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SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp


alertmeipp

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did SHLDW start trading? Bloomberg shows some volumn around 15/share but my broker shows bad symbol.

 

I am interested in this as well. I didn't get a chance to participate in the rights due to my broker but would like to watch shldw.

 

It's trading at $14/share with and implied volatility of about 28%. The June 15 $28 call trading at implied volatility of 83%. A lot of selling pressure.

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Interesting theory.  It's predicated on the long term holders deciding to NOT lend out their shares for borrow.  The question here is that given the high borrow rates, why wouldn't someone lend out their shares?  I'm pretty sure the more sophisticated institutional investors have a deal with the PB in terms of the borrow collected for loaning out shares.  Unless the long term holders got together and decided to manufacture a short squeeze (is this legal?), I'm not sure I see the corner.

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I think a short squeeze is as much, if not more, created by some of the shorts looking to exit their position vs. the longs trying to squeeze shorts.  In this case the longs are just buying at what they consider 'great (low) prices' and holding at what they consider 'good (fair) prices' which means shares may not be available until the stock is a 'high prices.'

 

Also, remember when shares are shorted they must be sold to another new shareholder.  So, if a company has 100 million shares outstanding and 100 million shareholders, once shares are sold short, lets say 10 million shares, the current shareholders lend their 10 million shares to a short seller (the lending party still economically acts and feelsl like a shareholder) and a new shareholder group buys the 10 million shares.  We end up with basically 110 million shares owned and eventual demand for 10 million shares from short sellers (when they close the short).  Of course, this is all assuming bankruptcy or a large selloff by existing shareholders never happens.  Both big "IFs"

 

Cheers!

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Interesting theory.  It's predicated on the long term holders deciding to NOT lend out their shares for borrow.  The question here is that given the high borrow rates, why wouldn't someone lend out their shares?  I'm pretty sure the more sophisticated institutional investors have a deal with the PB in terms of the borrow collected for loaning out shares.  Unless the long term holders got together and decided to manufacture a short squeeze (is this legal?), I'm not sure I see the corner.

 

Isn't this the guy who wrote about CHK in OID a couple years ago?

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Interesting theory.  It's predicated on the long term holders deciding to NOT lend out their shares for borrow.  The question here is that given the high borrow rates, why wouldn't someone lend out their shares?

 

Counter party risk? That's why I don't lend them out.

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Maybe a watched corner never happens.  I think if one were to occur, it would have already happened.  November 7 was probably the best odds for it, and what has the price done since then?  The large holders supply shares when the borrow gets tight.  For now, I think longs need to get over the dream.

 

No position currently.

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As a ~5% owner Marcato is pushing Dillards (DDS) to do a REIT spin-off for their 245 owned stores:

 

http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/origin/multivu_archive/ENR/Presentation.pdf

 

In their presentation they value DDS's owned real estate at an E/V of $6.225 billion. Based on 44.8 million owned square feet, that comes to $139 per square foot.

 

Sears owns about 66 million square feet (ex Kmart), which at the same valuation would equate to an E/V of $9.174 billion. Sears just happens to be contemplating the sale/leaseback of 200-300 stores, vs 245 for all of DDS.

 

Food for thought.

 

 

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As a ~5% owner Marcato is pushing Dillards (DDS) to do a REIT spin-off for their 245 owned stores:

 

http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/origin/multivu_archive/ENR/Presentation.pdf

 

In their presentation they value DDS's owned real estate at an E/V of $6.225 billion. Based on 44.8 million owned square feet, that comes to $139 per square foot.

 

Sears owns about 66 million square feet (ex Kmart), which at the same valuation would equate to an E/V of $9.174 billion. Sears just happens to be contemplating the sale/leaseback of 200-300 stores, vs 245 for all of DDS.

 

Food for thought.

 

Damn close to the ~$80/share BB calculated a few years ago…

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Dead mall...dead Sears:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-21/a-dying-mall-in-concord-new-hampshire.html

 

Pizzico’s arrival did little to raise the spirits of Tony Shefer. The custom T-shirt shop he opened before last Christmas is struggling. It’s around the corner from the pretzel place next to the Sears entrance. Shefer, 46, sat on a bench outside his empty store lamenting his decision to leave Miami, where he has another location, to come 1,500 miles north to help with what he thought would be the busy season.

 

“I’ve been in a lot of malls in my life and this is the worst ever,” said Shefer, a native of Israel who sports long blond hair, a tan and a hoop in his left ear. “The economy in America isn’t so good. I know this, but not like this. There is something bad with this mall.”

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Dead mall...dead Sears:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-21/a-dying-mall-in-concord-new-hampshire.html

 

Pizzico’s arrival did little to raise the spirits of Tony Shefer. The custom T-shirt shop he opened before last Christmas is struggling. It’s around the corner from the pretzel place next to the Sears entrance. Shefer, 46, sat on a bench outside his empty store lamenting his decision to leave Miami, where he has another location, to come 1,500 miles north to help with what he thought would be the busy season.

 

“I’ve been in a lot of malls in my life and this is the worst ever,” said Shefer, a native of Israel who sports long blond hair, a tan and a hoop in his left ear. “The economy in America isn’t so good. I know this, but not like this. There is something bad with this mall.”

 

Keep in mind that journalism is all about telling stories while investing based on stories is a very dangerous undertaking. This is the 80/20 rule in real life. People talk about it all the time, but emotionally it's actually very difficult to live with as a shareholder and investor. SHLD does 27bn in revenues. It just happens that they don't seem to do a lot of it in this mall.

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I roll my eyes when I hear statements like this.  I've learned from the sidelines on many names thus far, Ruby Tuesday, Sears, JCP, Syms, Extendicare, etc.  We're comparing night and day here.  Dillards is a successful dept store, Sears is bleeding cash.  The RE can only be spun off and valuable if the EBITDAR/RENT ratio is sufficient.  Sears has been leasing to Wholefoods and Dick's etc.  So there are some good operator there.  As a whole, Sear's RE (on an AS IS basis) should not be mentioned in the same breath as a Dillard spinoff.

 

As a ~5% owner Marcato is pushing Dillards (DDS) to do a REIT spin-off for their 245 owned stores:

 

http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/origin/multivu_archive/ENR/Presentation.pdf

 

In their presentation they value DDS's owned real estate at an E/V of $6.225 billion. Based on 44.8 million owned square feet, that comes to $139 per square foot.

 

Sears owns about 66 million square feet (ex Kmart), which at the same valuation would equate to an E/V of $9.174 billion. Sears just happens to be contemplating the sale/leaseback of 200-300 stores, vs 245 for all of DDS.

 

Food for thought.

 

Damn close to the ~$80/share BB calculated a few years ago…

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I roll my eyes when I hear statements like this.  I've learned from the sidelines on many names thus far, Ruby Tuesday, Sears, JCP, Syms, Extendicare, etc.  We're comparing night and day here.  Dillards is a successful dept store, Sears is bleeding cash.  The RE can only be spun off and valuable if the EBITDAR/RENT ratio is sufficient.  Sears has been leasing to Wholefoods and Dick's etc.  So there are some good operator there.  As a whole, Sear's RE (on an AS IS basis) should not be mentioned in the same breath as a Dillard spinoff.

 

As a ~5% owner Marcato is pushing Dillards (DDS) to do a REIT spin-off for their 245 owned stores:

 

http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/origin/multivu_archive/ENR/Presentation.pdf

 

In their presentation they value DDS's owned real estate at an E/V of $6.225 billion. Based on 44.8 million owned square feet, that comes to $139 per square foot.

 

Sears owns about 66 million square feet (ex Kmart), which at the same valuation would equate to an E/V of $9.174 billion. Sears just happens to be contemplating the sale/leaseback of 200-300 stores, vs 245 for all of DDS.

 

Food for thought.

 

Damn close to the ~$80/share BB calculated a few years ago…

 

Can you please elaborate on that? I think I don't understand your reasoning here.

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Seems like a repeat of Baker Street work.

 

I am eager to see a Baker Street letter for this year. Their big call option bets will expire in January at $60-$65. After adjusting the various spinoff, I believe it is still far out of money.

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I am eager to see a Baker Street letter for this year. Their big call option bets will expire in January at $60-$65. After adjusting the various spinoff, I believe it is still far out of money.

 

They were ITM briefly two weeks ago on November 7th.  SHLD at 48 and LE at 45.  48 + (45*0.3) = $61.50.  Doesn't include the rights portion of the contract.

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No activity on the bonds yet.  The price you see is just an estimated value where Bloomberg fits the bond on the yield curve for Sears given the bond ratings, etc.

 

I see some offers out there but this bond will trade very strangely especially because there is a limited float and it did not price like a normal bond issue.  What normally happens is a bond prices at say 98 with a 100 face and then when it trades on the secondary market everyone has a reference point and can start picking out spreads to T's.  Not the case with this bond.

 

Anyone who is a fan of inefficient markets will have a field day with this bond.  It is convoluted, has low credit ratings, negative EBITDA to cover interest payments but substantial assets to cover the bonds obligations.  The bond seems like a hidden gem in the fixed-income world when you might be able to purchase it at 12%+ yields on a 5-year duration if you throw out offers that somehow get filled.

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