SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp

[Guest ajc]

  now that I think about it I'm not sure I've ever purchased anything ever written about on the board.

 

Nate, funnily enough I find myself in a somewhat similar situation.

 

My reasons are less to do with my own brilliance, than they are to do with my inexperience (so I can't make a direct comparison, having read Oddballstocks a number of times) but I like buying quality companies for the long-term mostly and they tend to not get discussed as much on here when compared with a number of other great ideas.

 

Of course, that's not to say I don't usually learn alot from those threads but when it comes to it I just happen to be a reader and not a buyer of those stocks.

Not that any of this is relevant in any major way, but there it is nonetheless I suppose.

[ASTA]

Love the bickering and discussion on the SHLD topic. The only real contribution I can make is I disclose how much of my portfolio I buy(10%) :D Why did I choose this stock and why now? Its simple I might not be bright or very good at stock picking or analyzing 10k's but I have chosen the path of Mohnish Pabrai teachings. I am that guy on the other side of the gas station copying other great ideas.

For Bruce Berkowitz to open his fund just recently he must be liking SHLD because other wise he could sell his SHLD position and buy more Fannie Mae preferred's. Instead I think that its just a smoke and mirror for buying more SHLD (60% portability). And all other smart investor not selling including Francis Chou how I think is great. And some very smart board members also liking the story. So in the end my little behavioral investing style is beaming saying SHLD is a buy. Of course I could be wrong but all the behavioral lights shine that its a buy now.

Time will tell if I am right and as always thanks for the discussion on this topic. And I will let everyone now my next move(maybe some SHLD options;D) cheers and good luck as always.

P.S have been drinking a bit so take my comments with a grain of salt.                   

[Matson125]

I'm from Canada(don't hold it against me) hahahaha and we don't have SYW up here yet so I can't do the DD that some of you can, but yesterday they have signed up partners on on their SYW porgram(Burger King as an example).  How would this work, is there a terminal at the register where I purchase my BK combo then swipe my SYW rewards? 

 

I ask this because member programs like Airmiles for example partners with credit cards.  I run my credit card into ther terminal, pay for my item and the airmiles are automatically credited to my account.  With SYW it sounds like I would need 2 cards, if I'm paying by credit card. Is that correct?

 

 

 

 

[tooskinneejs]

Luke said: "I want to honor the request of some to not repeat what others have already said.  Read the past 150+ pages on this thread for your answer."

 

So let me get this straight, the evidence of the "hidden value" is also "hidden?"  Classic!

 

Reading is usually a prerequisite for success.  It's very difficult to take one's opinion of a company seriously if they are unwilling to read the financials of a company, much less a message board.

 

Funny that you would say this to me, given that I've been one of few people actually quoting from the 10-Ks and 10-Qs.

 

If you don't want to repeat the $100 per share in value thesis, could you at least post a link to the message that lays out the details and the calculation of the $100 value.  I'm sure there are lots of prospective investors who would be willing to jump on board if they saw this post.  Thanks in advance.

[CorpRaider]

So you guys own zero BRK, FFH, AIG, BAC or MKL?  Mazel! haha.  I kid. 

[constructive]

The SYW points are running a quarter billion dollars annual change to the negative.

 

Between that and the updated pension, I am not sure why people aren't bottom fishing here.

 

...

 

So, yeah, Eddie's certainly dumping material cash into Shop Your Way. I wish he'd back off a bit and actually turn a profit because the numbers show it's possible to do.

 

Promotion expenses might be excessive. But you can't stop them without sacrificing revenue - how much, no one knows. But look at JCPenney, a real time case study.

 

I think Eric mentioned this a couple of pages back.

[constructive]

So you guys own zero BRK, FFH, AIG, BAC or MKL?  Mazel! haha.  I kid.

 

Yep, zero SHLD too.

[CorpRaider]

At least they haven't launched a huge initiative into cloud computing services and streaming video...and driverless cars.  I feel like this management would rather buy back stock if they didn't think they had to spend the $$$ on the rewards program.  Don't you?

[CorpRaider]

So you guys own zero BRK, FFH, AIG, BAC or MKL?  Mazel! haha.  I kid.

 

Yep, zero SHLD too.

 

So zero SHOS too?  In fairness to the SHLD holders, when you say their investment has been "dead money" don't you have to assume they had a brain cell and bought as much of SHOS as they could (at 15 wasn't $15), for a quick and easy double +?

[constructive]

So you guys own zero BRK, FFH, AIG, BAC or MKL?  Mazel! haha.  I kid.

 

Yep, zero SHLD too.

 

So zero SHOS too?  In fairness to the SHLD holders, when you say their investment has been "dead money" don't you have to assume they had a brain cell and bought as much of SHOS as they could (at 15 wasn't $15), for a quick and easy double +?

 

No I don't own any SHOS - seems like a decent business.

 

I don't think I said anything about SHLD being dead money, maybe you're thinking of someone else. On both a trailing and forward basis, I find looking at operational results more useful than looking at share price.

[Luke 532]

Funny that you would say this to me, given that I've been one of few people actually quoting from the 10-Ks and 10-Qs.

 

If you don't want to repeat the $100 per share in value thesis, could you at least post a link to the message that lays out the details and the calculation of the $100 value.  I'm sure there are lots of prospective investors who would be willing to jump on board if they saw this post.  Thanks in advance.

 

Probably 1/3 of the posts in this thread have to do with the asset valuation.  SHLD is far too complex to lay out an adequate thesis in one or two posts.  I'm not going to copy that many links into this post.

[CorpRaider]

So you guys own zero BRK, FFH, AIG, BAC or MKL?  Mazel! haha.  I kid.

 

Yep, zero SHLD too.

 

So zero SHOS too?  In fairness to the SHLD holders, when you say their investment has been "dead money" don't you have to assume they had a brain cell and bought as much of SHOS as they could (at 15 wasn't $15), for a quick and easy double +?

 

No I don't own any SHOS - seems like a decent business.

 

I don't think I said anything about SHLD being dead money, maybe you're thinking of someone else. On both a trailing and forward basis, I find looking at operational results more useful than looking at share price.

 

Yeah, not directed at you in particular.  I agree on the fundies, I'm no Louise Yamada. hah.

[Guest deepValue]

I don't really keep up with this thread, but I happened to click on Eric's link to Sears's skimpy clothing line and now I get a ton of banner ads for thongs and g-strings on most websites I visit. It's distracting at best and embarrassing when someone else uses my laptop! Can't wait for Sears to go bankrupt...

[FCharlie]

I don't really keep up with this thread, but I happened to click on Eric's link to Sears's skimpy clothing line and now I get a ton of banner ads for thongs and g-strings on most websites I visit. It's distracting at best and embarrassing when someone else uses my laptop! Can't wait for Sears to go bankrupt...

 

 

Don't worry. According to analysts Sears should be bankrupt by the summer of 2004..... and every year after!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CorpRaider]

Clear your history bro.

[Luke 532]

I don't really keep up with this thread, but I happened to click on Eric's link to Sears's skimpy clothing line and now I get a ton of banner ads for thongs and g-strings on most websites I visit. It's distracting at best and embarrassing when someone else uses my laptop! Can't wait for Sears to go bankrupt...

 

Control Panel > Internet and Network > Delete browsing history and cookies > Delete

[20ppy]

This Shld thread provided the best insights on shld anywhere on the web. Appreciated!

 

[merkhet]

At the risk of being one of the people that's viewed as harping on the same thing over and over again, I've put together some more numbers in my spreadsheet -- and there seems to be something fishy going on here.

 

(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArX667iB-WCRdFZRMEl4T29EQnRmUTZueE1XY09nSWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

 

---

 

I added Fine Capital Partners, Akre Capital Management & GoodHaven Capital Management.

 

Fine Capital Partners -- looks like Debra Fine managed money for Laurence Tisch and began accumulating shares in Sears starting in 3Q 2011 and has added to it every quarter since then -- http://whalewisdom.com/filer/fine-capital-partners-l-p#

 

Chuck Akre sounds like a long-term holder as well -- http://www.akrefunds.com/media/pdfs/042612_AKREX_Transcript.pdf

 

I think people are pretty familiar with GoodHaven here.

 

---

 

Anyway, this struck me as incredibly interesting, so I thought I would share it with you fine people...

[20ppy]

Thank you for the compilation . Can you comment on the days to cover, is it correct ?

[Luke 532]

At the risk of being one of the people that's viewed as harping on the same thing over and over again, I've put together some more numbers in my spreadsheet -- and there seems to be something fishy going on here.

 

(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArX667iB-WCRdFZRMEl4T29EQnRmUTZueE1XY09nSWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

 

---

 

I added Fine Capital Partners, Akre Capital Management & GoodHaven Capital Management.

 

Fine Capital Partners -- looks like Debra Fine managed money for Laurence Tisch and began accumulating shares in Sears starting in 3Q 2011 and has added to it every quarter since then -- http://whalewisdom.com/filer/fine-capital-partners-l-p#

 

Chuck Akre sounds like a long-term holder as well -- http://www.akrefunds.com/media/pdfs/042612_AKREX_Transcript.pdf

 

I think people are pretty familiar with GoodHaven here.

 

---

 

Anyway, this struck me as incredibly interesting, so I thought I would share it with you fine people...

 

merkhet, I appreciate the info and don't think it's clogging up the board.  Why do you think it's "fishy"?

[merkhet]

 

Thank you for the compilation . Can you comment on the days to cover, is it correct ?

 

 

I took the volume from http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/shld/short-interest -- so I think it's roughly right.

 

 

 

At the risk of being one of the people that's viewed as harping on the same thing over and over again, I've put together some more numbers in my spreadsheet -- and there seems to be something fishy going on here.

 

(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ArX667iB-WCRdFZRMEl4T29EQnRmUTZueE1XY09nSWc&single=true&gid=0&output=html)

 

---

 

I added Fine Capital Partners, Akre Capital Management & GoodHaven Capital Management.

 

Fine Capital Partners -- looks like Debra Fine managed money for Laurence Tisch and began accumulating shares in Sears starting in 3Q 2011 and has added to it every quarter since then -- http://whalewisdom.com/filer/fine-capital-partners-l-p#

 

Chuck Akre sounds like a long-term holder as well -- http://www.akrefunds.com/media/pdfs/042612_AKREX_Transcript.pdf

 

I think people are pretty familiar with GoodHaven here.

 

---

 

Anyway, this struck me as incredibly interesting, so I thought I would share it with you fine people...

 

 

merkhet, I appreciate the info and don't think it's clogging up the board.  Why do you think it's "fishy"?

 

 

When I say "fishy," I mean that it seems strange that we can trade 900K+ shares per day on a float of 14.4 million shares -- I added a "Volume as a % of Float" line to show that we're trading what seems to be 6.5% of the float every day. That's a pretty high amount.

 

Now, some of the shares trading and/or short may have been rehypothecated by broker-dealers where long-term shareholders place their securities, but it's a strange thing to notice that there are essentially more shares short than float.

 

I guess fishy is a strongly charged word. I merely mean that my spidey-sense is tingling.

[BTShine]

The SYW points are running a quarter billion dollars annual change to the negative.

 

Between that and the updated pension, I am not sure why people aren't bottom fishing here.

 

...

 

So, yeah, Eddie's certainly dumping material cash into Shop Your Way. I wish he'd back off a bit and actually turn a profit because the numbers show it's possible to do.

 

Promotion expenses might be excessive. But you can't stop them without sacrificing revenue - how much, no one knows. But look at JCPenney, a real time case study.

 

I think Eric mentioned this a couple of pages back.

 

True.  How much, no one knows.

[BTShine]

At least they haven't launched a huge initiative into cloud computing services and streaming video...and driverless cars.  I feel like this management would rather buy back stock if they didn't think they had to spend the $$$ on the rewards program.  Don't you?

 

Yes, I agree.  They would rather buy back stock.  Look at AN and AZO to get an idea of how ESL prefers buybacks.

[BTShine]

I'm from Canada(don't hold it against me) hahahaha and we don't have SYW up here yet so I can't do the DD that some of you can, but yesterday they have signed up partners on on their SYW porgram(Burger King as an example).  How would this work, is there a terminal at the register where I purchase my BK combo then swipe my SYW rewards? 

 

I ask this because member programs like Airmiles for example partners with credit cards.  I run my credit card into ther terminal, pay for my item and the airmiles are automatically credited to my account.  With SYW it sounds like I would need 2 cards, if I'm paying by credit card. Is that correct?

 

Not exactly.  You submit your credit card information to the 'SYW Link' system.  Then, your ccard is in the system and it knows whenever you shop at Burger King, or other Partner stores.  For example, when you pay at Burger King you're rewarded Shop Your Way points.  I'm not sure how the arrangement is between Burger King and Sears, but it looks like Sears is saying that Burger King has benefited because SYWR Link members are much more likely to shop at Burger King than a control group.  So, clearly Burger King might be willing to pay Sears for this additional BK store traffic that SYWR has generated. 

 

This press release is really helpful.  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-shop-your-way-sm-link-connects-members-to-popular-brands-products-and-services-2013-08-26

 

 

[Luke 532]

Now, some of the shares trading and/or short may have been rehypothecated by broker-dealers where long-term shareholders place their securities, but it's a strange thing to notice that there are essentially more shares short than float.

 

I guess fishy is a strongly charged word. I merely mean that my spidey-sense is tingling.

 

To be conservative we probably shouldn't include all of the institutions/large holders as excluded from the float.  Being conservative the number is closer to 72%-74%, and the shares short does not exceed the float.