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There's also a long New Yorker piece (but that's redundant) about Amazon from yesterday:

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/10/21/is-amazon-unstoppable?currentPage=all

 

It's funny how many really smart people have been wrong about Amazon.  I found a bunch of Michael Burry posts from when he was posting on a bulletin board and he was comparing Barnes and Noble (good) to Amazon (bad).  After years of being wrong about this company I now own a tiny bit (schmuck insurance!) so that one day my grandkids don't ask me why i never bought amazon if I really was as smart as claimed to be. 

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https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/migration-complete-amazons-consumer-business-just-turned-off-its-final-oracle-database/

 

"Amazon’s Consumer Business Just Turned off its Final Oracle Database" ("We migrated 75 petabytes of internal data stored in nearly 7,500 Oracle databases to multiple AWS database services")

 

Cost Reduction – We reduced our database costs by over 60% on top of the heavily discounted rate we negotiated based on our scale. Customers regularly report cost savings of 90% by switching from Oracle to AWS.

Performance Improvements – Latency of our consumer-facing applications was reduced by 40%.

Administrative Overhead – The switch to managed services reduced database admin overhead by 70%.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/amazon-acquires-digital-health-start-up-health-navigator.html

 

Amazon has just made its second acquisition in the health-care space, snapping up a start-up called Health Navigator, which provides technology and services to digital health companies.

 

Health Navigator was founded in 2014 by David Thompson, the CEO. Thompson is well known in the medical sector for developing a set of protocols, called Schmitt-Thompson, which became the standard way for nurses and other clinicians to guide patients to the right place, typically via call centers.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/amazon-acquires-digital-health-start-up-health-navigator.html

 

Amazon has just made its second acquisition in the health-care space, snapping up a start-up called Health Navigator, which provides technology and services to digital health companies.

 

Health Navigator was founded in 2014 by David Thompson, the CEO. Thompson is well known in the medical sector for developing a set of protocols, called Schmitt-Thompson, which became the standard way for nurses and other clinicians to guide patients to the right place, typically via call centers.

Once someone reaches an emergency room, a formal triage process is performed (trial based on guidelines and historical performance). For reasons that remain unclear, a void remains to help people self-triage before making the decision to go to an emergency room or a medical clinic. It turns out (for various subjective reasons and info asymmetry) that people, in general, a very poor at deciding where and when to consult. A relatively rare occurrence is that some people don't consult when they should. More often, many people need simple reassurance or a simple way to deal with the issue. Well-built and often incredibly simple protocols and algorithms (which can take the form of telephone assistance and soon smartphone application with some kind of AI) can make a huge difference. When introducing such tools, three questions need to be asked: 1-Does it work?, 2-Is it safe? and 3-Is it an efficient way to allocate capital.

There is a huge void to fill and it seems that Health Navigator is on the right track.

Interestingly, there is another huge void to be filled from the supply chain point of view. Even once people enter the 'system', there is large variability in clinical pathways, with many pathways being idiosyncratic and deviating from established guidelines without rational justification.

I like the idea that AMZN will try first with pilot projects before expanding into widening circles.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/amazon-acquires-digital-health-start-up-health-navigator.html

 

Amazon has just made its second acquisition in the health-care space, snapping up a start-up called Health Navigator, which provides technology and services to digital health companies.

 

Health Navigator was founded in 2014 by David Thompson, the CEO. Thompson is well known in the medical sector for developing a set of protocols, called Schmitt-Thompson, which became the standard way for nurses and other clinicians to guide patients to the right place, typically via call centers.

Once someone reaches an emergency room, a formal triage process is performed (trial based on guidelines and historical performance). For reasons that remain unclear, a void remains to help people self-triage before making the decision to go to an emergency room or a medical clinic. It turns out (for various subjective reasons and info asymmetry) that people, in general, a very poor at deciding where and when to consult. A relatively rare occurrence is that some people don't consult when they should. More often, many people need simple reassurance or a simple way to deal with the issue. Well-built and often incredibly simple protocols and algorithms (which can take the form of telephone assistance and soon smartphone application with some kind of AI) can make a huge difference. When introducing such tools, three questions need to be asked: 1-Does it work?, 2-Is it safe? and 3-Is it an efficient way to allocate capital.

There is a huge void to fill and it seems that Health Navigator is on the right track.

Interestingly, there is another huge void to be filled from the supply chain point of view. Even once people enter the 'system', there is large variability in clinical pathways, with many pathways being idiosyncratic and deviating from established guidelines without rational justification.

I like the idea that AMZN will try first with pilot projects before expanding into widening circles.

 

Great observations.  8)

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I think healthcare is the next vertical that Amazon will try to tackle. Between drug distribution, care services and HMO/ insurance there are quite a few areas where I can see them being a disruptive. The health care venture with BRK/ JPM and the small buys in mail order drugs etc are first steps to figure out how to make something work.

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When the rest of the world goes into turmoil and the USD strengthens during the period when it feels like "cannon balls rolling around the deck in the sea of turmoil" the US and all foreign US debt holders will be desperate for the USD to fall. Enter Amazon, the Great Patriot saving the day with Amazon Coin! Central Bank crypto currency is not possible because the evil governments running many illegal businesses like the CIA running drugs can't use a CB crypto because then why isn't the government stopping the drug business etc. now that they can track all transaction. How will bribes and prostitutes be paid? There has to be private cryptocurrencies, some of which have to be totally private.

 

Suppose Amazon coin is issued and is accepted by Amazon at par. Then suppose Amazon starts to pay expenses or refunds with the Amazon coin. How much would they have to discount it 20%? What if people could take Amazon coins as a reward for loyalty. What would the token sell for USD or BTC? A 20% discount? I think less. If Amazon makes positive cashflow, isn't it better off to give away, sell or pay for things with them up to their fixed costs? Sort of like commodity firms which continue to sell their coal or whatever so long as they cover there fixed costs. They will do so if they have a good use for the cash. And why shouldn't a private company be able to profit from its good reputation? The central bank monopoly no longer makes sense for the US now that the US will soon cease to be the reserve currency. Now the military's focus will move from preserving the USD reserve status to increasing the US government taxable corporate tax base. So...

 

I always suspected this would happen one day because how else will private companies take the enormous financial risks required to launch the Space Age. Don't we see private companies in many of the movies set in space like Alien and Avatar? If you plan to lassoo an Asteroid and it is worth Trillions or Quadrillions of dollars you had better have a space fleet to protect it. (Part of one might be sold to the Federal Reserve to allow the USD to start to be backed by gold. Who cares if the gold is in space so long as you can protect it. You are going to need a lot of gold in space to shield the crews and passengers from radiation.) Since the first ones to lassoo the asteroids get them I suspect there will be alliances formed and I suggest Bezos try to lassoo Lockheed Martin while he can. Amazon is one of the few companies that can issue sufficient Amazon Coins to finance a space fleet. The US government may not have sufficient resources to protect the space assets and likely prefers private companies to do so to better protect the anti-gravity propulsion systems, weapons, energy production etc.. The few companies that do this will have massive moat.

 

 

Perhaps Amazon and Lockheed Martin are both substantially undervalued.

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Ummmmm…..what?

 

On an actual Amazon topic...I wonder if the person who pushed the Whole Foods acquisition is still employed.

 

Whoever suggested it, Jeff Bezos approved it. I kind of like what they have done with Whole Foods - the lockers can be very useful and one of my local Foods stores has a craft beer bar. The discounts for Prime members are nice. Also, I think the end game is delivery:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/29/amazon-is-making-two-hour-grocery-delivery-free-for-all-prime-members.html

 

The area I live in is not supported yet ☹️.

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When the rest of the world goes into turmoil and the USD strengthens during the period when it feels like "cannon balls rolling around the deck in the sea of turmoil" the US and all foreign US debt holders will be desperate for the USD to fall. Enter Amazon, the Great Patriot saving the day with Amazon Coin! Central Bank crypto currency is not possible because the evil governments running many illegal businesses like the CIA running drugs can't use a CB crypto because then why isn't the government stopping the drug business etc. now that they can track all transaction. How will bribes and prostitutes be paid? There has to be private cryptocurrencies, some of which have to be totally private.

 

Suppose Amazon coin is issued and is accepted by Amazon at par. Then suppose Amazon starts to pay expenses or refunds with the Amazon coin. How much would they have to discount it 20%? What if people could take Amazon coins as a reward for loyalty. What would the token sell for USD or BTC? A 20% discount? I think less. If Amazon makes positive cashflow, isn't it better off to give away, sell or pay for things with them up to their fixed costs? Sort of like commodity firms which continue to sell their coal or whatever so long as they cover there fixed costs. They will do so if they have a good use for the cash. And why shouldn't a private company be able to profit from its good reputation? The central bank monopoly no longer makes sense for the US now that the US will soon cease to be the reserve currency. Now the military's focus will move from preserving the USD reserve status to increasing the US government taxable corporate tax base. So...

 

I always suspected this would happen one day because how else will private companies take the enormous financial risks required to launch the Space Age. Don't we see private companies in many of the movies set in space like Alien and Avatar? If you plan to lassoo an Asteroid and it is worth Trillions or Quadrillions of dollars you had better have a space fleet to protect it. (Part of one might be sold to the Federal Reserve to allow the USD to start to be backed by gold. Who cares if the gold is in space so long as you can protect it. You are going to need a lot of gold in space to shield the crews and passengers from radiation.) Since the first ones to lassoo the asteroids get them I suspect there will be alliances formed and I suggest Bezos try to lassoo Lockheed Martin while he can. Amazon is one of the few companies that can issue sufficient Amazon Coins to finance a space fleet. The US government may not have sufficient resources to protect the space assets and likely prefers private companies to do so to better protect the anti-gravity propulsion systems, weapons, energy production etc.. The few companies that do this will have massive moat.

 

 

Perhaps Amazon and Lockheed Martin are both substantially undervalued.

 

Couldn't agree more.

 

1. Finance a space fleet with Amazon coins

2. Lassoo the fucking asteroids.

3. Profit.

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When the rest of the world goes into turmoil and the USD strengthens during the period when it feels like "cannon balls rolling around the deck in the sea of turmoil" the US and all foreign US debt holders will be desperate for the USD to fall. Enter Amazon, the Great Patriot saving the day with Amazon Coin! Central Bank crypto currency is not possible because the evil governments running many illegal businesses like the CIA running drugs can't use a CB crypto because then why isn't the government stopping the drug business etc. now that they can track all transaction. How will bribes and prostitutes be paid? There has to be private cryptocurrencies, some of which have to be totally private.

 

Suppose Amazon coin is issued and is accepted by Amazon at par. Then suppose Amazon starts to pay expenses or refunds with the Amazon coin. How much would they have to discount it 20%? What if people could take Amazon coins as a reward for loyalty. What would the token sell for USD or BTC? A 20% discount? I think less. If Amazon makes positive cashflow, isn't it better off to give away, sell or pay for things with them up to their fixed costs? Sort of like commodity firms which continue to sell their coal or whatever so long as they cover there fixed costs. They will do so if they have a good use for the cash. And why shouldn't a private company be able to profit from its good reputation? The central bank monopoly no longer makes sense for the US now that the US will soon cease to be the reserve currency. Now the military's focus will move from preserving the USD reserve status to increasing the US government taxable corporate tax base. So...

 

I always suspected this would happen one day because how else will private companies take the enormous financial risks required to launch the Space Age. Don't we see private companies in many of the movies set in space like Alien and Avatar? If you plan to lassoo an Asteroid and it is worth Trillions or Quadrillions of dollars you had better have a space fleet to protect it. (Part of one might be sold to the Federal Reserve to allow the USD to start to be backed by gold. Who cares if the gold is in space so long as you can protect it. You are going to need a lot of gold in space to shield the crews and passengers from radiation.) Since the first ones to lassoo the asteroids get them I suspect there will be alliances formed and I suggest Bezos try to lassoo Lockheed Martin while he can. Amazon is one of the few companies that can issue sufficient Amazon Coins to finance a space fleet. The US government may not have sufficient resources to protect the space assets and likely prefers private companies to do so to better protect the anti-gravity propulsion systems, weapons, energy production etc.. The few companies that do this will have massive moat.

 

 

Perhaps Amazon and Lockheed Martin are both substantially undervalued.

 

Couldn't agree more.

 

1. Finance a space fleet with Amazon coins

2. Lassoo the fucking asteroids.

3. Profit.

 

I agree with Lassooing the asteroids.  Everyone talks about Musk, while Bezos is quietly working on his rockets, but Mars is a money wasting dead end.  Gravity ships and asteroid harvesting are the future of humanity in space.  Bezos has read Gerard K. O'Neill's "The High Frontier" so he knows this well.

 

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I don't follow AMZN too closely, but are others surprised AWS hasn't shown more operating leverage? Per the attached chart, quarterly AWS revenue has grown from $2.5 bn in Q1 2016 to $9.0 bn in Q3 2019, yet EBIT margins are flat at ~25%.

 

There's a lot of growth capex and opex in there, no doubt. They're still in land-grab mode.

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I don't follow AMZN too closely, but are others surprised AWS hasn't shown more operating leverage? Per the attached chart, quarterly AWS revenue has grown from $2.5 bn in Q1 2016 to $9.0 bn in Q3 2019, yet EBIT margins are flat at ~25%.

 

It’s probably by design. In their Q3 predetermining release, they mention 6  price cuts and a 44% reduction in storage costs this year. I presume they want to drive usage.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Guest cherzeca

rumor dejour is that Bezos will buy the Seahawks and amazon will build redskins a new stadium with built in sponsorship.  amazon may become a very big nfl (and other) advertiser soon, driving eyeballs to amazon original programming, grocery stores and website (where those eyeballs will be monetized through search advertising). 

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/amazon-cites-bias-in-microsoft-military-cloud-contract-win.html

 

"Unmistakable Bias"...LOL who the fuck is this guy kidding? Talking about bias? At best, pot meet kettle?

 

LOL again. Not to mention, theres nothing illegal about a buyer having preference.

 

I don’t know the details but Trump is on record saying the defense department should give the deal to Microsoft and also criticizing Bezos.  Then there was the problem that the original RFP was tailor made so amazon would win it.  So tailored that oracle sued that DoD was favoring amazon (Oracle lost one potential reason is because Amazon was the only at scale cloud provider anyway and so even if it was tailor made for amazon to win the military needed it).  Jedi would basically by itself increase Microsoft Azure revenue by something like 25% (Microsoft doesn’t break out azure revenue).  You can make a lot of arguments why Amazon was likely the only reasonable choice.  And then Trump got involved.  Not an open shut case that there was bias against amazon, but you can’t discount it especially considering Trump’s history. 

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/amazon-cites-bias-in-microsoft-military-cloud-contract-win.html

 

"Unmistakable Bias"...LOL who the fuck is this guy kidding? Talking about bias? At best, pot meet kettle?

 

LOL again. Not to mention, theres nothing illegal about a buyer having preference.

 

I think he has a point. Microsoft Azure does not even have the highest security clearance that is a requirement for this contract, yet they still won. Seems somewhat fishy to me.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/25/microsoft-wins-major-defense-cloud-contract-beating-out-amazon.html

 

Early in the process Amazon was seen as the favorite, partly because its AWS business won a deal with the CIA in 2013. Also Amazon had been certified at the highest existing security clearance level, while Microsoft sought to catch up.

 

Also it is illegal of or a government procurement  officers to have a preference.

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