Liberty Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 <<Among retailers, I still prefer QVC's model, though ;)>> yes, that's the retail equivalent of Vegas or crack cocaine! :) Ha, yes! More like online gambling, even, since you don't even have to build and operate all those expensive casinos ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Alright, in last year's third quarter SHLD's cash burn was $1.042 billion. What's the over/under for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Alright, in last year's third quarter SHLD's cash burn was $1.042 billion. What's the over/under for this year? Q2) What's the over under on number of posts related to what the definition of 'cash burn' is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Alright, in last year's third quarter SHLD's cash burn was $1.042 billion. What's the over/under for this year? Q2) What's the over under on number of posts related to what the definition of 'cash burn' is? Cash burn = negative free cash flow = cash flow from operating activities less capital expenditures (let's stick with standard textbook definitions here... you'll get plenty of other made-up metrics in the quarterly powerpoint presentation they post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Apologies to all that thought my last post wasn't funny....it was meant to be funny. Ok, I'll take the over (meaning less negative...aka bull case). Maybe -1.0 Billion instead of -1.042. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 My guess is that it will be a mixed bag (over which we will argue wether it's positive or negative ;)). As interest rates went down YOY SHLD will have to make adjustments to their pension liabilities, and, in turn, make higher contributions. Since contributions to those liabilities are regarded as cash burn by most people this will offset a lessening of negative cash flows from operations (= my guess). For me, this would be a very good sign but I guess it wouldn't be for peridotcapital, because the overall "cash burn rate" would remain constant. Market reactions will largely depend on whether there is a sign of operations recovering and further information with regard to the RE transaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Alright, in last year's third quarter SHLD's cash burn was $1.042 billion. What's the over/under for this year? Q2) What's the over under on number of posts related to what the definition of 'cash burn' is? Cash burn = negative free cash flow = cash flow from operating activities less capital expenditures (let's stick with standard textbook definitions here... you'll get plenty of other made-up metrics in the quarterly powerpoint presentation they post) in the words of Bono, "more than a lot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Alright, in last year's third quarter SHLD's cash burn was $1.042 billion. What's the over/under for this year? Q3: CFO -1195 CapEx -76 FCF -1271 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vish_ram Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Gross margin 22.2% at a 10 year low. Store count decrease is not translating to improvement in performance. Sears is looking like a weight lifting snowman in a hot sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Gross margin 22.2% at a 10 year low. Store count decrease is not translating to improvement in performance. Sears is looking like a weight lifting snowman in a hot sun. Vish_ram, how many of those stores were closed early in the Q3 period or prior? I wouldn't expect store closures for 2014 to really hit the bottom-line until Q1 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://searsholdings.com/invest/docs/shc_q3_2014_earnings_call_transcript.pdf The penultimate paragraph is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/12/04/sears-positives-undermined-by-1-billion-of-negative-cash-flow-credit-suisse-says/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo And of course Gary with his standard release - he is the expert on SHLD that all media seem to go to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://searsholdings.com/invest/docs/shc_q3_2014_earnings_call_transcript.pdf The penultimate paragraph is interesting. I can't imagine that they'd go out and start acquiring companies without first righting the ship further. I mean, the capital raises are going towards funding various cash needs for the operating business, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Gross margin 22.2% at a 10 year low. Store count decrease is not translating to improvement in performance. Sears is looking like a weight lifting snowman in a hot sun. Vish_ram, how many of those stores were closed early in the Q3 period or prior? I wouldn't expect store closures for 2014 to really hit the bottom-line until Q1 2015. Here is from the earnings transcript: "I mentioned earlier, we have announced plans to close about 235 underperforming stores in 2014, having closed about 129 to date. In fiscal 2013, these stores generated almost $1.9 billion in sales; however, they produced an EBITDA loss of about $50 million. By closing these locations, we would expect to generate approximately $50 million of incremental EBITDA on an annualized basis by avoiding the losses they currently produce. Furthermore, closing these locations is expected to reduce our working capital requirements by about $300 million in 2014." As you can see, closing stores alone would not make much difference in bottom line. As Eddie went on to say, it will make difference when they retain those customers (and future sales) through SYW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vish_ram Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Gross margin 22.2% at a 10 year low. Store count decrease is not translating to improvement in performance. Sears is looking like a weight lifting snowman in a hot sun. Vish_ram, how many of those stores were closed early in the Q3 period or prior? I wouldn't expect store closures for 2014 to really hit the bottom-line until Q1 2015. sorry, I was referring to the closures that they've done in past years. My thesis is that we are witnessing diseconomies of scale. The first symptom is the gross margin %, next is operating margin %. They are on a constant decline. The gross margin decline may point to the loss of volume discounts (as sales shrinks) and op margin % decline may point to failure to cut costs at same rate of sales decline (negative leverage). An example could be a warehouse that serves 5 locations. you may shut down 1, but warehouse operating expenses may remain the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Sears Reports Wider Loss but Better Liquidity Retailer Continues to Dismantle Itself, Close Stores as It Tries to Shore Up Finances http://online.wsj.com/articles/sears-loss-widens-but-tops-wall-street-expectations-1417692814 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://searsholdings.com/invest/docs/shc_q3_2014_earnings_call_transcript.pdf The penultimate paragraph is interesting. What on earth? Acquisitions? I read that as being trained on the retail area though, don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://searsholdings.com/invest/docs/shc_q3_2014_earnings_call_transcript.pdf The penultimate paragraph is interesting. What on earth? Acquisitions? I read that as being trained on the retail area though, don't you? This is nothing new. He has mentioned it previously. From the call this past May... "These initiatives, when coupled with executing on the profitability framework I just described, will position us to play offense, enable us to continue to seek opportunities to grow, and invest in our business through acquisitions and other strategic relationships. As I indicated earlier, as changes occur in and around retail, we intend to be in the mix focused on investments and acquisitions that accelerate and improve our transformation. Again, we are focused on making a profit, and we expect to continue to focus on our strengths, including increased focused on our best members, best stores, and best categories." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 "On December 3, 2014, Kunal S. Kamlani, formerly President and Chief Operating Officer of Prestige Cruise Holdings, Inc., was elected to the Board of Directors..." http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000118143114038050/rrd419884.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerBBQ Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Another Berkowitz Addition? http://issuu.com/fuea/docs/ar2013-102913/1%20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Another Berkowitz Addition? http://issuu.com/fuea/docs/ar2013-102913/1%20 This looks like SPAM. Reported to moderator. Please correct me if I'm wrong, BeerBBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerBBQ Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Not Spam Might be a stretch, but: Prestige Holdings is in Miami, Kamlani's linkedin page has him in Miami https://www.linkedin.com/pub/kunal-s-kamlani/1a/68/5ba Fairholme foundation is large donor to Gulliver Schools A Kunal Kamlani is also listed as a donor Kunal is the 8th director. If he was added because of Berkowitz, that would mean at least 2 out of the 8 (25%) are from Berkowitz which also coincides with his share ownership percentage of 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Not Spam Might be a stretch, but: Prestige Holdings is in Miami, Kamlani's linkedin page has him in Miami https://www.linkedin.com/pub/kunal-s-kamlani/1a/68/5ba Fairholme foundation is large donor to Gulliver Schools A Kunal Kamlani is also listed as a donor Kunal is the 8th director. If he was added because of Berkowitz, that would mean at least 2 out of the 8 (25%) are from Berkowitz which also coincides with his share ownership percentage of 25%. Sorry, my mistake. I didn't see the connection. I'll let the moderator know. Thanks for speaking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke 532 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Alright, in last year's third quarter SHLD's cash burn was $1.042 billion. What's the over/under for this year? Q2) What's the over under on number of posts related to what the definition of 'cash burn' is? :) Defining ‘Cash Flow’ Burn http://blog.searsholdings.com/shc-updates/defining-cash-flow-burn/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+SHCSpeaks+%28SHC+Speaks%29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tooskinneejs Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Per the latest 10-Q: -Stockholders’ equity declined 95% from $2.3 billion to $126 million in the last year. -Free cash flow was negative $2.1 billion for the last nine months. -Gross margins dropped from 24.5% to 22.4%. -The company has $2.2 billion of debt due in the next 12 months but only $326 million of cash on hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now