muscleman Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 For those of you who still care, the shopping experience at sears.com is really a piece of shit. I can't even click the sign in button and go through that properly. >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957417002864/xslF345X03/p7440612.xml folks, Berkie is still buying. Some folks think he is trying to see if he can top Ackman's investment in VRX as the best losing trade of the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walt373 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Remember Baker Street? Apparently they like to run 1-stock portfolios. First SHLD then WAC. Results have been... disappointing... https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2017/03/16/the-34-year-old-hedge-fund-manager-who-bet-everything-on-a-stock-that-tanked/#594e505f16fb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhacker Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 BeerBBQ. Ben, Can you elaborate on why you think this is the case and if true, what that would mean in a BK scenario? (or point me to the thread if discussed already) Thanks for any insights. It's back in the thread. I think Scott Hall has a bunch of nice links if you read his posts. Basically, it's covered in the 2005 10-k IIRC. As to what SRAC vs. '19 holdco debt would do in Ch 11 filing... I think it would be irrelevant, they would both get the same recovery in my mind, likely deminimis if anything. I don't mean to argue that SRAC should trade at a premium above the holdco notes, only that there shouldn't be a giant discount. Market pricing in Sears debt seems to be more rational now. '19's have come way down while SRAC '17's have risen, and longer term notes have held steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 i went to the Alderwood mall today in north Seattle. Sears has never been so crowded. I wondered around for an hour and felt sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Sears warns of 'going concern' doubts http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sears-going-concern-idUSKBN16S2WG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueorama Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 links similar to MrB's http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2017/03/21/sears-says-substantial-doubt-can-stay-business/99479726/?AID=10366155&PID=361116&SID=ebs2d99170d4172d1490191480275sbe http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/22/news/companies/sears-kmart-future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eye4Valu Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Fairholme was buying shares last week. Is that language that the auditors threw in for CYA/liability purposes. If Sears cannot sell assets and liquidates, then perhaps Fairholme sees what the NAV truly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueVancouver Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 If shorting wasnt such an in demand and sold out proposition on sears, everyone would be doing it. This company is headed to bankruptcy as we've all know for many years - it's just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tooskinneejs Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Public companies are now required to evaluate their ability to continue as a going concern (i.e., keep operating). In the past, only the auditors had to make such an assessment. If a public company evaluates their ability to continue as a going concern and concludes there is 'substantial doubt,' then they need to evaluate whether there are factors that mitigate that doubt (i.e., we can sell assets, raise capital, etc.) and evaluate the likelihood of those mitigating factors happening. In Sears' case, they concluded there was substantial doubt and also concluded there were mitigating factors that were likely to occur. Interestingly, the auditors were silent in their audit report, which means they agreed the substantial doubt was alleviated. I previously predicted 2016 would be the end. I was wrong. But it seems to be only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerBBQ Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Good article re: going concern disclosure http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-sears-but-not-its-auditor-gave-a-going-concern-warning-2017-03-22?mod=mw_share_twitter Sears Speaks re: disclosure vs. media reporting on it http://blog.searsholdings.com/shc-updates/sears-holdings-remains-focused-on-long-term-profitability/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 got more 2017s at 25% yield. ;) Good article re: going concern disclosure http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-sears-but-not-its-auditor-gave-a-going-concern-warning-2017-03-22?mod=mw_share_twitter Sears Speaks re: disclosure vs. media reporting on it http://blog.searsholdings.com/shc-updates/sears-holdings-remains-focused-on-long-term-profitability/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 got more 2017s at 25% yield. ;) Good article re: going concern disclosure http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-sears-but-not-its-auditor-gave-a-going-concern-warning-2017-03-22?mod=mw_share_twitter Sears Speaks re: disclosure vs. media reporting on it http://blog.searsholdings.com/shc-updates/sears-holdings-remains-focused-on-long-term-profitability/ Nice! I sold more puts @ 5 for a 10% yield through June. I imagine they'll make it at least that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerBBQ Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Interesting that the Chairman's Letter isn't out yet. https://searsholdings.com/invest/chairmans-letters In past 9 years, it was released on same day as 4Q earnings announcement - based on past, should've been out on 3/9/17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matson125 Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Fairholme buys another 613,000 shares. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1056831/000091957417002936/xslF345X03/p7444766.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Hey all: I think SHLD is a big donut... I don't know about the rest of the country, but in my neck of the woods, most of SHLD locations are in C,D,F locations. There ain't no Sears in the "up & coming" and wealthy sections of town. Conversely, there are plenty of SHLD & K-Mart locations with no or very little worth. There is a coming collapse of physical retailers...THOUSANDS of stores are going to be shuttered in the upcoming 12 months. There is going to be a TON of vacant space available. That is going to diminish the value of real estate that SHLD holds. I don't see how this is anything other than a zero... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 How Sears CEO Lampert cashes in as stores cash out http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/03/22/sears-holdings-ceo-eddie-lampert/99487518/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 They don't really talk to investors. I do agree with your sentiment on SHLD, but to date have been very very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 2017 notes are trading around $80 today (from 95-100 last week) and trading around ~40 to 50% yield if you have heart burn medications! ::) They don't really talk to investors. I do agree with your sentiment on SHLD, but to date have been very very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 How Sears CEO Lampert cashes in as stores cash out http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/03/22/sears-holdings-ceo-eddie-lampert/99487518/ In the last sentence it says: “Affiliates of our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, whose interests may be different than your interests, exert substantial influence over our Company,” Sears told investors Tuesday in the public filing. Good luck to you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zarley Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 How Sears CEO Lampert cashes in as stores cash out http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/03/22/sears-holdings-ceo-eddie-lampert/99487518/ People owning or thinking of owning SHLD stock need to understand this. You and Eddie do not necessarily have the same exposure or incentives. With the recent Craftsman deal, I don't think shld is in imminent danger of bankruptcy, but long-term it's not clear how much value the equity of SHLD really has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 How Sears CEO Lampert cashes in as stores cash out http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/03/22/sears-holdings-ceo-eddie-lampert/99487518/ People owning or thinking of owning SHLD stock need to understand this. You and Eddie do not necessarily have the same exposure or incentives. With the recent Craftsman deal, I don't think shld is in imminent danger of bankruptcy, but long-term it's not clear how much value the equity of SHLD really has. I'm trying to understand why Berkowitz and Lampert KEEP buying. It's one thing to keep holding. It's wholly another to keep buying and continuing to increase your exposure. Berkowitz is a smart dude. I don't think he just lost it overnight and became an idiot on Sears and I know that he's discussed this with Lampert. What do the two of them see that all of us bears are missing? It's mind boggling to me that he continues to buy. And its the equity as opposed to the bonds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerBBQ Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 What do the two of them see that all of us bears are missing? It's mind boggling to me that he continues to buy. And its the equity as opposed to the bonds! See page 3 from FAIRX 2015 annual http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Letters/FAIRX2015AnnualLetter.pdf A year ago Berkowitz though real estate worth $15B (after SRG transaction). Do they have better insights on the fair market value of those assets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 What do the two of them see that all of us bears are missing? It's mind boggling to me that he continues to buy. And its the equity as opposed to the bonds! See page 3 from FAIRX 2015 annual http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Letters/FAIRX2015AnnualLetter.pdf A year ago Berkowitz though real estate worth $15B (after SRG transaction). Do they have better insights on the fair market value of those assets? Sure. I get that it's a real estate play, but if the company goes into bankruptcy, you want the debt which is A) backed by the real estate and B) to control the bankruptcy negotiations If you own the debt, you can control the negotiations AND come out with an equity interest. I'm just blown away they're both still purchasing the equity. Like...what are we missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Also, I'm no bankruptcy expert. I know there are circumstances where equity holders do well in bankruptcy (typically liquidity driven and not solvency driven). Others who are more knowledgeable, please feel free to put me in my place if something in my above post appears incorrect. Just trying to understand the appeal of the equity if 2017 notes are offering a 45% YTM and you can just keep rolling the debt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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