Evolveus Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 What metrics/levers do you think they will be looking at to deterimine if there is liquidity to actually do a share buyback? More asset sales (SCC) and subsequent debt paydown? Positive SSS? Curious if a buyback is even a possiblity at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 What metrics/levers do you think they will be looking at to deterimine if there is liquidity to actually do a share buyback? More asset sales (SCC) and subsequent debt paydown? Positive SSS? Curious if a buyback is even a possiblity at this juncture. Seems like Lampert believes just a sale of Canada would do the trick... I would also note that we would continue to de-lever our balance sheet and increase our availability to the extent we are successful in monetizing our 51% stake in Sears Canada, which currently has a market value of about $730 million. As indicated on the slide, this affords us the option, should we decide to do so, to apply those proceeds to our domestic revolver. Had such a transaction taken place as of the end of our first fiscal quarter, and had we applied those proceeds to the outstanding domestic revolver balance, we would have had no net short-term debt. Actually, we would have been net cash positive. I would also note that we currently have $500 million of authorization remaining for share repurchases, as well as $275 million of authorization remaining for repurchases of our debt. As we have commented, we believe that we have ample liquidity to run the business and also have the benefit of access to a rich portfolio of assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 The psychology on this thread is fascinating, a lot of investors seem very married to this position. I'm wondering what would need to happen for any long term holder to decide to sell? Is there even a piece of news that could convince any of you guys to sell? I'm being honest about this, I'm really curious to know what turn of events would be necessary before you threw in the towel, or is throwing in the towel not even an option at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 The psychology on this thread is fascinating, a lot of investors seem very married to this position. I'm wondering what would need to happen for any long term holder to decide to sell? Is there even a piece of news that could convince any of you guys to sell? I'm being honest about this, I'm really curious to know what turn of events would be necessary before you threw in the towel, or is throwing in the towel not even an option at this point? Any substantial evidence that the real estate values are deteriorating would make me reconsider the margin of safety which, in turn, would make me reconsider the entire investment thesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 If Lampert began destroying value by investing in pieces of SHLD that weren't productive and had little prospects of good returns (I think SYW is productive use of capital) I would likely sell if the price was right. With the stock price low selling is less attractive. Also, if Lampert keeps money losing stores open too long I would consider selling. I understand 'too long' can be subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 The psychology on this thread is fascinating, a lot of investors seem very married to this position. I'm wondering what would need to happen for any long term holder to decide to sell? Is there even a piece of news that could convince any of you guys to sell? I'm being honest about this, I'm really curious to know what turn of events would be necessary before you threw in the towel, or is throwing in the towel not even an option at this point? Apart from the above: if Lampert sold his position. The point is: If you buy the long thesis at all, you have several billions in asset value as margin of safety. This means you can allow yourself to sit still for a very long time before your margin of safety is meaningfully impaired. But you also have to. I think this is an investment that can pay off big time, but you have to be extremely patient; even more patient than in "regular" value investments – you need the Berkowitz kind of patience. So for you it's "being married" to the position, for me it's more about being patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 What I find a little bit strange is that people are talking about buying back some shares while there is still a cashburn and a lot of investment in Shop your way. Yes the price is cheap, but until the transformation is really working, I would be careful about using a lot of cash to buy back some shares... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 What I find a little bit strange is that people are talking about buying back some shares while there is still a cashburn and a lot of investment in Shop your way. Yes the price is cheap, but once the transformation is not really working, I would be careful about using a lot of cash to buy back some shares... I agree. Momentarily, liquidity should be Lampert's first concern – and I think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 What I find a little bit strange is that people are talking about buying back some shares while there is still a cashburn and a lot of investment in Shop your way. Yes the price is cheap, but until the transformation is really working, I would be careful about using a lot of cash to buy back some shares... Lampert hinted at possibly buying back shares. For those that think Lampert is rational and has a high level of financial acumen (I believe this to be true) a buyback would be telling. Assuming he is rational and hasn't lost his marbles that action would speak volumes as to the strength of SHLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 What I find a little bit strange is that people are talking about buying back some shares while there is still a cashburn and a lot of investment in Shop your way. Yes the price is cheap, but until the transformation is really working, I would be careful about using a lot of cash to buy back some shares... people are fascinated by share buybacks. but you are 100% correct imo. he needs to pay down debt. buybacks are something you do when you have excess liquidity/capital and generate cash. that's certainly not the case here. this company takes a Zippo and lights money on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 The psychology on this thread is fascinating, a lot of investors seem very married to this position. I'm wondering what would need to happen for any long term holder to decide to sell? Is there even a piece of news that could convince any of you guys to sell? I'm being honest about this, I'm really curious to know what turn of events would be necessary before you threw in the towel, or is throwing in the towel not even an option at this point? I forgot to mention the most important metric of all... fake mustache sales. If those decline I'm selling every share I own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I forgot to mention the most important metric of all... fake mustache sales. If those decline I'm selling every share I own. LOL, wish SHLD breaks it out in their 10k though. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 The psychology on this thread is fascinating, a lot of investors seem very married to this position. I'm wondering what would need to happen for any long term holder to decide to sell? Is there even a piece of news that could convince any of you guys to sell? I'm being honest about this, I'm really curious to know what turn of events would be necessary before you threw in the towel, or is throwing in the towel not even an option at this point? It's always an option. If you start to see the intrinsic value decrease substantially to the point that you've lost your margin of safety, then you should sell immediately. I won't presume to speak for everyone who's on this thread, but not every person that is invested in Sears Holdings is looking at this through rose-colored glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Should be an interesting earnings release tomorrow. I went back and looked to see what FCF (excluding pension contributions) was in Q2 2013 and it was positive $29 million. I hope for the bulls sake that we see some year-over-year improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Once again a quarter with "unacceptable" earnings. Bright spots are SSS increase of 0.8% at Sears domestic and debt reductions. Because of inventory reductions, there's not much liquidity left under the revolver credit facility, however. Second Quarter Updates: Sears Full-line stores experienced comparable store sales growth of 0.1% for the quarter as compared to a decline of 0.8% in the second quarter of last year, despite the continuing impact of consumer electronics industry trends. Excluding the impact of consumer electronics, comparable store sales growth would have been 1.6%; Kmart comparable stores sales were down 1.7% for the quarter as compared to a 2.1% decline last year, also despite the continuing impact of consumer electronics industry trends, as well as the impact of our grocery & household goods business. Excluding the impact of both, comparable store sales would have declined 1.0%; Sales to Shop Your Way members in Sears Full-line and Kmart stores increased to 73% of eligible sales, up from 71% during the second quarter last year; Online and multi-channel sales grew 18% over the prior year second quarter and 22% over the prior year first half; We continue to evaluate our Sears Auto Center business, as well as our 51% interest in Sears Canada, including a potential sale of our interest or Sears Canada as a whole; Continued with our inventory productivity efforts, with consolidated net inventory down approximately $620 million and domestic net inventory down approximately $510 million year-over-year, when excluding the impact of Lands' End inventory; Reduced adjusted net consolidated debt year-over-year by $301 million, when including our unfunded pension obligation; net adjusted domestic debt on the same basis declined by $220 million; Reduced net domestic short-term debt by $565 million, or 41%, from the prior year second quarter to $808 million; Increased cash on hand on a consolidated basis to $839 million and domestically cash increased by $213 million to $596 million from the prior year second quarter; and Total amount available to borrow under our revolving credit facilities was $486 million on a consolidated basis and domestic availability was $240 million, with net consolidated inventory of $3.9 billion and net domestic inventory of $3.5 billion, providing availability and financial resources of $5.2 billion on a consolidated basis and $4.4 billion on a domestic basis. http://searsholdings.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=16310&item=137306 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Here is the transcript: http://searsholdings.com/invest/docs/2014_Q2_Call_transcript.pdf Schriesheim re. pension liabilities: On Slide 16 you can see that our Domestic Pension Contributions over the past 9 years, including 2014, have totaled $2.9 billion. We expect this year to mark the peak of our pension funding needs going forward with our pension funding declining through 2019, at which point we expect our pension to be fully funded. As you can see, prior to taking into account new legislation, our aggregate pension funding requirements over the 5 year period ending 2019 are expected to be about $1.1 billion based on current interest rates and regulations – and possibly sooner should interest rates increase. This should provide relief from the funding pressure we have felt as we have honored our legacy pension obligations. From the presentation (page 16): On August 8th, new legislation was enacted that amends existing pension funding requirements, which we expect will: • Increase the discount rates we use to determine our pension liability, resulting in lower liabilities and lower funding obligations. • Decrease contributions from those shown above in 2014 by $65M, and contributions in 2015, 2016 and 2017 by $60M, $70M, and $60M • The ultimate amount of pension contributions and timing could be affected by changes in the applicable regulations or other regulatory actions, as well as financial market and investment performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 I love the "we generated $500 of liquidity" during the quarter, which "created value." Embarrassing. Far from creating value, they are destroying it; just plugging the retail hole Lampert is digging with precious assets that should go to shareholders. And of course not to mention the whopping buyback program of a whole...zero dollars. We certainly have the next Buffett on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 I love the "we generated $500 of liquidity" during the quarter, which "created value." Embarrassing. Far from creating value, they are destroying it; just plugging the retail hole Lampert is digging with precious assets that should go to shareholders. And of course not to mention the whopping buyback program of a whole...zero dollars. We certainly have the next Buffett on our hands. Buyback with what – additional debt? As long as Lampert hasn't sold Sears Canada, there is no buyback program – I think that's quite obvious. And even after the sale he is going to evaluate whether continuing to pay down debt makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 And of course not to mention the whopping buyback program of a whole...zero dollars. I don't think anybody was expecting Q2 buybacks. The discussion was based on the sale of Sears Canada as the catalyst for a buyback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 Well, headline looks dismal. Will have to look deeper. The thing I hated the most is still no schedule on when the transformation will be done and when we can get an acceptable quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Semantics. By the time SCC is sold the cash will be needed to plug "investment" in the "transformation". Precisely where the other SCC dividend and now the LE dividend went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Moderate SSS improvement and GAAP losses. Not bad for a wild guess. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Should be an interesting earnings release tomorrow. I went back and looked to see what FCF (excluding pension contributions) was in Q2 2013 and it was positive $29 million. I hope for the bulls sake that we see some year-over-year improvement. Second quarter FCF was negative $138 million (excluding the impact of pension contributions, which were an additional $103 million). Cash burn is getting worse, not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Second quarter FCF was negative $138 million (excluding the impact of pension contributions, which were an additional $103 million). Cash burn is getting worse, not better. Moderate SSS improvement and GAAP losses. Not bad for a wild guess. :P Kmart sales are still eroding. Might be more difficult to close/sell badly performing Kmart stores. Another "meh" quarter, but 2 quarters of improving SSS at Sears domestic is better than nothing, I guess, and I also like the continuously improving balance sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted August 21, 2014 Share Posted August 21, 2014 Should be an interesting earnings release tomorrow. I went back and looked to see what FCF (excluding pension contributions) was in Q2 2013 and it was positive $29 million. I hope for the bulls sake that we see some year-over-year improvement. Second quarter FCF was negative $138 million (excluding the impact of pension contributions, which were an additional $103 million). Cash burn is getting worse, not better. Not sure how people expected operations to improve vs last year given that Lands End was spun off. Expect operations to be terrible until the store base is much smaller, store size is much smaller, and the amount of subleased real estate is much larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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