3rd party sellers), but if you open up your platform to 3rd parties, you'll get some bad ones. As long as Amazon does their best and keeps working on getting better at weeding out the bad ones, I think the positives outweigh the negatives. I've bought many things from 3rd parties on Amazon that I probably wouldn't have bought form eBay, and generally the transactions went without a problem. In a perfect world, every 3rd party seller would be just as reliable and competitive as Amazon itself, but that's not realistic. FBA certainly helps make them faster, as long as they keep the counterfeit problem under control (generally I've been pleased with their customer service and if there's a problem they make it good, so that's a good last line of defense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 I would bet that any online retailer uses dynamic pricing. The same way the bodega sells umbrellas at double the price when it's raining outside. Your best bet is to price check vs other retailers, and use those price tracking websites (camelcamelcamel.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 I would bet that any online retailer uses dynamic pricing. This is not dynamic pricing. Offering an entirely unremarkable book for 100x the price on Amazon.com is clearly a scam. I'm just not smart enough to understand the scam. And as the author pointed out, this is actually fraud. The seller's (who have 99% rating) are using fake ISBN to trick Amazon into thinking these books are unique "SKUs". There are ways to implement a safer marketplace but I think Amazon's focus on profit-less growth is a key enabler to these scammers. Amazon is willing to "eat" the costs of the fraud so that they can increase third party sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santayana Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 I own a couple of brick and mortar used book stores. I used to sell some items through Amazon but stopped doing so because of a) the large percentage Amazon was taking of each sale, and b) their "customer is always right" approach which led to having to give refunds to customers who said they changed their mind about the book, but never sent it back, or in the case of textbooks would send it back after the quarter ended. When you see those outrageous prices for an item it is usually a guarantee that the seller does not have that item in stock. The plan is to take your order, and then order a cheaper copy of the item from another 3rd party seller using your name and address. Why some people order those more expensive items, I don't know, but I've seen enough evidence to know that they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyow Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 http://searsholdings.com/press-releases/pr/2051 http://blog.searsholdings.com/eddie-lampert/kenmore-products-now-available-on-amazon-com/ I have a question regarding this for people who understand amazon. the terms of the deal were not disclosed. i am trying to wrap my head around this, this is the first time amazon has partnered with someone to sell home appliances. How would amazon look at this deal, is: - sears just another seller or - sears a strategic partner (with the logistic capabilities and a home services/installation/warranty business), they will use to aggressively enter the home appliance market. i.e. more like a long term partnership where they mainly push the kenmore products on amazon? any insights would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardGibbons Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 I've negotiated with Amazon in the past. They likely view the partnership as "Sears is just another seller". While they may view large appliances as a strategic target, it's very unlikely they view Sears as a "strategic partner" in the same way a different company might. Amazon is almost certainly negotiating with other appliance makers at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cameron Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 http://searsholdings.com/press-releases/pr/2051 http://blog.searsholdings.com/eddie-lampert/kenmore-products-now-available-on-amazon-com/ I have a question regarding this for people who understand amazon. the terms of the deal were not disclosed. i am trying to wrap my head around this, this is the first time amazon has partnered with someone to sell home appliances. How would amazon look at this deal, is: - sears just another seller or - sears a strategic partner (with the logistic capabilities and a home services/installation/warranty business), they will use to aggressively enter the home appliance market. i.e. more like a long term partnership where they mainly push the kenmore products on amazon? any insights would be helpful. ask borders how that "partnership" went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schin Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Can someone name who Amazon would consider as a "strategic partner"? Anyone strategic they would try to buy out. Zappos. etc. I don't think Amazon look at anything like partnerships... it's us or a seller to fill traffic.... "Amazoned" -- when they see the numbers and decide to create their own brand. Batteries. etc. How would amazon look at this deal, is: - sears just another seller or - sears a strategic partner (with the logistic capabilities and a home services/installation/warranty business), they will use to aggressively enter the home appliance market. i.e. more like a long term partnership where they mainly push the kenmore products on amazon? any insights would be helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyow Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 http://searsholdings.com/press-releases/pr/2051 http://blog.searsholdings.com/eddie-lampert/kenmore-products-now-available-on-amazon-com/ I have a question regarding this for people who understand amazon. the terms of the deal were not disclosed. i am trying to wrap my head around this, this is the first time amazon has partnered with someone to sell home appliances. How would amazon look at this deal, is: - sears just another seller or - sears a strategic partner (with the logistic capabilities and a home services/installation/warranty business), they will use to aggressively enter the home appliance market. i.e. more like a long term partnership where they mainly push the kenmore products on amazon? any insights would be helpful. ask borders how that "partnership" went. that is your insight? ask borders? which border? mexican/US border? new contender for worst poster on cobf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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