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SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp


alertmeipp

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I'll start by saying sorry I haven't read all the posts in this thread.  I am not in this, but I just thought I offer two thoughts:

 

1.  http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/middle-class-retailers-dying-a-slow-death-don-pittis-1.2535685

 

2.  I believe in the future we are going to be looking at smaller retail stores - big box stores will go extinct.  If this is the trend, it could affect how they get rid of their real estate.  I've seen valuation of about $150/sf applied to their space - but if the space were to be downsized, I think one needs to take into account of how the building code works.

 

a anchor CRU generally has its own fire exits and therefore you don't need to rely on the mall for exiting (generally).

 

smaller CRUs need to rely on a mall corridor that is min. 9m wide and 4m high by the entire length of the mall in Canada (possibly similar in the USA); and also a service corridor at the back min 1.1m wide ,2m high if not directly exiting to the exterior. i really haven't done any math on how that affect the $150/sf - but it probably reduces it by a bit.

 

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I'll start by saying sorry I haven't read all the posts in this thread.  I am not in this, but I just thought I offer two thoughts:

 

1.  http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/middle-class-retailers-dying-a-slow-death-don-pittis-1.2535685

 

Even though he no longer works in retail, Era says the people of his generation – ages 25 to 35 – are desperate for status and living on debt, and do not want to identify as "Sears people."

 

"It's either you want to live above and beyond your means, or you really absolutely cannot and so you really have to shop at stores like Wal-Mart," says Era.

 

So age group 25 to 35 == middle class?

 

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ESL & BB won't sell LE for less than $1.00 (intrinsic value). In a spinoff, it's not likely for the company to trade above $1.00. In a bankruptcy, it's not likely for the company to trade above $1.00 either.

 

No downside to waiting. Possible upside to waiting. (Heck, given the spin-off dynamics, why not nibble a bit at the spin and decrease your weighted cost basis?)

 

That's how I see it, too.

 

By the way: JOSB shareholders don't seem to like the price they are going to pay for Eddie Bauer:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eminence-capital-sends-letter-to-board-of-jos-a-bank-clothiers-inc-2014-02-18

Get the popcorn ready!

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so all lot of funds which bought more Shares or intiated a new Position. great. more Shares get out of the float.

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DE Shaw is a New York-based $30 billion-plus quantitative hedge fund founded in 1988 by David E. Shaw, a former Columbia faculty member.

 

The firm’s new positions in its ~$73 billion portfolio in 4Q 2013 among other stocks include SHLD of 984,858 shares.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shaw-opens-positions-4q-2013-033345412.html

 

Shaw owns pretty much every stock in existence (mathematical/algo guy), but it is nice that a multi-billionaire has decided to add common stock on top of the calls he already owned.

Q3: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1009207/000114420413061989/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml

Q4: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1009207/000114420414009922/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml

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http://www.nasdaq.com/article/sears-holdings-larger-than-sampp-500-component-apartment-investment-amp-management-cm328021

 

I thought this was an interesting article, with the recent price increase SHLD now has a larger market cap than the smallest S&P 500 component. Any thoughts on the potential for them getting re-added to the index? When they were removed in 2012 this article http://www.nasdaq.com/article/sears-holdings-larger-than-sampp-500-component-apartment-investment-amp-management-cm328021 indicated it was due to a lack of public float as ESL and Lampert owned well over the 50% threshhold. IIRC ESL/Lampert are now under 50%, and the stock is at a price level where it could be re-added to the index. As far as I can tell the company meets all the other liquidity/volume requirements easily.

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http://www.nasdaq.com/article/sears-holdings-larger-than-sampp-500-component-apartment-investment-amp-management-cm328021

 

I thought this was an interesting article, with the recent price increase SHLD now has a larger market cap than the smallest S&P 500 component. Any thoughts on the potential for them getting re-added to the index? When they were removed in 2012 this article http://www.nasdaq.com/article/sears-holdings-larger-than-sampp-500-component-apartment-investment-amp-management-cm328021 indicated it was due to a lack of public float as ESL and Lampert owned well over the 50% threshhold. IIRC ESL/Lampert are now under 50%, and the stock is at a price level where it could be re-added to the index. As far as I can tell the company meets all the other liquidity/volume requirements easily.

 

That's probably just a computer generated article with minimal human input.

 

The combination of the low float, market cap and financial condition (indexes have a bias towards investment grade companies) makes it unlikely that S&P will put SHLD back in any time soon.

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For sure, I wasn't suggesting it was likely imminent. I was more interested in hearing what people think the pre-conditions would be for index inclusion. Would $1BB of debt pay-off from LE/RE sale do it? 6 months or a year of the shares at $50 plus?

 

I think it meets all the requirements, but the float and market cap ones only barely. Since the index is compiled by humans who don't want to look bad, it won't make it in on marginal numbers.

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I don't think it will be added back to the S&P until (this is a big 'if') SHLD trades much higher in price.  At that point ESL might reduce their stake, or other shareholders (Berkowitz, etc.) might reduce their stake enough for the free float to increase.  Also, mutual funds will likely jump on the bandwagon in buying shares (at a price much higher than today -- I believe you can look at AZO for an example of how this works).  With the new 'acceptance' of SHLD as an investment by the investment industry the S&P will then feel inclined to add it back to the index. 

 

 

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K-Mart Of Salisbury Notifies Its Employees That It Is Going To Start Trimming Hours To 30 Per Week

http://sbynews.blogspot.com/2014/02/k-mart-of-salisbury-notifies-its.html

 

"This morning Kmart of Salisbury informed its employee staff that it was going to start trimming its weekly employees hours from 40 hours per week to 30 hours per week.  Could it be that this is the first local big box retailer's response - to initiate personnel changes in preparation for ObamaCare?"

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