gary17 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'll start by saying sorry I haven't read all the posts in this thread. I am not in this, but I just thought I offer two thoughts: 1. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/middle-class-retailers-dying-a-slow-death-don-pittis-1.2535685 2. I believe in the future we are going to be looking at smaller retail stores - big box stores will go extinct. If this is the trend, it could affect how they get rid of their real estate. I've seen valuation of about $150/sf applied to their space - but if the space were to be downsized, I think one needs to take into account of how the building code works. a anchor CRU generally has its own fire exits and therefore you don't need to rely on the mall for exiting (generally). smaller CRUs need to rely on a mall corridor that is min. 9m wide and 4m high by the entire length of the mall in Canada (possibly similar in the USA); and also a service corridor at the back min 1.1m wide ,2m high if not directly exiting to the exterior. i really haven't done any math on how that affect the $150/sf - but it probably reduces it by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'll start by saying sorry I haven't read all the posts in this thread. I am not in this, but I just thought I offer two thoughts: 1. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/middle-class-retailers-dying-a-slow-death-don-pittis-1.2535685 Even though he no longer works in retail, Era says the people of his generation – ages 25 to 35 – are desperate for status and living on debt, and do not want to identify as "Sears people." "It's either you want to live above and beyond your means, or you really absolutely cannot and so you really have to shop at stores like Wal-Mart," says Era. So age group 25 to 35 == middle class? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Check out this stupid documentary by a retail "expert" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 ESL & BB won't sell LE for less than $1.00 (intrinsic value). In a spinoff, it's not likely for the company to trade above $1.00. In a bankruptcy, it's not likely for the company to trade above $1.00 either. No downside to waiting. Possible upside to waiting. (Heck, given the spin-off dynamics, why not nibble a bit at the spin and decrease your weighted cost basis?) That's how I see it, too. By the way: JOSB shareholders don't seem to like the price they are going to pay for Eddie Bauer: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eminence-capital-sends-letter-to-board-of-jos-a-bank-clothiers-inc-2014-02-18 Get the popcorn ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20ppy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 DE Shaw is a New York-based $30 billion-plus quantitative hedge fund founded in 1988 by David E. Shaw, a former Columbia faculty member. The firm’s new positions in its ~$73 billion portfolio in 4Q 2013 among other stocks include SHLD of 984,858 shares. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shaw-opens-positions-4q-2013-033345412.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Ancient art---Teton---Quincy Lee also reported a 2% holding as of last quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 TOBAM increases stake by 101,000 shares or 21%: Q3 2013 (475,308 shares): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527488/000152748813000005/xslForm13F_X01/tobam-Sep-2013-13F.xml Q4 2013 (576,458 shares): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527488/000152748814000001/xslForm13F_X01/tobam-Dec-2013-13F.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 TOBAM increases stake by 101,000 shares or 21%: Q3 2013 (475,308 shares): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527488/000152748813000005/xslForm13F_X01/tobam-Sep-2013-13F.xml Q4 2013 (576,458 shares): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527488/000152748814000001/xslForm13F_X01/tobam-Dec-2013-13F.xml so all lot of funds which bought more Shares or intiated a new Position. great. more Shares get out of the float. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 DE Shaw is a New York-based $30 billion-plus quantitative hedge fund founded in 1988 by David E. Shaw, a former Columbia faculty member. The firm’s new positions in its ~$73 billion portfolio in 4Q 2013 among other stocks include SHLD of 984,858 shares. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shaw-opens-positions-4q-2013-033345412.html Shaw owns pretty much every stock in existence (mathematical/algo guy), but it is nice that a multi-billionaire has decided to add common stock on top of the calls he already owned. Q3: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1009207/000114420413061989/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml Q4: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1009207/000114420414009922/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Daily trading update on SHLD v. JCP... just for Kraven. They are both down virtually in sympathy :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The Teton Capital investment is more interesting to me than the other guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 merkhet why is that? The Teton Capital investment is more interesting to me than the other guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 (A) Teton is good at what they do. (B) Teton has a real person making decisions versus D.E. Shaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Daily trading update on SHLD v. JCP... just for Kraven. They are both down virtually in sympathy :) Thank you, sir, for thinking of me. However, everyone knows that SHLD trades off of the sales of power tools and lingerie in Bangladesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Hahahhaha how silly of me. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 (A) Teton is good at what they do. (B) Teton has a real person making decisions versus D.E. Shaw. C) Teton is based in Austin, TX. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Lands' End "Master Lease Agreement" with SHLD: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799288/000119312514055256/0001193125-14-055256-index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I wasn't aware the area surrounding the Middletown, PA Kmart was a potential redevelopment. Article posted last night: http://www.buckscountycouriertimes.com/news/communities/levittown/middletown-residents-voice-displeasure-with-new-development/article_f309b4d6-d73d-5c67-bfce-5fad4d799220.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 http://www.nasdaq.com/article/sears-holdings-larger-than-sampp-500-component-apartment-investment-amp-management-cm328021 I thought this was an interesting article, with the recent price increase SHLD now has a larger market cap than the smallest S&P 500 component. Any thoughts on the potential for them getting re-added to the index? When they were removed in 2012 this article http://www.nasdaq.com/article/sears-holdings-larger-than-sampp-500-component-apartment-investment-amp-management-cm328021 indicated it was due to a lack of public float as ESL and Lampert owned well over the 50% threshhold. IIRC ESL/Lampert are now under 50%, and the stock is at a price level where it could be re-added to the index. As far as I can tell the company meets all the other liquidity/volume requirements easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 http://www.nasdaq.com/article/sears-holdings-larger-than-sampp-500-component-apartment-investment-amp-management-cm328021 I thought this was an interesting article, with the recent price increase SHLD now has a larger market cap than the smallest S&P 500 component. Any thoughts on the potential for them getting re-added to the index? When they were removed in 2012 this article http://www.nasdaq.com/article/sears-holdings-larger-than-sampp-500-component-apartment-investment-amp-management-cm328021 indicated it was due to a lack of public float as ESL and Lampert owned well over the 50% threshhold. IIRC ESL/Lampert are now under 50%, and the stock is at a price level where it could be re-added to the index. As far as I can tell the company meets all the other liquidity/volume requirements easily. That's probably just a computer generated article with minimal human input. The combination of the low float, market cap and financial condition (indexes have a bias towards investment grade companies) makes it unlikely that S&P will put SHLD back in any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 For sure, I wasn't suggesting it was likely imminent. I was more interested in hearing what people think the pre-conditions would be for index inclusion. Would $1BB of debt pay-off from LE/RE sale do it? 6 months or a year of the shares at $50 plus? I think it meets all the requirements, but the float and market cap ones only barely. Since the index is compiled by humans who don't want to look bad, it won't make it in on marginal numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I don't think it will be added back to the S&P until (this is a big 'if') SHLD trades much higher in price. At that point ESL might reduce their stake, or other shareholders (Berkowitz, etc.) might reduce their stake enough for the free float to increase. Also, mutual funds will likely jump on the bandwagon in buying shares (at a price much higher than today -- I believe you can look at AZO for an example of how this works). With the new 'acceptance' of SHLD as an investment by the investment industry the S&P will then feel inclined to add it back to the index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Berkowitz runs a big mutual fund, would his shares really be counted by S&P as not part of the free float? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm not sure. He's a greater than 20% holder, so they might consider him an insider. I'm not a specialist in this area...just adding my thoughts (which are probably worth what you're paying for them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 K-Mart Of Salisbury Notifies Its Employees That It Is Going To Start Trimming Hours To 30 Per Week http://sbynews.blogspot.com/2014/02/k-mart-of-salisbury-notifies-its.html "This morning Kmart of Salisbury informed its employee staff that it was going to start trimming its weekly employees hours from 40 hours per week to 30 hours per week. Could it be that this is the first local big box retailer's response - to initiate personnel changes in preparation for ObamaCare?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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