plato1976 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 hope we can see single digit... Where are the losses coming from??? Has to be cleared out inventory right at cheap prices? or something non-cash. Cash end of Q3 was $600 Mill + $450 anticipated from Canadian sales Cash 1/4/2014 is $1000 Mill + $300 anticipated from Canadian Sales. Cash Availibity from borrowings: Revolver in Q3 - $1000 mill availability Domestic + 725 million + $340 Commercial Paper Revolver in Q4 - $1.8 mill availability Domestic + 500 milloin + $494 commercial paper so + 980 in cash for the quarter? minus what in net inventory? The loss is adjusted loss, so I bet it doesn't include non-cash numbers. I am quite surprised that this could happen in a Q4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 wait a sec. didn't somebody just report they saw lots of people around the registers looking engaged and asking Lots of questions about SYW? ??? I did! Clearly not representative of the whole company. I'll take the blame on that one. Sorry. lesson: less anecdotes. more 10qs. Haha yes, this thread is good in providing anecdotes and extrapolating insignificant data points. How else does a thread reach this length... ;) Not much to say. Glad I got out at the time I did. I found some good stocks afterwards which made SHLD look like a crapshoot. Pure luck. We'll see how far this plummets ultimately. Might even be able to pick some up in the $20-25 range. Stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Im hoping to average down too. I like this drop but im hoping for it to drop under 35 or better still under 30. Now I look like a fool b/c I bought at $49 cheers ! ouch, down 15% in aftermarket! Time to average down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFValue Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Has Sears previously provided updates on quarters like this? I know they did in October -- but prior to that, did Sears provide these updates? It's curious that ESL is doing that. it's another ESL mystery, no doubt bullish. The sarcasm is strong in this one -- but seriously though, I can't recall this happening before. really it doesn't matter. he is a disaster. the company is a disaster. his motivations here are not to create value. what are his motivations? a HFM by definition is a profit driven person. could he be just wrong ala ackman/JCP/Ross? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Has Sears previously provided updates on quarters like this? I know they did in October -- but prior to that, did Sears provide these updates? It's curious that ESL is doing that. it's another ESL mystery, no doubt bullish. The sarcasm is strong in this one -- but seriously though, I can't recall this happening before. really it doesn't matter. he is a disaster. the company is a disaster. his motivations here are not to create value. what are his motivations? a HFM by definition is a profit driven person. could he be just wrong ala ackman/JCP/Ross? I don't know. it's his plaything. he certainly has no concept of outside shareholders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFValue Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Has Sears previously provided updates on quarters like this? I know they did in October -- but prior to that, did Sears provide these updates? It's curious that ESL is doing that. it's another ESL mystery, no doubt bullish. The sarcasm is strong in this one -- but seriously though, I can't recall this happening before. really it doesn't matter. he is a disaster. the company is a disaster. his motivations here are not to create value. what are his motivations? a HFM by definition is a profit driven person. could he be just wrong ala ackman/JCP/Ross? I don't know. it's his plaything. he certainly has no concept of outside shareholders. obviously the WEB's playbook "investor/CEO" does not fit at all, but that was known. plaything is too harsh. we know he will be fine either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Has Sears previously provided updates on quarters like this? I know they did in October -- but prior to that, did Sears provide these updates? It's curious that ESL is doing that. If you check 2 yrs ago, Jan 2, 2012 - Sears pre announced a terrible qtr, stock traded down to $29.50. Then a couple days later, Lampert executed his inside buys and stock recovered to $85 - all this within 60 days. It's never a dull moment when you own SHLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 hope we can see single digit... It got as low as $29 in late 2011 early 2012 which was before some asset shedding/spin offs. One of the CNBC traders this morning was talking his book on his short SHLD position (good timing!), no doubt they will be talking about it tomorrow again after this drop and that could add to the pressure. I would not be surprised if we see high teens, single digit is a stretch IMO. But who knows! Never a dull moment with SHLD. As I mentioned a few days ago to those hoping to get in at the low 40s to make a quick buck, beware it can and will go lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Has Sears previously provided updates on quarters like this? I know they did in October -- but prior to that, did Sears provide these updates? It's curious that ESL is doing that. If you check 2 yrs ago, Jan 2, 2012 - Sears pre announced a terrible qtr, stock traded down to $29.50. Then a couple days later, Lampert executed his inside buys and stock recovered to $85 - all this within 60 days. It's never a dull moment when you own SHLD. Heh, are posts were very similar. Down to the "its never a dull moment". For the ESL conspiracy theorists on the thread... It's clearly just ESL driving the price down because the # of shares he will get for his 2014 bonus will be determined by the price on Feb. 1. On March 19, 2013, Mr. Lampert and Holdings entered into the Letter, pursuant to which Mr. Lampert will continue to serve as Chief Executive Officer of Holdings. Under the Letter, Mr. Lampert will be paid an annual base salary of $1, effective as of February 1, 2013. In addition, during each of the first three years of Mr. Lampert’s service as Chief Executive Officer of Holdings, Mr. Lampert will (i) participate in the Holdings’ Annual Incentive Plan, with a target incentive opportunity of $2,000,000, payouts under which (if any) may be paid, at Mr. Lampert’s election, in cash or in Holdings Common Stock, and (ii) receive Holdings Common Stock with value of $4,500,000 per annum, payable in equal monthly installments subject to his continued service as Chief Executive Officer. The number of shares issued to Mr. Lampert will be based on the value of Holdings’ Common Stock on March 18, 2013 for shares issued through January 31, 2014, and on the February 1st of each successive 12-month period of his employment. To the extent there is not a sufficient number of shares available under Holdings’ equity plans to make any award contemplated under the Letter, Mr. Lampert will be entitled to receive compensation of substantially equivalent economic value in such form as Holdings and Mr. Lampert agree upon. The foregoing is qualified in its entirety by reference to the form of Letter attached hereto as Exhibit 99.6 and incorporated by reference herein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 The retail store I'm at is playing Petty's "Free Falling." How fitting. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 didnt they have liquidity event during that timeframe and stock pop back as they did some transaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 hope we can see single digit... It got as low as $29 in late 2011 early 2012 which was before some asset shedding/spin offs. One of the CNBC traders this morning was talking his book on his short SHLD position (good timing!), no doubt they will be talking about it tomorrow again after this drop and that could add to the pressure. I would not be surprised if we see high teens, single digit is a stretch IMO. But who knows! Never a dull moment with SHLD. As I mentioned a few days ago to those hoping to get in at the low 40s to make a quick buck, beware it can and will go lower. wasn't the share count a bit higher too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Does anyone know if stores that are closing/liquidating get included in SSS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 didnt they have liquidity event during that timeframe and stock pop back as they did some transaction. Yea, I think there was a S&P downgrade, that they couldn't pay their bills, etc. - and could go BK. Good point, forgot about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Luke, any insight on the earnings release? I knew the quarter will be bad but it was even worst!!! It seems like the losses are accelerating and they are not making any traction. I sold my position during the last short squeeze and thank god and plowed the position into BAC options! (Thanks Eric!!!) I do however hold a large position in Chou Associates so I am getting indirectly hit by this sell off... Tks, S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Luke, any insight on the earnings release? I knew the quarter will be bad but it was even worst!!! It seems like the losses are accelerating and they are not making any traction. I sold my position during the last short squeeze and thank god and plowed the position into BAC options! (Thanks Eric!!!) I do however hold a large position in Chou Associates so I am getting indirectly hit by this sell off... Tks, S Well, the numbers were pretty awful for sure. It just comes down to whether or not you think Lampert can monetize the assets quick enough to make this work for shareholders long-term. I think he can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Just a few thoughts to ponder in light of today's press release... Keep in mind that no matter what you believe SHLD will look like 5 or 10 years from now, the company today is a retailer plain and simple. When you get 90% of your sales from selling merchandise, that is what will impact your financial results. Even a huge improvement in the other 10% won't matter all that much. Even if SHLD continues to let leases expire and closes 100 or 200 stores in 2014, that will still be the case this time next year. As for whether all of these smart investments (wi-fi, SYW points, etc) that Eddie keeps talking about are actually really working (I know he says they are), the evidence seems to suggest otherwise. If SYW/integrated retail really was working, would Sears Domestic really have posted same store sales of minus 9.4% so far this quarter? I don't see how. In fact, comps seem to be getting worse the more Eddie does. Has Sears Domestic ever had comps that bad in any quarter? I'm not sure they have. Just because more and more of your shoppers are using a free rewards card when they shop (after being asked multiples times, why not just take one, right?), it does not mean they are any more loyal or allocating any more of their shopping dollars to you. And just because your existing customer base is buying more from your online site, and less from your retail stores, that does not mean your "integrated" strategy is working. It just means that e-commerce industry-wide is gaining share of the overall pie (which has been happening for years now). In terms of the brands, it is particularly striking to me that the supposed stalwarts (Kenmore and Craftsman) are also doing so poorly. In today release, it says "Sears Domestic's quarter-to-date comparable store sales decline is attributable to decreases in most categories including consumer electronics, tools and home appliances." So Craftsman isn't doing well. Kenmore isn't either, even though the housing market is better today than a year ago. Not only aren't they doing well, they are doing worse than most other areas of the business (or else they would not have been singled out). Combine that with the fact that they are accelerating the store closures in recent months (and are likely to continue doing so) and think about what kind of impact that one-two punch is going to have on the ultimate value of many of the assets that Sears bulls focus on (KCD, Sears Home Services, Extended Warranties, etc). It doesn't look good. In terms of the real estate, it may be true that new mall supply is low, but with mall traffic falling by 5-20% depending on which survey you look at, perhaps there is a reason the big mall operators aren't building new sites and the likes of GGP and Simon aren't offering huge piles of cash to Eddie for his anchor sites (we know that if the price makes sense, he will sell). Maybe the mall demand simply isn't there to that degree, and maybe that trend is getting worse with each passing year. I'm not trying to pour even more cold water with the stock down tonight, but I just think even if you are bullish, it's okay to ponder whether you have quite a bit of time to scale into this stock. The bullish thesis may very well play out at some point, but why not give yourself a cushion and some dry powder if the rest of 2014 brings with it more press releases like today's. There appears to be little evidence, at least to me, that things will improve materially anytime soon. Eddie is very smart, but he has never tried anything like this before and his record so far is not looking too good. Just my two cents... good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Does anyone know if stores that are closing/liquidating get included in SSS? It says "Comparable store sales", so I assume that exclude the stores sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Luke, any insight on the earnings release? I knew the quarter will be bad but it was even worst!!! It seems like the losses are accelerating and they are not making any traction. I sold my position during the last short squeeze and thank god and plowed the position into BAC options! (Thanks Eric!!!) I do however hold a large position in Chou Associates so I am getting indirectly hit by this sell off... Tks, S Are you and tomgrt the same guy!? You guys are making very similar move I notice. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Luke, any insight on the earnings release? I knew the quarter will be bad but it was even worst!!! It seems like the losses are accelerating and they are not making any traction. I sold my position during the last short squeeze and thank god and plowed the position into BAC options! (Thanks Eric!!!) I do however hold a large position in Chou Associates so I am getting indirectly hit by this sell off... Tks, S Well, the numbers were pretty awful for sure. It just comes down to whether or not you think Lampert can monetize the assets quick enough to make this work for shareholders long-term. I think he can. Luke, he is monetizing the assets alright but all those money went to the black hole. He wants to keep the retail business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Something else that was passed along to me. If it's already been posted I apologize. http://blog.searsholdings.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 What is quick enough? Closing 200-300 retail stores in 2014? We will continue to burn cash and SHLD is running out of assets to sell. The problem is comps were really bad across every segment so now the question I ask you... Are any retail stores profitable and worth keeping open or does it make sense to just stop being a retailer ASAP? Tks, S Luke, any insight on the earnings release? I knew the quarter will be bad but it was even worst!!! It seems like the losses are accelerating and they are not making any traction. I sold my position during the last short squeeze and thank god and plowed the position into BAC options! (Thanks Eric!!!) I do however hold a large position in Chou Associates so I am getting indirectly hit by this sell off... Tks, S Well, the numbers were pretty awful for sure. It just comes down to whether or not you think Lampert can monetize the assets quick enough to make this work for shareholders long-term. I think he can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Nope, we are not. After it fell 15-20% from it's peak I sent him a note congratulating him on the huge gain and was asking which calls he owned. I am still puzzles how people did not think that was a short squeeze. (I did post on the forum I was out due to a gut feeling) Tks, S Luke, any insight on the earnings release? I knew the quarter will be bad but it was even worst!!! It seems like the losses are accelerating and they are not making any traction. I sold my position during the last short squeeze and thank god and plowed the position into BAC options! (Thanks Eric!!!) I do however hold a large position in Chou Associates so I am getting indirectly hit by this sell off... Tks, S Are you and tomgrt the same guy!? You guys are making very similar move I notice. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I guess I don't understand why after 9 years of Lampert repeatedly proving he has absolutely no idea how to run a retailer, people continue to think there might be some kind of turnaround on the way and pile into the stock. I get the real estate value argument, but Lampert has no idea what to do with that either. +1 No matter what he does its bullish for the thesis. Very similar to the BBRY thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I don't think anyone is really viewing this release as bullish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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