alertmeipp Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 ie how many shares you expect the shorts will do tmw? vs the 15 millions today and yesterday. remember there isnt that many shares to borrow even tho it is much more than one month ago imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Sure they are. I try on the shoes at the mall, I like them, then I whip out my phone and buy them for less from Zappos. Zappos gets the sale. I don't return the shoes to Zappos because I tried them on first at the mall. But then the mall goes bust. Next time, I have nowhere to try shoes on first. So I order them from Zappos -- whoops, those ones were too narrow. So I return them AT THEIR COST. Then I order another shoe -- oops, don't like those ones. So I return them to Zappos AT THEIR COST. Uh ohh... this is now getting expensive for Zappos. Profits aren't as good as they were before. Amazon has had this problem already. If you order an item from Amazon and don't like it or don't want it. They charge return Shipping. The cost to return an item can be almost as high as the item itself. Companies like Sears, Walmart, Target etc who have a physical location have an advantage on Amazon in this regard. The closest thing amazon has to physical locations is the Amazon Locker. http://www.amazon.com/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=200572810 This is definitely not my experience with Amazon, and nor is it true. Amazon has never charged me for return shipping costs, and I've returned a LOT of stuff. Sometimes it was their fault, sometimes it was the vendor, sometimes I just didn't like the product. In any case, I haven't ever paid for return shipping. And, that's including a heavy Christmas tree that I returned to a secondary vendor--who paid for the return shipping themselves. Sometimes, what Amazon will do, and I've heard this from others as well as experience it myself, is that instead of paying for return shipping, they will just allow you to keep the item. Just recently, for example, I bought some soccer shorts on Amazon for under $10. The size didn't fit at all. I asked to return for an exchange. They just sent a note saying to keep the item instead instead of shipping back. Amazon rocks. I also agree with Ericopoly about people getting more savvy to online shopping. I do that all the time. I go to the stores, look at stuff, and before I buy, I use Google Shopping to see if it's cheaper online. Android has a really cool feature with Google Now that allows you to even take a picture of the UPC barcode, and Google will automatically know that item and show you the cheapest prices online. It's amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Shop Your Way mentioned in the NYTimes today. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/business/ge-capital-to-help-set-up-loyalty-programs-for-retailers.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 This is definitely not my experience with Amazon, and nor is it true. Amazon has never charged me for return shipping costs, and I've returned a LOT of stuff. Sometimes it was their fault, sometimes it was the vendor, sometimes I just didn't like the product. In any case, I haven't ever paid for return shipping. And, that's including a heavy Christmas tree that I returned to a secondary vendor--who paid for the return shipping themselves. Sometimes, what Amazon will do, and I've heard this from others as well as experience it myself, is that instead of paying for return shipping, they will just allow you to keep the item. Just recently, for example, I bought some soccer shorts on Amazon for under $10. The size didn't fit at all. I asked to return for an exchange. They just sent a note saying to keep the item instead instead of shipping back. Amazon rocks. I also agree with Ericopoly about people getting more savvy to online shopping. I do that all the time. I go to the stores, look at stuff, and before I buy, I use Google Shopping to see if it's cheaper online. Android has a really cool feature with Google Now that allows you to even take a picture of the UPC barcode, and Google will automatically know that item and show you the cheapest prices online. It's amazing. Actually what you describe is how Amazon used to do stuff. They do charge for returns depending on what you select as the reason for return. I just tested it out on purchases I made during Christmas and depending on the return reason Amazon gave the following message on returns page. "Because your return is not the result of our error, estimated return shipping costs of up to $XX.XX will be deducted from your refund." The return cost changed based on the item I said I wanted to return. Maybe its just my account :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I just returned something a few weeks ago because I didn't like it. I did not get charged for the return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 My experience is more in line with adesiger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I just returned something a few weeks ago because I didn't like it. I did not get charged for the return. You probably selected a reason that was considered an Amazon error or was one of the Free return categories. I think, clothes, shoes, jewelry, watches and baby items are free return categories. Shipping is hurting Amazon which is the reason for changing items to AddOn Categories and raising free shipping to $35. Amazon has already lost the advantage of no state taxes. They have also lost the advantage of 2 day shipping. Brick and Mortar retailers are providing 2 Day shipping themselves or through ShopRunner. Shoprunner is free for Amex cardholders. https://www.shoprunner.com Biggest advantage Amazon has over SHLD is their Customer Service and Ecosystem. They have a huge number of vendors on Amazon marketplace. They have data on what I buy and browse. They use this to figure out my likes and dislikes and what im looking to buy. They suggest me stuff I otherwise wouldn't have thought to buy. From the Customized Deals and the book recommendations to apps to audiobooks and kindle versions of books I bought from them a decade ago. Go to Your Account>Your Recommendations and see how much they know about your purchasing history/habits. I guess SYW is SHLD trying to do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Peridot, You said, "they still didn't generate any cash." But, come on! That's only looking at 3 quarters of the year. We all know that the 4th quarter is when they start with tons of extra inventory and end with very little inventory (relative to their normal inventory levels). It's like you're looking at the January profits for a realtors office and saying "they're a negative cash flow business." In reality, realtors sells twice as many homes in the summer vs. the winter. It's totally inaccurate to make the statement over one month of financial data when significant business is done in other months. the declining stock price seems to adequately reflect the massive destruction of economic value at shld over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 My experience is more in line with adesiger agreed. Amazon only pays for returns now if it's their mistake or item is defective. However, they don't seem to be very strict on what the customer deems defective. I would be very surprised if any of their marketplace vendors pick up the return shipping costs. that's a good way for a small vendor to go bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 "The honest answer is we certainly had plans (for a turnaround) and forecasts for this year that it would have happened already, and we haven't delivered against that," Lampert said This is what makes me the most worried. Is the guy delusional? What have they done to warrant a turnaround in 2013? Customers are fleeing, he is investing nothing in the stores: capex, people, inventory. I understand the "showrooming" effect but, people still shop at Macy's, Dillard's and other stores. So it is a headwind but, likely not the biggest for them at the moment. However, what is clear in retail is that once a negative trend is in place, it just gets worse and worse. To get people back and sales, he will have to take them away from others and I see nothing to make that happen. How else can he have expected a turnaround at current store count or in 2013? Their internet sales may be going up but, nowhere near enough to offset the decline. That is a very important thing to think about. What makes the retail stores compelling? We keep talking about how women like to go shopping in malls for the experience -- do they want to go to Sears for the experience? IMO by neglecting stores it made his metrics look better for a while, but the damage takes a while to show up. By neglecting stores he is not winning the hearts and minds of mall shoppers (back to McNamara again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Peridot, You said, "they still didn't generate any cash." But, come on! That's only looking at 3 quarters of the year. We all know that the 4th quarter is when they start with tons of extra inventory and end with very little inventory (relative to their normal inventory levels). It's like you're looking at the January profits for a realtors office and saying "they're a negative cash flow business." In reality, realtors sells twice as many homes in the summer vs. the winter. It's totally inaccurate to make the statement over one month of financial data when significant business is done in other months. the declining stock price seems to adequately reflect the massive destruction of economic value at shld over the last few years. Wellmont, You're right. Though I think SHLD is undervalued, and I could be wrong, there has been value destruction over the past decade. Also, the quote you replied to was focused solely on Lands' End in case that affects your thoughts on what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 If I choose to ignore some stores it does not imply that I am ignoring all stores. I can pick and choose depending on stores that are profitable and I plan to keep. Why invest in an asset that is not earning an adequate return. If the only stores that remain open earn ROIC of 11% the company as a whole will earn 11% ROIC. This is like insurance - you shrink when pricing does not compensate you for the risk. Malls and shopping is part of our culture. People enjoy the experience of going to malls. We are social creatures that like to do things together. It is not about to change anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Though some of the things we do and the way we shop will definitely change/evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20ppy Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 the declining stock price seems to adequately reflect the massive destruction of economic value at shld over the last few years. What about the massive RE price recovery from the height of the financial storm? Even as we talk, RE value is increasing. The value drained by retail the past couple of years has been probably exacerbated by Gaap numbers and SYW. Can anyone answer this question: If Eddie wanted, can he make the GAAP number look much better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I just returned something a few weeks ago because I didn't like it. I did not get charged for the return. You probably selected a reason that was considered an Amazon error or was one of the Free return categories. I think, clothes, shoes, jewelry, watches and baby items are free return categories. Shipping is hurting Amazon which is the reason for changing items to AddOn Categories and raising free shipping to $35. Amazon has already lost the advantage of no state taxes. They have also lost the advantage of 2 day shipping. Brick and Mortar retailers are providing 2 Day shipping themselves or through ShopRunner. Shoprunner is free for Amex cardholders. https://www.shoprunner.com Biggest advantage Amazon has over SHLD is their Customer Service and Ecosystem. They have a huge number of vendors on Amazon marketplace. They have data on what I buy and browse. They use this to figure out my likes and dislikes and what im looking to buy. They suggest me stuff I otherwise wouldn't have thought to buy. From the Customized Deals and the book recommendations to apps to audiobooks and kindle versions of books I bought from them a decade ago. Go to Your Account>Your Recommendations and see how much they know about your purchasing history/habits. I guess SYW is SHLD trying to do the same. I returned a $90 usb microphone (condensor mic) because it just didn't work well. No return shipping! So far, I've never had to pay return shipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I just returned something a few weeks ago because I didn't like it. I did not get charged for the return. You probably selected a reason that was considered an Amazon error or was one of the Free return categories. I think, clothes, shoes, jewelry, watches and baby items are free return categories. Shipping is hurting Amazon which is the reason for changing items to AddOn Categories and raising free shipping to $35. Amazon has already lost the advantage of no state taxes. They have also lost the advantage of 2 day shipping. Brick and Mortar retailers are providing 2 Day shipping themselves or through ShopRunner. Shoprunner is free for Amex cardholders. https://www.shoprunner.com Biggest advantage Amazon has over SHLD is their Customer Service and Ecosystem. They have a huge number of vendors on Amazon marketplace. They have data on what I buy and browse. They use this to figure out my likes and dislikes and what im looking to buy. They suggest me stuff I otherwise wouldn't have thought to buy. From the Customized Deals and the book recommendations to apps to audiobooks and kindle versions of books I bought from them a decade ago. Go to Your Account>Your Recommendations and see how much they know about your purchasing history/habits. I guess SYW is SHLD trying to do the same. I returned a $90 usb microphone (condensor mic) because it just didn't work well. No return shipping! So far, I've never had to pay return shipping. If it didn't work well that's an Amazon error and you probably selected Defective/Does not work properly as the reason. In that case they will pay for return shipping for that. If the reason you select is say Accidental order or No longer needed Wanted then they will deduct shipping costs from your refund. You can try it out on your orders just stop before the final step. I haven't returned anything to Amazon but I ran some tests by going through the process and trying out different reasons. Its also included in their returns policy and FAQs etc. Anyways the point I was trying to make is that shipping costs are making a difference to Amazon so they have decided to charge for returns where its not their fault. An item is $100 at Sears/Target/Walmart and only $80 at Amazon. Customer decides he/she doesn't want/like/need it and returns it to Amazon. Customer loses $30 in return shipping to Amazon vs getting a full refund from Sears/Walmart/Target. Once a customer has to pay returns a few times that are a major percentage of the purchase price say 30-40% this customer may revert back to traditional retailers for some of his purchases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Another Store closing. http://www.al.com/business/index.ssf/2014/01/sears_to_close_store_at_decatu.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 what do you think would be probably the pro Ratio of Shares from lands end per Sears Holding Shares? also how much do we probably get per share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Are all the stores closing so far leases not renewed? It's the easiest way to close them, so we should expect all the leases to close before the own properties, right? Or at least shrink if they can find a nice sublease? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I started a thread in general just to list store closings so we can keep this thread a bit more manageable. I wonder how much they stocked the stores they knew would close by mar/apr in advance of the holidays. Are all the stores closing so far leases not renewed? It's the easiest way to close them, so we should expect all the leases to close before the own properties, right? Or at least shrink if they can find a nice sublease? The large majority of the stores are being closed and the reason given is "lease not renewed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 down 46% in 2 months :o. i bought more today :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 with sears, swing is expected. maybe after 2 months, you think you should have bot more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just FYI for those looking at options, the $40-strike 2016 (24 months) calls are going for $8.45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZenaidaMacroura Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just FYI for those looking at options, the $40-strike 2016 (24 months) calls are going for $8.45. That's not bad, still a tad expensive for the time premium but 2016 is a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Somebody pointed out that SYW is scalable to any brands/retailers that want to join the network. Somebody pointed out that the other stores in the mall may want to leverage the Sears platform for online fulfillment, in-store returns The big box anchor stores might be a good size to serve as online fulfillment, return at mall centers So the Sears department store at the mall might get nuked, but SHLD might retain the asset and use it as "fullment center as a service" I've been wondering what the REIT executive is doing sitting on the SHLD board of directors. Maybe he is there to help with the "Mall Strikes Back" strategy. It serves his company's interests to strengthen the rents at malls, which is what would happen if brands/retailers located in malls could have this big online fulfillment center that processes free in-store returns. There is a benefit to getting the customer to return the item to the store -- not just return charges, but a chance for a salesperson to engage the customer and sell them more stuff. You could imagine a store like "The Gap" perhaps moving some of it's inventory into a fulfillment warehouse that is now the Sears department store. Suppose somebody then orders a pair of Jeans online from the Gap -- it get shipped out of the nearest "former-Sears" location. But what if they want to pick it up in the store for a lower price to save on shipping -- oh, how convenient... a runner can walk 3 minutes to go deliver it to the Gap storefront. So the customer drives to the mall and goes to the Gap showroom/storefront to pick it up. While there, they make other spontaneous purchases at the Gap and other mall stores. Perhaps by keeping less inventory in the stores themselves, the mall retailers can have more expansive showrooms (smaller stockrooms as it gets outsourced to the prior Sears department store mall anchor). The mall retailers may find this useful and great, and might not. I'm just brainstorming, trying on different ideas to see what sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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