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SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp


alertmeipp

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The CBOE 'board/committee' finds a value for the dividend.  If they distribute $7.00 a share via special dividend, then option strikes are reduced by $7.00.

 

For the spin-off, if one share of SHLD is allocated one share of 'new Lands' End', then all options now are contracts that include 100 shares of Lands' End and 100 shares of SHLD. 

 

Overall, I've found the system to be very fair. 

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Does anyone know how large a potential return of capital, or spin-off, has to be for options' strike prices to get adjusted downwards? Specifically curious if you own the SHLD LEAPS expiring in Jan 2016, how do you know what will happens to the strike price after the spin offs? Would love to hear from anyone who owned the SHLD LEAPS before the SHOS and Orchard Supplies spin offs

 

I did not own options for prior SHLD spin-offs, but I don't believe there is a minimum threshold. Any special dividend or spin-off should be adjusted accordingly. I know from holding shares of DO and selling leaps against them in the past that their 75-cent quarterly special dividends are treated that way, so that is obviously a very small adjustment.

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At this point, Baker Street & Force Capital can lay claim on 15.26 million shares through calls and have 2.5 million shares outright... interesting.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArX667iB-WCRdFZRMEl4T29EQnRmUTZueE1XY09nSWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html

 

Add 579,427 to Murray Stahl/Horizon (up from 3,541,185 to 4,120,612)  based on today's filing:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1519418/000151941814000012/xslForm13F_X01/form13fhr-infoTable.xml

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At this point, Baker Street & Force Capital can lay claim on 15.26 million shares through calls and have 2.5 million shares outright... interesting.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArX667iB-WCRdFZRMEl4T29EQnRmUTZueE1XY09nSWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html

 

Add 579,427 to Murray Stahl/Horizon (up from 3,541,185 to 4,120,612)  based on today's filing:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1519418/000151941814000012/xslForm13F_X01/form13fhr-infoTable.xml

 

Now, the decision is when to sell...

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The purchase price represents a multiple of approximately 1x 2013E revenue and 9.5x 2013E Adjusted EBITDA, including $25 million of potential pro forma synergies.

http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2014/02/14/610446/10068459/en/Jos-A-Bank-Clothiers-to-Acquire-Leading-Lifestyle-Brand-Eddie-Bauer.html

 

Based on LE FY2012 EBITDA of $107.6 m and sales of $1.58 bn that would value LE at $1-1.5 bn in EV.

 

That would be $4.70-9.40 per share assuming a $500 m dividend to SHLD.

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Eddie should have called JOSB and offered them LE instead at a slight discount to this price, since they are very similar brands. Eddie Bauer has EBITDA of $62M so the EV/EBITDA multiple is actually 13.3x (the lower 9.5x figure is after synergies). LE will likely trade at half this valuation post-spin. Glad I'm not a JOSB shareholder...

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I would not say that Eddie Bauer and Lands End are really comparable brands. I think Eddie Bauer's clothes are perceived as being higher quality than Lands End. I know there's not a good way to quantify this, and I'm not a fashion expert, but I think the value of the EB brand is quite a bit higher than Lands End.

 

 

I buy a decent amount of clothes from EB. They make a lot of great products. I can't say I've ever found anything worth buying in LE.

 

 

That said, I think LE could be more valuable on it's own than being part of of Sears. In my view, being part of Sears hurts the brand. I know LE has retail stores, but I view their clothes more as one of many crappy brands of clothes they sell at Sears.

 

 

I've said this repeatedly, but I don't understand why Sears needs to be in the clothing and apparel business at all. I'd much rather see them focus on hardware & appliances (I'm on the fence about them continuing to sell electronics, as they can't compete with companies like Amazon and Best Buy in this area).

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I would not say that Eddie Bauer and Lands End are really comparable brands. I think Eddie Bauer's clothes are perceived as being higher quality than Lands End. I know there's not a good way to quantify this, and I'm not a fashion expert, but I think the value of the EB brand is quite a bit higher than Lands End.

 

I buy a decent amount of clothes from EB. They make a lot of great products. I can't say I've ever found anything worth buying in LE.

I can't really speak to the quality comparison. I guess I just think they are very close in terms of both target demographic and price point. Regardless, from a stock market valuation perspective I think most mid-range apparel companies trade similarly, so the differences might be more evident to shoppers, as opposed to investors. The group trades around 6x EV/EBITDA so I am guessing that is about where LE will trade.

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I would not say that Eddie Bauer and Lands End are really comparable brands. I think Eddie Bauer's clothes are perceived as being higher quality than Lands End. I know there's not a good way to quantify this, and I'm not a fashion expert, but I think the value of the EB brand is quite a bit higher than Lands End.

 

I buy a decent amount of clothes from EB. They make a lot of great products. I can't say I've ever found anything worth buying in LE.

I can't really speak to the quality comparison. I guess I just think they are very close in terms of both target demographic and price point. Regardless, from a stock market valuation perspective I think most mid-range apparel companies trade similarly, so the differences might be more evident to shoppers, as opposed to investors. The group trades around 6x EV/EBITDA so I am guessing that is about where LE will trade.

 

I agree with DCG, it seems like Eddie Bauer skews a bit younger, wealthier, more male and more urban.

 

But fashionability is only relevant as far as it translates into financial performance. EB is unprofitable and has been through 2 bankruptcies in the past 10 years. LE is consistently profitable (although declining).

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I'd rather own LE than EB.  Better brand in my opinion.  I'm not saying higher quality, just that I believe LE is a more stable brand.  Better moat per se.

 

Also, the EB multiples are for a buyout.  Lands' End is unlikely to trade at those multiples.  But, hopefully the market proves me wrong.

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Baker street upto 9 million shares or 8.5%

 

BSC LP

 

  (a) Amount beneficially owned:

 

 

  9,000,000 Shares*

 

 

  (b) Percent of class:

 

 

  8.5% (based upon 106,451,439 Shares outstanding, which is the total number of Shares outstanding as of November 15, 2013 as reported in the Issuer’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 21, 2013).

 

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Short (as of 1/31/2013): 15.298M

Lampert/Berkowitz/Tisch: 79.597M

Outstanding: 106.451M

Float: 26.854M

Others: Horizon/Chou/OldWest/BakerSt/Force/GoodHaven/Fine = ~9.886M

 

Just food for thought, if you exclude those 9.886M from the float there are only 1.67M shares available for trading (obviously assumes none are being lent by any of the holders, which is not a conservative assumption at all).

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So how does this all get reported into the 9MM number? Is the 9MM net of the puts or something? Seems hard to believe Baker would have reduced...

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I'm looking at the Baker Street Capital Management, LLC 13F filings:

 

From the last 13-F filed 2013-11

SEARS HLDGS CORP(Shares) $89,235M  Number: 1,500,000

SEARS HLDGS CORP(Calls) $416,430M Number: 7,000,000

 

From today's filings:

SEARS HLDGS CORP(shares) $125,052M  Number: 2,550,000

SEARS HLDGS CORP(calls) $495,569M  Number:10,105,400

SEARS HLDGS CORP(puts) $127,852M Number: 2,607,100

 

Looks like they added to their calls & shares but also bought some put protection. So the 9M number is net of the puts.

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How I understand it is:

 

13-F = Position as of the end of previous Quarter.  In this case, it's the fund's position as of 12/31/13.

 

13-G = Position as of a few days ago for a significant holder (greater than 5%?). 

 

In the case of Fairholme, the filings below imply that Fairholme bought shares in January of 2014.

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414001790/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414000659/d1450713_13g-a.htm

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