BargainValueHunter Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 I can't figure out why Lampert continues to try to compete with Costco, Wal-mart, Target, Home Depot and a few other far, far stronger competitors than Sears/ Kmart. Its like the real estate is an art collection and the owner is selling the collection off piece by piece to fund his budding rap career. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20ppy Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 This is such a misunderstood stock ! Retail will succeed or fail, stock will be worth x-bagger. Jul 2, 2015 LAMPERT EDWARD S. Officer 2,119,706 Indirect Purchase Actual shares purchased reported in 13D: 2,521,298 of such shares would be distributed to RBS (and thereafter Mr. Lampert) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 SHLD calls are essentially for free today. Strikes me as crazy that people pay 90% vol for the 2019 warrants while they offer you 35% vol for jan 2017 calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted July 10, 2015 Share Posted July 10, 2015 SHLD calls are essentially for free today. Strikes me as crazy that people pay 90% vol for the 2019 warrants while they offer you 35% vol for jan 2017 calls. Crazy indeed. It was opposite a few month ago when warrants started to trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ap1234 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Ni-co, can you please elaborate on what you mean by the "calls are essentially for free today." I would be very interested to hear your thoughts on this. I own SHLD common and think that the market may have misunderstood/overreacted to the Seritage REIT rights offering. I have never used options before but am considering using options to add to my SHLD position. Which particular options are you looking at and how do you think about the relative valuation between the options that are "free today" and the common stock at current levels? Any color on the implied valuation of the options versus the common stock would be very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 Same question here. I think he means free in a sense that u can bot leverage cheaply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Yes, this is what I meant – especially compared to the volatility of the stock, which options are normally priced of (according to some variant of the Black/Scholes option pricing model). The SHLD situation has more or less a bimodal outcome: In my opinion, you're either going to see a penny stock within a few years or a multi-bagger (not a double, I guess 5x or more). Now, think about this for a moment. Last Friday, investing $0.35 bought me the right to receive one SHLD share for $50 on 20 Jan 2017. Sure, I don't get the upside from $24 to $50 but I get exactly the same upside from $50 onwards as I do buying the stock outright. At this moment, I hugely prefer investing say, $1050 for the right to receive 3000 SHLD shares for $50 in January 2017 than going into the market and paying $70K for 3000 shares with a very similar up- and downside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Now, think about this for a moment. Last Friday, investing $0.35 bought me the right to receive one SHLD share for $50 on 20 Jan 2017. I am looking at calls but at a much lower strike price than $50. How did you get that price, That's the bid price. The spread for me is a lot higher. The 2017 - $50 calls ask price was always over $1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Now, think about this for a moment. Last Friday, investing $0.35 bought me the right to receive one SHLD share for $50 on 20 Jan 2017. I am looking at calls but at a much lower strike price than $50. How did you get that price, That's the bid price. The spread for me is a lot higher. The 2017 - $50 calls ask price was always over $1. put in a bid :) mine filled for .3 this morning ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor82 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Shares short are up to just below 14 million now, highest since 11/28/14 and not far from the 15.6 million short at the time of Baker Streets report. The float is smaller since then too. Anyone have "JCP genius" Ackmans comments today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Shares short are up to just below 14 million now, highest since 11/28/14 and not far from the 15.6 million short at the time of Baker Streets report. The float is smaller since then too. Anyone have "JCP genius" Ackmans comments today? He made the obvious points: that most of the valuable assets have been spun off already, and that even when you have others that remain at SRC when you are burning $1-2B of cash annually it erodes that value awfully quickly. He clearly had looked at the situation even though they were talking about REIT spins at other companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor82 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Thank you peridot. To me, they're obvious from a bearish perspective, but one must assume that the burn rate in the future will equal the past, which I don't believe accounts for changes made at the company. I appreciate the summary of his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Thank you peridot. To me, they're obvious from a bearish perspective, but one must assume that the burn rate in the future will equal the past, which I don't believe accounts for changes made at the company. I appreciate the summary of his thoughts. Agreed, I don't think it would be fair to assume $1B of annual cash burn over the long-term (and I'm bearish). The problem is that the remaining asset base at SHLD is getting thin outside of the retail operations (400 owned properties plus the KCD brands is the bulk of it), so if Eddie can't get the retail to FCF positive on a sustainable basis, the $6B+ of obligations is a tall mountain to climb. And that's even if you only assume another $1-2B of cumulative cash burn on the retail side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 No guidance no five-year plan. ..just trust. Tough to put money in... Is shopyourway a well known brand in the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scudbucket Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Do you believe Lampert's incentives are aligned with shareholders? Do you believe he will be rational about those incentives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted July 16, 2015 Author Share Posted July 16, 2015 Do you believe Lampert's incentives are aligned with shareholders? Do you believe he will be rational about those incentives? Yes, but the big question is do you think shopyourway strategy will work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Do you believe Lampert's incentives are aligned with shareholders? Do you believe he will be rational about those incentives? He has been incentivized like this since 2005 and the results have been horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dingo Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 http://www.snl.com/Cache/c30312221.html Citadel owns over 7% of SRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vish_ram Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 What is crazy about SHLD saga is that Lampert could have continued in his hedge fund ways and by now managed $100 billion AUM. Now all he has managed to do was to delay the inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eye4Valu Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I wish SRG had been spun out rather than rights offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scudbucket Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Has anyone done any work on MetaScale? Anyone ever hear of revenue figures? On their LinkedIn page, they have 51-200 employees. Looking at past employees, specifically sales employees, their reviews were positive from who I believe are customers, so there is some level of sales. There are four reviews on GlassDoor, three positive, but two follow a very negative one. I can never find any numbers to put to the business, though. And I don't really have any idea how to back into its profitability. It could be a $10MM or a $100MM business. Who knows. Not me. Any help is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 Somehow I missed that S&P got slightly more positive on SHLD's creditworthiness. The moves come as S&P believes these notes have stronger recovery prospects than previously estimated, thanks largely to an increase in the value of Sears’ real estate portfolio, i.e. the stores it will still own after the real estate investment trust transaction closes. The company’s well known brands like Kenmore, Craftsman, and Diehard also factor into S&P’s ratings. http://m.barrons.com/articles/BL-INCOMB-7001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 I wish SRG had been spun out rather than rights offer. This is why I ended up getting out of Sears. I believed in the value of the real estate as the floor and bought in anticipation of a retail turnaround OR monetizing the assets. Unfortunately, it became clear that Lampert was monetizing shareholders. I wasn't willing to commit anymore money to maintaining the ownership interest I already should have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Has anyone done any work on MetaScale? Anyone ever hear of revenue figures? On their LinkedIn page, they have 51-200 employees. Looking at past employees, specifically sales employees, their reviews were positive from who I believe are customers, so there is some level of sales. There are four reviews on GlassDoor, three positive, but two follow a very negative one. I can never find any numbers to put to the business, though. And I don't really have any idea how to back into its profitability. It could be a $10MM or a $100MM business. Who knows. Not me. Any help is appreciated. Are you sure it can compete with AWS and Windows Azure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted July 26, 2015 Share Posted July 26, 2015 Has anyone done any work on MetaScale? Anyone ever hear of revenue figures? On their LinkedIn page, they have 51-200 employees. Looking at past employees, specifically sales employees, their reviews were positive from who I believe are customers, so there is some level of sales. There are four reviews on GlassDoor, three positive, but two follow a very negative one. I can never find any numbers to put to the business, though. And I don't really have any idea how to back into its profitability. It could be a $10MM or a $100MM business. Who knows. Not me. Any help is appreciated. Are you sure it can compete with AWS and Windows Azure? I know very little about this but I thought Metascale would complement AWS and Azure. Amazon Web Services have a hadoop platform something called EMR. http://docs.aws.amazon.com/ElasticMapReduce/latest/DeveloperGuide/emr-what-is-emr.html Metascale says they work with all platforms and list Cloudera and Hortonworks which are both Hadoop platforms and I believe compete with Amazon EMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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