SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp

[walt373]

I noticed that the SHLD bonds with near maturities are all trading near par, while the further out maturities are trading at 50c on the dollar. Is the bond market telling us they expect SHLD to stay alive for at least a couple years? Or am I missing something here?

[Marve2013]

the transcript seems more narrative-oriented relative to previous ones, as if another Chairman's letter in disguise. 

 

https://searsholdings.com/docs/investor/eap/shc-q3-2016-earnings-call-transcript.pdf

 

[NoCalledStrikes]

the transcript seems more narrative-oriented relative to previous ones, as if another Chairman's letter in disguise. 

 

https://searsholdings.com/docs/investor/eap/shc-q3-2016-earnings-call-transcript.pdf

 

Let me be clear what we mean by not intending to borrow money to fund continued operating losses.

 

"Let me be clear what we mean" = Please disregard the truthfulness of the following words.

[paperwerks]

Sears vendors demand cash!

 

http://www.debtwire.com/info/2016/12/16/sears-hit-cash-advance-requests-vendors/

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Market cap goes below $1bn. Does this mean the springing lien that the PBGC have on certain Sears assets now gets triggered?

[oddballstocks]

Sears reminds me of the Ernest Hemmingway quote:

 

“How did you go bankrupt?"

Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

[Candyman1]

Market cap goes below $1bn. Does this mean the springing lien that the PBGC have on certain Sears assets now gets triggered?

 

PBGC has the right, but not the obligation.

[adesigar]

Market cap goes below $1bn. Does this mean the springing lien that the PBGC have on certain Sears assets now gets triggered?

 

PBGC has the right, but not the obligation.

Also if I remember right. It needs to be below at end of day. Maybe it happens tomorrow.

 

[dyow]

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting. 

 

[Picasso]

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting.

 

I think you're on to something.  www.reddit.com/r/floridaman might lend some credence to this theory.

 

 

Maybe someone can do some scuttlebutt in case Berkowitz has a pet gator.

[dyow]

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting.

 

I think you're on to something.  www.reddit.com/r/floridaman might lend some credence to this theory.

 

 

Maybe someone can do some scuttlebutt in case Berkowitz has a pet gator.

 

lmfao at those headlines.....the worst place on earth would have to be a prison in florida

 

....and lol at rambo with shades in a santa suit 

[muscleman]

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting.

 

He moved to Florida in 2006 right? He still had a few good years after that didn't he?

 

 

[dyow]

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting.

 

He moved to Florida in 2006 right? He still had a few good years after that didn't he?

 

The financial crisis/stocks crashing started in 2007 and ended in 2009 and everything was so correlated so it is difficult to say. After the rally from the crash he did make a lot of moves that didn't go his way, he sold stocks that went higher and bought Citi, mbia, bac, joe, sears   

[Guest roark33]

It doesn't get any better than this:

 

[BargainValueHunter]

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting. 

 

This photograph marked the top of the Bruce Berkowitz Bubble IMHO:

 

[tng]

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting.

 

I think it is simple. Berkowitz is just stuck in it. Sears is not liquid enough for him to sell off and if he starts selling his fund is going to blow up as clients will lose faith and hedge funds may engineer a short selling attack knowing that he must sell to fulfill redemptions.

 

If Berkowitz is unconstrained, I am certain he would have been buying BAC at $12 a few months ago. It was one of his favorite positions in the past and the thesis had not changed (he clearly still believes in it as he holds some warrants). Why wouldn't he add to it when BAC's price collapsed without any major negative event affecting the fundamentals? Berkowitz was forced to sell out of AIG and BAC prematurely because those were his only liquid positions and his clients were redeeming money. Now his fund is a bet on a basket of illiquid all-or-nothing type bets in Sears, Freddie/Fannie, and St. Joe. I used to have some money in Fairholme, but I sold out because it is obvious that I can do better cloning him than investing in his fund because I am not constrained by liquidity. I held a huge position in BAC and that paid off big in the last two months. I'm sure if Berkowitz were unconstrained by liquidity, he would have made a lot of money in BAC too.

[dyow]

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting.

 

I think it is simple. Berkowitz is just stuck in it. Sears is not liquid enough for him to sell off and if he starts selling his fund is going to blow up as clients will lose faith and hedge funds may engineer a short selling attack knowing that he must sell to fulfill redemptions.

 

If Berkowitz is unconstrained, I am certain he would have been buying BAC at $12 a few months ago. It was one of his favorite positions in the past and the thesis had not changed (he clearly still believes in it as he holds some warrants). Why wouldn't he add to it when BAC's price collapsed without any major negative event affecting the fundamentals? Berkowitz was forced to sell out of AIG and BAC prematurely because those were his only liquid positions and his clients were redeeming money. Now his fund is a bet on a basket of illiquid all-or-nothing type bets in Sears, Freddie/Fannie, and St. Joe. I used to have some money in Fairholme, but I sold out because it is obvious that I can do better cloning him than investing in his fund because I am not constrained by liquidity. I held a huge position in BAC and that paid off big in the last two months. I'm sure if Berkowitz were unconstrained by liquidity, he would have made a lot of money in BAC too.

 

 

You are probably right.  But i thought he was adding to his position recently......maybe not.  Either way i am starting a position if it goes below $5..........it is worth $150 according to bruce so that is a potential CAGR of 3000000000%.  Worth a shot and the ride should be entertaining.

 

 

[dyow]

It doesn't get any better than this:

 

lol

 

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting. 

 

This photograph marked the top of the Bruce Berkowitz Bubble IMHO:

 

 

I think that pic came from this article...red flags everywhere

 

http://fortune.com/2010/12/10/bruce-berkowitz-the-megamind-of-miami/

[BargainValueHunter]

It doesn't get any better than this:

 

lol

 

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting. 

 

This photograph marked the top of the Bruce Berkowitz Bubble IMHO:

 

 

I think that pic came from this article...red flags everywhere

 

http://fortune.com/2010/12/10/bruce-berkowitz-the-megamind-of-miami/

Yes...that article. Before that picture, Berkowitz was the semi-anonymous investor who stuck to his value principles of "counting the cash" and trying and failing to "kill" his portfolio companies. He didn't look for too much mainstream publicity.

 

That photo layout was literally the first time I saw him in a "glossy spread" which has only worked out for one guy...some investor from Omaha...I forget his name. ;)

 

By the time the big media pins you down for a photoshoot because you have been so successful and you are just a finance guy (and not a movie star or star athelete) you may have hit your professional peak.

[Jurgis]

I have shoes like his. Does this count?

[BTShine]

It doesn't get any better than this:

 

lol

 

If this stock goes under $5 i am putting it in my speculation pool.

 

Honestly this stock is a head scratcher.  I still don't understand what the catalyst is for this stock yet berkowitz keeps holding on.

 

I notice bruce berkowitz started going downhill pretty much near the time he moved to florida.....this is all crazy speculation but he initially lived on the east coast so i wonder if the move to florida and the sun changed his brain (vitamin d relaxes blood vessels and calms the body and mind...i live in a cold area and when i take vit d in the winter i feel the effects pretty quickly....i feel very chill like i spent a day in the sun). 

 

In theory, if you are living in a cold area for long and suddenly move to a warmer climate it could change your brain chemistry. 

 

I think tepper just moved to florida, if he starts buying sears then this theory gets more interesting. 

 

This photograph marked the top of the Bruce Berkowitz Bubble IMHO:

 

 

I think that pic came from this article...red flags everywhere

 

http://fortune.com/2010/12/10/bruce-berkowitz-the-megamind-of-miami/

Yes...that article. Before that picture, Berkowitz was the semi-anonymous investor who stuck to his value principles of "counting the cash" and trying and failing to "kill" his portfolio companies. He didn't look for too much mainstream publicity.

 

That photo layout was literally the first time I saw him in a "glossy spread" which has only worked out for one guy...some investor from Omaha...I forget his name. ;)

 

By the time the big media pins you down for a photoshoot because you have been so successful and you are just a finance guy (and not a movie star or star athelete) you may have hit your professional peak.

 

 

Has this not happened to Carl Icahn?  I think there may be some confirmation bias here with the 'publicity = peak'?  There must be other investors that have been profiled mid-career and had continued success.  Peter Lynch?  Others?

[Gregmal]

The biggest thing I'd take from this is that the consistent truth with guys who run a concentrated fund is that you can never, ever admit you were wrong. The whole premise of being concentrated stems from having superior ability to analyze a company. Being really wrong undermines this entire premise, and calls into question your entire business model. Hence Ackman still thinks he can salvage VRX, Berkowitz has sold all his winners to hold his illiquid losers, etc. Of course Buffett is the exception here, but Buffett is always the exception.

[DooDiligence]

Anyone here think Ackman looks a little like a poodle?

[Marve2013]

At current prices, Lampert and Berkowitz can easily take SHLD private ... maybe $200 -$300 bucks tops.  Any particular reasons why not?

 

- Berkowitz Fund (mutual fund structure) can't hold positions in private companies (but I'm sure there is a way to structure it if they wanted to)

 

- Maintain access to capital mkts (ouch, is it worth it) for bonds ands rights offerings

 

The both of them combined together are already at 70%++ of total shares. 

[BargainValueHunter]

At current prices, Lampert and Berkowitz can easily take SHLD private ... maybe $200 -$300 bucks tops.  Any particular reasons why not?

 

- Berkowitz Fund (mutual fund structure) can't hold positions in private companies (but I'm sure there is a way to structure it if they wanted to)

 

- Maintain access to capital mkts (ouch, is it worth it) for bonds ands rights offerings

 

The both of them combined together are already at 70%++ of total shares. 

Berkowitz runs a separate hedge fund too.

 

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20131006005065/en/Fairholme-Capital-Management-Launches-Fairholme-Partnership-Institutional

 

The Partnership seeks long-term growth of capital by investing in a focused portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities acquired at prices well below Fairholme’s estimate of intrinsic value. Such securities may include preferred and common stock, bank debt, convertible securities and bonds, warrants, and interests in real estate investment trusts. The Partnership may also engage in opportunistic hedges and invest in special situations such as reorganizations, recapitalizations, restructurings, and other corporate transactional events.