Spekulatius Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I bought a Maytag dishwasher early this year for $450 early this year that now quotes for $580. That’s what winning a trade war looks like. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I bought a Maytag dishwasher early this year for $450 early this year that now quotes for $580. That’s what winning a trade war looks like. Yay! "Strange game. The only way to win is not to play." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Sears hit an all-time low of $1.91 today. Great news for the true believers who expect that we will realise Bruce's fair value. 10x is for chumps, how about 100x? :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 The stack of bank notes called SHLD is still on fire with no way to extinguish the burn. That’s really all one needs to know about Sears stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 So two days ago $SHLD put out a press release stating that earnings financials results will be released today pre-market. https://searsholdings.com/press-releases/pr/2108 So where are they? Lost in the ether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 It looks like they changed to after market close. So two days ago $SHLD put out a press release stating that earnings financials results will be released today pre-market. https://searsholdings.com/press-releases/pr/2108 So where are they? Lost in the ether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sears-holdings-reports-second-quarter-203500393.html I wonder what Bruce Berkowitz's estimate of fair value is presently? Real estate must be worth at least $80/share! ::) Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sears-holdings-reports-second-quarter-203500393.html I wonder what Bruce Berkowitz's estimate of fair value is presently? Real estate must be worth at least $80/share! ::) Cheers! Also, if I was a pension holder as a Sears employee, I would be looking for a good class-action lawyer to preserve whatever they can. It was a total shit-show in Canada when Sears Canada went under, and the employees were screwed over. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Hey all: SHLD is apparently filing for bankruptcy, earlier than I thought. Evidently it is M-III partners that is handling the bankruptcy. As reported by the WSJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I wonder what lesson could be learned here this is a classic value trap lots of value in RE can buy way less than 50 cents on the dollar a great investor at the helm yet now it’s worth $0.40 in pre market over the same period of time people would have done way better investing in FANG stocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cigarbutt Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I wonder what lesson could be learned here this is a classic value trap lots of value in RE can buy way less than 50 cents on the dollar a great investor at the helm yet now it’s worth $0.40 in pre market over the same period of time people would have done way better investing in FANG stocks On the tale of averaging down and price action and on periods and cycles. "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only." Charles Dickens The following article depicts well the divergence when Sears (recently) was still trading at around 4$ and AMZN was still showing a quasi-exponential curve. https://todaytrader.com/investing/stock-market/ Investing is truly fascinating. As always, conclusions are often reached in retrospect but, intermittently, "Truth Is Stranger than Fiction, But It Is Because Fiction Is Obliged to Stick to Possibilities; Truth Isn’t" Mark Twain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I'm currently reading "the Big Store" which is a big book about Sears. It hit it's apex in the 1960s, started having trouble in the 1970s and has been like a tire with a slow leak for decades. Fascinating company that did everything right, then did everything wrong. There is huge value in the real estate (there must be at least one other Seritage in there somewhere) and they have lost $10 Billion in recent years, so if they can reorg into a viable entity with a huge NOL it will be something that they can do something with. But what? The market cap of the common is $60mm, and I still like to dumpster dive, but this isn't something I'd buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 ... and I still like to dumpster dive, ... Here, this kind of activity [translated to English] is called "container archeology" - fits perfect here. [ : - ) ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I wonder what lesson could be learned here this is a classic value trap lots of value in RE can buy way less than 50 cents on the dollar a great investor at the helm yet now it’s worth $0.40 in pre market over the same period of time people would have done way better investing in FANG stocks The lesson is management matters. A lot. What they do, not what they say. I owned SHLD a few years ago after following for a while. Sold out shortly and for a tiny profit. Problem was Lampert always gave my stomach knots. The value creation methods of people like Marchionne, Walton, or Malone, can be spotted in the first decade or so of their careers with reasonable personal judgement and some common sense due diligence. After that, you can invest alongside them with far more certainty and still earn great returns. Thankfully, I realized it here early enough. Lampert clearly doesn't feel that same 'steward of capital' responsibility towards other SHLD investors. He also had no experience running a Main Street business, let alone a retail one, let alone a turnaround. He treats the company like his personal fiefdom. His capital allocation was also completely sub-optimal to anyone who looked. That seemed clear. Sears and Kmart were not dead and buried when he got them. He could easily have sold off loss-making stores when property prices were hot, kept much of the best ones with better earnings, reinvested in the cash earning stores, put the proceeds in an ever increasing stock portfolio a la Berkshire instead of doing buybacks, done Seritage-type JVs far sooner, the list goes on and on. Shrinking in order to grow quicker and more intelligently in an area he was better at (ie. investing). Even though retail changes quickly and the competition is brutal, he took his sweet time trying to spin or highlight any worthwhile value that the market could easily observe, and instead let the core business literally crumble. Even the spinning and highlighting he did badly and slowly given how much value was actually there earlier on. The amount of time and opportunity he clearly wasted was the canary in the coalmine for me and, I think, a glaring insight into how humble (or not) he genuinely was being with himself and all his various business partners. Doesn't mean money can't be made by someone using a basket strategy with low price to asset value stocks, but on the individual security level you're better off sticking with people who are actively and obviously creating substantial shareholder value every year, or two, or three, over a sustained time frame. People who are experienced, humble, and clearly know their business and what they're doing. Turnaround experts too, if that's the situation. It's okay to wait a while with big individual issue bets, in order to confirm that management is truly the professional and personal type you want to be in business with. Lampert always just came off as a rich hedgefunder who wanted a personal play thing. Even, to some extent, during his better moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Is this a buy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Is this a buy? I think there are ways to get screwed that are more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I've owned this a bunch in years prior, and it was always an awesome, predictable and profitable trade. But much like ajc mentioned, after a while it just became obvious this was doomed. I mean the stock predictably went up 50-200% at various points on nothing but insider buys, hedge funds like Baker pumping, and random jack ups of the borrow cost. But it ALWAYS came back and the operating results were never anything other than disastrous. I just dumped my monthly spec allocation in TOO options but if I was to gamble more I'd maybe take a flyer here and hope for a 30-50% bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-12/eddie-lampert-rode-the-worst-trade-of-his-life-all-the-way-down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-12/eddie-lampert-rode-the-worst-trade-of-his-life-all-the-way-down According to the web, Eddie's worth is down to $1.4B, wow! As a person who watched this thread closely, I commend the people who said "the wheels were falling off the bus" years ago. I definitely have less respect for all successful hedge fund managers now. The likes of Eddie and Berkowitz and Chou could easily go from hero to zero in the course of a downturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 This is a classic case of a man with reputation and money meeting a bad business. Sears was dying as Walmart was rising. That was a hell of a long time ago. Going up against Sam Walton, with discount retailing in his DNA is next to impossible. Money managers don’t stand a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 It's official, Sears files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 It's official, Sears files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It only took 9,195 posts! What a wild, predictable, yet irrationally hopeful ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 I was hoping they would make it to 1000 pages. I think the thesis was totally broken around page 300 at latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Post #14 from 6 years ago: What are the odds of permanent loss by owning SHLD? With the kind of balance sheet, assets SHLD has - how can it go into bankruptcy? We now know the answer is 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 It's official, Sears files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. It only took 9,195 posts! What a wild, predictable, yet irrationally hopeful ride. SHLD is not the only name. If you sort by replies on the investment ideas page, below is page 1. (Page 2 is similar). There are winners here as well! Vigorous debate over value or "pounding in what you shout out - Munger" ? BAC-WT - Bank of America Warrants ALS.TO - Altius Minerals AAPL - Apple Inc. VRX - Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. BBRY - Blackberry (Formerly RIM) FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles FGE.to - Fortress Paper (formerly FTP.to) BH - Biglari Holdings TSLA - Tesla Motors AMZN - Amazon.com Inc. AIG - American International Group GOOGL - Google SD - SandRidge Energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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