SHLDQ - Sears Holdings Corp

[Mephistopheles]

Merkhet,

 

How do you adjust settings to view more posts/page? Been looking to do this for a while....

TIA

 

Profile -> Account Settings -> Modify Profile -> Look and Layout

[muscleman]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/penfield/2013/09/19/a-sears-hometown-store-succeeds-at-penfields-panorama-plaza/2695777/

 

A Sears Hometown Store Succeeds at Penfield's Panorama Plaza.

 

About two years ago (April, 2010, actually), I saw the opening of a new Sears store at Panorama Plaza and I thought that there might be an interesting story there. I returned two years later (August, 2013) to see how the store was doing. I spoke with its owner, Mark Bender, who brought me up-to-date. The exact name of the store, he said, is 'Sears Hometown Store' and there is a difference between his store and what he calls the full-line Sears stores at the malls.

 

"Seventy to eighty percent of these Hometown Stores are independently owned," said Mark. "They are basic dealerships. The store we're standing in is my store but it's Sear's merchandise you see for sale. So we have a fantastic partnership that allows me to use the Sears resources to make available to my customers everything that a full line Sears store in the mall can offer.

 

"The customer may not SEE everything here, but we can have any item that's at the full-line store shipped right here, ready for pick-up or delivered. The beauty of the Hometown Store concept is the ability to have the customer come to a store right in their back yard and have access to the full range of Sears products. No long distance driving, they can park right in front, they get personalized service and they can even do a little shopping while they're in the plaza."

 

It's obvious that the concept is working. There are now over 900 Hometown Stores in the U.S. with recent openings in Geneseo, Batavia and Hornell. The Penfield store has been a success right from the start. "Right out of the gate," said Mark, "we've seen tremendous accomplishments here in Penfield - both on the sales and service sides. We have been named a 'Sears Hometown Store Premier Dealer' twice in the two years we've been open, we've had double digit growth year-over-year for the last 16 consecutive months and, in July of this year, we were the fastest growing store in the entire Northeast.

 

"I empower my employees to think on their feet and do whatever it takes to satsify the customer and make the sale. I want them to make sure that the customer has a good experience. I can't tell you how many people have come back because we exceeded their expectations in the past.

 

"One of the main lessons I've learned in the last few years is: if you don't address a problem when it appears, it may seem to go away temporarily but, actually, it will get worse. It will snowball. If you can't find five minutes to take responsibility and get it done, you're goong to have to spend a lot more time later."

 

Mark Bender and his Penfield Sears Hometown Store is a franchisee of Sears Holdings Corp. which is separate from Sears, Roebuck and Co. Sears Holdings Corp. is a retailer of about 2,500 full line and specialty retail stores in the U.S. and Canada. They lead in sales of home appliances, tools, fitness and lawn and gardem equipment in their areas. Before opening the Penfield Sears Hometown Store, Mark worked in retail financial services (like banks). He grew up in Pittsford and he, his wife and two daughters live in Webster.

 

The Penfield Sears Hometown Store is located at 1601 Penfield Road, #34, Rochester, NY 14625. (585) 348-9292. They are open 9 am to 6 pm Mon. t0 Fri., 11 am to 6 pm on Sat. and 11 am to 4 pm on Sunday.

 

I think this is definitely a good strategy for expansion into the rural areas. ;D

[krazeenyc]

Merkhet,

 

How do you adjust settings to view more posts/page? Been looking to do this for a while....

TIA

 

Profile -> Account Settings -> Modify Profile -> Look and Layout

 

LOL thx. Best post EVER!

[ERICOPOLY]

Merkhet,

 

How do you adjust settings to view more posts/page? Been looking to do this for a while....

TIA

 

Profile -> Account Settings -> Modify Profile -> Look and Layout

 

I have had mine set to the maximum of 50 posts per page.  I wish I could raise that number -- still too few.

[heth247]

well, I guess JCP will still be around for while since they just announced offering of 86M shares, a 30% dilution.

 

I think BTShine was assuming Chapter 7 and not Chapter 11.

 

Yeah, but with a scale like JCP and Goldman as the debt holder, how likely it is for JCP to go Chap 7 immediately?

[jeffmori7]

Merkhet,

 

How do you adjust settings to view more posts/page? Been looking to do this for a while....

TIA

 

Profile -> Account Settings -> Modify Profile -> Look and Layout

 

I have had mine set to the maximum of 50 posts per page.  I wish I could raise that number -- still too few.

 

Haha Eric, and now you would like to have the infinite page, a la Shop you way:)

[bmathews03]

So this thread is 225 pages in.  Have you guys cracked the nut on Sears yet? I can only assume that all this effort by smart people has generated some very succinct, supportable conclusions. It's a tough case, but I'm assuming you guys have figured it all out. And, that's a good thing -- I don't think anyone else is aware that Sears has real estate value that exceeds its market cap. I love to see ground-breaking analysis of this sort that no else has EVER done. Obviously, even if everyone else is aware of your idea, why not assume you can outsmart them?  That's how you invest, baby!

 

Hit me with the bottom line. Should I go all in or set-up a short-position?  Its either this or Tesla.  What do you think FOR REAL?

 

You might have a difficult time finding a lot of COB&F threads that subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis.

 

I had no idea that I subscribed to the efficient market hypothesis.  Whoops. Well, that's one of the great things about Sears and this board, there is always something to learn.

[JRH]

So this thread is 225 pages in.  Have you guys cracked the nut on Sears yet? I can only assume that all this effort by smart people has generated some very succinct, supportable conclusions. It's a tough case, but I'm assuming you guys have figured it all out. And, that's a good thing -- I don't think anyone else is aware that Sears has real estate value that exceeds its market cap. I love to see ground-breaking analysis of this sort that no else has EVER done. Obviously, even if everyone else is aware of your idea, why not assume you can outsmart them?  That's how you invest, baby!

 

Hit me with the bottom line. Should I go all in or set-up a short-position?  Its either this or Tesla.  What do you think FOR REAL?

 

You might have a difficult time finding a lot of COB&F threads that subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis.

 

I had no idea that I subscribed to the efficient market hypothesis.  Whoops. Well, that's one of the great things about Sears and this board, there is always something to learn.

 

 

Your supposition was that "everyone else is aware of your idea" ("hidden" real estate value), therefore, it cannot be an opportunity to arbitrage the price-setting marginal perception vs. reality.  I suppose that's not necessarily EMH, but it walks like it and talks like it.  Or, maybe I misunderstood you.

 

 

I personally think there is a huge amount of disagreement over the value of the real estate, the distribution of that value among specific properties ("80/20 rule"), the method and mix of value realization that Lampert will ultimately utilize (liquidation vs. redevelopment), and the timing of value realization.

 

 

What I think FOR REAL is that two men smarter than me, that have never exhibited commitment bias, continue to buy more of the company, and the float is shrinking towards zero.  Pretty simple situation to understand.

 

 

When I'm wrong and the equity goes to zero, I'll come back here and admit that you were right and that this isn't how people should invest, baby!  ;D

[nkp007]

So this thread is 225 pages in.  Have you guys cracked the nut on Sears yet? I can only assume that all this effort by smart people has generated some very succinct, supportable conclusions. It's a tough case, but I'm assuming you guys have figured it all out. And, that's a good thing -- I don't think anyone else is aware that Sears has real estate value that exceeds its market cap. I love to see ground-breaking analysis of this sort that no else has EVER done. Obviously, even if everyone else is aware of your idea, why not assume you can outsmart them?  That's how you invest, baby!

 

Hit me with the bottom line. Should I go all in or set-up a short-position?  Its either this or Tesla.  What do you think FOR REAL?

 

What the heck is going on here? April Fools?

 

I'm not invested in Sears, but I've taken the time to do the reading.

 

If you truly want to learn, then read the entire thread.

 

[bmathews03]

So this thread is 225 pages in.  Have you guys cracked the nut on Sears yet? I can only assume that all this effort by smart people has generated some very succinct, supportable conclusions. It's a tough case, but I'm assuming you guys have figured it all out. And, that's a good thing -- I don't think anyone else is aware that Sears has real estate value that exceeds its market cap. I love to see ground-breaking analysis of this sort that no else has EVER done. Obviously, even if everyone else is aware of your idea, why not assume you can outsmart them?  That's how you invest, baby!

 

Hit me with the bottom line. Should I go all in or set-up a short-position?  Its either this or Tesla.  What do you think FOR REAL?

 

You might have a difficult time finding a lot of COB&F threads that subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis.

 

I had no idea that I subscribed to the efficient market hypothesis.  Whoops. Well, that's one of the great things about Sears and this board, there is always something to learn.

 

 

Your supposition was that "everyone else is aware of your idea" ("hidden" real estate value), therefore, it cannot be an opportunity to arbitrage the price-setting marginal perception vs. reality.  I suppose that's not necessarily EMH, but it walks like it and talks like it.  Or, maybe I misunderstood you.

 

 

I personally think there is a huge amount of disagreement over the value of the real estate, the distribution of that value among specific properties ("80/20 rule"), the method and mix of value realization that Lampert will ultimately utilize (liquidation vs. redevelopment), and the timing of value realization.

 

 

What I think FOR REAL is that two men smarter than me, that have never exhibited commitment bias, continue to buy more of the company, and the float is shrinking towards zero.  Pretty simple situation to understand.

 

 

When I'm wrong and the equity goes to zero, I'll come back here and admit that you were right and that this isn't how people should invest, baby!  ;D

 

Fair points.  Didn't mean to come off all EMH-like. I just think that A LOT of so-called "value investors" think they're smarter than they are. And, its easy to get seduced into a value-trap based on an arcane analysis of assets. My bigger point is, A LOT of people are looking at it, and why should be able to outsmart them? It's not efficient markets, it's just a lack of humility that seems to float around Sears investors.

 

I'm not saying any of that applies to you personally (don't know you or your work), but I think it applies to a lot of Sears acolytes.

 

Best of luck in your Sears investment. I'm not a bear on Sears, more of just a humble agnostic.

[bmathews03]

So this thread is 225 pages in.  Have you guys cracked the nut on Sears yet? I can only assume that all this effort by smart people has generated some very succinct, supportable conclusions. It's a tough case, but I'm assuming you guys have figured it all out. And, that's a good thing -- I don't think anyone else is aware that Sears has real estate value that exceeds its market cap. I love to see ground-breaking analysis of this sort that no else has EVER done. Obviously, even if everyone else is aware of your idea, why not assume you can outsmart them?  That's how you invest, baby!

 

Hit me with the bottom line. Should I go all in or set-up a short-position?  Its either this or Tesla.  What do you think FOR REAL?

 

What the heck is going on here? April Fools?

 

I'm not invested in Sears, but I've taken the time to do the reading.

 

If you truly want to learn, then read the entire thread.

 

Yes - I was basically joking.

[JRH]

It's not efficient markets, it's just a lack of humility that seems to float around Sears investors.

 

 

I would fully agree with you there!  Almost cult-like in behavior, at times...

[Luke 532]

For those that read the Bishop article "Sears Holdings Valuation Between Berkshire Hathaway and Bankruptcy" you might be interested in the comment they made a couple weeks ago:

 

"From what I have learned about Sears Holdings since I wrote this article, I now understand how valuable this information is and that this stock is worth a lot more than I realized. There is a lot more to Sears Holdings than I wrote in this article."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1509142-sears-holdings-valuation-between-berkshire-hathaway-and-bankruptcy#comments_header

 

The author has also mentioned that he plans on publishing a few more articles on SHLD as soon as early October.

 

[ScottHall]

For those that read the Bishop article "Sears Holdings Valuation Between Berkshire Hathaway and Bankruptcy" you might be interested in the comment they made a couple weeks ago:

 

"From what I have learned about Sears Holdings since I wrote this article, I now understand how valuable this information is and that this stock is worth a lot more than I realized. There is a lot more to Sears Holdings than I wrote in this article."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1509142-sears-holdings-valuation-between-berkshire-hathaway-and-bankruptcy#comments_header

 

The author has also mentioned that he plans on publishing a few more articles on SHLD as soon as early October.

 

Great, can't wait to see it.

[bmathews03]

For those that read the Bishop article "Sears Holdings Valuation Between Berkshire Hathaway and Bankruptcy" you might be interested in the comment they made a couple weeks ago:

 

"From what I have learned about Sears Holdings since I wrote this article, I now understand how valuable this information is and that this stock is worth a lot more than I realized. There is a lot more to Sears Holdings than I wrote in this article."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1509142-sears-holdings-valuation-between-berkshire-hathaway-and-bankruptcy#comments_header

 

The author has also mentioned that he plans on publishing a few more articles on SHLD as soon as early October.

 

Great, can't wait to see it.

 

If anyone can get to the bottom of this Sears situation, it is Scott. He's a talented investor, and he's been doing all the reading that so-called "value investors" haven't been doing. 

[wisdom]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/28/sears-moves-into-data-centers.aspx

 

Article on Ubiquity and Metascale. More details on what has been discussed on this board.

[wisdom]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/28/does-this-struggling-retailer-truly-have-real-esta.aspx

 

another valuation attempt.

[Luke 532]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/28/sears-moves-into-data-centers.aspx

 

Article on Ubiquity and Metascale. More details on what has been discussed on this board.

 

Interesting excerpts...

 

"The business was borne out of demand from companies inquiring how Sears had transformed its own business. Ironically though the MetaScale website and news articles suggest the business is booming yet Sears hasn't mentioned MetaScale in any official releases since the original announcement."

 

"More importantly, the development of Ubiquity CE and MetaScale involve making existing assets more productive without requiring massive capital outlays. Don't be surprised if Sears eventually spins off these operations in the future, but for now don't expect the company to discuss them at any length."

[BTShine]

Has anyone seen confirmation of Sears' completed term loan offering? 

[Sportgamma]

I´m curious.

 

As far as I can tell the debate about Sears on this thread is mainly between (1) those who are long Sears and (2) those who disagree with the longs. Is there anyone here who is actually shorting Sears? I ask because when I read this thread I value higher the opinion of those who have been willing to put their money where their mouth is.

 

My judgement regarding Sears and Lampert might be wrong. It may well turn out that I will be disillusioned about my estimate of the downside. This bet may not be as asymmetric as I think it is. However, where that scenario to take place I have a high degree of certainty that Lampert will be ruined (if not financially, than at least psychologically i.e. legacy and reputation). Losing money that way will make it feel less wrong, as the engineer is buried under the rubble.

[T-bone1]

Has anyone seen confirmation of Sears' completed term loan offering?

 

I saw that it was issued at $99 (I believe on Thursday night) and traded up a half point on Friday

[BTShine]

Has anyone seen confirmation of Sears' completed term loan offering?

 

I saw that it was issued at $99 (I believe on Thursday night) and traded up a half point on Friday

 

I saw something about that, too.  But wasn't sure if it was from a credible source.  No filing from the company that I've seen. 

[Luke 532]

Lands' End Announces New EVP, Chief Merchandising Design Officer

 

Michele Donnan-Martin Brings More Than 25 Years of Strategic Retail Experience to Lands' End

 

DODGEVILLE, Wis., Sept. 30, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Lands' End today announced it has named Michele Donnan-Martin as Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Design officer. Donnan-Martin will lead all aspects of merchandising and design for the brand to ensure alignment of product development, price point strategies and design aesthetic to embrace and further build upon Lands' End's rich heritage. Donnan-Martin will start on November 4, 2013, and report directly to Edgar Huber, CEO and President, Lands' End.

 

"I am confident that Michele's proven success in the retail industry will deliver the ideal combination of merchandising, product development and financial acumen that will further position Lands' End for growth," said Edgar Huber, CEO and president of Lands' End. "We look forward to adding a new member to the Lands' End Leadership Team who will bring a wealth of brand-building knowledge and multi-channel retail and product development experience."

 

Donnan-Martin comes to Lands' End as an experienced senior executive who has successfully led and built new brands throughout her career. Most recently, she was the sr. vice president/general merchandising manager for Coldwater Creek and prior to that she was the brand president, retail & direct, for Delia's Inc. Both of these posts, plus a previous role at J. Crew, have provided Donnan-Martin with a strong understanding of the direct retail business model. Donnan-Martin also served as chief design officer for Martin & OSA, a division of American Eagle Outfitters. While at Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Donnan-Martin was instrumental in establishing the women's apparel division.

 

"Michele's strong experience in merchandising and design will be a valuable addition to our team as we continue to evolve our brand through new product design and innovation," said Huber. "I look forward to working with her to deliver on our commitment to provide our customers with the quality, value and service we have been known for over the past 50 years."

[muscleman]

I bought a printer from kmart.com last night. I enrolled in its 90 day free trial for the free shipping. It is just like Amazon, except that I get the free shipping for 90 days instead of 30 days.

Their website is buggy. I sent them a note for two bugs. Hopefully they will fix them. :)

 

I think if they can get the obvious bugs fixed, and get the search relevance improved, then it is pretty competitive against amazon. :P

[ScottHall]

I´m curious.

 

As far as I can tell the debate about Sears on this thread is mainly between (1) those who are long Sears and (2) those who disagree with the longs. Is there anyone here who is actually shorting Sears? I ask because when I read this thread I value higher the opinion of those who have been willing to put their money where their mouth is.

 

My judgement regarding Sears and Lampert might be wrong. It may well turn out that I will be disillusioned about my estimate of the downside. This bet may not be as asymmetric as I think it is. However, where that scenario to take place I have a high degree of certainty that Lampert will be ruined (if not financially, than at least psychologically i.e. legacy and reputation). Losing money that way will make it feel less wrong, as the engineer is buried under the rubble.

 

I'm personally not short Sears and will never be - I don't short stocks, period. If anything, I will buy shares.

 

I don't think that the people who are buying Sears because they believe in the real estate or Eddie, etc. are wrong, I'm just not sure that they're right. Considering that this is currently a melting ice cube with losses, negative cash flow, that's taking out loans less favorable than the ones they're replacing, I think you have to really believe in the real estate and its ability to be monetized.

 

So far, every analysis I've seen of the situation is full of conjecture and, in some cases, "facts" that are just outright incorrect which could have been learned from reading the credit agreements. If Eddie turns SHLD around or turns it in to a legitimate capital allocation vehicle, I'll be on board with him until he decides to retire - even if I do have to pay a higher price for entry. Until then, or until I become aware of facts that change my mind, Sears is just too rich for my blood.

 

I hope you all do well on your investment, though. I hold no ill will against you.

 

P.S. Being willing to put "your money where your mouth is" doesn't determine whether you're right or wrong. You could just be suffering from a massive case of Dunning-Kruger.