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SAM - Boston Beer Co.


rkbabang

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  • 1 year later...

Anyone still following this company?

 

I have been looking at this company for the last couple of days. The valuation is much reasonable now, especially when comparing with peers.  ROE is quite high and there's no debt. The beer market is competitive, but yet, they are still commanding top ROE. The founder is still active managing and setting the CEO's compensation etc.. I am tempted.. The founder is 66 years old and have two daughters.

 

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Pre tax earning is 155mn and Mkt cap is 1.9bn.

Cheapest among all beer makers.

The only worry is they are losing marker shares recently, being squeezed from both sides by BUD and hundreds of new craft beers makers.

 

Interestingly the CEO just got a new batch of 10 yr stock option which i think has strike price that a lot higher than current price.

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/01/19/elizabeth-warren-and-pat-toomey-wager-beer-over-afc-game/WYcbKXxP6dESWOh1tX5C4N/amp.html

 

Senator Warren:

“The Patriots will get the job done this weekend in their record sixth consecutive AFC championship game appearance,” she said. “Coach Tomlin’s smack talk is just that: all talk--the Pats are a bunch of champions through and through, and I’m looking forward to celebrating another trip to the Super Bowl with all of Patriots Nation.”

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http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16732226-martin-roper-retire-ceo-boston-beer-company-2018

 

"The Boston Beer Company, Inc. today announced that Martin Roper, President and Chief Executive Officer, plans to retire in 2018 after leading  the Company for more than 17 years.  The Board of Directors has created a search committee and retained Korn Ferry to assist in identifying and evaluating the best candidates to succeed Roper as CEO."

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http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16732226-martin-roper-retire-ceo-boston-beer-company-2018

 

"The Boston Beer Company, Inc. today announced that Martin Roper, President and Chief Executive Officer, plans to retire in 2018 after leading  the Company for more than 17 years.  The Board of Directors has created a search committee and retained Korn Ferry to assist in identifying and evaluating the best candidates to succeed Roper as CEO."

 

Interesting. If you look at the CEO comp plan, he got no upside once the stock exceed 100/share, so he has been selling. The new plan also require a large appreciation of the stock over long term and it's capped too.

Sam now have changed their ceo, cfo, cmo, coo over the last 6,9 months.

 

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You might want to keep in mind that from the investment POV, every craft brewer is a 'proof of concept'.

The idea is to prove that your brands can sell in the millions of litres; & either sell the brewery to a major - or licence the brands.

As there's a large DOL, scale matters - & the smaller scale brewery usually gets shut down.

 

Attempts to keep the old facility, or its senior management, are often a red flag.

Publicly listed breweries are not hobby businesses.

 

SD

 

 

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"On January 1, 2016, the Company granted the Chief Executive Officer an option to purchase 574,507 shares of its Class A Common Stock, which vests over a five-year period, commencing on January 1, 2019, at the rate of 20% per year. The exercise price is determined by multiplying $201.91 by the aggregate percentage change in the DJ Wilshire 5000 Index from and after January 1, 2016 through the close of business on the trading date next preceding each date on which the option is exercised, plus an additional 1.5 percentage points per annum, prorated for partial years. The exercise price will not be less than $201.91 per share and the excess of the fair value of the Company’s Class A Common Stock over the exercise price cannot exceed $150.00 per share. The Company is accounting for this award as a market-based award which was valued utilizing the Monte Carlo Simulation pricing model, which calculates multiple potential outcomes for an award and establishes fair value based on the most likely outcome. Under the Monte Carlo Simulation pricing model, the Company calculated the weighted average fair value per share to be $39.16. At September 24, 2016, the stock option remained unexercised as to 574,507 shares. If the stock option had been exercised on September 24, 2016, the exercise price would have been $217.53 per share."

 

no wonder the CEO quit!  ;D ;D

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 years later...

Does anybody have an insights on what is going on here?  Around $6 Billion market cap, basically an all-time high.  Turning expired kegs into ethanol.  Restaurants & bars closed.  Steady selling every single day by founder and some by CEO and board members.  Short interest doesn't seem crazy high, so what am I missing?

 

Is this because Truly is doing amazing or something?  Thoughts?

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Does anybody have an insights on what is going on here?  Around $6 Billion market cap, basically an all-time high.  Turning expired kegs into ethanol.  Restaurants & bars closed.  Steady selling every single day by founder and some by CEO and board members.  Short interest doesn't seem crazy high, so what am I missing?

 

Is this because Truly is doing amazing or something?  Thoughts?

 

You are missing that the market is not driven by fundamentals right now.

 

That said, I like some of SAM’s beers . The Octoberfest (Märzen)  is one of my favorite beers as I prefer malty beers over very hoppy ones ( IPA‘s etc)

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Does anybody have an insights on what is going on here?  Around $6 Billion market cap, basically an all-time high.  Turning expired kegs into ethanol.  Restaurants & bars closed.  Steady selling every single day by founder and some by CEO and board members.  Short interest doesn't seem crazy high, so what am I missing?

 

Is this because Truly is doing amazing or something?  Thoughts?

 

You arent missing anything. I think this is a great short, at least in terms of a hedge. If we were at these prices, and not in a pandemic, I wouldn't go near this as a valuation short. But right now you'd be hard pressed to find a better setup. Takeout risk is always there, but at this valuation, and given the fact that previously, they've refused to entertain this, I think it is unlikely. The constant selling by insiders is an embarrassment and has been going on for years.

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