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SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp


alertmeipp

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Anyone who puts any hope into this company being anything more than a liquidation and a real estate play is delusional... In my opinion.

 

Fcharlie, you used to be a long time bull of this company and Eddie. What has changed your mind? Was it just anecdotes like this?

 

I still am!

 

I've owned SHLD for eight years. The first couple of years it was a token position because of Eddie Lampert. I made it a giant position in 2008 when the price collapsed. Those were the glory days. The stock was at $30 and Eddie repurchased millions of shares out of actual free cash flow. The fact that the retail operations are laughable isn't enough of a reason for me to sell. They've been laughable for the entire time I've owned SHLD. Shop Your Way pisses me off though. I'd rather see them winding everything down, buying back stock, and signing up tenants as opposed to dumping endless amounts of cash into SYWR.

 

So, there... I still own SHLD. I most likely won't sell unless Berkowitz or Eddie sell. I, like Berkowitz, don't see how you can lose long term.

 

I laughed when I read your comment. I could have written that comment myself. Exactly my story. Had an odd lot position before 2008 mainly to monitor Eddie Lampert. Dropped to the 30s and high 20s when I built a bigger position. Liked the repurchases. I don't count on Sears Retail and consider it a bonus. Don't like the spending on SYW. Rather see them wind down and buyback and sign tenants. Don't plan to sell unless ESL or BB sell.

 

One difference is I recently added a lot more in the mid 30s recently.

 

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What does Eddie need 1.5B in cash for? Any ideas?

 

Well to cover cash burn for one thing...

 

Whats the likelihood that he actually lets the retail go bankrupt and liquidates? Doesnt seem to be the path he's taking but he may not have much of a choice if these losses continue.

 

It isn't clear to me that he can do that in a way that doesn't wipe out the company's cash and equity.  I think if he could have done that he would have already -- what else is he waiting for?

 

It's clear that he wants to starve the Sears retail businesses of cash and just try to extract as much from them as possible.  Unfortunately they are burning cash and in a competitive tail spin, and there are fixed costs that aren't going to go away.

 

If this were a "Berkshire in the 1960's" situation he would be investing what cash he has in other accretive investments, I think this was the hope of a lot of investors 5-10 years ago.  But that also hasn't happened, and the fact that it hasn't happened suggests to me that it won't -- what else would he be waiting for?

 

So I am not really clear on what the end game is...

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Guest wellmont

Wow. 20% in a week.

 

What does Eddie need 1.5B in cash for? Any ideas? Whats the likelihood that he actually lets the retail go bankrupt and liquidates? Doesnt seem to be the path he's taking but he may not have much of a choice if these losses continue.

 

the cash will soon be something less than $1.5b. it's what happens when more water drains from the tub than goes in it. He needs it to pay interest to pay principal to pay salaries to pay mortgages to pay rent. iow that cash is not discretionary. it's needed to keep the lights on. this is not a healthy company.

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We have a lot of bad observations from this forum member (FTCharlie, TXlaw, and others). Why can't we send these to EL or post it on sears blog to give them a chance to fix them?. I recently bought an appliances (and visited sears store), and had good experience compared to the HD.

 

::)

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https://www.bamsec.com/filing/131006714000009?cik=1310067

 

The most recent 8-K shows pro-forma cash at $1B, since the LE divvy is being used to pay down payables build. He needs cash to fund the transition/death spiral (depending on one's perspective).

 

I am holding fast to my carcass as the lion just ripped off a big piece of meat of which i ate heartily. I hope auto centers, canada and some sort of REMIC LLC bond transaction are just as tasty.

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What does Eddie need 1.5B in cash for? Any ideas? Whats the likelihood that he actually lets the retail go bankrupt and liquidates? Doesnt seem to be the path he's taking but he may not have much of a choice if these losses continue.

 

You are worrying too much. This will all be covered in the upcoming book.

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We have a lot of bad observations from this forum member (FTCharlie, TXlaw, and others). Why can't we send these to EL or post it on sears blog to give them a chance to fix them?. I recently bought an appliances (and visited sears store), and had good experience compared to the HD.

 

::)

 

They should fix these problems.  These are lost opportunities that fly in the face of the PR they are putting out.  I'm all for investing money in a way that creates a sustainable integrated retail biz, however small that biz may be.  Hell, if sales shrink to 25% of current annual sales, and SHLD can make a 3% to 4% net margin on those sales, we're talking about real value to add to the hard asset value that they've got under their belt.

 

Given ESL's focus on big data, social media, behavioral targeting, etc., I would not be surprised if someone at SHLD is paying attention to both consumers' and investors' views.  But will SHLD change its ways and stop giving people at the bottom perverse incentives that could/will result in unsuccessful execution?  I hope so, but ESL needs to realize that this is not about capitalists versus communists (Braithwaite v. PlanMaestro) (edit), true believers versus infidels, longs versus shorts, or the media versus innovators.

 

It's time to suck it up and get someone who knows how to create organizational change in there.  Just my opinion.

 

Still long SHLD.

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We have a lot of bad observations from this forum member (FTCharlie, TXlaw, and others). Why can't we send these to EL or post it on sears blog to give them a chance to fix them?. I recently bought an appliances (and visited sears store), and had good experience compared to the HD.

 

::)

 

If they need us to send feedback to know their operation is not good, they are not good managers and we should not be shareholders.  :)

I felt lucky that I dashed in and out with a profit last year and this year. But I  think it is mostly just luck. I probably won't do it again unless it drops to $20 a share. :P

 

 

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Communist?

 

More than 20 years since anyone called me one. Public heated discussion that was, and a rabid Pinochet supporter was needed for that to happen.

 

But I'll not take it personal, I've met more than a few smart lefties in my life.

 

Haha, my bad!

 

I was remembering this quote from Braithwaite: “Clashes for resources are a product of competition and advocacy, things that were sorely lacking before and are lacking in socialist economies.”  And then his trolling you on your Twitter account for calling out ESL after that Bloomberg article came out. 

 

A rabid supporter of ESL/SHLD, he is (Braithwaite).  But I guess he stopped short of calling you PlanPinko.

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He added the following on his personal blog as an introduction to the SHC Speaks blog...

 

It seems like many companies are spinning off parts of their business in 2014.  Tribune Company, Time Warner, CBS, GE, Simon Property Group, and Darden Restaurants are all examples.

 

Companies reorganize in a variety of ways all the time.  Acquisitions, divestitures, spinoffs, LBOs and recapitalizations are part of the normal evolution in the life of a corporation as circumstances and needs change.

 

I posted some thoughts on the spinoff of Lands’ End on the Sears Holdings blog, SHC Speaks:

 

http://blog.searsholdings.com/eddie-lampert/spinoffs-and-lands-end/

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He added the following on his personal blog as an introduction to the SHC Speaks blog...

 

It seems like many companies are spinning off parts of their business in 2014.  Tribune Company, Time Warner, CBS, GE, Simon Property Group, and Darden Restaurants are all examples.

 

Companies reorganize in a variety of ways all the time.  Acquisitions, divestitures, spinoffs, LBOs and recapitalizations are part of the normal evolution in the life of a corporation as circumstances and needs change.

 

I posted some thoughts on the spinoff of Lands’ End on the Sears Holdings blog, SHC Speaks:

 

http://blog.searsholdings.com/eddie-lampert/spinoffs-and-lands-end/

 

 

Eddie,

 

Thanks for blogging. If you're reading this, none of your posts add to my incremental understanding of the intrinsic value of the businesses. There are some nice teases like when your CFO said, to paraphrase, "I'm not going to comment on the rampant speculation about the real estate value *wink*wink*", but like an unrequited lover, I'm starting to get annoyed. This post about LE doesn't address what the long term margins of the business could be, why revenues have declined, i.e. the issues that matter from a business perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

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