Luke 532 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Berkowitz adds 276,250 shares (from 24,226,073 in Q4 2013 to 24,502,323 in Q1 2014): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957414003448/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml Murray Stahl/Horizon adds 1,037,873 shares. Up from 4,120,612 in Q4 2013 to 5,158,485 in Q1 2014: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1519418/000151941814000014/xslForm13F_X01/form13fhr-infoTable.xml Fine Capital adds 322,278 shares (1,559,075 in Q4 2013 to 1,881,353 in Q1 2014): http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1339161/000091957414002924/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml Ancient Art (aka Teton, aka Quincy Lee) sold their position. Went from 0 in Q3 2013 to 157,137 in Q4 2013 to 0 in Q1 2014. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1426749/000108514614001199/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Baker Street completely out. http://whalewisdom.com/filer/baker-street-capital-management-llc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Baker Street completely out. http://whalewisdom.com/filer/baker-street-capital-management-llc ...of their common. Still have 9,000,000 calls per the SEC filing: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1488207/000092189514001184/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cubsfan Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Baker Street completely out. http://whalewisdom.com/filer/baker-street-capital-management-llc Unless I am reading this wrong - they sold their common and puts, and have a huge position in calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 yep, Jan 15, 60-70 call spread (you can see it in the open interest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 SHC Speaks Blog Post "Driving Profitable Sales" http://blog.searsholdings.com/voices-from-the-field/driving-profitable-sales/ Would be nice if this was a precursor to a profitable earnings release next week. Not holding my breath, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Baker Street completely out. http://whalewisdom.com/filer/baker-street-capital-management-llc Unless I am reading this wrong - they sold their common and puts, and have a huge position in calls. this is unchanged from their last filing (SC) (not 13F) - basically their common on their 13F was completely hedged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 It's interesting that he still believes in the jockey having gone from about 16 million shares 2 years ago to 24 million and change according to his last filing. Subject to peridotcapital's caveat re. this increase in ownership, I agree it's interesting. Bruce B.'s thesis has been: Well, there's all of them RE assets that are worth at least $100/share and we have an extraordinarily talented capital allocator in charge. A retail turn-around isn't necessary for this to work out well. Guess what? They need a transformation, not a turn-around. And that's much, much harder to pull off. Bruce B. is an incredibly smart guy, but I think there is a non-trivial chance he is wrong about this. We'll see. Best, Ragu I think there's a chance EL pulls this transformation off. I read message boards for shoppers (couponers, deal seekers, etc.) and they're loving the Shop Your Way points that Sears is giving them. No mention on the message boards of how Sears is also raising prices (or reducing their markdowns...same idea) while they dole out free points to get people into the store. I am not going to be surprised if we see a comp store sales increase this quarter. If not improvement in store performance, we do still have the real estate and its value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Comps did go up in February, despite the bad weather. That's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Blackstone joins the party. Nice! http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000095012314006214/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml 1,518,102 common 1,320,000 calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Respectfully, I couldn't disagree more. Fair enough. One of the primary reasons that SHLD is such a large holding for me is that Lampert has many levers to pull. Seeing as this is a large holding for you, I wish you luck. Unfortunately, I believe you are going to need it. FWIW, I like Eddie Lampert. Even given his extremely questionable communication re. plans for SHLD with shareholders and the value destruction since the merger of Sears and KMart, I believe that he is in the (extremely small) minority of CEO's who care about creating truly long-term value for shareholders. I hope he pulls this off. But, that's all it is. Hope. Not expectation. Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I read message boards for shoppers (couponers, deal seekers, etc.) and they're loving the Shop Your Way points that Sears is giving them. Extremely price sensitive customers are the ones you don't want. As Sears "invests" more and more on promotional prices through Shop Your Way and less and less on store maintenance, they go further downmarket, lose brand value, and price becomes the only reason to buy from them. It's insane to compete with Walmart, Costco and Amazon at delivering low prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I read message boards for shoppers (couponers, deal seekers, etc.) and they're loving the Shop Your Way points that Sears is giving them. Extremely price sensitive customers are the ones you don't want. As Sears "invests" more and more on promotional prices through Shop Your Way and less and less on store maintenance, they go further downmarket, lose brand value, and price becomes the only reason to buy from them. It's insane to compete with Walmart, Costco and Amazon at delivering low prices. Not that I have faith in the retail turnaround, but they can be a membership only retailer and cut down on their $1.5 billion advertising budget in a major way. The points would replace the need for advertising. People will shop there because they have points to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matson125 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I just received $5 in surprise SYW points. I'm going to look at that as a dividend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Blackstone joins the party. Nice! http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000095012314006214/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml 1,518,102 common 1,320,000 calls Really nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I read message boards for shoppers (couponers, deal seekers, etc.) and they're loving the Shop Your Way points that Sears is giving them. Extremely price sensitive customers are the ones you don't want. As Sears "invests" more and more on promotional prices through Shop Your Way and less and less on store maintenance, they go further downmarket, lose brand value, and price becomes the only reason to buy from them. It's insane to compete with Walmart, Costco and Amazon at delivering low prices. Extremely price sensitive customers are the ones you don't want? Do you recommend that all major retailers stop participating in Black Friday? I understand your point, but respectfully disagree. Not every shopper is as rational as they likely think they are. Just like investors, they prefer to discuss their 'wins' with the world...not many shoppers will brag to their friends about how they overpaid for something. There will be transactions that SHLD loses money on due to their free points, giveaways, etc. But, if done right they will see an increase in profitable transactions, which will cover the money losing transactions. They will never consistently beat Walmart, Costco, etc. on low prices. But, every day low pricing is not the only way to merchandise successfully. Promotions can work, too. Have you ever been into a Kohl's or Macy's? If so, you have seen how many promotions they run and how they do crazy discounts off 'retail prices' that no sane shopper would ever pay. In the end, it works for them. Walmart hasn't killed Kohls, Macy's, Dillards, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I just received $5 in surprise SYW points. I'm going to look at that as a dividend! Haha! That's funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I read message boards for shoppers (couponers, deal seekers, etc.) and they're loving the Shop Your Way points that Sears is giving them. Extremely price sensitive customers are the ones you don't want. As Sears "invests" more and more on promotional prices through Shop Your Way and less and less on store maintenance, they go further downmarket, lose brand value, and price becomes the only reason to buy from them. It's insane to compete with Walmart, Costco and Amazon at delivering low prices. Extremely price sensitive customers are the ones you don't want? Do you recommend that all major retailers stop participating in Black Friday? I understand your point, but respectfully disagree. Not every shopper is as rational as they likely think they are. Just like investors, they prefer to discuss their 'wins' with the world...not many shoppers will brag to their friends about how they overpaid for something. There will be transactions that SHLD loses money on due to their free points, giveaways, etc. But, if done right they will see an increase in profitable transactions, which will cover the money losing transactions. They will never consistently beat Walmart, Costco, etc. on low prices. But, every day low pricing is not the only way to merchandise successfully. Promotions can work, too. Have you ever been into a Kohl's or Macy's? If so, you have seen how many promotions they run and how they do crazy discounts off 'retail prices' that no sane shopper would ever pay. In the end, it works for them. Walmart hasn't killed Kohls, Macy's, Dillards, etc. And I believe the whole transformation into "integrated retail" idea is to avoid competing with Amazon/Walmart/Costco in price. Jeff Bezos once said in an interview that there are two ways to be successful, 1. have a small customer base and high margins 2. have a large customer base and low margins. Both can be successful. Amazon choose to be 2 and I believe Eddie wants to go with 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I read message boards for shoppers (couponers, deal seekers, etc.) and they're loving the Shop Your Way points that Sears is giving them. Extremely price sensitive customers are the ones you don't want. As Sears "invests" more and more on promotional prices through Shop Your Way and less and less on store maintenance, they go further downmarket, lose brand value, and price becomes the only reason to buy from them. It's insane to compete with Walmart, Costco and Amazon at delivering low prices. Not that I have faith in the retail turnaround, but they can be a membership only retailer and cut down on their $1.5 billion advertising budget in a major way. The points would replace the need for advertising. People will shop there because they have points to use. The idea that cutting advertising won't accelerate the sales declines is a pipe dream. It's retailing 101. What's so bizarre about how they are using their advertising budget currently is that they are not promoting the new SYW services they are rolling out. Instead they are doing stupid viral media stuff (guys dancing in boxer shorts, etc). After they have a few hundred stores revamped with all of this technology, they are going to need to market the services. Cutting back on advertising and sending people emails is not going to cut it. The video Eddie showed at teh annual meeting about all of the integrated retail services was a great marketing tool, and yet they aren't running it on TV... just at HQ in front of a couple hundred people. It's downright strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Well said, Heth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I often wonder if people confuse the terms 'compete' and 'win' (not thinking of anybody in particular, just the investing public in general when discussing SHLD). Even if SHLD competes with more established names, they don't have to win for shareholders to end up extremely happy... they just have to play the game moderately well. If Lampert just gets SHLD modestly profitable it will be a boon for the owners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 One note regarding free points, etc. The group at Sears running the SYW program understands math, and they are going to try using it to their advantage. The SYW group is only going to allocate big rewards to people that shop a lot or have large transaction sizes when they do shop. In my humble opinion they won't continue to give big points to someone that SHLD consistently doesn't make money on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 I often wonder if people confuse the terms 'compete' and 'win' (not thinking of anybody in particular, just the investing public in general when discussing SHLD). Even if SHLD competes with more established names, they don't have to win for shareholders to end up extremely happy... they just have to play the game moderately well. If Lampert just gets SHLD modestly profitable it will be a boon for the owners. Agree with this. The way I think of SYW is. It is currently SHLD's way of buying online marketshare/mindshare and trying to be one of the retailers that survives into the online/hybrid retail future. Its also what amazon does when they are behind. Amazon will literally pay you to gain and keep marketshare/mindshare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Chad - there is a membership model that does not spend much on advertising - Costco. I am not saying SHLD is there. But, the use of SYW membership tells me that is the objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20ppy Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 SYW is based on Digital Marketing technologies. There's a lot more they can do as time goes on to be more agile in the retail business. The fact that without SYW costs, SHLD would have been almost break even, says a ton: EL wanted a turn around that sticks in time, not only for a quarter or two, but for years at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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