premfan Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I feel this was a PR move due to the street absolutely hating the guy. I mean the guy started a business from 0-2.2 billion in revenue in 4 years and he gets the boot. That doesnt seem right to me. The board gave in to the pressure of meeting the streets expectations and felt it needed a "public makeover". Groupon is in growth mode and it needs to balance growth with profitability. Which they were on the path to due to automation of the deal marketplace headed by mr.raman. The board jumped the gun on this and it makes me question there focus on creating a unique platform. Companies like this need a long term focus and mindset. Firing andrew shows how short sighted this board is. Pretty brutal when you start a company from bascially scratch to 2.2 billion and get the boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Oh man, this line was great, too. "If Groupon was Battletoads, it would be like I made it all the way to the Terra Tubes without dying on my first ever play through" ;D I never did beat that game. :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I don't think firing him was a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I feel this was a PR move due to the street absolutely hating the guy. I mean the guy started a business from 0-2.2 billion in revenue in 4 years and he gets the boot. That doesnt seem right to me. The board gave in to the pressure of meeting the streets expectations and felt it needed a "public makeover". Groupon is in growth mode and it needs to balance growth with profitability. Which they were on the path to due to automation of the deal marketplace headed by mr.raman. The board jumped the gun on this and it makes me question there focus on creating a unique platform. Companies like this need a long term focus and mindset. Firing andrew shows how short sighted this board is. Pretty brutal when you start a company from bascially scratch to 2.2 billion and get the boot. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah, this is really disappointing. I understand the concern over making a loss. But by the CF statement, they made 200M in FCFE, while holding ZERO debt. I don't think they were doing that badly at all. Or am I totally off here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
premfan Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 At this stage of groupons evolution the business is fine. The concerns are there are two main businesses that are polar opposites in operating margins. The e-commerce business is high fixed cost and a low margin business. The trade off its much easier to scale. The deal marketplace is a high margin business that needs a lot of support people running the merchant accounts. Mr. Kaman was hired to essentially automate the deal marketplace. The problem is groupon hired to many employees too fast. My speculation is that Andrew has a bond and loyalty to his employees. The rife could have been that lay offs are going to happen cause they don't need as many people to run the deal side of the business. They need to balance the SG& A to achieve profitability. Basically they need to lay off a ton of people in the deal side of the business to achieve profitability. No reason to have thousands of employees if the marketplace will be automated. The days of cold calling are over. You always have to see what motivates people. Andrew started the point as a social activist site to start campaigns against social causes. The dude isn't motivated by money. He is motivated by changing the world. Eric L. is a billionaire only cause of Andrews idea and most importantly his execution. Ideas are a dime a dozen. Execution is what importantly matters. He was unfairly targeted as the problem due to wall streets absurd expectations of a start up company in a new space. I'm hoping this was just a PR move and Andrew is still involved with the evolution of groupon in the backround outside of the eyes of wall street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-masons-378-36-retirement-190743504.html Adding to the surreal but oddly refreshing departure of Groupon (GRPN) CEO Andrew Mason, it now appears that Mason's retirement package is minimal. As in $378.36. Not $378 million, or $370,000, but $378 - not nearly enough to even buy the proverbial gold watch (unless he shops on Canal Street). I start to like the guy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/03/groupons-bad-deal.html But even a truncated list of the company’s failures borders on breathtaking: when it raised just over a billion dollars in funding over the course of 2010 and 2011, nearly nine hundred and fifty million found its way into the coffers of Groupon executives and stockholders rather than being used to fund the company. And while the tech press, particularly publications that focus on tech startups and Silicon Valley, is essentially enthusiastic—when Instagram was acquired by Facebook, the most well-read chronicler of Silicon Valley, TechCrunch, altered its logo in homage—it also seems unlikely that Lefkofsky will be able to provide the kind of cushioning that Mason’s almost bubbly public personality did. The end of Mason’s letter to Groupon employees says that “this leadership change gives you some breathing room,” but the company may have in fact lost its best source of air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Interesting insight. Goodbye Groupon: Andrew Mason's dance with the devil http://www.theverge.com/2013/3/1/4043566/andrew-masons-deal-with-the-devil In the wake of Andrew Mason's firing as CEO of Groupon, there's been a lot of negativity towards the young entrepreneur. In part it's because Mason was always a character, someone who largely refused to take things seriously, and who preferred to defuse tension with humor, as he did in his hilarious resignation letter yesterday. This was charming at first, then increasingly less so as Groupon's financial health, business practices and accounting came into question. But as the smiling face of the fastest-growing company in history, Mason was also a shield, a barrier between the press and Eric Lefkofsky, the co-founder and investor behind Groupon, and a man with a track record of creating hypergrowth companies that have crashed and burned... after he cashed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrallen81 Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Any thoughts on potential value following today's schellacking? Does anyone follow this closely anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I stupidly bought some Groupon options heading into their last earnings and got creamed and lost 100%. I was a nice reminder why I shouldn't make short-term trades. I think the Daily Deals business model is largely doomed, and Groupon's 'trying 50 other things and hope something sticks' model hasn't worked out well so far. They should've accepted Google's stupid $6 billion offer a few years ago. There is pretty much no barrier of entry for this business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Any thoughts on potential value following today's schellacking? Does anyone follow this closely anymore? GRPN is in a multi quarters transition. I don't think their operating trends have bottomed out yet, hence the low in the stocks is still 1-2 quarters away. We could see the all time low again. Once GRPN stabilizes, I don't think it's business model is that different from QVC's and much more viable than ZNGA's. It's closest rival, LivingSocial, is losing market share fast. It could crave out a profitable niche for itself. I am waiting for the first positive surprise before buying shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Groupon is a nice precedent to what will ultimately come in terms of stock declines to all those momentum stocks with little to no competitive advantages. Expect 90% drops from the peaks to lows to be the rule instead of the exception. I have a hard time seeing long lasting moats in companies like CRM or FB, let alone Groupon! Einhorn is right in pointing out that network effect is the only major competitive advantage that tech companies generally have (or lack), aside from a few expections maybe. He also pointed out that a bursting bubble will show great sell offs and strong rallies so be ready to handle some volatility no matter what side you are on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Fair enough with all the other names but please don't group FB together with them. FB is in same the league as AMZN and GOOG. Its earning power and pricing power are already evident. Expensive, yes, fad, hell no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I'm saying I have a hard time finding a moat that will last a decade or longer. I'm not sure it's popularity won't fade. Agree that they are doing a great job monetizing and growing. That didn't mean I put it in the same league, should have been more clear sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Once GRPN stabilizes, I don't think it's business model is that different from QVC's and much more viable than ZNGA's. I don't really see the similarities between groupon and QVC, apart from the fact that both are selling stuff without brick & mortar stores. Everything that makes QVC a good business with a moat and industry-leading margins is absent in Groupon, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I don't know how old are you. But for people that are under 30s, they probably have their entire lives documented on FB, most of their photos, memories of friends, etc. It would be herculean task to move all of these memories to somewhere else. Since its free to use, they have very little incentive to move even if a competitor comes out with something better. One such notable failure is Google plus. All of this information that Facebook has is incredibly valuable to marketers, probably much more granular compare to what Google has. That's why FB can charge a million a day for ads and it has been raising prices. Similar to Google, FB will use its ever increasing cash flow and expensive stocks to make its moat stronger each year. Mark Zuckerberg is a student of Gates/Jobs/Page and he understands technology and monopoly. I have high conviction that he has enough vision to defend and increase FB's moat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Once GRPN stabilizes, I don't think it's business model is that different from QVC's and much more viable than ZNGA's. I don't really see the similarities between groupon and QVC, apart from the fact that both are selling stuff without brick & mortar stores. Everything that makes QVC a good business with a moat and industry-leading margins is absent in Groupon, IMO. I like to hear both sides. Can you list what QVC has that GRPN lacks? I could be wrong but I think both has entered our cultural lexicons. Local group buying is synonymous with Groupon. The addressable market may not be as large as QVC's due to the finite supply of local deals. I think GRPN gets this and it is working hard to automate its processes and expanding into other related niches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I don't know how old are you. But for people that are under 30s, they probably have their entire lives documented on FB, most of their photos, memories of friends, etc. It would be herculean task to move all of these memories to somewhere else. Since its free to use, they have very little incentive to move even if a competitor comes out with something better. One such notable failure is Google plus. All of this information that Facebook has is incredibly valuable to marketers, probably much more granular compare to what Google has. That's why FB can charge a million a day for ads and it has been raising prices. Similar to Google, FB will use its ever increasing cash flow and expensive stocks to make its moat stronger each year. Mark Zuckerberg is a student of Gates/Jobs/Page and he understands technology and monopoly. I have high conviction that he has enough vision to defend and increase FB's moat. I wouldn't mind seeing him succeed, it would be a great story of success. I should also add that I'm biased: I'm 24 and have never had a FB profile. Most of the pro's listed by people about FB are the exact reasons that I steer away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatientCheetah Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I don't know how old are you. But for people that are under 30s, they probably have their entire lives documented on FB, most of their photos, memories of friends, etc. It would be herculean task to move all of these memories to somewhere else. Since its free to use, they have very little incentive to move even if a competitor comes out with something better. One such notable failure is Google plus. All of this information that Facebook has is incredibly valuable to marketers, probably much more granular compare to what Google has. That's why FB can charge a million a day for ads and it has been raising prices. Similar to Google, FB will use its ever increasing cash flow and expensive stocks to make its moat stronger each year. Mark Zuckerberg is a student of Gates/Jobs/Page and he understands technology and monopoly. I have high conviction that he has enough vision to defend and increase FB's moat. I wouldn't mind seeing him succeed, it would be a great story of success. I should also add that I'm biased: I'm 24 and have never had a FB profile. Most of the pro's listed by people about FB are the exact reasons that I steer away. I guess its a cultural thing. If you went to an American college, everyone that you know would be on FB. Some of the highest rated television shows in the U.S. are reality TV shows. American and its close cultural counterparts love learning about frivolous details of other people's lives. FB provides such service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Where the hell do you think Belgium is situated? :D J/k, it's pretty much the same here. I just choose not to participate. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I like to hear both sides. Can you list what QVC has that GRPN lacks? I could be wrong but I think both has entered our cultural lexicons. Local group buying is synonymous with Groupon. The addressable market may not be as large as QVC's due to the finite supply of local deals. I think GRPN gets this and it is working hard to automate its processes and expanding into other related niches. This post contains a decent primer on what makes QVC a good business: http://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/92/ (and it'll be even better when they merge with HSN; LINTA already owns 40% of HSN and controls it, but HSN sells at a much higher multiple than QVC despite being a worse operation (lower margins, no international growth), that's because QVC is hidden inside the LINTA mothership -- that's what the new tracker is doing, and once QVC trades at a more normal multiple, I expect them to merge and have even better economics). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I think GRPN is really interesting around $3. Anyone else? Pretty good video at bottom of this link shows the bull story. Also go read the latest quarterly letter to shareholders. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/groupon-ceo-on-amc-partnership-transforming-platform-into-a-utility.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I think GRPN is really interesting around $3. Anyone else? Pretty good video at bottom of this link shows the bull story. Also go read the latest quarterly letter to shareholders. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/groupon-ceo-on-amc-partnership-transforming-platform-into-a-utility.html Question is, when will their top line stabilizes, it keeps declining (although it is intended). Will "Groupon+" really be the silver bullet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I used to use the occasional groupon a few years back... but fuck me did they become the most annoying company. Emails every day from 4 different groupons. Groupon goods, groupon restaurants, group on services... The deals dont seem so good anymore, mostly they are trying to push tatty impulse purchases. If others like me they cut off all ties and never looked at it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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