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SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp


alertmeipp

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Interesting, but after watching that video, all I could think of was:

 

http://www.engineeringwellness.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/dutch-boy.png

 

The only people who would consider getting a Sears app and using it are probably already loyal enough that they wouldn't be using the stores as a showroom for Amazon. The rest will just never see that app.

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I'm amazed that we're still talking about guarantor/non-guarantor at this point after Kraven and I have probably explained it eight times between us at this point.

 

I haven't really followed the thread, so i haven't read all Kraven's or any of your views on the guarantor/non-guarantor subject, but i definitely didn't agree with a major part of the one post i read on it. If i have time, i'll try to read the thread this evening or this weekend and bring this subject up again.

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I'm amazed that we're still talking about guarantor/non-guarantor at this point after Kraven and I have probably explained it eight times between us at this point.

 

I haven't really followed the thread, so i haven't read all Kraven's or any of your views on the guarantor/non-guarantor subject, but i definitely didn't agree with a major part of the one post i read on it. If i have time, i'll try to read the thread this evening or this weekend and bring this subject up again.

 

valuecfa, some discussion here: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/for-all-of-you-sears-holdings-longs!/

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I'm amazed that we're still talking about guarantor/non-guarantor at this point after Kraven and I have probably explained it eight times between us at this point.

 

You're assuming that people read the full thread.

 

And, apparently 8 times is not frequent enough. If you bring up the guarantor/non-guarantor topic as frequent as the "short squeeze" one, I am sure you will be less amazed.  ;D

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Does anyone have a list of all the sell side analysts that cover the stock, or any of their reports?

 

From the past conference call, I saw the following cover the stock, but I can't find a full list on the SHLD website;

Bank of America / Merrill Lynch

Morningstar

Credit Suisse

ISI Group

Imperial Capital

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http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/01/28/3898445/miami-shores-wants-to-annex-kmart.html

The area contains no homes, but the village would need the approval of a majority of the four affected property owners — Kmart, Chase Bank, and the landowners of a vacant plot behind the bank and of the land occupied by Busy Bee Car Wash.

 

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=10700+Biscayne+Blvd,+North+Miami,+FL+33161&hl=en&ll=25.873154,-80.170788&spn=0.008138,0.009645&sll=25.874805,-80.170428&sspn=0.002025,0.002411&hnear=10700+Biscayne+Blvd,+Miami,+Florida+33161&t=m&z=17

 

 

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This thing sort of reminds me a little of Icahn and TWA in some respects.  You know, when Icahn thought he was going to be able to turn the airline around.

 

I have brought that analogy up before.

 

Icahn is a great investor, but he did a terrible job running TWA. He couldn't really increase the value of the business, so the only way for him to make money was to screw the other stakeholders: employees, bondholders, federal government, etc. However with the benefit of hindsight we see that it was hopeless (every single legacy airline went bankrupt) so it didn't really matter.

 

The department store business model (and Sears' position in particular) is not that much better than airlines. If the business is dying, Lampert's capital allocation skills aren't going to be enough to save it.

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Sorry I missed that.  I'm still a FNG on this board.  Yep, but one difference is that at least Icahn tried to protect himself by having already levered the thing up and paid himself back, before risking getting in deep with the turnaround.

 

Yeah I'm sure the guys in the business feel alot like the rational ariline operators did back then with Amazon running a massive retail "non-profit" and those guys doing whatever it took to fill more seats, profits be damned.

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http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/01/28/3898445/miami-shores-wants-to-annex-kmart.html

The area contains no homes, but the village would need the approval of a majority of the four affected property owners — Kmart, Chase Bank, and the landowners of a vacant plot behind the bank and of the land occupied by Busy Bee Car Wash.

 

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=10700+Biscayne+Blvd,+North+Miami,+FL+33161&hl=en&ll=25.873154,-80.170788&spn=0.008138,0.009645&sll=25.874805,-80.170428&sspn=0.002025,0.002411&hnear=10700+Biscayne+Blvd,+Miami,+Florida+33161&t=m&z=17

 

looks fancy and close to the water, but in the end it's only assessed at $6.9MM. In 2007, it was $8.9MM. A nice data point and a great example of a store that has positive value and is probably very easy to sell or redevelop. But, nothing to get too excited about. The property records show that KMart [urchased the vacant lot the article mentions in 2000 for about  $500K. Also, doesn't look like the best part of Miami, but I'm not an expert on that.

 

http://gisweb.miamidade.gov/PropertySearch/

 

https://www.miamidade.county-taxes.com/public/real_estate/parcels/3022320110410

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Does anyone have the Baker Street report titled "The Hard Asset Side of Sears". In their widely distributed SHLD report they mention this separate report, which has the real estate valuation work on some 100 properties. Can't seem to find it anywhere on google

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Does anyone have the Baker Street report titled "The Hard Asset Side of Sears". In their widely distributed SHLD report they mention this separate report, which has the real estate valuation work on some 100 properties. Can't seem to find it anywhere on google

 

I don't believe it has ever been released or seen by anyone I've spoken with.  FWIW the report was apparently prepared by Green Street, who is a reputable firm.

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Oh boy... Lands End now selling its own line of lotions...

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lands-end-unveils-coastal-living-185800230.html

 

I really don't understand why they opt to use R&D dollars for something like this, instead of opening more free-standing stores (a la J Crew) to actually try and increase their customer base.

 

Do those lotions have much higher margins than clothes?

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Oh boy... Lands End now selling its own line of lotions...

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lands-end-unveils-coastal-living-185800230.html

 

I really don't understand why they opt to use R&D dollars for something like this, instead of opening more free-standing stores (a la J Crew) to actually try and increase their customer base.

 

Do those lotions have much higher margins than clothes?

 

They very well could at the retail price points they are showing ($2-$4 per ounce) but I doubt they'll get full price (will be interesting to see how long it takes before they start discounting them) and the shpping charges would be insane on small dollar items unless you add clothes to the order. And even if they do sell well (I can't imagine they will) and the skincare line makes up 1% of company revenue, it's not enough to move the margin needle anyway. It just seems like new categories are what you move into when you have a hot brand that is selling well, not one that has been stagnant for a decade or more.

 

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They very well could at the retail price points they are showing ($2-$4 per ounce) but I doubt they'll get full price (will be interesting to see how long it takes before they start discounting them) and the shpping charges would be insane on small dollar items unless you add clothes to the order.

 

Maybe that's the key -- using these small skin products as a filler for free-shipping and improve their margin overall.  When my wife does her online shopping, she often need a few "fillers" of small dollar items to add to the total line in order to qualify for free-shipping.

 

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These two projects seem to have some interesting similarities in terms of strategy...

 

January 8th, Hialeah:

 

Another user who prefers to keep a low profile just sent me this...

 

Cuhaci Peterson Architects awarded contract on redevelopment project in Hialeah

http://www.international.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=27180:cuhaci-peterson-architects-awarded-contract-on-redevelopment-project-in-hialeah&catid=309:pitchengine&Itemid=446

 

 

So they eliminate a KMart, install a relatively smaller Sears store, and presumably lease 18,000 sqft of space to a grocery store.

 

I guess somewhere else nearby they will close down a Sears store and sell the underlying real estate.

 

Taken together, they

1)  monetize the Sears real estate

2)  push the Sears inventory into a smaller 80,000 sqft footprint (presumably an attractive, renovated store)

3)  Make better use of the very cheap long term lease rates of their KMart property

 

 

January 23rd, Foothills Mall:

 

 

Also.. something a bit interesting..

 

A developer that is redeveloping the Foothills mall is buying Sears' owned store 66,000 Sq ft (Apparently it was quite a battle to get Sears out -- they wanted Sears out since it's an upscale store).  They are paying Sears for the property + they are building Sears another smaller property ($815K) in another location (they'll lease the land to Sears -- Sears will own the building.  What's interesting is the size of the new store 10K sq ft. Interesting!! 10,000 Sq Ft Sears store (not SHOS).

 

http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20140123/BUSINESS/301230103/Sears-tight-lipped-about-new-Foothills-store

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