ni-co Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Good write-up: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3505146-sears-holdings-a-remake-on-the-fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 By the way, the 2019 notes are above par again. I'm going to sell the ones I recently purchased for a 15% gain and wait for them to trade back below 90 to repurchase. The yield changes on those bonds are silly but volatile enough to make trading them worth it, especially with an 8% coupon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Funny to see this thread die out lately. Seems like it has frustrated or made everyone numb to the swings back and forth. I notice the SRAC bonds are trading at very high prices. They have moved from low 50's to low 70's. Maybe just the yield curve flattening out after the 2018 tender as spreads kind of track that 6% 2018 yield. That is a possibility. So we have the bonds trading at prices we haven't seen since pre-rights offering of Seritage (April-ish) but the stock is nearly half the price. Something doesn't seem right here. Especially since Sears is now the most levered we have ever seen it with relatively few assets left to cover any future losses. Has anyone else looked into the big drop in SSS around the rights offering? It seems like the result of massive cuts in advertising spending and a focus away from electronics. I'm trying to figure out whether this this a) temporary, b) fixable, and/or c) killing off unprofitable sales. If so, it may be sort of misleading to view the stock as fundamentally impaired because of extrapolating those trends which seem to have accelerated on the downside. I guess my point is, the bonds might be forecasting that the turnaround is a lot less risky than the stock is pricing. Maybe the bond pricing is inefficient as well but I would like to hear someone else's view on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 That would be my guess as well, but, it was interesting that ESL picked up close to $22 mil in shares in the last month or so - range $20-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
namo Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 By the way, the 2019 notes are above par again. I'm going to sell the ones I recently purchased for a 15% gain and wait for them to trade back below 90 to repurchase. The yield changes on those bonds are silly but volatile enough to make trading them worth it, especially with an 8% coupon. I've been tempted to do that, but I'm not certain that bonds will go back down so far. With the tender for the 2019 bond in August, the 2018 bonds have gained in seniority... SHLD's balance sheet might look better on paper to some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor82 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Transformation, not turnaround. I emphasize the difference in terminology because I get a lot more nervous thinking of this as a turnaround, as though Eddie wants to be JCP and do the same thing in perpetuity, just a little better than in the past. I agree with Eddie that the USA is over-retailed and he has no intention of maintaining the same sales or infrastructure. It's a purposeful, orderly shrinkage and the "new" SHLD is never going to look anything like the old retailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eddie continues going to town buying up stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matson125 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's almost comical, just as soon as Fairholme ceases their monthly buying ESL picks up right where they left off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Against the crowd Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The fact that Eddie redeemed 2018 bonds shows that he is very optimistic about the future of SHLD and hence does not needs all the cash from Seritage spin-off to fund the SHLD transformation. Last 4 qtrs have been positive in EBITDA improvement. Is that sustainable will be known very soon in November when Q3 results are out. I am personally not worried about SSS as long as he keeps improving EBITDA and Gross Margin performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eddie has been buying up quite a bit of shares... Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 He needed to redeem those bonds regardless. Part of the convenants on the bond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Against the crowd Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I saw similar behavior from Eddie when he was building his stake in Autonation. When the whole world was running away from it....he was quietly acquiring Autonation. When Autonation plummeted to $15 dollar range he was constantly buying these shares.Not saying that Autonation and SHLD are similar type of investments but Eddie's looks pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuhndan Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I wrote the attached Seeking Alpha article on Eddie Lampert's recent Sears shares purchases. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3553456-what-does-eddie-lampert-know-that-we-dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20ppy Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 http://www.geekwire.com/2015/sears-acquires-wallyhome-sensor-technology-from-startup-snupi-creates-second-seattle-office/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elevensecsrt4 Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 I sold most of my holdings in the REIT announcement pop months back. I have kept a token share amount, as I would prefer spinoff as opposed to the rights offerings. Due to complications with my brokers in holding rights etc. I'm also not crazy over the "monetizing shareholders" angle either. Although I understand shld needed cash. Regardless I enjoy following shld and ESL actions. Him making open market purchases obviously is interesting. I would love to see ESL's investment partnerships end altogether. Kuhndan. Anyway to verify that he has less than 10 investors left in his partnerships as mentioned in your article ? A price of Low - mid 20's seems like a good risk Reward with ESL making open market purchases to boot. In a stock as volatile as shld can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Hey all: Sears is making a silly move in the "interwebs"! I sell stuff on Ebay. Frequently I will sell mid-range computer processors. These gizmos sell for between $300-$400 a piece. Ebay, in a move to get ever more money (and harm their sellers) will sell ads that show prospective buyers similar items from other websites that compete with my stuff. Frequently, "Sears Marketplace" will buy these ads and sell items that compete with my offered items on Ebay. Sear's problem is that the price they offer for their items is simply silly. Often, their price will 3X what I am charging. Thus my computer processor will be $1,200 at Sears. Sears will also offer lower end pieces at similar markups. NOBODY is going to say, "That lower end processor looks like a good deal for only $600 ($200 more than my superior one). I think I will buy that from Sears instead!" I will also sell silver & gold coins. Same thing. End result is that Sears is simply squandering advertising money. No rational buyer would purchase this stuff. I suspect that I am not the only seller this happens to. How much $$$$$$$ is Sears simply throwing away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Hey all: Sears is making a silly move in the "interwebs"! I sell stuff on Ebay. Frequently I will sell mid-range computer processors. These gizmos sell for between $300-$400 a piece. Ebay, in a move to get ever more money (and harm their sellers) will sell ads that show prospective buyers similar items from other websites that compete with my stuff. Frequently, "Sears Marketplace" will buy these ads and sell items that compete with my offered items on Ebay. Sear's problem is that the price they offer for their items is simply silly. Often, their price will 3X what I am charging. Thus my computer processor will be $1,200 at Sears. Sears will also offer lower end pieces at similar markups. NOBODY is going to say, "That lower end processor looks like a good deal for only $600 ($200 more than my superior one). I think I will buy that from Sears instead!" I will also sell silver & gold coins. Same thing. End result is that Sears is simply squandering advertising money. No rational buyer would purchase this stuff. I suspect that I am not the only seller this happens to. How much $$$$$$$ is Sears simply throwing away? Sears doesn't really sell many CPU's (if any). It also doesn't sell coins. I believe those are marketplace items. The prices are set by other sellers. The advertising match is done on the product not on the price. IT would make no sense to consider price since prices on ebay can be as low as 1 cent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Hey all: Sears is making a silly move in the "interwebs"! I sell stuff on Ebay. Frequently I will sell mid-range computer processors. These gizmos sell for between $300-$400 a piece. Ebay, in a move to get ever more money (and harm their sellers) will sell ads that show prospective buyers similar items from other websites that compete with my stuff. Frequently, "Sears Marketplace" will buy these ads and sell items that compete with my offered items on Ebay. Sear's problem is that the price they offer for their items is simply silly. Often, their price will 3X what I am charging. Thus my computer processor will be $1,200 at Sears. Sears will also offer lower end pieces at similar markups. NOBODY is going to say, "That lower end processor looks like a good deal for only $600 ($200 more than my superior one). I think I will buy that from Sears instead!" I will also sell silver & gold coins. Same thing. End result is that Sears is simply squandering advertising money. No rational buyer would purchase this stuff. I suspect that I am not the only seller this happens to. How much $$$$$$$ is Sears simply throwing away? Sears doesn't really sell many CPU's (if any). It also doesn't sell coins. I believe those are marketplace items. The prices are set by other sellers. The advertising match is done on the product not on the price. IT would make no sense to consider price since prices on ebay can be as low as 1 cent. No, prices on Ebay are entirely valid. 98%+ of my listings are "buy it now", which is a fixed price. If the buyer likes it, they pay it. I still use auctions for very in demand items or unique/unusual items. If a buyer is looking at purchasing this processor, there are maybe a dozen sellers selling a set price. As to "Sears Marketplace", something is seriously wrong...I suspect that Sears is somehow paying Ebay for the banner ads. My guess is that they are paying some fee for 1,000 insertions. They then also probably pay extra every time somebody "clicks through" and is routed to their website. I would further postulate that Sears is trying to drive traffic to their marketplace so that their sellers make sales. If the Sears Marketplace sellers make sales, then Sears gets a cut. The problem though is that NOBODY (no rational buyer) is buying these particular items from Sears marketplace. Every listing on Sears Marketplace is significantly higher than prices on Ebay. Sometimes the prices are "silly" in how much higher they are. I suspect that Sears Marketplace sellers have a deal where they can list items for free OR at a very low rate. They figure "why not", I'll price the items very high. If on the off chance one sells, I'll make significant money. If not, nothing much lost. The end result is that Sears Marketplace is the loser. SHLD corporate desperately needs to pay attention to their stores and not be wasting precious capital on some harebrained scheme like this. This is reason # 38 of 1,095 that SHLD is losing money, market share, and stock is in the tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 ATTENTION K-MART SHOPPERS THERE IS A BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL.. Rocking out to some 1980s Kmart radio today: http://boingboing.net/2015/10/11/this-guy-uploaded-a-collection.html All of the monthly music from Kmart stores from 1989-1992. Every few minutes an interruption for a store commercial. https://archive.org/details/attentionkmartshoppers&tab=about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
namo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The warrant strike has been adjusted down to 25.686 $ after the spin-off; also, it grants 1.1 stock instead of 1 before (so you pay 28.41 $ for the 1.1 stock: the total proceeds to SHLD are the same). I think it's "expensive" in part because the float is reduced. Berkowitz has been buying a lot of it in recent months; the borrow is really expensive (around 26% when I last checked - I'm lending my warrants via IB). If you believe in BB's thesis, that SHLD's intrinsic value is actually > 80 $, then the warrant can provide higher return than the stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 With everyone moving on to VRX, what's going on with SHLD these days? The stock price sure isn't doing well but what about the business side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 They're testing their theory that higher prices will produce bigger margins, albeit lower same store sales. Over the last twelve months it has improved their Adjusted EBITDA, but not to a level where the company is profitable. They are closing, or downsizing, unprofitable stores in hopes this will reduce losses. That's all the insight I have. Others probably have more and better insight into SHLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhacker Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Their bonds have been paying on the regular... near term SRAC now at par.... long term SRAC at $0.75. Eddie seems to like common, but I'm not sure... I'll stick with the bonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor82 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Some SHLD bonds are trading above par now. I'll recall my experience with ELNK. Over a 2-year period, the bonds never budged, staying well over par. The stock market (in all of its "wisdom") traded ELNK down from around $7 to just over $3. The bonds stayed the same the whole time. Then, suddenly over a 6-month period in a straight line, the stock marched back to new highs over $9 as they continued delivering on their transition to IT services from the traditional fixed line business of old. I guess the point being that credit tends to be "smarter" and may lead the stock higher as the market gives at least some credit to their future (timing unknown). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Some SHLD bonds are trading above par now. I'll recall my experience with ELNK. Over a 2-year period, the bonds never budged, staying well over par. The stock market (in all of its "wisdom") traded ELNK down from around $7 to just over $3. The bonds stayed the same the whole time. Then, suddenly over a 6-month period in a straight line, the stock marched back to new highs over $9 as they continued delivering on their transition to IT services from the traditional fixed line business of old. I guess the point being that credit tends to be "smarter" and may lead the stock higher as the market gives at least some credit to their future (timing unknown). Credit markets are smarter, or is it just that equity values are a hell of a lot less certain? Credit markets didn't look very smart in 2008! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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