Sunrider Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 For what it's worth - IB shows me: SHLD DEC 2019 @ 17.95 ... no idea why they show a cost of 38.07 ... anyone know what's up with that? SHDL 8.0 12/15/19 show as market price of 92.01 (at a cost of 0.00 ... riddle me that). C. No activity on the bonds yet. The price you see is just an estimated value where Bloomberg fits the bond on the yield curve for Sears given the bond ratings, etc. I see some offers out there but this bond will trade very strangely especially because there is a limited float and it did not price like a normal bond issue. What normally happens is a bond prices at say 98 with a 100 face and then when it trades on the secondary market everyone has a reference point and can start picking out spreads to T's. Not the case with this bond. Anyone who is a fan of inefficient markets will have a field day with this bond. It is convoluted, has low credit ratings, negative EBITDA to cover interest payments but substantial assets to cover the bonds obligations. The bond seems like a hidden gem in the fixed-income world when you might be able to purchase it at 12%+ yields on a 5-year duration if you throw out offers that somehow get filled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 No activity on the bonds yet. The price you see is just an estimated value where Bloomberg fits the bond on the yield curve for Sears given the bond ratings, etc. I see some offers out there but this bond will trade very strangely especially because there is a limited float and it did not price like a normal bond issue. What normally happens is a bond prices at say 98 with a 100 face and then when it trades on the secondary market everyone has a reference point and can start picking out spreads to T's. Not the case with this bond. Anyone who is a fan of inefficient markets will have a field day with this bond. It is convoluted, has low credit ratings, negative EBITDA to cover interest payments but substantial assets to cover the bonds obligations. The bond seems like a hidden gem in the fixed-income world when you might be able to purchase it at 12%+ yields on a 5-year duration if you throw out offers that somehow get filled. It can be even better if the bond is secured.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I've heard many investors and commentators say that retailers rarely turnaround. So, I googled it and found this write-up. Thought it's interesting. http://www.kurtsalmon.com/en-us/Retail/vertical-insight/723/Assessing-Turnaround-Opportunities- It's from 2013 but seems relevant to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matson125 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Lands' End is a live situation of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Sears and Kmart Closure List 2014 http://investcorrectly.com/20141016/sears-kmart-2014-closure-list/ Sears Closing Another 109 Stores In 2015 http://seekingalpha.com/news/2145415-report-sears-holdings-plans-more-store-closures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffmori7 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 A quick check on http://www.shcrealty.com/ shows that there are 3077 operating store opportunities and 120 closed store opportunities. It appears that while Sears are closing a lot of store, they have difficulties selling, leasing, subleasing, transforming them at the same pace. So except for leases not renewed, the story is not always over once the closure or transformation is announced. we should try to keep track of those numbers over time. More than one month later..they are at 3075 operating store opportunities and 117 closed store opportunities...so it is going down..but really slowly. Operating store opportunities down to 3018, while closed are up to 119 opportunities. 7/18/2014... operating opps: 2968, closed opps: 136 On 9/05/2014, numbers are going down a bit : operating opps: 2954, closed opps: 132 A little update: operating opportunities : 2873, closed opportunities : 195, so a net change of 18 since beginning of september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Any idea when earnings are coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Any idea when earnings are coming out? Third Quarter Earnings Release The Company currently plans to release its fiscal 2014 third quarter and year-to-date financial results on December 4, 2014, before the market opens. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000119312514402036/d816405d8k.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/hudsons-bay-unveils-plan-to-cut-debt-on-saks-deal/article21722508/ HBC has made money on real estate in the past. Bought SAKS for $2.4B last year. The flagship store alone was appraised for $3.7 B for financing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thanks Luke. That's significantly later than in previous years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://online.wsj.com/articles/searss-great-holiday-retail-giveaway-heard-on-the-street-1416939717 The greatest gift of all this holiday season may be the business that Sears Holdings is ceding to other retailers. The holiday shopping season is only just getting started, but one thing seems certain: Sears will sell less than it did last year. This isn’t so much because of how its stores are performing but of how many stores it has left. As of the end of its fiscal second quarter in early August, the retailer ran 1,870 domestic Sears and Kmart stores. That was 110 fewer than it had in the fiscal fourth quarter that ended in early February. News reports show Sears having closed, or in the process of closing, more stores since the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Sears and Kmart Statement on 2014 Cyber Week Shopping Trends http://searsholdings.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=16310&item=137339 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Sears and Kmart Statement on 2014 Cyber Week Shopping Trends http://searsholdings.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=16310&item=137339 Looks like they just hit the big green button on the press-release auto-generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Sears and Kmart Statement on 2014 Cyber Week Shopping Trends http://searsholdings.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=16310&item=137339 Looks like they just hit the big green button on the press-release auto-generator. or maybe they spent time creating a web and mobile platform that's best in the industry? Click the charts on the page below http://apmblog.compuware.com/2014/11/27/black-friday-cyber-monday-2014-web-mobile-performance-live-blog/ Sears average response time is 0.834 seconds, Costco is 2nd at 1.509. They are almost twice as fast as anyone else. Look at their page weight numbers as well. I don't think its easy to have a good looking site and have low numbers unless a lot of time and effort was spent optimizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Sears and Kmart Statement on 2014 Cyber Week Shopping Trends http://searsholdings.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=16310&item=137339 Looks like they just hit the big green button on the press-release auto-generator. or maybe they spent time creating a web and mobile platform that's best in the industry? What does one have to do with the other? I was just pointing out that the press release basically says nothing. When you have nothing to say, don't publish a press release. "Sears and Kmart are encouraged by the traffic we are seeing on our online platforms", "our members are taking advantage of our hottest deals", "Thus far, our home appliances, tools, outerwear, and consumer electronics categories are seeing the most interest as members find amazing offers on brand-name products." Okay. Click the charts on the page below http://apmblog.compuware.com/2014/11/27/black-friday-cyber-monday-2014-web-mobile-performance-live-blog/ Sears average response time is 0.834 seconds, Costco is 2nd at 1.509. They are almost twice as fast as anyone else. Look at their page weight numbers as well. I don't think its easy to have a good looking site and have low numbers unless a lot of time and effort was spent optimizing. It also helps relative load times against competitors when you have a fraction of the traffic going to your site. In any case, those metrics don't mean that much because the pages simply aren't the same. If they improve against themselves to deliver the same content, that's good. But if you compare the load time of a Sears and a Costco page and they both have a different number of items and especially images on them, you'll get very different results in load times and page sizes. But maybe Costco has found that putting more stuff per page actually results in more sales, so the extra .5 seconds to load is worth it. What matters for a retailer in the end is FCF, not whether they have the fastest loading page. If that wasn't the case, they could just have a text-based website, or a single image per page. Imagine how fast that would load! But that would that be a better experience for customers and shareholders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I was just pointing out that the press release basically says nothing. When you have nothing to say, don't publish a press release. Agreed, the press release says nothing, a few terms could be substituted and any company in any industry could use it. But I think it speaks to something else. Apparently someone inside the company felt it was very important to do this, to send some sort of signal to the market or outside world. I've been involved in situations where there's a giant corporate event that no one knows about and issuing a press release is discussed. To me the fact that something was issued, something that didn't have numbers and didn't say anything is significant in itself. Maybe I've read this thread too long and am now trying to divine the tea leaves. But inside a giant company news doesn't just appear without a lot of approval, so someone somewhere thought this was necessary. What it means is unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Sears and Kmart Statement on 2014 Cyber Week Shopping Trends http://searsholdings.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=16310&item=137339 Looks like they just hit the big green button on the press-release auto-generator. or maybe they spent time creating a web and mobile platform that's best in the industry? What does one have to do with the other? I was just pointing out that the press release basically says nothing. When you have nothing to say, don't publish a press release. "Sears and Kmart are encouraged by the traffic we are seeing on our online platforms", "our members are taking advantage of our hottest deals", "Thus far, our home appliances, tools, outerwear, and consumer electronics categories are seeing the most interest as members find amazing offers on brand-name products." Okay. Click the charts on the page below http://apmblog.compuware.com/2014/11/27/black-friday-cyber-monday-2014-web-mobile-performance-live-blog/ Sears average response time is 0.834 seconds, Costco is 2nd at 1.509. They are almost twice as fast as anyone else. Look at their page weight numbers as well. I don't think its easy to have a good looking site and have low numbers unless a lot of time and effort was spent optimizing. It also helps relative load times against competitors when you have a fraction of the traffic going to your site. In any case, those metrics don't mean that much because the pages simply aren't the same. If they improve against themselves to deliver the same content, that's good. But if you compare the load time of a Sears and a Costco page and they both have a different number of items and especially images on them, you'll get very different results in load times and page sizes. But maybe Costco has found that putting more stuff per page actually results in more sales, so the extra .5 seconds to load is worth it. What matters for a retailer in the end is FCF, not whether they have the fastest loading page. If that wasn't the case, they could just have a text-based website, or a single image per page. Imagine how fast that would load! But that would that be a better experience for customers and shareholders? The press release says things if you bother to read it properly. It also seems you have not been to the Sears and Costco websites to see whose homepage has more content. So maybe next time you comment you spend a few minutes actually checking things first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I was just pointing out that the press release basically says nothing. When you have nothing to say, don't publish a press release. Agreed, the press release says nothing, a few terms could be substituted and any company in any industry could use it. But I think it speaks to something else. Apparently someone inside the company felt it was very important to do this, to send some sort of signal to the market or outside world. I've been involved in situations where there's a giant corporate event that no one knows about and issuing a press release is discussed. To me the fact that something was issued, something that didn't have numbers and didn't say anything is significant in itself. Maybe I've read this thread too long and am now trying to divine the tea leaves. But inside a giant company news doesn't just appear without a lot of approval, so someone somewhere thought this was necessary. What it means is unknown. So both of you don't think the following is important? 1. saw a significant increase in mobile site visits and member engagements on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and through the weekend. 2. Multichannel transactions now represent a majority of our overall transactions. 3. I also think they are saying don't just look at Black Friday/Cyber Monday numbers. They didn't focus heavily on 2 days but spread out their deals/discounts over the whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Oh no, I restarted the dormant sears thread by accident. Woe me :-[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Oh no, I restarted the dormant sears thread by accident. Woe me :-[ Earnings release and recorded call are tomorrow morning, so it's not surprising people want to talk about the big SHLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I was just pointing out that the press release basically says nothing. When you have nothing to say, don't publish a press release. Agreed, the press release says nothing, a few terms could be substituted and any company in any industry could use it. But I think it speaks to something else. Apparently someone inside the company felt it was very important to do this, to send some sort of signal to the market or outside world. I've been involved in situations where there's a giant corporate event that no one knows about and issuing a press release is discussed. To me the fact that something was issued, something that didn't have numbers and didn't say anything is significant in itself. Maybe I've read this thread too long and am now trying to divine the tea leaves. But inside a giant company news doesn't just appear without a lot of approval, so someone somewhere thought this was necessary. What it means is unknown. I agree that it can be a signal. Or it can be the PR department just keeping busy and justifying their jobs. Unless they really telegraph something between the lines, you can usually only know after the fact, and that's not necessarily very useful. I've noticed that companies in trouble (or perceived to be in trouble, at least) tend to be more active with the press release treadmill. So both of you don't think the following is important? 1. saw a significant increase in mobile site visits and member engagements on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and through the weekend. 2. Multichannel transactions now represent a majority of our overall transactions. 3. I also think they are saying don't just look at Black Friday/Cyber Monday numbers. They didn't focus heavily on 2 days but spread out their deals/discounts over the whole week. What big retailer isn't seeing "significant increase in mobile site visits and member engagements on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and through the weekend", isn't seeing big increases in multichannel transactions (majority or not -- lots of factors influence this, like where you're starting from, and it isn't good or bad in itself), and isn't spreading the sales over more than just those days lately to try to milk out the buying frenzy? These are all industry-wide trends (fast growth of mobile, multichannel, longer sales periods). At least if they had talked about sales rather than the much softer "engagement" and "visits"... If this was 1999 they'd have used "eyeballs". And considering how much Sears seems to spends on buying traffic with "points" and rewards and the low base from which they are starting online, anything other than strong growth would be the surprise. Most of their competitors aren't as aggressive on that front (time will tell if that's a mistake or not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Significant increase, like Liberty said it's an industry trend. Saw an article or quote recently that said 40% of Christmas shopping will be online this year. This has to be put in context. If all retailers see mobile and online increase 30% and Sears sees it increase 10% what does that mean? Is it still good? The companies I have the most faith in are the ones who aren't dumping news every two days. Do you see Costco releasing stuff like this? To me this reads like Sears saying "hey marketplace, we're still relevant, we're still here. And guess what, our webpage is FAST!!" You mentioned Costco, they don't advertise yet people know they exist and sales are great. I went to their investor relations page they release SEC mandated items and a monthly sales report. The sales report is extremely boiler plate with tangible numbers. On Costco again, I'm not sure a website matters. Theirs sucks and sales are great, revenue barely dipped during the financial crisis. When the world is moving digital Costco is still a mad house on weekends. I'd venture they sell more big TVs and appliances in a weekend than Sears does in a week. Costco's model shows that following the herd and being all digital isn't a panacea. Consumers will endure a lot of pain points/holdups/bad customer service if they want something. Case in point look at the people who wait in line for Apple products. When Apple releases a new product they take their entire website offline for a day, that's lunacy, yet it works. Why? Because consumers want iPhones so badly. People will stand in horribly long lines at Costco to checkout, why? Great prices. Same with Wal-mart, Target etc. If you have a great product consumers will put up with crap. The problem is Sears has neglected their product. This could be intentional as many would posit on here. But if it is why even have a retail store open, why care about retail or retail numbers, or website visits if it's intentionally in decline? I don't understand the paradox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 <<You mentioned Costco, they don't advertise yet people know they exist and sales are great. I went to their investor relations page they release SEC mandated items and a monthly sales report. The sales report is extremely boiler plate with tangible numbers. >> Costco's model is membership, which Sears has no way yet of getting to that. Costco advertises to members and they do it both by paper and by email. I get their emails every week for online specials etc. Costco's not just about great prices; there is an implicit trust/goodwill about what they stand for, how they negotiate for members, and how they pass on those savings to members. It's quite amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Costco's model is membership, which Sears has no way yet of getting to that. Costco advertises to members and they do it both by paper and by email. I get their emails every week for online specials etc. Costco's not just about great prices; there is an implicit trust/goodwill about what they stand for, how they negotiate for members, and how they pass on those savings to members. It's quite amazing. That model is beautiful because a email newsletter and direct mail is a lot less expensive than mass advertising (TV, print, radio) and its probably way more effective per dollar spent because the only people who receive your stuff have already expressed enough interest in you to pay money for the privilege of shopping in your store. It's easy to see why Munger likes the business model so much. Among retailers, I still prefer QVC's model, though ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 <<Among retailers, I still prefer QVC's model, though ;)>> yes, that's the retail equivalent of Vegas or crack cocaine! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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