SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp

[stahleyp]

I am a bit concerned about their $200 million cost cut program in the second half of this year. They should spend a bit more on the online database stuff. If they cut cost in other areas, that would be fine.

 

I wish your handle were "buxom blonde" instead of "muscleman".

 

EDIT:  The comment is about your new profile picture.

 

Sorry English is not my first language.

I searched for "buxom", and I got:

 

1. (esp of a woman) healthily plump, attractive, and vigorous

2. (of a woman) full-bosomed

 

Description of a woman? :o

 

I updated mine.  Now there is something better to look at.

 

;D ;D ;D ;D

 

Eric wins!  ;)

 

Thanks for that, ragu, The $2 million is based on performance (which, I'm assuming he's not getting currently). The $4.5 million is restricted stock, right? A quick glance looks like it.

[Luke 532]

This reminds me of UPromise... the program that puts money into a 529 for your kids whenever you get gas, go to a restaurant, etc.  Would be very cool if people ate at restaurants and went shopping as they normally do, and then at the end of the month received something along the lines saying "you have $15 in points to spend at ShopYourWay."  That could attract a ton of people.

 

http://boardvote.com/symbol/SHLD/communique/426485

 

New 'Shop Your Way (SM) Link' Connects Members to Popular Brands, Products and Services

 

HOFFMAN ESTATES, Ill., Aug. 26, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Sears and Kmart Shop Your Way members now have more ways to earn rewards points by linking an eligible* Visa credit or debit card to their Shop Your Way account, then using it at any number of Reward Partner merchants. Since the program began three months ago, Reward Partner merchants like Burger King® have already seen a 54 percent increase in new customers and a nine percent increase in visits from existing customers versus a non-enrolled control group. Members who enroll in the new Shop Your Way Link program earn rewards points that can be redeemed in-store, online or over the phone at Sears and Kmart.  Other participating Rewards Partner merchants include Popeyes®, Louisiana Kitchen, Picture People®, Public Storage and 1-800-Flowers.com.

 

"As students and parents head back to school they are looking for extra savings and more ways to earn rewards. Shop Your Way Link allows our members to earn points on everyday purchases made with popular restaurants, retailers and service providers and enjoy a more personalized and rewarding shopping experience with Sears and Kmart," said Imran Jooma, executive vice president and president, Marketing, Online, Pricing and Financial Services, Sears Holdings. "Through Shop Your Way, we are building relationships with tens of millions of members so we can offer a more personalized and rewarding shopping experience."

 

Through Shop Your Way, members can earn points with Rewards Partners in two ways:

Shop online with Web Rewards Partners – Members can earn points when they shop with a partner by clicking "View Offer" and then the "Shop Now" button. To shop with Rewards Partners online, visit shopyourway.com/rewardspartners/web.

Shop with participating Shop Your Way Link Rewards Partners – Members earn points by making purchases with their enrolled Visa card at Card Link Rewards Partners locations or websites. For a full list of Rewards Partners, visit shopyourway.com/rewardspartners/cardlink.

 

Shop Your Way Link is available only to members: there is no cost to join. Members enrolled in Shop Your Way Link also have exclusive and early access to special sales and offers. Members can link an eligible Visa credit or debit card by visiting shopyourway.com/link/account and completing a short registration process.

 

Shop Your Way is a free membership program and shopping community that offers rewards, personalized deals, product reviews, contests and sweepstakes. Through Shop Your Way, members can also earn and redeem Shop Your Way rewards points when they shop in Sears and Kmart. Members also enjoy exclusive perks like personalized deals and special shopping events.

 

Plus, members can interact with celebs like Adam Levine and Nicki Minaj on ShopYourWay.com to see exclusive messages, photos and videos from the stars, and get insider tips and entertainment and lifestyle news.

 

*Cards not eligible for the program include Visa Buxx (prepaid Visa), Flexible Spending Account (FSA) Visa cards, EBT (Electronic Benefits Transfer) Visa cards, Gift Cards and other Visa-branded cards whose transactions are not processed through the Visa U.S.A. payment system.  Members can enroll up to three Visa cards.

 

**Twinning analysis provided by Visa evaluated results by measuring spend by enrolled consumers versus a control group of similar non-enrolled accounts during the three-month measurement period.

[ERICOPOLY]

I am a bit concerned about their $200 million cost cut program in the second half of this year. They should spend a bit more on the online database stuff. If they cut cost in other areas, that would be fine.

 

I wish your handle were "buxom blonde" instead of "muscleman".

 

EDIT:  The comment is about your new profile picture.

 

Sorry English is not my first language.

I searched for "buxom", and I got:

 

1. (esp of a woman) healthily plump, attractive, and vigorous

2. (of a woman) full-bosomed

 

Description of a woman? :o

 

I updated mine.  Now there is something better to look at.

 

;D ;D ;D ;D

 

Eric wins!  ;)

 

Thanks for that, ragu, The $2 million is based on performance (which, I'm assuming he's not getting currently). The $4.5 million is restricted stock, right? A quick glance looks like it.

 

Now I just need a signature added to my posts:

 

"What would like first, your beer or your xxxxxxx backrub?"

 

EDIT:  Don't worry, I wouldn't really do that.

[stahleyp]

haha Eric.  ;D

 

Now...if only we could get muscle to change his avatar, too.  ;)  ;D ;D

 

 

[CorpRaider]

I'm tossing this one in "too hard" for now.  What piqued my interest (this year) was the formation of the Seritage Realty Trust, LLC.  I admit that when I first learned of its formation I thought, "they're going to spin that sucker, why else form a REIT when they already had the SHC Realty, LLC?"  I figured they were forming a REIT for spin because granny and pappy (and me too) much prefer to get the 1099 from their REITS to the insidious K-1 from the publicly traded partnerships.  But it appears to me that it is just another DE LLC, despite the addition of the "trust" like SHC (also its in the wrong state, the vast majority of REITS are domiciled in Maryland), so I appear to have been mistaken and remain in the dark.

[merkhet]

Looks like the short interest is up to 15,739,207 (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/shld/short-interest)

 

By my count, 95% of the unaccounted for shares (non-long-term holder shares) is now short. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArX667iB-WCRdFZRMEl4T29EQnRmUTZueE1XY09nSWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

[Grenville]

Looks like the short interest is up to 15,739,207 (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/shld/short-interest)

 

By my count, 95% of the unaccounted for shares (non-long-term holder shares) is now short. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArX667iB-WCRdFZRMEl4T29EQnRmUTZueE1XY09nSWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

 

That's a pretty big jump in short interest from the last report at 14mln!

[Luke 532]

We know the share count of Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch is now 83M+ (might be more if we add Chou at 683K shares and others, but let's just keep it at 83M).  106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  14M short = 61%.  And Lampert sold a ton of stock in ESL recently (except SHLD), Berkowitz opening up his fund to new money... curious if they'll ever add some more of if they'll just all of a sudden quit getting more concentrated in SHLD as they have been.  ;)

 

Now 15.7M short (thanks merkhet for the heads up).  Conservatively speaking (only Lampert, Berkowitz and Tisch counting as long-term holders), the math would be as follows:

106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  15.7M short = 68% conservatively

[cubsfan]

Looks like the short interest is up to 15,739,207 (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/shld/short-interest)

 

By my count, 95% of the unaccounted for shares (non-long-term holder shares) is now short. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArX667iB-WCRdFZRMEl4T29EQnRmUTZueE1XY09nSWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

 

Hmm...short interest is up 100% since May 15th.

 

Wow.

[BTShine]

This is his entire strategy -- it's kind of important to make it work.

 

Well, although he claims that SYW and online shopping are the core of the strategy, you have to keep in mind that online is only ~2% of sales. Most customers are probably not aware of the websites, and even most SYW members have probably not used the websites.

 

Very true. I have personally been carry a SYW membership card in my wallet since 2009 and I have never once even looked for an item on shopyourway.com

 

The main thing I love about the card is that you get 5% off everything you buy at Kmart when you pay with a Sears Mastercard.  By the way, I'd love to know how much gross margin is being impacted by this 5% off everything discount.

 

You've described the typical SYWR customer experience.  As we know, a tiny portion (~2%) of sales are online.  So, we can assume a tiny portion of SYWR purchases are online. 

 

Most customers know about their SYWR points and are drawn back to the store to use the points, and try to gain more points.  It also increases their affinity towards Sears/Kmart.

 

FCharlie, you said "By the way, I'd love to know how much gross margin is being impacted by this 5% off everything discount."  That's a great question!  I've been thinking about that for a while! 

 

We can see from pg 6 of their Q2 presentation (I've tried to attach this below), SYWR affected quarterly margin by $67 million Y-O-Y in the quarter.  Remember, this $67 million is the YOY change in hit to margins. So, that means the total SYWR's hit to margins is well above $67 million in Q2.  If SYWR use is ~50% higher that last year, then the SYWR's cost per quarter would be around $180 million.  Maybe SWYR use more than doubled and their quarterly cost is only $100 million per quarter...but, that still huge! 

 

SHLD_Q2_2013_Webcast_Pg_6.pdf

[muscleman]

This reminds me of UPromise... the program that puts money into a 529 for your kids whenever you get gas, go to a restaurant, etc.  Would be very cool if people ate at restaurants and went shopping as they normally do, and then at the end of the month received something along the lines saying "you have $15 in points to spend at ShopYourWay."  That could attract a ton of people.

 

http://boardvote.com/symbol/SHLD/communique/426485

 

New 'Shop Your Way (SM) Link' Connects Members to Popular Brands, Products and Services

 

HOFFMAN ESTATES, Ill., Aug. 26, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Sears and Kmart Shop Your Way members now have more ways to earn rewards points by linking an eligible* Visa credit or debit card to their Shop Your Way account, then using it at any number of Reward Partner merchants. Since the program began three months ago, Reward Partner merchants like Burger King® have already seen a 54 percent increase in new customers and a nine percent increase in visits from existing customers versus a non-enrolled control group. Members who enroll in the new Shop Your Way Link program earn rewards points that can be redeemed in-store, online or over the phone at Sears and Kmart.  Other participating Rewards Partner merchants include Popeyes®, Louisiana Kitchen, Picture People®, Public Storage and 1-800-Flowers.com.

 

"As students and parents head back to school they are looking for extra savings and more ways to earn rewards. Shop Your Way Link allows our members to earn points on everyday purchases made with popular restaurants, retailers and service providers and enjoy a more personalized and rewarding shopping experience with Sears and Kmart," said Imran Jooma, executive vice president and president, Marketing, Online, Pricing and Financial Services, Sears Holdings. "Through Shop Your Way, we are building relationships with tens of millions of members so we can offer a more personalized and rewarding shopping experience."

 

Through Shop Your Way, members can earn points with Rewards Partners in two ways:

Shop online with Web Rewards Partners – Members can earn points when they shop with a partner by clicking "View Offer" and then the "Shop Now" button. To shop with Rewards Partners online, visit shopyourway.com/rewardspartners/web.

Shop with participating Shop Your Way Link Rewards Partners – Members earn points by making purchases with their enrolled Visa card at Card Link Rewards Partners locations or websites. For a full list of Rewards Partners, visit shopyourway.com/rewardspartners/cardlink.

 

Shop Your Way Link is available only to members: there is no cost to join. Members enrolled in Shop Your Way Link also have exclusive and early access to special sales and offers. Members can link an eligible Visa credit or debit card by visiting shopyourway.com/link/account and completing a short registration process.

 

Shop Your Way is a free membership program and shopping community that offers rewards, personalized deals, product reviews, contests and sweepstakes. Through Shop Your Way, members can also earn and redeem Shop Your Way rewards points when they shop in Sears and Kmart. Members also enjoy exclusive perks like personalized deals and special shopping events.

 

Plus, members can interact with celebs like Adam Levine and Nicki Minaj on ShopYourWay.com to see exclusive messages, photos and videos from the stars, and get insider tips and entertainment and lifestyle news.

 

*Cards not eligible for the program include Visa Buxx (prepaid Visa), Flexible Spending Account (FSA) Visa cards, EBT (Electronic Benefits Transfer) Visa cards, Gift Cards and other Visa-branded cards whose transactions are not processed through the Visa U.S.A. payment system.  Members can enroll up to three Visa cards.

 

**Twinning analysis provided by Visa evaluated results by measuring spend by enrolled consumers versus a control group of similar non-enrolled accounts during the three-month measurement period.

 

hmm... This is quite impressive. Advertising networks, if used wisely, can be highly profitable. I think google depends almost entirely on advertising network to make money, and it is making huge cash flow each quarter. They can charge Burger King a decent fee on this.

 

Right now, I haven't seen any of these income reported in the 10-Q. Ubiquity, SWY enrollment fee, subleasing, etc. This is weird. Are they hiding these numbers on purpose?

[Luke 532]

Since the program began three months ago, Reward Partner merchants like Burger King® have already seen a 54 percent increase in new customers and a nine percent increase in visits from existing customers versus a non-enrolled control group. Members who enroll in the new Shop Your Way Link program earn rewards points that can be redeemed in-store, online or over the phone at Sears and Kmart.  Other participating Rewards Partner merchants include Popeyes®, Louisiana Kitchen, Picture People®, Public Storage and 1-800-Flowers.com.

 

Right now, I haven't seen any of these income reported in the 10-Q. Ubiquity, SWY enrollment fee, subleasing, etc. This is weird. Are they hiding these numbers on purpose?

 

buxomblonde muscleman  :), read the part I quoted again.  It's not ShopYourWay/Sears that is generating these numbers, it's companies in the program that are doing it.  Gives an idea that it can be effective for SHLD, but the numbers are based on other partners.

[Luke 532]

This is great for getting "sticky" customers... my wife and I bought some stuff from ShopYourWay the other day.  Today I got an e-mail encouraging me to use my points and offering the following:

Points Match Back: Redeem your points and we'll match back the points you've redeemed.

 

So, if I use my $22 (within 2 weeks from today) in points they'll reimburse those points to my account?  That's how I read the above quote.  If that's true then that would get me kind of excited about using those points (and it would be borderline insane not to use them).  I'm sure they can't offer this all the time but if they plan on doing this for your first few purchases that would be a great strategy.  By that time the customer would be hooked.

[Luke 532]

We know the share count of Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch is now 83M+ (might be more if we add Chou at 683K shares and others, but let's just keep it at 83M).  106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  14M short = 61%.  And Lampert sold a ton of stock in ESL recently (except SHLD), Berkowitz opening up his fund to new money... curious if they'll ever add some more of if they'll just all of a sudden quit getting more concentrated in SHLD as they have been.  ;)

 

Now 15.7M short (thanks merkhet for the heads up).  Conservatively speaking (only Lampert, Berkowitz and Tisch counting as long-term holders), the math would be as follows:

106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  15.7M short = 68% conservatively

 

A more realistic (and less conservative) calculation would result in something around 72%-74% short interest.  In reality this is still conservative, but more realistic than the calculation I posted above.

 

If 20% of Horizon Kinetics, Baker Street, Old West, Chou, Force Capital are long-term, then the short interest makes up 72% of the float.

 

If 30% of those names is long-term, then it's 74%.

 

I don't even want to think what Lampert is going to do with the $1B+ in cash he has in ESL (not counting possible redemptions), not to mention SHLD's liquidity (from the Q2 presentation). 

 

And the trend has been Berkowitz buying more and more every single quarter, while Lampert sold down 44% of all non-SHLD shares in ESL last quarter (and an additional 200,000 shares of AN a day or two after).

 

If Lampert is satisfied with his ownership percentage (and just wants to add a little more), he could make a tender offer and just crush the shorts any day.  Am I the only one that finds all of this incredibly intriguing? 

[ScottHall]

We know the share count of Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch is now 83M+ (might be more if we add Chou at 683K shares and others, but let's just keep it at 83M).  106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  14M short = 61%.  And Lampert sold a ton of stock in ESL recently (except SHLD), Berkowitz opening up his fund to new money... curious if they'll ever add some more of if they'll just all of a sudden quit getting more concentrated in SHLD as they have been.  ;)

 

Now 15.7M short (thanks merkhet for the heads up).  Conservatively speaking (only Lampert, Berkowitz and Tisch counting as long-term holders), the math would be as follows:

106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  15.7M short = 68% conservatively

 

A more realistic (and less conservative) calculation would result in something around 72%-74% short interest.  In reality this is still conservative, but more realistic than the calculation I posted above.

 

If 20% of Horizon Kinetics, Baker Street, Old West, Chou, Force Capital are long-term, then the short interest makes up 72% of the float.

 

If 30% of those names is long-term, then it's 74%.

 

I don't even want to think what Lampert is going to do with the $1B+ in cash he has in ESL (not counting possible redemptions), not to mention SHLD's liquidity (from the Q2 presentation). 

 

And the trend has been Berkowitz buying more and more every single quarter, while Lampert sold down 44% of all non-SHLD shares in ESL last quarter (and an additional 200,000 shares of AN a day or two after).

 

I really don't want to come across as a jerk, but would you please quit posting about details that are only barely different from what you had previously posted? The amount of value you are adding at the difference between 68% and 72% is very low.

 

There is very little that is being posted to this thread at this point that is insightful - it is mostly people who have convinced themselves that Sears is a good or bad investment and going down irrelevant rabbit holes to justify themselves. Sears may well be a good or a bad investment, but almost certainly not because of mostof what has been posted in the past couple dozen pages.

 

If the thread would stick to material facts about the business, I think it would be more useful. As it is, the incessant posts with little in the way of substance make the thread difficult to navigate and find the content of merit that has been posted here.

 

I don't have any jurisdiction here, so you obviously don't have to listen to me if you don't want to, but I do think that the thread and discussion would be of much higher quality if you did.

 

Best wishes.  :)

[Luke 532]

We know the share count of Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch is now 83M+ (might be more if we add Chou at 683K shares and others, but let's just keep it at 83M).  106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  14M short = 61%.  And Lampert sold a ton of stock in ESL recently (except SHLD), Berkowitz opening up his fund to new money... curious if they'll ever add some more of if they'll just all of a sudden quit getting more concentrated in SHLD as they have been.  ;)

 

Now 15.7M short (thanks merkhet for the heads up).  Conservatively speaking (only Lampert, Berkowitz and Tisch counting as long-term holders), the math would be as follows:

106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  15.7M short = 68% conservatively

 

A more realistic (and less conservative) calculation would result in something around 72%-74% short interest.  In reality this is still conservative, but more realistic than the calculation I posted above.

 

If 20% of Horizon Kinetics, Baker Street, Old West, Chou, Force Capital are long-term, then the short interest makes up 72% of the float.

 

If 30% of those names is long-term, then it's 74%.

 

I don't even want to think what Lampert is going to do with the $1B+ in cash he has in ESL (not counting possible redemptions), not to mention SHLD's liquidity (from the Q2 presentation). 

 

And the trend has been Berkowitz buying more and more every single quarter, while Lampert sold down 44% of all non-SHLD shares in ESL last quarter (and an additional 200,000 shares of AN a day or two after).

 

I really don't want to come across as a jerk, but would you please quit posting about details that are only barely different from what you had previously posted? The amount of value you are adding at the difference between 68% and 72% is very low.

 

There is very little that is being posted to this thread at this point that is insightful - it is mostly people who have convinced themselves that Sears is a good or bad investment and going down irrelevant rabbit holes to justify themselves. Sears may well be a good or a bad investment, but almost certainly not because of mostof what has been posted in the past couple dozen pages.

 

If the thread would stick to material facts about the business, I think it would be more useful. As it is, the incessant posts with little in the way of substance make the thread difficult to navigate and find the content of merit that has been posted here.

 

I don't have any jurisdiction here, so you obviously don't have to listen to me if you don't want to, but I do think that the thread and discussion would be of much higher quality if you did.

 

Best wishes.  :)

 

Ouch!  Scott, perhaps you're missing the point of my two or three recent posts.  Any slight adjustment in what is/isn't long-term shares has a pretty big impact... maybe not from 68 up to 72 or 74%, but every few percentage points makes it that much more of a painful squeeze, and once we approach 85%+ (and we may already be there) it is irresponsible to not discuss it.  Part of investing is to not only look at the fundamentals of the underlying business but also factors such as psychology, behavioral investing, pricing dynamics, and potential forced buying/selling.  All of these factors should be considered. Most investors don't consider these things when investing, successful investors do.

[stahleyp]

aren't the liabilities closer to $27 billion or so if you include the off balance sheet stuff?

 

Mind sharing your math on that?

 

 

$16 billion on the balance sheet and $11 billion off (feel free to check. I could be off)

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000131006713000013/shld201210k.htm

 

Page 47. Thanks to tooskin for the heads up.

[muscleman]

Since the program began three months ago, Reward Partner merchants like Burger King® have already seen a 54 percent increase in new customers and a nine percent increase in visits from existing customers versus a non-enrolled control group. Members who enroll in the new Shop Your Way Link program earn rewards points that can be redeemed in-store, online or over the phone at Sears and Kmart.  Other participating Rewards Partner merchants include Popeyes®, Louisiana Kitchen, Picture People®, Public Storage and 1-800-Flowers.com.

 

Right now, I haven't seen any of these income reported in the 10-Q. Ubiquity, SWY enrollment fee, subleasing, etc. This is weird. Are they hiding these numbers on purpose?

 

buxomblonde muscleman  :), read the part I quoted again.  It's not ShopYourWay/Sears that is generating these numbers, it's companies in the program that are doing it.  Gives an idea that it can be effective for SHLD, but the numbers are based on other partners.

 

Yeah that is exactly what I meant. SWY becomes a network, and Eddie put that network to the extra use by having Burger King signed up in the network, and Burger King gained a lot of benefits from it. If he can build a sticky eco system of users with SYW and other signed up merchants, they will mutually help each other to make the members more sticky. Then I would not be too unhappy if there is a temporary negative adjusted EBITDA for a few quarters.

[muscleman]

aren't the liabilities closer to $27 billion or so if you include the off balance sheet stuff?

 

Mind sharing your math on that?

 

 

$16 billion on the balance sheet and $11 billion off (feel free to check. I could be off)

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000131006713000013/shld201210k.htm

 

Page 47. Thanks to tooskin for the heads up.

 

I think most of that 11 bn is already counted in the 16 bn number. The 2.7bn pension, for example.

[Kraven]

aren't the liabilities closer to $27 billion or so if you include the off balance sheet stuff?

 

Mind sharing your math on that?

 

 

$16 billion on the balance sheet and $11 billion off (feel free to check. I could be off)

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000131006713000013/shld201210k.htm

 

Page 47. Thanks to tooskin for the heads up.

 

Most of that $11 bil is already on the balance sheet. Based on a 2 second look the only amounts not there are the operating leases and a small amount for royalty fees. There are also some guarantees.

[jeffmori7]

We know the share count of Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch is now 83M+ (might be more if we add Chou at 683K shares and others, but let's just keep it at 83M).  106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  14M short = 61%.  And Lampert sold a ton of stock in ESL recently (except SHLD), Berkowitz opening up his fund to new money... curious if they'll ever add some more of if they'll just all of a sudden quit getting more concentrated in SHLD as they have been.  ;)

 

Now 15.7M short (thanks merkhet for the heads up).  Conservatively speaking (only Lampert, Berkowitz and Tisch counting as long-term holders), the math would be as follows:

106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  15.7M short = 68% conservatively

 

A more realistic (and less conservative) calculation would result in something around 72%-74% short interest.  In reality this is still conservative, but more realistic than the calculation I posted above.

 

If 20% of Horizon Kinetics, Baker Street, Old West, Chou, Force Capital are long-term, then the short interest makes up 72% of the float.

 

If 30% of those names is long-term, then it's 74%.

 

I don't even want to think what Lampert is going to do with the $1B+ in cash he has in ESL (not counting possible redemptions), not to mention SHLD's liquidity (from the Q2 presentation). 

 

And the trend has been Berkowitz buying more and more every single quarter, while Lampert sold down 44% of all non-SHLD shares in ESL last quarter (and an additional 200,000 shares of AN a day or two after).

 

I really don't want to come across as a jerk, but would you please quit posting about details that are only barely different from what you had previously posted? The amount of value you are adding at the difference between 68% and 72% is very low.

 

There is very little that is being posted to this thread at this point that is insightful - it is mostly people who have convinced themselves that Sears is a good or bad investment and going down irrelevant rabbit holes to justify themselves. Sears may well be a good or a bad investment, but almost certainly not because of mostof what has been posted in the past couple dozen pages.

 

If the thread would stick to material facts about the business, I think it would be more useful. As it is, the incessant posts with little in the way of substance make the thread difficult to navigate and find the content of merit that has been posted here.

 

I don't have any jurisdiction here, so you obviously don't have to listen to me if you don't want to, but I do think that the thread and discussion would be of much higher quality if you did.

 

Best wishes.  :)

 

I don't want to start a war, and I think that Luke, you have posted some great stuff in here..but I also agree with Scott that you have been posting ad nauseam about Eddy and Bruce ownership, and how Bruce keep buying more each quarter...it's good to be written once, but go back to all your post, and you will see that you are repeating yourself quite a bit sometimes!  :) Anyway, feel free to write what you want, but I think that as Scott says, it would be good not to always reformulate the same stuff.

 

And no offense Luke, I appreciate the work you do on Sears and I have now a small position.

[zarley]

aren't the liabilities closer to $27 billion or so if you include the off balance sheet stuff?

 

Mind sharing your math on that?

 

 

$16 billion on the balance sheet and $11 billion off (feel free to check. I could be off)

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000131006713000013/shld201210k.htm

 

Page 47. Thanks to tooskin for the heads up.

 

Most of that $11 bil is already on the balance sheet. Based on a 2 second look the only amounts not there are the operating leases and a small amount for royalty fees. There are also some guarantees.

 

Exactly.  Adding the two numbers together results in a lot of double counting.  A quick review of the tables reveals that.  This thread is approaching the LVLT thread in terms of misinformation and poor analysis (on both sides of the argument).  :(

[alertmeipp]

aren't the liabilities closer to $27 billion or so if you include the off balance sheet stuff?

 

Mind sharing your math on that?

 

 

$16 billion on the balance sheet and $11 billion off (feel free to check. I could be off)

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000131006713000013/shld201210k.htm

 

Page 47. Thanks to tooskin for the heads up.

 

Most of that $11 bil is already on the balance sheet. Based on a 2 second look the only amounts not there are the operating leases and a small amount for royalty fees. There are also some guarantees.

 

Exactly.  Adding the two numbers together results in a lot of double counting.  A quick review of the tables reveals that.  This thread is approaching the LVLT thread in terms of misinformation and poor analysis (on both sides of the argument).  :(

 

And the same mis-read got pointed out 3 times in a row. LOL

 

I find Luke's posts interesting. Too bad we don't see the other data points like who holds those short position and who lent those shares, etc...

[stahleyp]

thanks muscle. Probably a stupid question, but why would it be labeled "off balance sheet' but still be on the balance sheet?

 

Let me be clear here guys - I pretty much know nothing! anyone who reads my posts should be wary and skeptical!  :-X

 

by the way, why would tooskin make such a big deal about the off balance sheet if it's already being account for? I assumed (wrongly it looks like) that they were separate, that's why he mentioned.

[jeffmori7]

aren't the liabilities closer to $27 billion or so if you include the off balance sheet stuff?

 

Mind sharing your math on that?

 

 

$16 billion on the balance sheet and $11 billion off (feel free to check. I could be off)

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000131006713000013/shld201210k.htm

 

Page 47. Thanks to tooskin for the heads up.

 

Most of that $11 bil is already on the balance sheet. Based on a 2 second look the only amounts not there are the operating leases and a small amount for royalty fees. There are also some guarantees.

 

Exactly.  Adding the two numbers together results in a lot of double counting.  A quick review of the tables reveals that.  This thread is approaching the LVLT thread in terms of misinformation and poor analysis (on both sides of the argument).  :(

 

And the same mis-read got pointed out 3 times in a row. LOL

 

I find Luke's posts interesting. Too bad we don't see the other data points like who holds those short position and who lent those shares, etc...

 

And in the end, it is not that bad to read more than once about the same stuff, it's how we learn generally! But we can understand that it could be annoying for some.