Green King Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 A lot of these successful people we like to admire have severe personality flaws that show up in weird ways. This does not bode well for Picasso's future success as I have generally found him to be a nice and upstanding guy...no clear personality flaws that would lead to mind-blowing success. Is my logic sound here? Did you hear that Picasso? roark33 thinks you are flawless. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philly value Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Eddie Lampert was the "next Warren Buffett" a decade ago. Now people are having fun at him. Opinions about people are such a volatile thing... I think after 10+ years of contradictory evidence it's very fair to change ones' opinion of a person's abilities. I wouldn't consider it overly volatile. I mean obviously Lampert chose to wrap his entire fund and legacy into one business. It turns out he was wrong on Sears. Even the best investors are frequently wrong, the issue here is he put too many chips in one basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Eddie Lampert was the "next Warren Buffett" a decade ago. Now people are having fun at him. Opinions about people are such a volatile thing... I think after 10+ years of contradictory evidence it's very fair to change ones' opinion of a person's abilities. I wouldn't consider it overly volatile. I mean obviously Lampert chose to wrap his entire fund and legacy into one business. It turns out he was wrong on Sears. Even the best investors are frequently wrong, the issue here is he put too many chips in one basket. Exactly. It's ok to be wrong...unless you bet the farm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 The consensus MSM was wrong on Eddie ten years ago, and I suppose there's a chance the consensus MSM is wrong on him now. He still seems confident in what they're doing today. Time will tell what happens to shareholders and thankfully SHLD is not the only investment opportunity in the stock market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Partner24 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Warren Buffet was asked about Sears when Lampert took the helm. He said something like "it is a hard business to turn around". Not exactly that, but that was the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Candyman1 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Open question to all: What would it take to get you interested in, or more interested in SHLD? For me, SHLD was one of my largest positions a couple of years ago when they were consistently producing free cash flow and repurchasing shares. I viewed it not as a retailer but as a giant pile of assets being priced as if it were scrap.... and every quarter that passed, I owned more and more of it. The stores were always weak but I like Bruce Berkowitz point that SHLD has more real estate than Simon Property Group yet only has 1/10th the market value... On top of that you have greater than $50/share of net inventory. The share repurchases have stopped. The free cash flow has dried up, and today I sit and wait, not really adding but not selling either. Thoughts anyone? I sincerely doubt that SHLD has more real estate value embedded in it than SPG does. In addition not sure where you get that $50 a share in inventory number? I would suggest you might also want to take a look at the liability side of the balance sheet. I assume you noticed that SHLD currently has minus 3.8 billion in equity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Candyman1 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 You take the minus 3.8 billion in negative equity, then you back out the intangibles and goodwill from the Q4 2016 balance sheet and then you back out the proportional value on the balance sheet of the real estate assets. (I took the net value and divided that by the gross value and that gave me 44%. I multiplied that by the value of the real estate assets.) That gives me a negative value of minus $7.252 billion. Now I add to that number $1 billion to cover the likely minimum loss for 2017. That gets me a negative value of minus $8.252 billion for the equity minus intangibles, goodwill and real estate assets. (P.S. now this number does not include the cost of closing down the business as for example closing down a store costs on average more than $1 million. P.S.S. The losses this year are likely to be much higher than $1 billion.) So lets say Eddie decides tomorrow morning he is closing down SHLD's stores and succeeds in doing that by the end of 2017. Well do the assets then cover the minus $8.252 billion? I don't think so. Now to be more correct, I should also include the value of the equity in this calculation. After all in order to get a return on your equity, the value of the assets need to exceed the value of the equity too, but I want to be conservative so I will not do so. But not hard for someone that add that number if needed. Also that assumes that the inventory will be worth 100 cents on the dollar in case of a liquidation of SHLD. I would put that number likely closer to 50 cents on the dollar. Anyone have any specific expectations for Q1? Given that SSS are again -10% plus I am expecting pretty horrible numbers for Q1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Are you sure you're not describing a slow motion Ponzi scheme? No wonder he's ticked off that even his last supporters want out. I will give him one thing - he understands Soros' principle of reflexivity. Perceptions create reality, they are not just disembodied opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaufort Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 There has always been an angle to his investments. I would say angle investor is appropriate ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 OK I have been thinking about this a lot. I have a 2 point plan to immediately extract value from the stock. Maybe i can bring this plan to vote. 1) Immediately rebrand by changing the names to: Amasears and K bart This gives both brands a fresh look and should confuse shoppers enough to gain sales momentum and stop the comp store sale declines. The brands sears and k mart will never be mentioned again. They will only be referred to as "they who must not be named". 2) Put SYW up for sale on craigslist. SYW makes $2B-4B in sales?? so at one time revenue we can post it for sale at "$3B OBO" make sure to highlight OBO. If an acceptable price cannot be obtained then: http://fortune.com/2017/02/17/target-stock-bomb-florida/ hire this man, give him a hammer (maybe bruce would join too??) and ski masks, and break into hoffman estates at 3am and smash the main motherboard CPU thingy for the SYW system. Smash it into itty bitty pieces, without mercy. Also the hammer used should be a craftsman hammer, and it should be bought with SYW points.....to send a message. I would assume the stock price would jump 200% on the news. We all know SYW is holding the real estate hostage. That is all...for now You are a godamned genius! Heartfelt apologies 4 previous disagreement. Stay thirsty my friend (everyone calm down, that's not gonna become my tagline...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 Whatever happened to the 2017 letter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 http://www.businessinsider.com/sears-stores-are-falling-apart-employees-say-2017-6 https://www.thestreet.com/slideshow/14208745/17/i-am-a-millennial-that-just-went-to-kmart-for-the-first-time-ever-and-couldn-t-believe-this-place.html Are all the Sears/KMart locations as bad as this, or are the better performing locations taken better care of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 http://www.businessinsider.com/sears-stores-are-falling-apart-employees-say-2017-6 https://www.thestreet.com/slideshow/14208745/17/i-am-a-millennial-that-just-went-to-kmart-for-the-first-time-ever-and-couldn-t-believe-this-place.html Are all the Sears/KMart locations as bad as this, or are the better performing locations taken better care of? The Kmart in my area is MUCH better stocked/taken care of than the one profiled in the article. HOWEVER, even at that higher level, the store is rough around the edges. You can tell maintenance and improvements have been put off for YEARS. Most of the clothing is private label stuff and EXTREMELY cheap stuff. In my mind, there is simply no way that SHLD is going to ever get back to profitability...they are simply trying to run out the clock as long as possible. Wal-Mart, Meijers, and other competitors are simply going to steam roll SHLD. The only question is how long will it take? 6 months, 12 months, 18 months? SHLD is done, put a fork in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 http://blog.searsholdings.com/eddie-lampert/transformation-update/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Does anyone have access to, or a copy of, Alexander's bankruptcy filing documents from May 1992? Here's an interesting article from the NYT covering their demise and bankruptcy. http://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/16/business/alexander-s-shuts-all-its-11-stores-plans-liquidation.html?pagewanted=all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matson125 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Things have really heated up since Berkowitz joined the board. Sears Holdings Announces Secured Line Of Credit Facility And Real Estate Transactions http://searsholdings.com/press-releases/pr/2049 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 http://blog.searsholdings.com/eddie-lampert/transformation-update/ As I have said before, the level of support we have from our vendors is an important factor in defining the size of our business and the number of stores we can operate responsibly going forward. We reached the point in the past 12 months where some of our vendors have reduced their support thereby placing additional pressure on our business. Despite this challenge, we have been working and fighting hard to improve our operational performance and streamline our organization. I see merchandise payables hit under $1b for the recent quarter. For Eddie to specifically mention this suggests to me that suppliers pulling the plug might just be the stake that will finally finish this zombie off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Retail archaeology at Sears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 https://searsholdings.com/press-releases/pr/2051 Sears is selling Kenmore appliances through Amazon and has partnered to create Alexa Enabled Smart Appliances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 SHLD selling Kenmore on Amazon… Isn’t this just giving customers one less reason to go to a Sears store? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 SHLD selling Kenmore on Amazon… Isn’t this just giving customers one less reason to go to a Sears store? Yes.... And one more reason to continue closing down the stores and recognize the value/capital tied up in the real-estate footprint while still maintaining a good portion of the revenue. Seems like a great move to me as they slowly wind down Sears physical presence. Haven't owned the stock since the 2014 rights offering that left a bad taste in my mouth, but I'm considering rolling some of these puts into an underlying position in the common to have the upside that may come from an accelerated wind-down that they seem to be gearing up for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 SHLD selling Kenmore on Amazon… Isn’t this just giving customers one less reason to go to a Sears store? But they can "Shop Your Way" on Amazon! 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 SHLD selling Kenmore on Amazon… Isn’t this just giving customers one less reason to go to a Sears store? Yes.... And one more reason to continue closing down the stores and recognize the value/capital tied up in the real-estate footprint while still maintaining a good portion of the revenue. Seems like a great move to me as they slowly wind down Sears physical presence. Haven't owned the stock since the 2014 rights offering that left a bad taste in my mouth, but I'm considering rolling some of these puts into an underlying position in the common to have the upside that may come from an accelerated wind-down that they seem to be gearing up for. Question is, does lower foot traffic properly compensated with higher online sales? Otherwise, higher cash burn from stores keeps eating into whatever value there is in real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 SHLD selling Kenmore on Amazon… Isn’t this just giving customers one less reason to go to a Sears store? Yes.... And one more reason to continue closing down the stores and recognize the value/capital tied up in the real-estate footprint while still maintaining a good portion of the revenue. Seems like a great move to me as they slowly wind down Sears physical presence. Haven't owned the stock since the 2014 rights offering that left a bad taste in my mouth, but I'm considering rolling some of these puts into an underlying position in the common to have the upside that may come from an accelerated wind-down that they seem to be gearing up for. Question is, does lower foot traffic properly compensated with higher online sales? Otherwise, higher cash burn from stores keeps eating into whatever value there is in real estate. I don't disagree in the near term. Any acceleration in losses at the individual stores SHOULD translate into an acceleration of the liquidation process. Eddie couldn't justify putting tens of thousands out of their livelihood to get at the real estate, particularly if a store was modestly profitable or breakeven. But if the economics of the stores deteriorates, you are now covered to close the location because nobody expects you to operate at a loss. This IS the bullish scenario for those who want to get at the real estate - Sears online cannibalizing it's own physical stores so you can close the store, unlock the value of the real estate, and still keep a portion of the revenues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 I feel like people who would buy an Alexa enabled smart-appliance online are unlikely to know that Sears operates physical stores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now