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SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp


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thanks muscle. Probably a stupid question, but why would it be labeled "off balance sheet' but still be on the balance sheet?

 

Let me be clear here guys - I pretty much know nothing! anyone who reads my posts should be wary and skeptical!  :-X

 

the table is off balance sheet AND obligations -- they share the same table.

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basically after 5 years of thinking about Sears I only see the best case scenario being ESL winds down his hedge fund and comes out the other side with a personal 25-33% stake in the retail holdings co SHLD. He won't have any other duties except to his shareholders/himself and the one company he is involved with. What he does with it after that is anyones guess but the first and most important step is his dissolving the hedge fund and being accountable to nobody except SHLD. After all he is the CEO & Chairman.

 

I don't like my owner operators being in two different pockets at once. Lose the private hedge fund partnership Eddie and focus on Sears and you'll earn back my respect. I thought this would have happened years ago, personally. I was dead wrong. But from what I have observed in the last two years, he has wound down basically to the bare bones. I wouldn't be surprised if he had already planned his exit from hedge fund management prior to leaving for Florida. The rest is just selling AutoNation and getting his partners their cash/shares. He will wind up buying a ton of SHLD from existing partners.

 

And many will keep the shares he distributes.

 

 

Thats my grand overview of Sears as a personal note to everyone here. I don't have much else to contribute. It's been exhaustive and enriching to read through all your posts. Unfortunately I detect a slight bias toward some members that we need to use metrics, read filings and go with the actual business performance. This company isn't one of those. If we stuck to that we would not be invested here. It simply is a bet on a smart jockey doing something very similar to another very famous jockey who wound down a partnership to own a huge stake in a public company that had a limited future with enough assets to work with for a period before it would turn into something else.

 

And yes i do believe long term the retail will survive and be transformed. But I also think ESL personally would like to run this as a capital allocation vehicle for investments and buying other companies.

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Exactly.  Adding the two numbers together results in a lot of double counting.  A quick review of the tables reveals that.  This thread is approaching the LVLT thread in terms of misinformation and poor analysis (on both sides of the argument).  :(

 

Dont forget also in number of posts per day, and in ability to clog up ones RS feed.

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Exactly.  Adding the two numbers together results in a lot of double counting.  A quick review of the tables reveals that.  This thread is approaching the LVLT thread in terms of misinformation and poor analysis (on both sides of the argument).  :(

 

Dont forget also in number of posts per day, and in ability to clog up ones RS feed.

 

I was thinking the same, but I found the short squeeze potential very interesting so I am following this thread closely now.

 

We just need one new or existing fund to buy up a bit more shares to see it. Worst case seems dead money for a long long time.

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We know the share count of Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch is now 83M+ (might be more if we add Chou at 683K shares and others, but let's just keep it at 83M).  106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  14M short = 61%.  And Lampert sold a ton of stock in ESL recently (except SHLD), Berkowitz opening up his fund to new money... curious if they'll ever add some more of if they'll just all of a sudden quit getting more concentrated in SHLD as they have been.  ;)

 

Now 15.7M short (thanks merkhet for the heads up).  Conservatively speaking (only Lampert, Berkowitz and Tisch counting as long-term holders), the math would be as follows:

106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  15.7M short = 68% conservatively

 

A more realistic (and less conservative) calculation would result in something around 72%-74% short interest.  In reality this is still conservative, but more realistic than the calculation I posted above.

 

If 20% of Horizon Kinetics, Baker Street, Old West, Chou, Force Capital are long-term, then the short interest makes up 72% of the float.

 

If 30% of those names is long-term, then it's 74%.

 

I don't even want to think what Lampert is going to do with the $1B+ in cash he has in ESL (not counting possible redemptions), not to mention SHLD's liquidity (from the Q2 presentation). 

 

And the trend has been Berkowitz buying more and more every single quarter, while Lampert sold down 44% of all non-SHLD shares in ESL last quarter (and an additional 200,000 shares of AN a day or two after).

 

I really don't want to come across as a jerk, but would you please quit posting about details that are only barely different from what you had previously posted? The amount of value you are adding at the difference between 68% and 72% is very low.

 

There is very little that is being posted to this thread at this point that is insightful - it is mostly people who have convinced themselves that Sears is a good or bad investment and going down irrelevant rabbit holes to justify themselves. Sears may well be a good or a bad investment, but almost certainly not because of mostof what has been posted in the past couple dozen pages.

 

If the thread would stick to material facts about the business, I think it would be more useful. As it is, the incessant posts with little in the way of substance make the thread difficult to navigate and find the content of merit that has been posted here.

 

I don't have any jurisdiction here, so you obviously don't have to listen to me if you don't want to, but I do think that the thread and discussion would be of much higher quality if you did.

 

Best wishes.  :)

 

I don't want to start a war, and I think that Luke, you have posted some great stuff in here..but I also agree with Scott that you have been posting ad nauseam about Eddy and Bruce ownership, and how Bruce keep buying more each quarter...it's good to be written once, but go back to all your post, and you will see that you are repeating yourself quite a bit sometimes!  :) Anyway, feel free to write what you want, but I think that as Scott says, it would be good not to always reformulate the same stuff.

 

And no offense Luke, I appreciate the work you do on Sears and I have now a small position.

 

I agree with Scott and Jeff here, this thread is overwhelming, at this point it sounds like a cheerleading section for the stock.

 

I actually see something else, I get the sense that some of this thread is people trying to continually convince themselves this is a great investment.  This isn't dissimilar to what you see in Yahoo or something where there's a guy posting local news articles about how the company in question changed the shade of their logo like it's something important.

 

I don't think I would ever invest in Sears because of the level of commitment and kool-aid drinking I'd need to undertake to get there.  When I see a 188 page thread and people are still arguing over whether it's a good investment that's too close to call for me.

 

For some reason this whole Sears thing reminds me of Goonies.  You have everyone on the board on this crazy adventure hunting down the lost treasure.  At some point everyone's going to stumble on the ship full of treasure after navigating a series of booby traps.  With the treasure within reach the ship starts to sink into oblivion, the upside is at the end of Goonies they had enough to save their house, so all is not lost..

 

Just like Goonies the entertainment factor on this thread is very high, like a car crash I can't help but watch.

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Exactly.  Adding the two numbers together results in a lot of double counting.  A quick review of the tables reveals that.  This thread is approaching the LVLT thread in terms of misinformation and poor analysis (on both sides of the argument).  :(

 

Dont forget also in number of posts per day, and in ability to clog up ones RS feed.

 

I was thinking the same, but I found the short squeeze potential very interesting so I am following this thread closely now.

 

We just need one new or existing fund to buy up a bit more shares to see it. Worst case seems dead money for a long long time.

 

Being honest I too find it interesting. Berkowitz could actually organize his own VW style short squeeze. Fun to watch.

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http://boardvote.com/symbol/SHLD/communique/427192

 

Retail Innovation Shines at Sears® Startup + Developer Challenge

 

HOFFMAN ESTATES, Ill., Aug. 27, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Sears announced the winners of its Startup + Developer Challenge, the retailer's latest code-a-thon designed to foster digital innovations that further enhance the Shop Your Way member experience and strengthen the company's long-standing relationships and develop new ones in the technology community of Silicon Valley. More than 150 participants competed over three days for the chance to see their application brought to life by Sears. Team Omega Ortega developed the grand prize winning app, The Chore Score, and received a test budget from Sears.

 

(Photo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20130827/CG69918-a)

 

(Photo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20130827/CG69918-b)

 

"Part of our transformation into the world's greatest integrated retailer is our ongoing commitment to drive industry-leading innovation, fueled by world-class talent," said Imran Jooma, executive vice president and president, Marketing, Online, Pricing, and Financial Services, Sears Holdings. "The Sears Startup + Developer Challenge showcased to some of the brightest minds in Silicon Valley how we've used technology to make the shopping experience convenient and rewarding for our Shop Your Way members to drive the business. We're thrilled and inspired not only by the enthusiasm the participants brought to the challenge but by their creativity around our APIs and data that we make available to developers and partners."

 

Throughout the weekend developers and startup companies created web and mobile commerce, mapping, gaming and CRM solutions, among others. A total of 41 teams submitted entries for a chance to win more than $50,000 in awards from Sears and participating sponsors. Each team presented their app solution to a panel of nine judges, including George Goley, CIO of online business at Sears Holdings, Andy Chu, divisional vice president and general manager at Sears Holdings, Doug Chavez, senior vice president of emerging media at Universal McCann Worldwide, and Robert Scoble, startup liaison officer for Rackspace. Judges evaluated apps based on four criteria; use of Sears APIs, ability to drive traffic to mobile site, ability to drive traffic to store, and the user experience.

 

Omega Ortega's grand prize winning entry was inspired by personal childhood memories at Sears and Kmart stores. Anthony Tanaka, Rance Patterson and founder, Tom Ortega, developed The Chore Score app as a fun way to incentivize children to do their chores. With their parents' guidance, kids can set up a chore list, track their progress and earn rewards for doing their chores that can be redeemed easily within the app either online or in-store.

 

"We came to the Sears Startup + Developer Challenge with a desire to build something that successfully drives engagement and sales for Sears," said Ortega. "After hearing from the Sears team on Friday evening, we came up with the app idea on Saturday morning. Our small team was then able to execute on this idea in under 36 hours. Building mobile apps quickly is what we do, and I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to work with a great brand like Sears."

 

Additional developer award categories and winning entries included:

 

    Best use of three or more APIs: Buy with Friends by Cam Urban

    Most holiday-inspired: Instagift by Brian Clark

    Most out-of-the-box: Sears180 by Rauhmel Fox and Jacy Bryla

 

For additional information on the Sears APIs and data available to developers and partners, check out the Sears Developer Network on Twitter: @SearsAPI.

 

 

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We know the share count of Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch is now 83M+ (might be more if we add Chou at 683K shares and others, but let's just keep it at 83M).  106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  14M short = 61%.  And Lampert sold a ton of stock in ESL recently (except SHLD), Berkowitz opening up his fund to new money... curious if they'll ever add some more of if they'll just all of a sudden quit getting more concentrated in SHLD as they have been.  ;)

 

Now 15.7M short (thanks merkhet for the heads up).  Conservatively speaking (only Lampert, Berkowitz and Tisch counting as long-term holders), the math would be as follows:

106M outstanding - 83M = 23M.  15.7M short = 68% conservatively

 

A more realistic (and less conservative) calculation would result in something around 72%-74% short interest.  In reality this is still conservative, but more realistic than the calculation I posted above.

 

If 20% of Horizon Kinetics, Baker Street, Old West, Chou, Force Capital are long-term, then the short interest makes up 72% of the float.

 

If 30% of those names is long-term, then it's 74%.

 

I don't even want to think what Lampert is going to do with the $1B+ in cash he has in ESL (not counting possible redemptions), not to mention SHLD's liquidity (from the Q2 presentation). 

 

And the trend has been Berkowitz buying more and more every single quarter, while Lampert sold down 44% of all non-SHLD shares in ESL last quarter (and an additional 200,000 shares of AN a day or two after).

 

I really don't want to come across as a jerk, but would you please quit posting about details that are only barely different from what you had previously posted? The amount of value you are adding at the difference between 68% and 72% is very low.

 

There is very little that is being posted to this thread at this point that is insightful - it is mostly people who have convinced themselves that Sears is a good or bad investment and going down irrelevant rabbit holes to justify themselves. Sears may well be a good or a bad investment, but almost certainly not because of mostof what has been posted in the past couple dozen pages.

 

If the thread would stick to material facts about the business, I think it would be more useful. As it is, the incessant posts with little in the way of substance make the thread difficult to navigate and find the content of merit that has been posted here.

 

I don't have any jurisdiction here, so you obviously don't have to listen to me if you don't want to, but I do think that the thread and discussion would be of much higher quality if you did.

 

Best wishes.  :)

 

I don't want to start a war, and I think that Luke, you have posted some great stuff in here..but I also agree with Scott that you have been posting ad nauseam about Eddy and Bruce ownership, and how Bruce keep buying more each quarter...it's good to be written once, but go back to all your post, and you will see that you are repeating yourself quite a bit sometimes!  :) Anyway, feel free to write what you want, but I think that as Scott says, it would be good not to always reformulate the same stuff.

 

And no offense Luke, I appreciate the work you do on Sears and I have now a small position.

 

I agree with Scott and Jeff here, this thread is overwhelming, at this point it sounds like a cheerleading section for the stock.

 

I actually see something else, I get the sense that some of this thread is people trying to continually convince themselves this is a great investment.  This isn't dissimilar to what you see in Yahoo or something where there's a guy posting local news articles about how the company in question changed the shade of their logo like it's something important.

 

I don't think I would ever invest in Sears because of the level of commitment and kool-aid drinking I'd need to undertake to get there.  When I see a 188 page thread and people are still arguing over whether it's a good investment that's too close to call for me.

 

For some reason this whole Sears thing reminds me of Goonies.  You have everyone on the board on this crazy adventure hunting down the lost treasure.  At some point everyone's going to stumble on the ship full of treasure after navigating a series of booby traps.  With the treasure within reach the ship starts to sink into oblivion, the upside is at the end of Goonies they had enough to save their house, so all is not lost..

 

Just like Goonies the entertainment factor on this thread is very high, like a car crash I can't help but watch.

 

What is the ingredient for a perfect post?  A Goonies reference.  I loved that movie when I was a kid.  It had it all.  I recall a few years ago seeing an interview with Chunk.  He is now this very skinny lawyer, but when you look at him it's very clearly the kid shouting that he took his Uncle Max's toupee and glued it to his face when he was Moses in the Hebrew School play.  Great stuff.

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I actually see something else, I get the sense that some of this thread is people trying to continually convince themselves this is a great investment.  This isn't dissimilar to what you see in Yahoo or something where there's a guy posting local news articles about how the company in question changed the shade of their logo like it's something important.

 

I sincerely hope you are not directing this towards me.  You don't accomplish certain things in the investment world by spending time convincing yourself you are right, you try to convince yourself that you are wrong.  I focus on the latter and my track record has shown that is a highly profitable discipline.

 

I don't think I would ever invest in Sears because of the level of commitment and kool-aid drinking I'd need to undertake to get there. 

 

If you think you need to drink kool-aid to get comfortable, then you're right, this investment is not for you and you shouldn't touch it.

 

When I see a 188 page thread and people are still arguing over whether it's a good investment that's too close to call for me.

 

So, if the thread was decisively bullish or bearish that would change your thesis or impression of the company?  With all due respect, I would caution you against herd mentality.

 

...like a car crash I can't help but watch.

 

A $40 car that may or may not crash, but even if it does there's $100 in gold bullion in the trunk.  Not many investors take the time to look in the trunk.

 

By the way, Goonies was one of my all-time favorite movies.  Must have watched that 20 times growing up.

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I'd rather see an active message board if it means there's 25% extra fluff, or repeated information, than a dead board where no one is willing to post their thoughts.

 

With that, does anyone have thoughts on the info I posted about the YOY change in margin due to SYWR points?  Link is here: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/shld-sears/msg129504/#msg129504

 

It seems to me that they're now spending $400 to $600 million a year on SYWR points/promotions, etc.  That is huge!  And explains why they aren't profitable even after closing many of the money losing stores over the past two years.

 

 

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It seems to me that they're now spending $400 to $600 million a year on SYWR points/promotions, etc.  That is huge!  And explains why they aren't profitable even after closing many of the money losing stores over the past two years.

 

And how much sales growth have these promotions brought them?

 

Or how much is lost after taking them away?

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There's probably a lot of talk going on in this thread because there's little else to talk about elsewhere.

 

I find myself reading a lot more and doing a heck of a lot of nothing.

 

True. And a lot of stocks are at a all-time high..obviously, not Sears! In time like this, it's normal to finally take the time to look at this one.

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I actually see something else, I get the sense that some of this thread is people trying to continually convince themselves this is a great investment.  This isn't dissimilar to what you see in Yahoo or something where there's a guy posting local news articles about how the company in question changed the shade of their logo like it's something important.

 

I sincerely hope you are not directing this towards me.  You don't accomplish certain things in the investment world by spending time convincing yourself you are right, you try to convince yourself that you are wrong.  I focus on the latter and my track record has shown that is a highly profitable discipline.

 

I don't think I would ever invest in Sears because of the level of commitment and kool-aid drinking I'd need to undertake to get there. 

 

If you think you need to drink kool-aid to get comfortable, then you're right, this investment is not for you and you shouldn't touch it.

 

When I see a 188 page thread and people are still arguing over whether it's a good investment that's too close to call for me.

 

So, if the thread was decisively bullish or bearish that would change your thesis or impression of the company?  With all due respect, I would caution you against herd mentality.

 

...like a car crash I can't help but watch.

 

A $40 car that may or may not crash, but even if it does there's $100 in gold bullion in the trunk.  Not many investors take the time to look in the trunk.

 

By the way, Goonies was one of my all-time favorite movies.  Must have watched that 20 times growing up.

 

I'm not sure how to respond, my post was directed to everyone who continually passionately posts about Sears on this thread, there are a handful of people.

 

You claim that is just a $40 car, yet I have a feeling you probably have a position akin to the price of a small car if not a few magnitudes larger.  I can't imagine you only have $40 at risk here.

 

I understand the asset thing, I'm an asset investor myself.  I'm drawn like a magnet to illiquid assets with large mis-pricings, I can't help myself.  But after being burned repeatedly in the past I won't buy an asset where the operations are continually eating into the asset value except in an extreme case.  To qualify as extreme the undervaluation has to be enormous, or there is a clear path forward.  There might be an extreme undervaluation here but there is no clear path forward. 

 

I like the idea that ESL is trying to maximize asset value for shareholders, but I feel like they're in a gold plated rowboat with a leak.  They continue to bail water, but they have to bail faster and faster, it isn't clear if they'll make it to the shore in time or if the leak will overcome them.  Sure maybe the rowboat sinks and someone salvages it, but that isn't the ideal outcome.

 

Bullish or bearish sentiment on a thread is meaningless to me.  Everyone was rah rah BAC, I never purchased a share.  On overwhelmingly negative threads I haven't shorted anything either.  I march to my own drum, I hold a very eclectic portfolio, now that I think about it I'm not sure I've ever purchased anything ever written about on the board.

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...like a car crash I can't help but watch.

 

A $40 car that may or may not crash, but even if it does there's $100 in gold bullion in the trunk.  Not many investors take the time to look in the trunk.

 

 

You claim that is just a $40 car, yet I have a feeling you probably have a position akin to the price of a small car if not a few magnitudes larger.  I can't imagine you only have $40 at risk here.

 

oddballstocks, I'm not sure if you're joking or not.  If you're not then let me explain, the "$40 car" represents the current stock price.

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...like a car crash I can't help but watch.

 

A $40 car that may or may not crash, but even if it does there's $100 in gold bullion in the trunk.  Not many investors take the time to look in the trunk.

 

 

You claim that is just a $40 car, yet I have a feeling you probably have a position akin to the price of a small car if not a few magnitudes larger.  I can't imagine you only have $40 at risk here.

 

oddballstocks, I'm not sure if you're joking or not.  If you're not then let me explain, the "$40 car" represents the current stock price.

 

That's just like the myth "the stock is only $.10 so you can only lose a dime!"  sure, but when you multiply that dime by a few hundred thousand shares it starts to become real money, that's what I was trying to point out.

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Regarding the $11.2 billion of contractual obligations that is causing confusion: For the record, I never stated that this consisted of only off balance sheet obligations.  My first post referencing this amount made it clear that this amount was both on and off balance sheet amounts.  Here is a link to that post and to this quote:

 

"Is it appropriate to estimate a value in excess of book value (as it currently trades) when that same company has a negative return on equity and also has $11,200,000,000 in contractual obligations (both on and off balance sheet)?"

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/shld-sears/msg129045/#msg129045

 

Luke 5:32 said: "A $40 car that may or may not crash, but even if it does there's $100 in gold bullion in the trunk. "

 

The above quote is a perfect example of what I was referring to in my previous posts:  an assertion of "hidden value" without any evidence to substantiate it.  Luke, how do you calculate the $100 per share in value?

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...like a car crash I can't help but watch.

 

A $40 car that may or may not crash, but even if it does there's $100 in gold bullion in the trunk.  Not many investors take the time to look in the trunk.

 

 

You claim that is just a $40 car, yet I have a feeling you probably have a position akin to the price of a small car if not a few magnitudes larger.  I can't imagine you only have $40 at risk here.

 

oddballstocks, I'm not sure if you're joking or not.  If you're not then let me explain, the "$40 car" represents the current stock price.

 

That's just like the myth "the stock is only $.10 so you can only lose a dime!"  sure, but when you multiply that dime by a few hundred thousand shares it starts to become real money, that's what I was trying to point out.

 

OK, I guess you weren't joking - not sure how to explain that illustration to you, you're misinterpreting what I was trying to convey  :-\

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The above quote is a perfect example of what I was referring to in my previous posts:  an assertion of "hidden value" without any evidence to substantiate it.  Luke, how do you calculate the $100 per share in value?

 

I want to honor the request of some to not repeat what others have already said.  Read the past 150+ pages on this thread for your answer.  If you knew me, my track record, my personality, the amount of money I have made investing over the years, etc. you'd know that I don't make any investment unless I can substantiate the thesis behind it.  And my position in SHLD is quite large in terms of % of my portfolio.

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Luke said: "I want to honor the request of some to not repeat what others have already said.  Read the past 150+ pages on this thread for your answer."

 

So let me get this straight, the evidence of the "hidden value" is also "hidden?"  Classic!

 

Reading is usually a prerequisite for success.  It's very difficult to take one's opinion of a company seriously if they are unwilling to read the financials of a company, much less a message board.

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I'd rather see an active message board if it means there's 25% extra fluff, or repeated information, than a dead board where no one is willing to post their thoughts.

 

With that, does anyone have thoughts on the info I posted about the YOY change in margin due to SYWR points?  Link is here: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/shld-sears/msg129504/#msg129504

 

It seems to me that they're now spending $400 to $600 million a year on SYWR points/promotions, etc.  That is huge!  And explains why they aren't profitable even after closing many of the money losing stores over the past two years.

 

 

BT,

 

I wish more commentary was around exactly what you're talking about. The investor presentation speaks loud if you're willing to listen.

 

The SYW points are running a quarter billion dollars annual change to the negative.

 

Between that and the updated pension, I am not sure why people aren't bottom fishing here.

 

On the subject of SYW... I was at Kmart today with my daughter.... I was buying socks, she was buying a small stuffed animal. Because she was buying her toy with her own money, we made two separate transactions, but used my SYW card both times. The cashier thanked me for the separate transactions and when I realized she wasn't joking, I asked why.  She said that the store managers want 75% of all transactions to be SYW linked transactions. She showed me an alert on her computer monitor showing me her percentage. She then said that if the cashiers don't get to 75% they get "yelled at".... then she paused and said, "actually not yelled at, but talked to"...... She then said that SHLD corporate gives store managers cash bonuses for having their cashiers hitting 75% SYW transactions.

 

So, yeah, Eddie's certainly dumping material cash into Shop Your Way. I wish he'd back off a bit and actually turn a profit because the numbers show it's possible to do. 

 

One more thing.. Eddie Wexler, if you're reading this... This particular cashier ended the conversation by saying that she rarely hits 75% and the reason why is because "most people don't have a card and don't want a card."

 

 

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