SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp

[Luke 532]

Pending tenant deals with Moe's Southwest Grill (love that place), MOD Pizza, Ted's Montana Grill, etc.  Scroll down to the very bottom of this Auto Center leasing flyer: http://search.midamericagrp.com/property_files/flyer_52407.pdf

 

I don't know about the others but Moe's is a big hit here in Loudoun County.  I wonder how many deals like this are in the works?  Brings to mind a couple comments that they're looking to develop relationships with national retailers and restaurants.  If you establish a relationship with a place like Moe's the odds increase that you'll be their landlord the next time they want to open another restaurant.

 

From speaking with people involved, they're currently only considering national retailers or large regional restaurant concepts for most of these spaces.

 

"Seritage ramps-up National Road Show with Angie Comstock leading portfolio reviews with national retail chains." http://www.seritage.com/leasing.aspx

[Luke 532]

Latest SHD Speaks blog post:

Kmart Pharmacy: Engaged with Members & the Community

http://blog.searsholdings.com/leadership-viewpoint/kmart-pharmacy-engaged-with-members-the-community/

 

[jeffmori7]

Pending tenant deals with Moe's Southwest Grill (love that place), MOD Pizza, Ted's Montana Grill, etc.  Scroll down to the very bottom of this Auto Center leasing flyer: http://search.midamericagrp.com/property_files/flyer_52407.pdf

 

I don't know about the others but Moe's is a big hit here in Loudoun County.  I wonder how many deals like this are in the works?  Brings to mind a couple comments that they're looking to develop relationships with national retailers and restaurants.  If you establish a relationship with a place like Moe's the odds increase that you'll be their landlord the next time they want to open another restaurant.

 

From speaking with people involved, they're currently only considering national retailers or large regional restaurant concepts for most of these spaces.

 

"Seritage ramps-up National Road Show with Angie Comstock leading portfolio reviews with national retail chains." http://www.seritage.com/leasing.aspx

 

I would like them to involve SYW with the different tenants. They could build a large networks of restaurants and retailers with whom they do business on a large scale by proposing them to join SYW in the meantime as they rent some space.

[jeffmori7]

A quick check on http://www.shcrealty.com/ shows that there are 3077 operating store opportunities and 120 closed store opportunities.

 

It appears that while Sears are closing a lot of store, they have difficulties selling, leasing, subleasing, transforming them at the same pace. So except for leases not renewed, the story is not always over once the closure or transformation is announced.

 

we should try to keep track of those numbers over time.

 

More than one month later..they are at 3075 operating store opportunities and 117 closed store opportunities...so it is going down..but really slowly.

 

Operating store opportunities down to 3018, while closed are up to 119 opportunities.

 

7/18/2014... operating opps: 2968, closed opps: 136

 

On 9/05/2014, numbers are going down a bit : operating opps: 2954, closed opps: 132

[Luke 532]

Operating store opportunities down to 3018, while closed are up to 119 opportunities.

 

On 9/05/2014, numbers are going down a bit : operating opps: 2954, closed opps: 132

 

51 opportunities realized in 4 months, roughly 3 per week.  Not bad.

[Luke 532]

I would like them to involve SYW with the different tenants. They could build a large networks of restaurants and retailers with whom they do business on a large scale by proposing them to join SYW in the meantime as they rent some space.

 

I'd be very surprised if they're not making a concerted effort to do just that.

 

If they get Moe's involved in SYW it might gain some serious traction in Northern Virginia.

[DCG]

I have no confidence in Eddie Lampert so I wouldn't even consider it until he's out as CEO. The only way I see that happening is if he comes to his senses and steps down from the role.

[dingo]

We are actually getting close.

Moving from inventory financing to real estate

Auto center partnership or seperation

Sale of Canada

Store closures

Shop Your Way taking off online(check alexa)

Positive and accelerating comps

Ramp of franchised hometown stores

Pension liability winding down

Only a couple quarters left

[oddballstocks]

We are actually getting close.

Moving from inventory financing to real estate

Auto center partnership or seperation

Sale of Canada

Store closures

Shop Your Way taking off online(check alexa)

Positive and accelerating comps

Ramp of franchised hometown stores

Pension liability winding down

Only a couple quarters left

 

Until what? They're profitable? That 200k people are without jobs and all the stores are closed? That shareholders make their magic 10x return on this? That SYW overtakes Amazon and my 80yr old neighbors are using it (they use Amazon..so not out of the question)?

 

I'd love to know exactly what will happen in two quarters.  People have been forecasting the turnaround of Sears for almost a decade now.  So to know that it's only six months away from being done is great, but what is the metric? How do we know if your prediction is correct?

[plato1976]

the SHLD thread has some analysis I call as "the mother of all wishful thinking"

 

We are actually getting close.

Moving from inventory financing to real estate

Auto center partnership or seperation

Sale of Canada

Store closures

Shop Your Way taking off online(check alexa)

Positive and accelerating comps

Ramp of franchised hometown stores

Pension liability winding down

Only a couple quarters left

 

Until what? They're profitable? That 200k people are without jobs and all the stores are closed? That shareholders make their magic 10x return on this? That SYW overtakes Amazon and my 80yr old neighbors are using it (they use Amazon..so not out of the question)?

 

I'd love to know exactly what will happen in two quarters.  People have been forecasting the turnaround of Sears for almost a decade now.  So to know that it's only six months away from being done is great, but what is the metric? How do we know if your prediction is correct?

[ni-co]

Why do people become so emotional when it comes to weighing chance and risk of this investment?

 

Don't forget that SHLD has been profitable until 2011. The way some people here in this thread make it sound is that there is no way SHLD could ever be profitable again. Why? Aren't there other brick and mortar retailers turning profits? Is it completely unfathomable that SHLD will be able to emulate something of what HD, WMT or M are doing? Yes, SHLD has some hard problems to solve but getting people to shop in malls is not one of it.

[Vish_ram]

it is after all money. If you are long and win, you pat yourself on back for being smart. If you lose, you tell yourself,  retail is something that has stumped the likes of Buffett and Ackman.

 

life goes on.

[Kraven]

We are actually getting close.

Moving from inventory financing to real estate

Auto center partnership or seperation

Sale of Canada

Store closures

Shop Your Way taking off online(check alexa)

Positive and accelerating comps

Ramp of franchised hometown stores

Pension liability winding down

Only a couple quarters left

 

Until what? They're profitable? That 200k people are without jobs and all the stores are closed? That shareholders make their magic 10x return on this? That SYW overtakes Amazon and my 80yr old neighbors are using it (they use Amazon..so not out of the question)?

 

I'd love to know exactly what will happen in two quarters.  People have been forecasting the turnaround of Sears for almost a decade now.  So to know that it's only six months away from being done is great, but what is the metric? How do we know if your prediction is correct?

 

You will know its correct when every man, woman and child has a fake mustache to call their very own.

[tooskinneejs]

I often wonder what could have resulted had the amount of time and attention spent focusing on this highly unlikely turnaround story been spent on focusing on other companies with reasonable prospects.  It used to be daily postings on every hometown/outlet opening, now its daily postings on store closings and weekly postings listing every Sears promotional press release.  Regarding the continual barrage of non-substantive and promotional postings on this forum, I think at this point if you haven't convinced others on this board that Sears is going to be the mother of all homeruns others just aren't ever going to be convinced.

[Rainforesthiker]

I often wonder what could have resulted had the amount of time and attention spent focusing on this highly unlikely turnaround story been spent on focusing on other companies with reasonable prospects.  It used to be daily postings on every hometown/outlet opening, now its daily postings on store closings and weekly postings listing every Sears promotional press release.  Regarding the continual barrage of non-substantive and promotional postings on this forum, I think at this point if you haven't convinced others on this board that Sears is going to be the mother of all homeruns others just aren't ever going to be convinced.

 

+1

[oddballstocks]

I often wonder what could have resulted had the amount of time and attention spent focusing on this highly unlikely turnaround story been spent on focusing on other companies with reasonable prospects.  It used to be daily postings on every hometown/outlet opening, now its daily postings on store closings and weekly postings listing every Sears promotional press release.  Regarding the continual barrage of non-substantive and promotional postings on this forum, I think at this point if you haven't convinced others on this board that Sears is going to be the mother of all homeruns others just aren't ever going to be convinced.

 

Very well said

[merkhet]

There are a number of cognitive biases on both sides that drive this discussion one way or the other.

 

The largest one is probably that it's a puzzle, and many investors are drawn to puzzles. How many times have people on other threads and/or personally looked at an investment and reached an "ah-ha" moment where you just "understood" what was going on for the company?

 

Investors on both sides "understand" what is going on in this puzzle. The fact that it's a difficult puzzle adds to the allure of being one of the ones that "gets it." (Either figuring out ESL/Berkowitz's secret or having one over on both ESL and Berkowitz -- take your pick.)

 

The ego and various other biases do the rest of the work.

[Eye4Valu]

Put your $ where your mouth is, and short the stock with Ackman like conviction. Talk is cheap as this thread proves.

[ni-co]

There are a number of cognitive biases on both sides that drive this discussion one way or the other.

 

The largest one is probably that it's a puzzle, and many investors are drawn to puzzles. How many times have people on other threads and/or personally looked at an investment and reached an "ah-ha" moment where you just "understood" what was going on for the company?

 

Investors on both sides "understand" what is going on in this puzzle. The fact that it's a difficult puzzle adds to the allure of being one of the ones that "gets it." (Either figuring out ESL/Berkowitz's secret or having one over on both ESL and Berkowitz -- take your pick.)

 

The ego and various other biases do the rest of the work.

 

Wise remark. I agree.

[Rainforesthiker]

There are a number of cognitive biases on both sides that drive this discussion one way or the other.

 

The largest one is probably that it's a puzzle, and many investors are drawn to puzzles. How many times have people on other threads and/or personally looked at an investment and reached an "ah-ha" moment where you just "understood" what was going on for the company?

 

Investors on both sides "understand" what is going on in this puzzle. The fact that it's a difficult puzzle adds to the allure of being one of the ones that "gets it." (Either figuring out ESL/Berkowitz's secret or having one over on both ESL and Berkowitz -- take your pick.)

 

The ego and various other biases do the rest of the work.

 

Seems to me that "difficult puzzle" = too hard pile

In the investment game, there is no "strength of schedule" component, i.e., there is no benefit to tackling the tough investments.  If people lose money on  SHLD then I don't think they should take solace in the fact that it was a tough investment.

If SHLD truly does belong in the too hard pile, then it likely is not a good candidate for either a long or short position.  Here putting your money where your mouth is would be to just not invest at all.

[ni-co]

There are a number of cognitive biases on both sides that drive this discussion one way or the other.

 

The largest one is probably that it's a puzzle, and many investors are drawn to puzzles. How many times have people on other threads and/or personally looked at an investment and reached an "ah-ha" moment where you just "understood" what was going on for the company?

 

Investors on both sides "understand" what is going on in this puzzle. The fact that it's a difficult puzzle adds to the allure of being one of the ones that "gets it." (Either figuring out ESL/Berkowitz's secret or having one over on both ESL and Berkowitz -- take your pick.)

 

The ego and various other biases do the rest of the work.

 

Seems to me that "difficult puzzle" = too hard pile

In the investment game, there is no "strength of schedule" component, i.e., there is no benefit to tackling the tough investments.  If people lose money on  SHLD then I don't think they should take solace in the fact that it was a tough investment.

If SHLD truly does belong in the too hard pile, then it likely is not a good candidate for either a long or short position.  Here putting your money where your mouth is would be to just not invest at all.

 

There is a huge difference between "hard to figure out" and "too hard to figure out".  I think it's completely the opposite with hard to figure out investments: they can be immensely rewarding while not being all that risky. Distressed or special situations investing wouldn't be a thing if it were otherwise. This is not the Buffett approach, though. Compared to Buffett Lampert is much more of a distressed and special situations guy.

[BargainValueHunter]

I often wonder what could have resulted had the amount of time and attention spent focusing on this highly unlikely turnaround story been spent on focusing on other companies with reasonable prospects.  It used to be daily postings on every hometown/outlet opening, now its daily postings on store closings and weekly postings listing every Sears promotional press release.  Regarding the continual barrage of non-substantive and promotional postings on this forum, I think at this point if you haven't convinced others on this board that Sears is going to be the mother of all homeruns others just aren't ever going to be convinced.

Amen!

[Mephistopheles]

Put your $ where your mouth is, and short the stock with Ackman like conviction. Talk is cheap as this thread proves.

 

Another example of the emotion surrounding this stock. Our mouth is in the "I don't know" category, so the best place for our money is on the sidelines.

[Scudbucket]

I'm curious, how many are:

Bull	Bear
Made Money	Made Money
Lost Money	Lost Money

 

My guess is that sentiment is extremely influenced by actual results, not the probabilities set out before and during the investment.

[Luke 532]

I'm curious, how many are:

Bull	Bear
Made Money	Made Money
Lost Money	Lost Money

 

My guess is that sentiment is extremely influenced by actual results, not the probabilities set out before and during the investment.

 

 

I'm bullish and currently lost money (post-spin adjusted cost basis of about $38... all LE proceeds were reinvested in SHLD).  I've also got a bunch of call options, short puts, etc. but the $38 is my common share cost basis.  With that said, my level of conviction is roughly the same that it has been for the past year and a half.  Not much has changed with my thesis.  All else being equal, if the stock was much higher I'd be less bullish, of course.