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SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp


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Checking out the women in malls makes it a less painful visit!

 

 

Has my wife yet figured out that I buy her presents from the stores with the most flirtatious sales girls?

 

That is top secret info from the old married guys playbook.

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In reality, if it were to be Berkshire like, it would pivot and exit retailing and move cash resources into another more long-term value generating business via acquisition or money management.

 

I don't know if 'pivot' is the right word here.. maybe more like 'run off' then 'redirect'?  didn't Buffett take 10 years + to wind down/run off the berkshire textile mill?  I remember reading recently that he even bought another mill in the process no?

 

I think the message wasn't lost...

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I find interesting that Lampert seems to be "blaming" a lot of what has happened to them to online retailing. Also interesting to read that he "claims" to be one of the very few to see the inescapable terminal decline of traditional retail. To my knowledge, traditional retailing has grown since 2006 despite the faster growth seen at online retailing. There are winners and losers and unfortunately, their operation is in the latter category.

 

For all of you who believe that online retailing will be everything in the future then I say good luck. It will represent a big percentage of the pie, but not all of it. It will be big especially for the boring and recurring part of shopping. However, going to the marketplace to find goods has been a human activity since the beginning of times. It is a social activity while shopping online, on your own, is not. It may change with virtual reality, but we are not there yet and I also suspect that the physical activity associated with walking through shops may be seen as a benefit going forward with jobs requiring less and less physical effort. Get out of your tech labs and go to the mall or an outlet mall. Look at the beautiful women hunting around and chatting to each other about this and that. Then you may see the light.

 

What is lacking at Sears is an enjoyable shopping experience and the goods that you are looking for. One thing that I know about Sears since a very long time is to never buy anything that is not at a major discount. The staff will even tell you to come back in a week since the article that you are looking for will sell at 30 or 50% of the current price! What kind of strategy is that? Not only is it inconvenient, it creates a bad reputation. So on that count, I know that the JC Penney strategy of fair prices and better inventory is the right one. It may be too late to reverse the reputation at JC Penney, but I can't see how this is wrong.

 

Regarding investing in the stores, there is a limit to cutting spending on displays that add no value, to no spending at all which makes the stores obsolete and looking like garbage bins to shoppers. He says that he invested selectively, but it is pretty hard for me to see where at supposedly winning stores. The technology push and membership idea are definitely good ones, however I am not sure that it is enough to turn around such massive operation with so many square feet.

 

Anyhow, I would love to hear about your upside target on Sears and HOW it gets there. What is your thesis? By the way, that Lampert or Berkowitz owns it in size does not cut it. He says that he got $1 billion out of 300 closed stores with half of them in the last year. There are 2,500 left. Doing the math, you get $8.3 billion. Add back their cash, substract short term debt and all long term liabilities and you get about $0. If he gets double that amount, then there is $78 left per share. Not even sure if that is realistic considering that they are still bleeding money overall and that there should be a glut of retail space going forward if he is right about online retail. If it is not a liquidation thesis, then is it based on earnings? What is it?

 

Cardboard

 

You are absolutely on the money here Cardboard.  The reason Sears is getting killed is because EL did not invest in upgrading the stores.  For crying out loud, they closed their flagship Canadian store down the road from me.  Nordstron is moving in.  This mall is permanently busy, every day of the week.  People come from 40 miles around.  Apple, Sony, Lululemon, the Bay, Holt Renfrew, and everyone else has done excellent at this location.  Not Sears.  To my recollection they threw in the towel years ago.  The Sears Home location across the street is a horror show.

 

The fault rests solely with Lampert.  Retail requires constant reinvention and investment.  Lampert is an example of the Peter Principle in action.  Great as a passive investor but lousy as an operations person. 

 

Former SHLD shareholder who has studied the numbers. 

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Recent bad Sears Home experience:

 

Two years ago we bought aound 10 k of appliances, and furniture from the local store.  I used my Sears card and had alot of points.  I had 170 left plus a few gift cards from Christmas etc.

 

In Janaury I went in to buy a mattress set and had agreed to purchase one.  I was directed to the business desk where it was discovered that my points had been erased from Sears system.  We called their bank which re-instated the points.  I had to give my name, address, birth date etc.  The points didn't show up in the Sears system.  The staff person called her manager, who said they needed proof on their system that the points were reinstated.  We called again and were assured they were coming through.  Waited nearly an hour in total.  Called again and was told I needed to make a purchase before the points were activated.  At this point I gave up, crunched up the Sears card in my hand, spoke loud enough for the two store mangers to hear me, that I was leaving.  No one did a thing. 

 

I made very clear I would never shop at Sears again. 

 

This was not the first time.  Another time we tried to buy a crib for my newborn (3.5 yrs ago).  We liked the model on the floor.  The lady looked it up and couldn't find it in stock (while she was telling me this I am standing by the floor model).  She didn't offer me floor model at a discount.  We went to Toys R Us across the street and bought the same crib on the spot at the same price. 

 

At a certain point consumers give up, and no amount of advertising will ever bring them back.  Sears is long past that point.  And it is 100 % Lamperts fault.

 

The retailing will never recover, and the brands have no significant value.  So you are left with the real estate.

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I think the brands hold value and are tremendous assets in the context that if Home Depot sold Craftsman tools they'd do great. Or any of those things like DieHard, could make it themselves if they felt the need to expand their reach. Until they can really call the retail a lost front, they cannot do much with those brands except small stuff. I don't think there will be Kenmore in other stores until SHLD has rid itself of the idea that its stores will thrive. They will decline but somewhere down the road the economy picks up, and the remaining stores will make more money and things will be fine. Until that day you can argue who did the right and wrong thing, but remember this - if you consider that JCP spent a year just trying to change the way THEY sold their products, which had such a massive influence on customers who decided to STOP shopping there (which is funny because every JCP I saw after Ron Johnson arrived looked a lot better, and the signs were upbeat and it appeared they spent a lot of cash on store fixes) that customers left. They are down double digits!

 

And all they did was improve themselves, who would have thought? I think JCP essentially proved ESL's point that every retailer is going through major shifts in a storm they don't even understand. They can pretend money will solve things, that didn't work at Best Buy, which has a ton of cash. And it isnt about store appearances by the JCP situation, or even better, Barnes & Noble which to me, has some of the nicest real estate and locations/upkeep. You could sit there and blame the book market is old, its in secular decline... but how do you explain that to Amazon who kicks ass at both selling books in hardcopy and digital? Or how is it that WEB keeps buying print news? Or that the WSJ is blowing out the lights on subscriptions to their paper? I think theres a lot more to the story of Sears and retail in general - we don't agree on ESL's strategy on our message board but I think if you really went to a JCP and convinced yourself it was a 'better' experience you would be missing the point because you'd be 100% right but also 100% wrong on how that didn't change their relative situations. Cheers.

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The JCP experiment proves nothing at all relative to what Lampert is talking about. It just proves that when you are a retailer selling junk at discounts that it is very hard to lose that reputation and do something totally different. You brought up Best Buy. Why is it that traffic was up during the Holidays and that they reported better than expected profits? Could it be that people still like to see, touch and take away the item with them if the price is right? Could it be proving that the Amazon price match is working?

 

Regarding Sears, many of you seem to be waiting for a revival of the economy or more particularly of housing starts and that it will translate into boom time for Sears and its appliances. To be honest, when I look for an appliance, I don't even think of Sears as a seller of appliances and I can't imagine that I am alone. Now, if you consider that shoppers going to Sears are also on the decline, then what is going to make them think of Sears and Kenmore down the road? And the brands! Kenmore, Diehard and Craftsman. Sounds like brands from the past such as Singer, Quasar and AMC. What is the value of these? Are these goods selling at a premium because they have some very special features or are they just commodities with a name on them?

 

If Lampert is absolutely convinced that investing in its stores is not profitable because bricks and mortars are doomed then I am scratching my head as to why he keeps operating them now at a loss. Is it really to make a few profits on appliances once the economy gets better. Then what happens during the next recession? Makes no sense. Liquidate the whole thing now if that is what he thinks or before there is a glut of retail space with all these retailers caught and lost in that major storm. 

 

Cardboard

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I don't think anyone knows the future - Berkowitz said it could be a grand slam if the retail works out. But hes happy even if it doesn't. And that ESL is a economic person (which I believe, too) and would not let this thing go to hell before changing his mind. BUT as he says you get ESL's future for free. Whats that worth? Hes cashed out of AZO and going after small positions in other stocks, and that tells me every single day his future becomes more and more tied to that of Sears. Berkowitz also made another million and change share purchase (which, for a guy whos fund is now officially closed to new investors, makes him too, much more concentrated in that stock).

 

The impatient ones gave up years ago. Soon there will be really nobody left which is great if you want to accumulate control which is part of ESL and BB's strategy no matter how it may seem ethically - its in his and Fairholme's interest that Sears remain a heavily shorted, unloved stock so they buy more and more. The way I see it, they'll wind up selling half the stores over the next 10 years anyways. I wish it happened much faster but thats just not in the cards.

 

They are the smartest mutual fund manager, and smartest hedge fund managers I know of, and invested in the same company with reasonable conviction. Skin in the game is why they have no choice. Read it again, NO CHOICE but to turn it into a winning combination. I can only think of one other situation where this kind of 'stupidity' ensued for years and two hedge funds owned a lot of stock of a company and tried to accumulate more shares and power. And the operations faltered and went to crud. They even spent a lot of cash repurchasing shares and buying upgraded equipment and saw the thing go further down. They kept buying it and people were baffled. They got together and set out to earn 24 billion in 2012... and said it was a dud year.

 

I've certainly heard of big hedge funds going after single investments or getting blown up. But not this way, not the way its been playing out.

 

That means they could easily just turn around and buy stocks or a insurance business, or make aquisitions that turn them into Berkshire Hathaway! They have that option and are not blind to it. But they are not doing it yet, which pisses everyone off because we don't quite see it as ESL sees it - a return to previous earnings would be amazing because theyve got fewer shares outstanding and own more of it. So if that doesnt happen, they could sell a lot of their assets and make cash, which can buy more stock. Basically my opinion boils down to this: you get either a company that stays afloat because of a tepid return to profits and a better economy OR you get a investment vehicle for two smart guys - or kind of both? I see all three as a winning outcome.

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Checking out the women in malls makes it a less painful visit!

 

 

Has my wife yet figured out that I buy her presents from the stores with the most flirtatious sales girls?

 

Haha, does she know about this forum?

 

This is where the good juju comes from, is what she understand about this forum.  Now, it doesn't matter where you get your appetite as long as you come home to eat.

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Regarding Sears, many of you seem to be waiting for a revival of the economy or more particularly of housing starts and that it will translate into boom time for Sears and its appliances. To be honest, when I look for an appliance, I don't even think of Sears as a seller of appliances and I can't imagine that I am alone. Now, if you consider that shoppers going to Sears are also on the decline, then what is going to make them think of Sears and Kenmore down the road? And the brands! Kenmore, Diehard and Craftsman. Sounds like brands from the past such as Singer, Quasar and AMC. What is the value of these? Are these goods selling at a premium because they have some very special features or are they just commodities with a name on them?

 

I agree that he messed up by not improving the stores at key locations.  Personally I also don't think of sears when I want an appliance, but according to their site:

http://commercial.sears.com/aboutus/scs_kenmore.html

"Kenmore's market share is extraordinary -- 50 percent higher than its closest competitor."

 

I'm not sure if that's declined or been steady.

They are also the largest appliance servicer and home services company, in the country, which is recurring revenue.  Whether I think of them or not is not necessarily relevant.  It does prove that I'm not a current customer, but it does not show that they don't have customers.

 

That said, the question of whether these are just commodities with a name attached is a very good question..  They still have to have a good product and service offering, and it's clear they've been falling down in that regard considering all the experiences we've heard of and seen first hand.

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To be fair.  I agree that there could be value if the cash had been redeployed when he had it.  I also expect he will redeploy some of the cash in the future if he can get it.

 

I agree that the Sears mobile business is awesome.  That is one part that has excellent value.  They need to sell the products to service and you dont do that by alienating customers.

 

What most of the public doen't know is that the Kenmore appliances are identical in every way to other brand name appliances made by GE, and others.  Bully on Sears for keeping Kenmore up there.

 

Hopefully, he is turning his eye to redeploying the cash elsewhere, unless he is planning a complete takeover.

 

Unfortnately, Sears is not the Berkshire Hathaway mill system.  It is megaloads larger.

 

If anyone wonders why I spend so much time critiquing SHLD, its because I may just be interested in buying shares one day. 

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I think that the comparison with Berkshire Hathaway is flawed big time. Buffett was able to acquire control of a company selling well below net-net working capital and the company was profitable for many years. Return on equity was subpar, but it still made money. He then set out to quickly redeploy the great majority of cash flow and whatever proceeds into insurance and other businesses. Once it became clear that the company would lose money going forward then he closed shop. By then, the textile operation was tiny relative to Berkshire.

 

Please read the 1973 annual letter from Berkshire Hathaway or about 6 or 7 years after he took control (more or less the same as Eddie). It is clear that the textile mills are profitable at that time (recession) and he was already into 4 other different businesses plus I imagine some common stocks. The strategy also seemed pretty clear to an outside investor reading Buffett while with Sears, there seems to be a dark hidden agenda.

 

Like Uccmal, I am keeping my eye on this thing. I never bought a share, but I have been watching since the merger of Kmart and Sears. What drove up my skepticism at this time is the tone of the annual letter which I read to get more insight into the current state of the retail business. If my opinion is worth anything, I think that the biggest problem in the U.S. relative to retail is the amount of competition. There are so many stores from so many different owners that it is no wonder that the business is in turmoil.

 

I went to visit a mall, so I could take a look at JC Penney. Then I saw Macy's, Dillard's and Sears all under the same roof. By the way, I ended up buying nice clothes at Dillard's at large discounts. Then you had a ton of boutiques which are also trying to sell apparels. Not saying that they are all the same, but they are all competing in apparels for a large majority of their square footing. We have nowhere near the same level of competition up here in Canada especially for department stores and it is still a tough business. It made me rethink quite a bit about the potential success of a JCP turnaround. Then you have Nordstrom, Bloomingdales, Saks, Target, Wal-Mart, Kohl's, Ross Stores, TJ Maxx, Stein Mart...

 

Not totally related, but the competition with restaurants is also amazing. You can go eat to Chili's, pick two good meals and an appetizer to share for $20, anytime. We can't even get lunch specials anywhere near these offerings up here at family restaurants. Applebee's has the same offer, although I like it less, but still amazingly affordable. Outback is also very cheap for the quality of steaks and food being offered.

 

Anyway, my hope here with Sears is to gain more knowledge from you guys in terms of its attractiveness as an investment. However, it is very tough to understand and I am disappointed that there is not more discussion about hard numbers vs qualitative factors. I am also concerned about the time is money element which is crucial to any investor, especially if you don't exercise control. Remember that Buffett was fast at Berkshire while I don't see this same sense of urgency at Sears.

 

Cardboard

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It also is important to know that jcp reported a fall in online sales growth. That's in contrast to sears growing their online business 20 or 30 percent every time they report. How can this be? Well, it is very hard to get bricks and mortar stores to convince customers of the benefit of visiting their online store! So with this membership program which also adds a few rewards and social components they can get sales to grow because customers can buy and use the brick store as well. However jcp just has a regular online site which has not as much stickiness to its brick stores. They are trying hard and their site is much nicer than last year, and I saw a kiosk in the store that is for online purchase pickups but it just wasn't enough. Also sears invested in a marketplace that really scaled to over 16 million products.

 

They have 60 percent of transactions over the shop your way program, which is over 20 billion on the total of their revenue. Means when your stores are selling to that volume of users who will use their online site to redeem rewards and coupons they'll buy stuff. It's a good idea but only time will tell. Jcp however can't generate online sales because they've failed to invest in that. Instead they believed a Levi's jeans bar was great use of cash. It was for a short bit, they generated decent sales but they'll find themselves back to square one soon.

 

I think I'm more comfortable with their strategy now than I was five years ago. They've said their online growth is what they want to strive for, it's not a confusing strategy that they can also wait till a rebound in housing to take advantage of their stores doing better, to sell them or make changes to the store base. Is giving them more time good? Yes and no, because we all get impatient. I'm restless after five years. Bruce is 8 years in and esl is 11 years into this investment. Well I'd say they also want a return on their cash and time. I believe they'll achieve it one way or another.

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It also is important to know that jcp reported a fall in online sales growth. That's in contrast to sears growing their online business 20 or 30 percent every time they report. How can this be?

 

From my experience in Sears this number maybe a little flawed.  On a couple of occasions insead of letting me grab an item and checkout they wanted me to order online right there in the store for them to go in the back and get the item.

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'Boom' - Denzel Wahsington, Training Day

 

Glad he is buying, but a %5 move in this stock in one day is nothing to write to home about. We could be at $30 next week. The real "boom" is going to take more time, IMO.

 

I sure hope it's $30 next week. Such a discount to book is a rare opportunity. ;)

 

Saying it could be at $30 next week was kind of a joke, but it would not shock me in the slightest bit and I would be ok with that.

 

The stock always seems to rally on ESL buying then it creeps it way back down. It was approaching 80 at the end of 2011 not very long after that I was able to start my position 45, then add at 37, 35 and 29 then it rallied to $80 and then back down to $39 and now he we are. But none of that is news to any of the SHLD holders.

 

I guess my point is when I log in and see %5-%6 move on my SHLD position, positive or negative I don't really pay it any mind.

 

As I think texual had mentioned SHLD has been a good stock to trade in and out of. But I am in it for the long haul and would rather ride the roller coaster than sell at what I think is a top only to miss the beginning of the "boom".

 

Or maybe I am just a sucker...

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'Boom' - Denzel Wahsington, Training Day

 

Glad he is buying, but a %5 move in this stock in one day is nothing to write to home about. We could be at $30 next week. The real "boom" is going to take more time, IMO.

 

I sure hope it's $30 next week. Such a discount to book is a rare opportunity. ;)

 

Saying it could be at $30 next week was kind of a joke, but it would not shock me in the slightest bit and I would be ok with that.

 

The stock always seems to rally on ESL buying then it creeps it way back down. It was approaching 80 at the end of 2011 not very long after that I was able to start my position 45, then add at 37, 35 and 29 then it rallied to $80 and then back down to $39 and now he we are. But none of that is news to any of the SHLD holders.

 

I guess my point is when I log in and see %5-%6 move on my SHLD position, positive or negative I don't really pay it any mind.

 

As I think texual had mentioned SHLD has been a good stock to trade in and out of. But I am in it for the long haul and would rather ride the roller coaster than sell at what I think is a top only to miss the beginning of the "boom".

 

Or maybe I am just a sucker...

 

Heh, a little slow this morning but nice one BVH ;)

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Folks, I just found this website, which makes me pretty concerned about my SHLD position.

http://www.resellerratings.com/store/Sears

 

In the latest letter, Eddie said he wants all members to be satisfied and even if 1% of transactions are unsatisfactory, it is not good. But look at there, I am surprised that no one is happy.

 

-----------------------

Update:

I did a bit more research.... It looks like this site is set up for unhappy consumers to come and complain. Other stores like ebay and Macy's also have a poor rating. Amazon's rating is high but I am not sure if Amazon hired people to post there and give 5 stars. But when I searched for ratings for Primotronix.com, I can tell that the posters giving 5 stars are likely Primotronix.com's own sales people, because all they say is quite similar.

 

But anyway, Amazon's rating there is very high, and the posters giving 5 stars look like real consumers. So I think if Sears.com wants to compete with Amazon.com, they need more work to do.

 

Can anyone please tell me why Eddie built sears.com and also shopyourway.com? Why not combine them into one site?

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Folks, I just found this website, which makes me pretty concerned about my SHLD position.

http://www.resellerratings.com/store/Sears

 

In the latest letter, Eddie said he wants all members to be satisfied and even if 1% of transactions are unsatisfactory, it is not good. But look at there, I am surprised that no one is happy.

 

-----------------------

Update:

I did a bit more research.... It looks like this site is set up for unhappy consumers to come and complain. Other stores like ebay and Macy's also have a poor rating. Amazon's rating is high but I am not sure if Amazon hired people to post there and give 5 stars. But when I searched for ratings for Primotronix.com, I can tell that the posters giving 5 stars are likely Primotronix.com's own sales people, because all they say is quite similar.

 

But anyway, Amazon's rating there is very high, and the posters giving 5 stars look like real consumers. So I think if Sears.com wants to compete with Amazon.com, they need more work to do.

 

Can anyone please tell me why Eddie built sears.com and also shopyourway.com? Why not combine them into one site?

 

I follow Sears on twitter and facebook. There are angry posters who have had issues with appliances not being fixed or something not being shipped on time. Hard to tell if it is a material % of customers though. 

 

One thing that does me concern me is their market place. Sellers on the market place are often responsible for online complaints that I have seen, but the blame falls on Sears. I had a friend post something on facebook to the tune of the "I found this pressure cooker on Amazon for $200 cheaper than Sears.com, no wonder they are going out of business!". I went and looked at Sears.com and sure enough it was a third party market place reseller who had a bunch of stuff at uncompetitive prices. Of course the perception is that Sears has horrible pricing.

 

Not sure if Amazon customers are just more familiar with the market place settings, or maybe they do a better job in the UI of making it clear you are not buying from them. But yeah the Sears market place worries me. It would be nice to see them have a better handle on this, especially because I am guessing a decent amount of Sears.com shoppers are not veteran online shoppers, but I could be wrong on that assumption.

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Folks, I just found this website, which makes me pretty concerned about my SHLD position.

http://www.resellerratings.com/store/Sears

 

In the latest letter, Eddie said he wants all members to be satisfied and even if 1% of transactions are unsatisfactory, it is not good. But look at there, I am surprised that no one is happy.

 

-----------------------

Update:

I did a bit more research.... It looks like this site is set up for unhappy consumers to come and complain. Other stores like ebay and Macy's also have a poor rating. Amazon's rating is high but I am not sure if Amazon hired people to post there and give 5 stars. But when I searched for ratings for Primotronix.com, I can tell that the posters giving 5 stars are likely Primotronix.com's own sales people, because all they say is quite similar.

 

But anyway, Amazon's rating there is very high, and the posters giving 5 stars look like real consumers. So I think if Sears.com wants to compete with Amazon.com, they need more work to do.

 

Can anyone please tell me why Eddie built sears.com and also shopyourway.com? Why not combine them into one site?

 

I follow Sears on twitter and facebook. There are angry posters who have had issues with appliances not being fixed or something not being shipped on time. Hard to tell if it is a material % of customers though. 

 

One thing that does me concern me is their market place. Sellers on the market place are often responsible for online complaints that I have seen, but the blame falls on Sears. I had a friend post something on facebook to the tune of the "I found this pressure cooker on Amazon for $200 cheaper than Sears.com, no wonder they are going out of business!". I went and looked at Sears.com and sure enough it was a third party market place reseller who had a bunch of stuff at uncompetitive prices. Of course the perception is that Sears has horrible pricing.

 

Not sure if Amazon customers are just more familiar with the market place settings, or maybe they do a better job in the UI of making it clear you are not buying from them. But yeah the Sears market place worries me. It would be nice to see them have a better handle on this, especially because I am guessing a decent amount of Sears.com shoppers are not veteran online shoppers, but I could be wrong on that assumption.

 

Amazon is of course better in showing who the seller is. When you open an item, you can click "New" or "Used", and then it shows a list of sellers with each seller's price. Then you choose the seller. So if you feel unhappy, you blame that seller instead of Amazon.

 

sears.com only shows non-sears items as "Market Place" items, but who knows what that means.

 

In the most recent annual letter, Eddie said that by closing 300 stores, SHLD received over $1 bn cash. I am pretty confused about this, as I do not see an item like "Gain on sale of assets" showing in the annual 8-K as a significant number, which means that they probably did close those stores and received $1 bn cash, but what is written on the book value has already fully reflected this.

 

We invest in SHLD because of the hidden value in the real estates. But if the hidden value does not exist, then I don't see why we should invest in SHLD. Can anyone help me clarify this, please?

http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9121448-6192-91798&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=656789&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dSHLD

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