CorpRaider Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I made the mistake of forgetting that Edward S. Lampert controls shares via entities other than ESL a few weeks ago. He's firmly in control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 He owns a lot personally that are not through ESL. His direct and indirect ownership is at 48%. Bruce is at 25% or so. Bruce owns shares personally as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 hi, Guys, At today's price, SHLD and SHOS, which one do you think is more undervalued? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 "Too hard" taken to new heights. I bought a treadmill from Sears locally. Here is my experience, - a 200K Sq Ft facility where there were more employees than customers - a rookie sales rep. He could not even find the safety key for the model I wanted to try out! He did try to be helpful. - I made two trips, researched consumer reports etc. got a friend's recommendation and made my decision at home. - Ended up buying a model not in the story physically. I went to Sears because of the low price guarantee. - The delivery was delayed twice. The cancellation was averted only because I got really busy at work and did not have time to cancel. - The treadmill was delivered and I'm happy so far. And oh, btw, both the rookie sales guy and a follow up telephone sales guy were too eager to sell me the extended protection plan. I know enough to not to bite on that one. I know a guy who fixes treadmills locally who is reasonable. That is my ext protection plan. I've learned from a Sears employee, these extended protection plans are key contributors to their margin (what's left, in light of empty stores!) Sears, the store is as dead as it can be. I've been shopping around here for 12 years now. Somewhere on this thread I read that there is a difference between a good business and a good investment. Good luck with that one. Be sure to know where you're standing in the line and if anything will be left in the boiling cauldron by the time you get to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Interesting dynamic with Sears right now. A lot of long-time bulls on this board are either 1) selling or 2) skeptical as all hell. At the same time the stock keeps moving up tick by tick. Is this just another one of Sears short covering rallies to be foiled by the reality of the situation? Hard to say other than sentiment seems to be very poor even among value investors. I have no view on this but I find it interesting. Congrats to a lot of the guys who held/added LE/SHLD during what has been a difficult period. If I didn't know any better it feels like a massive shift in sentiment that typically occurs near a bottom. This rights offering is eliminating at least two majors concerns for SHLD so it has that going for it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Interesting dynamic with Sears right now. A lot of long-time bulls on this board are either 1) selling or 2) skeptical as all hell. At the same time the stock keeps moving up tick by tick. Selling? I can't speak for others, but as a long-term investor (intending on holding for decades) I really don't care about a 50% jump in 2 weeks. As a trader, I certainly do care about the move. There's a major difference between investing and trading, and one can do both on the same underlying. Besides, it's not as if this move wasn't possible... just look at the short interest as a percentage of float. And it could push much, much further. Cheers to those that have benefited from the phenomenon so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
focusinvestor Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Interesting dynamic with Sears right now. A lot of long-time bulls on this board are either 1) selling or 2) skeptical as all hell. At the same time the stock keeps moving up tick by tick. Is this just another one of Sears short covering rallies to be foiled by the reality of the situation? Hard to say other than sentiment seems to be very poor even among value investors. It's a small sample size based on the more vocal posters on this board. In my investing career, this can't be even considered a polarizing stock... Everyone, I mean everyone, has bad things to say about this company. Everyone assumes Eddie is crazy, Sears is terrible, and unlevered real estate is going to zero. The amount of mental shortcuts every constituency has taken has been extreme in this company. I have no view on this but I find it interesting. Congrats to a lot of the guys who held/added LE/SHLD during what has been a difficult period. If I didn't know any better it feels like a massive shift in sentiment that typically occurs near a bottom. This rights offering is eliminating at least two majors concerns for SHLD so it has that going for it too. No one said special situation investing is easy... it's hard for value investors to even try to discount cash flows here with the complexity of the business. Pessimism has been so rampant that no one seems to want to believe that the company had many levers to pull and continues to have abundant levers to pull to figure things out in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Pessimism has been so rampant that no one seems to want to believe that the company had many levers to pull and continues to have abundant levers to pull to figure things out in the future. So they just have to pull a lever to figure it out? Why haven't they pulled that lever before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Pessimism has been so rampant that no one seems to want to believe that the company had many levers to pull and continues to have abundant levers to pull to figure things out in the future. So they just have to pull a lever to figure it out? Why haven't they pulled that lever before! You know what he means, Eric. You've mentioned at least one of the levers yourself in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 The reason I sold is simple. I like the pool of assets that I had invested in (RE, brands), but a significant portion of those assets are being monetized not to pay dividends, but to fund a risky and unproven business. What good are those assets if we can never touch them? Furthermore there is not much comforting or reliable information on the progress of the "transformation", and there is no indication as to if/when Eddie would cut his losses. I don't know if Eddie has gone crazy, or if he's trying to steal the company, or if he's in a commitment trap, or if he's trying to run a charity for the employees, or if the transformation is actually working. But I guess it doesn't matter, because based on the evidence I see I am not comfortable with this capital allocation decision, and unfortunately it involves a significant amount of capital. I think many who are still long agree that a) the stock is undervalued based on assets and b) that SYW is a cash burner. Yet they still feel comfortable holding, whereas others do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 The reason I sold is simple. I like the pool of assets that I had invested in (RE, brands), but a significant portion of those assets are being monetized not to pay dividends, but to fund a risky and unproven business. What good are those assets if we can never touch them? Furthermore there is not much comforting or reliable information on the progress of the "transformation", and there is no indication as to if/when Eddie would cut his losses. I don't know if Eddie has gone crazy, or if he's trying to steal the company, or if he's in a commitment trap, or if he's trying to run a charity for the employees, or if the transformation is actually working. But I guess it doesn't matter, because based on the evidence I see I am not comfortable with this capital allocation decision, and unfortunately it involves a significant amount of capital. I think many who are still long agree that a) the stock is undervalued based on assets and b) that SYW is a cash burner. Yet they still feel comfortable holding, whereas others do not. Good, I think it is more constructive to this board to discuss why longs sell! Krazenyc -- do you mind talking about why you don't want to participate the bond offering? For full disclosure, I also sold 1/3 of my position today and bought some SHOS, which I feel is more undervalued than SHLD for now, at least from the short-term perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-sears-doomed-back-1978-174019181.html Lewis says Lampert has been selling off the company's assets " to generate cash which he can then invest somewhere outside of the retail businesses." I found the statement above interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krazeenyc Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-sears-doomed-back-1978-174019181.html Lewis says Lampert has been selling off the company's assets " to generate cash which he can then invest somewhere outside of the retail businesses." I found the statement above interesting. well that's true -- he's investing in the real estate business... Most of the capex going into Sears stores is going into building out stores for other retailers. (at least that's what my math tells me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-sears-doomed-back-1978-174019181.html Lewis says Lampert has been selling off the company's assets " to generate cash which he can then invest somewhere outside of the retail businesses." I found the statement above interesting. well that's true -- he's investing in the real estate business... Most of the capex going into Sears stores is going into building out stores for other retailers. (at least that's what my math tells me) Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Congrats, almost double from low. I took lost on my call way too soon.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Pessimism has been so rampant that no one seems to want to believe that the company had many levers to pull and continues to have abundant levers to pull to figure things out in the future. So they just have to pull a lever to figure it out? Why haven't they pulled that lever before! You know what he means, Eric. You've mentioned at least one of the levers yourself in the past. He also knows what I mean. They've been pulling levers for years. Results? Are there more levers to pull? Yes. Will results get better from those levers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Short interest update for those interested... Short (as of 9/30/2014): 17.190M Lampert/Berkowitz/Tisch: 81.208M Lampert/Berkowitz/Tisch/Stahl: 87.037M Outstanding: 106.451M Float (excluding Stahl): 25.243M Float (including Stahl): 19.414M http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/shld/short-interest Short interest as % of float: 68.1% (assuming zero shares are long-term oriented other than Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch). Short interest as % of float: 88.5% (assuming zero shares are long-term oriented other than Lampert, Berkowitz, Tisch, and Stahl). 68.1% is the highest it has been since I started tracking short interest for SHLD. Pounding the table, similar to August 2013, might again be in order. Short interest update for those interested... Short (as of 10/15/2014): 17.348M Lampert/Berkowitz/Tisch: ~81.611M Lampert/Berkowitz/Tisch/Stahl: ~87.440M Outstanding: 106.484M Float (excluding Stahl): ~24.873M Float (including Stahl): ~19.044M Short interest as % of float: 69.7% (assuming zero shares are long-term oriented other than Lampert, Berkowitz, and Tisch). Short interest as % of float: 91.1% (assuming zero shares are long-term oriented other than Lampert, Berkowitz, Tisch, and Stahl). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 He also knows what I mean. They've been pulling levers for years. Results? Are there more levers to pull? Yes. Will results get better from those levers? Time will tell. He can unload some prime property back to the malls. He can announce that Seritage will become a REIT. He can strike a large real estate transaction that makes the Primark deal look like child's play. So on and so forth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeresyValue Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Surprised still no prospectus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Surprised still no prospectus... I e-mailed SearsNotesandWarrantsOffer@georgeson.com last week and they said "we will forward the prospectus as soon as it becomes available, shortly after 10/31." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Once it reached 1000 pg, Andy Kilpatrick will get copyrights of these pages and write a book "Of illusory value - a story of Lampert & sears". Can we mark this post and revisit in a few years, factoring in any spinoffs between now and then? "Illusory value" at $28.13. The value here is very real. Yes, If I'm wrong, I'll send $500 to a favorite charity of yours. Why don't every bull and bear make a bet like this? It'll make it interesting and beneficial to society. Sounds good. Prison Fellowship would be my choice as they do some really good stuff: http://www.prisonfellowship.org/ Vish_ram, if you'd like, we can adjust the strike to $39 if we change your potential contribution to $700 and keep mine at $500. Still factoring in future spinoffs. The result is an even greater benefit to society as the potential pot size increases. Let me know. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Nordstrom finally announces it is them (Rack) that will be leasing the Clearwater, FL space... http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/SF49178.htm Previous rumor that it was Nordstrom Rack... http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/retail/sears-auto-center-closed-at-westfield-countryside-mall/2197922 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vish_ram Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Once it reached 1000 pg, Andy Kilpatrick will get copyrights of these pages and write a book "Of illusory value - a story of Lampert & sears". Can we mark this post and revisit in a few years, factoring in any spinoffs between now and then? "Illusory value" at $28.13. The value here is very real. Yes, If I'm wrong, I'll send $500 to a favorite charity of yours. Why don't every bull and bear make a bet like this? It'll make it interesting and beneficial to society. Sounds good. Prison Fellowship would be my choice as they do some really good stuff: http://www.prisonfellowship.org/ Vish_ram, if you'd like, we can adjust the strike to $39 if we change your potential contribution to $700 and keep mine at $500. Still factoring in future spinoffs. The result is an even greater benefit to society as the potential pot size increases. Let me know. Thanks. I'm comfortable with $28 strike. We didn't define the years, I thought of 2019 when I wrote that. We'll revisit in 2019. This is ample time to find out if I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Luke, I'll donate $1,000 to your cause if you donate $1,000 to mine. SHLD has to be above $28 by 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Luke, I'll donate $1,000 to your cause if you donate $1,000 to mine. SHLD has to be above $28 by 2019. Nah, one bet is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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