adesigar Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sears Patent Applications http://www.faqs.org/patents/assignee/sears-brands-llc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just to give some perspective on the absurdly cheap price of $35 that investors today are asked to pay. In any case, I can get to $33.79 in equity value without touching the real estate. (1) Land's End - $5.66 per share assuming he loads it with 2.5x EBITDA of debt (2) Sears Canada - $6.44 per share using the market quote (3) Sears Auto Center - $4.71 per share based on $2 billion of revenue (4) Kenmore, Craftsman, Diehard - $16.98 per share based on $1.8 billion asset-backed securitization Each of the four above probably has upside to my estimate (except possibly Sears Auto). My guess is that, based on tax assessed values, Seritage is worth around $6 per share (though I haven't finished my research on the Multi-Tenant properties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mevsemt Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Has anyone seen this video on Tesco in South Korea? It wouldn't surprise me if SHLD is trying to develop similar capabilities with SYW. Also, if they can build something similar and offer the service to other retailers who share space with them (Whole Foods, Trader Joes, etc.) it could really be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20ppy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The company is the nation's largest provider of home services, with more than 15 million service and installation calls made annually. Though no money figure has been provided, this is worth something meaningfully. It has to be in the billons in revenue. Just to give some perspective on the absurdly cheap price of $35 that investors today are asked to pay. In any case, I can get to $33.79 in equity value without touching the real estate. (1) Land's End - $5.66 per share assuming he loads it with 2.5x EBITDA of debt (2) Sears Canada - $6.44 per share using the market quote (3) Sears Auto Center - $4.71 per share based on $2 billion of revenue (4) Kenmore, Craftsman, Diehard - $16.98 per share based on $1.8 billion asset-backed securitization Each of the four above probably has upside to my estimate (except possibly Sears Auto). My guess is that, based on tax assessed values, Seritage is worth around $6 per share (though I haven't finished my research on the Multi-Tenant properties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Another blog post today on SHCSpeaks... The Role of Technology in our Transformation http://blog.searsholdings.com/leena-munjal/the-role-of-technology-in-our-transformation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I spent the last few days reading this thread from beginning to end I don't get the Wall Street opinion on SHLD. For all we know, ESL is going to spin-off/sell off LE and auto centers this year. That's more or less official. LE is worth at least $7.50/share, auto centers $ 5/share. Then, there is this 51 % stake in Sears Canada trading at about $6.50/share. This is $19/share of highly visible value in SHLD. I'm not talking about RE, brands or pension liabilities. How can any "analyst" in his right mind state a SHLD price target of $20? What did this CS "analyst" "analyze"? Please help me out. Sell side analysts are not going to base their target prices on a "sum-of-the-parts" or "liquidation" valuation model. Instead, they are going to value the company as it is currently structured and operating. If you do that then the retail losses factor into the target price in a major way and given that 99% of the company's current revenue is retail, the numbers will be skewed towards the state of the retail operations and it will be treated as a retail company. Many on this thread are (correctly in my view) using a sum of the parts analysis to determine their margin of safety over a 5-10 year period to quantify risk of permanent loss of capital during their intended holding period, as opposed to where they think the stock should trade today or will trade next month. While I agree with that method for such a purpose, I think it is unrealistic to think that Wall Street will price SHLD as a break-up story unless it actually becomes a real break-up story. Some may argue it already has, but I think that is very much debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just FYI for those following the SHLD thread but may be unaware of the SHLD Store Closures thread... 46 closures so far in 2014: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/shld-store-closures/40/ krazeenyc is doing a great job keeping that thread updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This weekend I was at the Sears located in the Maine Mall in South Portland, Maine. I was more than pleasantly surprised at the condition of this store. The general feel of the store was certainly not Apple, Coach or J Crew, but it was nowhere near the condition the Brian Sozzi pictures portray. The Lands End section, while yes out of place in Sears, was very neat and organized; the Craftsman, Appliances and Diehard sections were quite impressive for an imploding retailer; while the clothes were nothing to write home about, they certainly were not disorganized to the point of un-shoppable (yes I know that's not a word); and lastly, I was stunned at the number of shoppers - I was expecting crickets. I did not expect Sears to own this location, as the mall is run by GGP, but turns out they do. Square Feet: 87.8K Assessed Value: $13.08MM - $149/SF The building is valued at $70K, and appears to be 99% depreciated. Supposedly the replacement cost is $7MM. I thought tax assessments are performed based on a relatively updated appraised value, which should take the replacement cost calculation into account. Perhaps not. After updating the appraisal for the difference between the building's replacement cost and assessed value, the valuation rises to $20.1MM, or $229/SF. I would be surprised, actually shocked, if the Maine Mall is considered one of GGP's "A-quality" malls. But given it's the only significant mall in Maine, perhaps the valuation of this particular Sears property is A-quality. Either way - a low-end valuation of $149/SF for a Sears property in a state ranked high in transfer payment status and low in business friendliness isn't too shabby. $150 x 68MM SF / 107 shares out = $95.33 per share. I should put this formula in my signature 8) EDIT: Link didn't work so I attached the valuation sheet. Sears_Maine_Mall_Maine_Property.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Given the length of this thread and the various related threads I thought I would come up with some shorthand so that people can save time in the future with their Sears posts. Here it is: A = Sears good B = Sears bad C = Real estate valuable D = Real estate not valuable E = Eddie is a genius F = Eddie is a hack G = Eddie has a secret plan for retail H = Eddie doesn't know his head from his ass as it relates to retail I = Eddie is dreamy J = Eddie is not dreamy K = Sears will go bankrupt L = Sears is going to the moon M = can someone explain the guarantor/non-guarantor structure? I don't think it's ever been discussed before even though I've asked several times. So for example, someone might simply say A/E/G/L which might be shorthand for Sears is a very good company. Eddie is a genius who has a secret plan even if we don't know what it is. Therefore, the stock is going to the moon. Someone else might say B/F/H/K which could mean Sears is an awful company. Eddie is a hack who doesn't know his head from his ass when it comes to retail or anything else for that matter. I think Sears will soon go bankrupt. Feel free to add to the definitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sears filing shows Fairholme just bought more stock. I'm on a mobile device, so don't have exact numbers, but it looks like they bought around 2 million shares. Now own about 22.5 million shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 23.5 million shares. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414000659/d1450713_13g-a.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 23.5 million shares. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414000659/d1450713_13g-a.htm nice :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sears filing shows Fairholme just bought more stock. I'm on a mobile device, so don't have exact numbers, but it looks like they bought around 2 million shares. Now own about 22.5 million shares. 23.5 million shares. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414000659/d1450713_13g-a.htm They bought 2,684,900 shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Given the length of this thread and the various related threads I thought I would come up with some shorthand so that people can save time in the future with their Sears posts. Here it is: A = Sears good B = Sears bad C = Real estate valuable D = Real estate not valuable E = Eddie is a genius F = Eddie is a hack G = Eddie has a secret plan for retail H = Eddie doesn't know his head from his ass as it relates to retail I = Eddie is dreamy J = Eddie is not dreamy K = Sears will go bankrupt L = Sears is going to the moon M = can someone explain the guarantor/non-guarantor structure? I don't think it's ever been discussed before even though I've asked several times. So for example, someone might simply say A/E/G/L which might be shorthand for Sears is a very good company. Eddie is a genius who has a secret plan even if we don't know what it is. Therefore, the stock is going to the moon. Someone else might say B/F/H/K which could mean Sears is an awful company. Eddie is a hack who doesn't know his head from his ass when it comes to retail or anything else for that matter. I think Sears will soon go bankrupt. Feel free to add to the definitions. S - for "Has anybody checked recent short interest?.". ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Given the length of this thread and the various related threads I thought I would come up with some shorthand so that people can save time in the future with their Sears posts. Here it is: A = Sears good B = Sears bad C = Real estate valuable D = Real estate not valuable E = Eddie is a genius F = Eddie is a hack G = Eddie has a secret plan for retail H = Eddie doesn't know his head from his ass as it relates to retail I = Eddie is dreamy J = Eddie is not dreamy K = Sears will go bankrupt L = Sears is going to the moon M = can someone explain the guarantor/non-guarantor structure? I don't think it's ever been discussed before even though I've asked several times. So for example, someone might simply say A/E/G/L which might be shorthand for Sears is a very good company. Eddie is a genius who has a secret plan even if we don't know what it is. Therefore, the stock is going to the moon. Someone else might say B/F/H/K which could mean Sears is an awful company. Eddie is a hack who doesn't know his head from his ass when it comes to retail or anything else for that matter. I think Sears will soon go bankrupt. Feel free to add to the definitions. I nearly just fell out of my chair laughing at this post :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Given the length of this thread and the various related threads I thought I would come up with some shorthand so that people can save time in the future with their Sears posts. Here it is: A = Sears good B = Sears bad C = Real estate valuable D = Real estate not valuable E = Eddie is a genius F = Eddie is a hack G = Eddie has a secret plan for retail H = Eddie doesn't know his head from his ass as it relates to retail I = Eddie is dreamy J = Eddie is not dreamy K = Sears will go bankrupt L = Sears is going to the moon M = can someone explain the guarantor/non-guarantor structure? I don't think it's ever been discussed before even though I've asked several times. So for example, someone might simply say A/E/G/L which might be shorthand for Sears is a very good company. Eddie is a genius who has a secret plan even if we don't know what it is. Therefore, the stock is going to the moon. Someone else might say B/F/H/K which could mean Sears is an awful company. Eddie is a hack who doesn't know his head from his ass when it comes to retail or anything else for that matter. I think Sears will soon go bankrupt. Feel free to add to the definitions. S - for "Has anybody checked recent short interest?.". ;D T - There will be a short squeeze. U - SYW is the future V - SYW is burning Sears Assets W - Pension plan X - Spinoffs Y - Store Closings Z - GoTo A: My Favorite part was M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 23.5 million shares. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414000659/d1450713_13g-a.htm Maybe I misread but I saw 24.2 Million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 23.5 million shares. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414000659/d1450713_13g-a.htm Maybe I misread but I saw 24.2 Million " 9. AGGREGATE AMOUNT BENEFICIALLY OWNED BY EACH REPORTING PERSON 24,226,073" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 23.5 million shares. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414000659/d1450713_13g-a.htm nice :) BB certainly put his money where his mouth is. Now let's see how ESL and Eddie do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobp Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Curbside Convenience: Sears® Introduces In-Vehicle Pickup, Powered by Shop Your Way™ Mobile App Perfect for those who don't want to be seen shopping at Sears. Or, you could pick up a Sears fake mustache at the drive through and wear it into the store. C/F/G/H and N -Stop explaining guarantor/non guarantor as I don't understand it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What about all the liabilities? Just to give some perspective on the absurdly cheap price of $35 that investors today are asked to pay. In any case, I can get to $33.79 in equity value without touching the real estate. (1) Land's End - $5.66 per share assuming he loads it with 2.5x EBITDA of debt (2) Sears Canada - $6.44 per share using the market quote (3) Sears Auto Center - $4.71 per share based on $2 billion of revenue (4) Kenmore, Craftsman, Diehard - $16.98 per share based on $1.8 billion asset-backed securitization Each of the four above probably has upside to my estimate (except possibly Sears Auto). My guess is that, based on tax assessed values, Seritage is worth around $6 per share (though I haven't finished my research on the Multi-Tenant properties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What about all the liabilities? Just to give some perspective on the absurdly cheap price of $35 that investors today are asked to pay. In any case, I can get to $33.79 in equity value without touching the real estate. (1) Land's End - $5.66 per share assuming he loads it with 2.5x EBITDA of debt (2) Sears Canada - $6.44 per share using the market quote (3) Sears Auto Center - $4.71 per share based on $2 billion of revenue (4) Kenmore, Craftsman, Diehard - $16.98 per share based on $1.8 billion asset-backed securitization Each of the four above probably has upside to my estimate (except possibly Sears Auto). My guess is that, based on tax assessed values, Seritage is worth around $6 per share (though I haven't finished my research on the Multi-Tenant properties). Oh, well you can just ignore those. Why? I need not even explain... this is where the shorthand comes in nicely: "E" :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 What about all the liabilities? Just to give some perspective on the absurdly cheap price of $35 that investors today are asked to pay. In any case, I can get to $33.79 in equity value without touching the real estate. (1) Land's End - $5.66 per share assuming he loads it with 2.5x EBITDA of debt (2) Sears Canada - $6.44 per share using the market quote (3) Sears Auto Center - $4.71 per share based on $2 billion of revenue (4) Kenmore, Craftsman, Diehard - $16.98 per share based on $1.8 billion asset-backed securitization Each of the four above probably has upside to my estimate (except possibly Sears Auto). My guess is that, based on tax assessed values, Seritage is worth around $6 per share (though I haven't finished my research on the Multi-Tenant properties). Oh, well you can just ignore those. Why? I need not even explain... this is where the shorthand comes in nicely: "E" :) His 33 dollars values come "without touching the real estate." - so now if you believe RE > liabilities then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What about all the liabilities? Just to give some perspective on the absurdly cheap price of $35 that investors today are asked to pay. In any case, I can get to $33.79 in equity value without touching the real estate. (1) Land's End - $5.66 per share assuming he loads it with 2.5x EBITDA of debt (2) Sears Canada - $6.44 per share using the market quote (3) Sears Auto Center - $4.71 per share based on $2 billion of revenue (4) Kenmore, Craftsman, Diehard - $16.98 per share based on $1.8 billion asset-backed securitization Each of the four above probably has upside to my estimate (except possibly Sears Auto). My guess is that, based on tax assessed values, Seritage is worth around $6 per share (though I haven't finished my research on the Multi-Tenant properties). Oh, well you can just ignore those. Why? I need not even explain... this is where the shorthand comes in nicely: "E" :) Wrong the answer is M. Guarantor/Non Guarantor subsidiaries means those units are free from liabilities. Youre right the shorthand is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Given the length of this thread and the various related threads I thought I would come up with some shorthand so that people can save time in the future with their Sears posts. Here it is: A = Sears good B = Sears bad C = Real estate valuable D = Real estate not valuable E = Eddie is a genius F = Eddie is a hack G = Eddie has a secret plan for retail H = Eddie doesn't know his head from his ass as it relates to retail I = Eddie is dreamy J = Eddie is not dreamy K = Sears will go bankrupt L = Sears is going to the moon M = can someone explain the guarantor/non-guarantor structure? I don't think it's ever been discussed before even though I've asked several times. So for example, someone might simply say A/E/G/L which might be shorthand for Sears is a very good company. Eddie is a genius who has a secret plan even if we don't know what it is. Therefore, the stock is going to the moon. Someone else might say B/F/H/K which could mean Sears is an awful company. Eddie is a hack who doesn't know his head from his ass when it comes to retail or anything else for that matter. I think Sears will soon go bankrupt. Feel free to add to the definitions. Frickin' hilarious - this is what this thread needs! Oh, and I vote for "M" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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