rkbabang Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I just noticed that there is no SAM thread, so I wanted to start one. It's a company that has been growing quite nicely and the founder still chairman. Until recently SAM was one of my long-term holdings. I first bought it in 2005 for $21/share. I sold my entire position this year at $113 to put it into BAC warrants. Today SAM just announced that they earned more than they previously guided for 2012 and the stock has shot up 15%. Over the years this has pretty much been the norm. The price will be stable for a while then shoot up unexpectedly to a new level. It has never been cheap, I've considered it more of a growth investment than a value stock. Its moat is both its brand & its product, and simply the ability to mass produce a beer that doesn't taste mass produced. The irony is that since going paleo about 2 years ago, I've only drank beer of any kind 2 or 3 times. On all those occasions it was a Boston Beer Company product though. If I'm going to ingest all those carbs and all that gluten it isn't going to be to drink an inferior beer. Boston Beer shares rise 14% on higher profit view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I followed SAM for a while - I hesitated buying it at 82, obviously I was wrong. Basically I think of it as a premium foods company - they have a good product, and a loyal fan base, but no real "network" effects or "switching costs" that I feel you need to have in order to pay a premium. The craft industry is very fragmented, and there are a lot of great craft beers out there and the macros can buy up these craftbrews making life hard for SAM. IMO what SAM needs to continue doing is eating into Bud/Miller/Coors marketshare to continue value creation rather than simply being a great craft brewer. Let's hope Sierra Nevada and New Belgium also go public.... :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I just noticed that there is no SAM thread, so I wanted to start one. It's a company that has been growing quite nicely and the founder still chairman. Until recently SAM was one of my long-term holdings. I first bought it in 2005 for $21/share. I sold my entire position this year at $113 to put it into BAC warrants. Today SAM just announced that they earned more than they previously guided for 2012 and the stock has shot up 15%. Over the years this has pretty much been the norm. The price will be stable for a while then shoot up unexpectedly to a new level. It has never been cheap, I've considered it more of a growth investment than a value stock. Its moat is both its brand & its product, and simply the ability to mass produce a beer that doesn't taste mass produced. The irony is that since going paleo about 2 years ago, I've only drank beer of any kind 2 or 3 times. On all those occasions it was a Boston Beer Company product though. If I'm going to ingest all those carbs and all that gluten it isn't going to be to drink an inferior beer. Boston Beer shares rise 14% on higher profit view If they have a moat, I'd say it lies more with their distribution (and production, as you said) than their brand or product. I like their beer, but there are tons of craft beers I like more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I just noticed that there is no SAM thread, so I wanted to start one. It's a company that has been growing quite nicely and the founder still chairman. Until recently SAM was one of my long-term holdings. I first bought it in 2005 for $21/share. I sold my entire position this year at $113 to put it into BAC warrants. Today SAM just announced that they earned more than they previously guided for 2012 and the stock has shot up 15%. Over the years this has pretty much been the norm. The price will be stable for a while then shoot up unexpectedly to a new level. It has never been cheap, I've considered it more of a growth investment than a value stock. Its moat is both its brand & its product, and simply the ability to mass produce a beer that doesn't taste mass produced. The irony is that since going paleo about 2 years ago, I've only drank beer of any kind 2 or 3 times. On all those occasions it was a Boston Beer Company product though. If I'm going to ingest all those carbs and all that gluten it isn't going to be to drink an inferior beer. Boston Beer shares rise 14% on higher profit view If they have a moat, I'd say it lies more with their distribution (and production, as you said) than their brand or product. I like their beer, but there are tons of craft beers I like more. Yes as a lover of craft beers myself I'd say that Sam Adams is my "settling" beer. Distribution is key, at a bar with 15 different types of yellow water they almost always have one Sam Adams on tap. I have cases of Brooklyn Chocolate Stout, Anchor Christmas Ale, and Troegs Mad Elf in the fridge. Why cases everyone not from Pennsylvania asks? The gov in their infinite wisdom determined that by only allowing beer to be sold by the case they'd cut down on underage drinking. You can buy a six pack at some bars but the markup is crazy. So if I want three types of beer I have to buy three cases. Most brewers offer sampler cases. To tie this back into the thread, Sam Adams throws some junk into the samplers. Last years fall sampler had a campfire beer. It tasted smokey, weirdly nastily stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I like the sampler packs. I personally wouldnt buy a whole 12pk of Chocolate Bock, but I might after I try one and it is good enough. Their Winter Lager is my favorite beer so far....but I'm a relative newcomer to craft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yes as a lover of craft beers myself I'd say that Sam Adams is my "settling" beer. Distribution is key, at a bar with 15 different types of yellow water they almost always have one Sam Adams on tap. Exactly..you can find Sam Adams at a lot of places like sports and music venues where the only alternatives are crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Let's hope Sierra Nevada and New Belgium also go public.... :) As a side note, I'm really surprised at how few of the larger craft breweries have been acquired by larger company. I really hope they don't, but if I was the CEO of a company like Anheiser Busch, I'd be trying to buy up companies like New Belgium, Sierra Nevada, Long Trail, etc (I think Long Trail actually might've declined a buyout offer from Busch a few years ago). I'd like to see New Belgium go public, but I think they're co-op (am I wrong on this), so don't expect that to happen any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 One public craft brewer is BREW, the Craft Brew Alliance, owners of Red Hook, Widmer, and Kona. I haven't looked at them at all. I believe it is minority-owned by A-B Inbev. The larger beer companies are interested in the craft space because it and PABs (progressive adult beverages - Mike's Hard Lemonade, Smirnoff Ice, etc.) are the only segments of the malt beverage industry showing some growth. There are several brews marketed and sold as craft beers that are made by the big boys (e.g. Shock Top, Landshark, Crooked Creek) - they make it intentionally hard to figure it out from the labeling though since many craft beer drinkers would recoil at buying a product from the duopoly. It's not a quality issue per se. It's just that after decades of having been abused by the major beer companies, for many the choice of beer is more than just about quality and price point. I think that is the risk of buying out, say, Sierra Nevada. It would hurt the brand in the eyes of Sierra's current customers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martian Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 wow..it is now at $161 and I thought it was bit overvalued at 100 !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I was ambivalent about it at 80.....god I'm an idiot. "The One That Got Away" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yuengling is a PA brand. I think that a lot of the craft brewers are fiercely loyal to their family business and would balk at the idea of selling out to the Duopolies or PE. The brands that survived over the years are a bit like rebels that refuses to give in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericd1 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Seems to be very pricey. I don't short very often, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Some of these craft brewers would be great Berkshire companies. I could totally see Sam, New Belgium or Brooklyn under the Berk umbrella. Niche players, good brand names, owner operators, growing businesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 wow..it is now at $161 and I thought it was bit overvalued at 100 !! It's always painful to see something you passed on or sold go up big. I sold at $113 after owning it for almost 8 years. My only recompense is knowing that I used the proceeds to buy BAC warrants in the $3.80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 wow..it is now at $161 and I thought it was bit overvalued at 100 !! It's always painful to see something you passed on or sold go up big. I sold at $113 after owning it for almost 8 years. My only recompense is knowing that I used the proceeds to buy BAC warrants in the $3.80's. I bought around 70s and sold when it hit mid 100s. Actually I don't feel any regrets about SAM. I am convinced now that you can not wait for companies becoming way overvalued and then sell it. It easily could have gone the other way. My only regret was I bought BAC commons around 6s and sold some at 10s. I'm still scratching my head over that. I 'm not selling rest of my BAC anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldye Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 There are probably 300-400 new craft breweries opening this year, with many more to come I'm sure. That said, craft is still a tiny sliver of the entire pie and I personally would not invest in any of the large public companies. They actually had to change the definition of "craft" because Sam/Yuengling has gotten so big, sales of "old craft" like Boston Lager/Widmer Hef are declining and most of their growth is coming from new trendy styles like ciders (lambics are much better!) seasonals and IPA's. Goose Island still makes one of the best beer I've ever tried. I think the industry will become way more dynamic in years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 No love for Bells? If we are going to throw out some good microbrew names, I have to mention my favorite. Most of the beverage industry in general is trading at very high valuations. I would love to buy brown forman or Diego but they are just too expensive for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm into drinking malty, bready, yeasty beers with low hop bitterness. I have rarely been able to find any. Anybody have any recommendations? Something like maybe bock or Kvass. Craft beers I liked so far: GI - Nut Brown Ale, Honkers Ale, 312, and Summertime....all are college favorites. SA - Winter Lager, Noble Pils Gulden Draak - This has to be the best beer I've ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Off-topic, but this thread is making me thirsty for my fave: http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2526/4066897475_5c814b48ff_z.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Sam Adams Creator Becomes Billionaire as Craft Beer Rises http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sam-adams-creator-becomes-billionaire-040001290.html What a great story, their beer is great, wish I'd bought their stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 wow way overvalued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm into drinking malty, bready, yeasty beers with low hop bitterness. I have rarely been able to find any. Anybody have any recommendations? Something like maybe bock or Kvass. Give Founders Porter a try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 Sam Adams Creator Becomes Billionaire as Craft Beer Rises http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sam-adams-creator-becomes-billionaire-040001290.html What a great story, their beer is great, wish I'd bought their stock. I wish I hadn't sold so early, right now it is exactly double what I sold it for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 To be fair, at a more reasonable valuation, this could still be a buy, a 3.9B dollar company has plenty of room to grow IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 wow way overvalued. That's exactly what people said at 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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