Packer16 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Below is a good example of his thinking: Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 His argument about farming is also v interesting. Any thoughts about Black earth farming? They own farmland in russia, and stock is trading at a discount to the land they own (which is laughably cheap and v fertile). But it seems they have problems making a profit and are now trying to attract professionals to better monetize this. Kinda suprised really that alot of these publicy trading companies cant even get cash flow positive. I guess it really is alot harder then it looks. http://www.producer.com/2013/12/russian-agriculture-crippled-by-inefficiencies/ Def something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yitech Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I took a plunge into the Russian oil space with this name. The company is selling for about 15% of US majors and EM majors on a reserves basis and less than 50% on an EBITDA basis. The interesting thing is other Russian sectors (telecom and media) do not sell at a discount to other Western firms. I watched some of Jim Rogers latest talks on Russia and was caught. Jim Rogers also got me hooked on commodities in the mid 00s. Then you have Jim Grant and mcdep bullish with most of the market saying Russia???? Just look at the reaction of some of our CoBF folks who I would consider to be above average value investors. So you definately have a hated asset class. On a quality basis Lukoil is the best in Russia and has about the same upside as other more opaque players like Rosneft and Surgutneftgas. The disclosure is great (see their website). This is in combination of changes in Russia observed by Jim Rogers and friend of mine who used live in Russia is what makes me bullish on this idea. We will see. Packer Hi Packer, I also did some quick/rough market cap as fractions of reserves calculations and comparisons for XOM(106%), PTR(64%), Lukoil(18%). I invested in Lukoil briefly for 2 months and got out a month ago because it wasn't clear when the catalyst would be realized. I also read somewhere that Putin mentioned he wanted to advance Russia's corporate image in terms of global ranking. I sold before Putin released Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky. Anyhow, now that you took the plunge, I want to take a closer look. I am new to the oil exploration space and am wondering how they mostly trade in terms of valuation metrics. i.e. against reserves, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT or P/E. I read somewhere the Buffett invested in PTR because it trades at a fraction of reserves versus other western companies, so I did the comparisons of reserves and would like to know your opinion on that. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Always feel P/E is misleading for the oil&gas sector Seems they constantly need high capital investment so the real FCF yield is usually much lower than their earning yield; The mystery is seems even though they spend heavily but they are not expanding, just barely replacing reserves and the total reserves are just flat in most cases. Some observation from a newbie... I took a plunge into the Russian oil space with this name. The company is selling for about 15% of US majors and EM majors on a reserves basis and less than 50% on an EBITDA basis. The interesting thing is other Russian sectors (telecom and media) do not sell at a discount to other Western firms. I watched some of Jim Rogers latest talks on Russia and was caught. Jim Rogers also got me hooked on commodities in the mid 00s. Then you have Jim Grant and mcdep bullish with most of the market saying Russia???? Just look at the reaction of some of our CoBF folks who I would consider to be above average value investors. So you definately have a hated asset class. On a quality basis Lukoil is the best in Russia and has about the same upside as other more opaque players like Rosneft and Surgutneftgas. The disclosure is great (see their website). This is in combination of changes in Russia observed by Jim Rogers and friend of mine who used live in Russia is what makes me bullish on this idea. We will see. Packer Hi Packer, I also did some quick/rough market cap as fractions of reserve calculations and comparisons for XOM(106%), PTR(64%), Lukoil(18%). I invested in Lukoil briefly for 2 months and got out a month ago because it wasn't clear when the catalyst would be realized. I also read somewhere that Putin mentioned he wanted to advance Russia's corporate image in terms of global ranking. I sold before Putin released Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky. Anyhow, now that you took the plunge, I want to take a closer look. I am new to the oil exploration space and am wondering how they mostly trade in terms of valuation metrics. i.e. against reserves, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT or P/E. I read somewhere the Buffett invested in PTR because it trades at a fraction of reserve versus other western companies, so I did the comparisons of reserve and would like to know your opinion on that. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftcoast Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Below is a good example of his thinking: Packer Thanks Packer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Below is a good example of his thinking: Packer Thanks Packer. Jim Rogers: you put money in russia they will either tax it away from you, or take it away from you, or shoot you in the head, put you in jail, take it away from you one way or the other. … that perceived risk is no longer as real as it was before. Things are moving in the right way in Russia. … I'm moving money there. He also said we should learn how to drive a tractor... I'm slowly getting more comfortable with putting money in Russia. Thanks to Jim Rogers, James Grant, and Packer. James Grant: The most loathed and detested securities ex-ante are the common equity of Russian oil companies, lukoil, rosneft, gazprom… … Nothing is so out of favor as Russian oil. … Gazprom is meant to be the world's worst company (according to Bloomberg) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/videoModule.swf?id=3000199363&pcode=cnbcplayershare&play=&base=http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/ Jim Rogers: I was pessimistic about Russia for 46 years, and I think it's becoming the second most-hated market in the world, after Argentina. But I see positive changes taking place, so I'm looking. I bought a few shares of an index, and a few shares of Aeroflot [ticker: AFLT.Russia] because I see positive changes taking place in airlines. … You can also buy commodities because most people, myself included, find it difficult to get to know specific Chinese companies. With cotton or sugar you don't have to worry about management teams. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903320604579115481762256534.html Where Jim Rogers is investing now: http://barrons.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-BC397_QA1014_G_20131012014641.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Sugar: Prices are 75% off their peak are due for rebound. Perhaps i should rethink my Coke investment in the near future. The interview with Jim Rogers is from October 2012, and agriculture took a big hit in 2013. So he is probably not the best market timer. ;D I don`t know if what Putin is doing is only related to Sotschi in February or if it stays that way thereafter. Position sizing is the best way to reduce the political risk, because you can never be sure whats happening. For Lukoil and the russian market Sotschi is probably a catalyst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
udravi Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Some Russian shares do indeed look cheap. Besides Lukoil, I have found two companies that look cheap and can be bought on western exchanges: Acron OAO (LSE:AKRN), manufacturer and distributor of chemical fertilizers. PE=3.6, PB=0.72, dividend=9.82%. Moshe Kantor, Russian businessmen of Jewish origin controls the company. Irkutskenergo OAO (OTC:IKSGY – not very liquid), hydraulic ant thermal power plants. PB=0.59, PE=4.88, dividend 6.8%. Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska controls this company among others like Rusal the world biggest aluminum producer. Has anybody looked into these two? I have built a tiny starter position in all three, Lukoil, Acron and Irkutsenergo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Acron has a lot of debt (although they also have a lot of cash). Are they cheap enough on EV/FCF compared to say Yara or other Western fertilizer companies? I don't like fertilizer, margins seem a little too good right now. The time to buy cyclical companies is often not when they are reporting record earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 per BB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One Idea Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Last I checked, I think LUKOY is 51% owned by the government. Same with GAZPROM. I never could decide if that was a good thing or a bad thing. If the government is corrupt, then it's a good thing when shareholder interest's are in-line with the government's. But then politicians also might skim profits off the top, leaving shareholders only returns that are deemed "fair". In other words, will success be punished with higher taxes or confiscation of assets? I had some money tied up in LUKOY for about a year. I was initially attracted to the fundamentals (the quantitative reasons to own). I resently sold because I realized that I only grasped half the story. I think the company will continue to trade at a discount as long as Russian politicians are controlling the outcomes. Ultimately, how do you handicap political risk? If your business partner can't be trusted and is "all powerful", you will be left sweeping the crumbs off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Last I checked, I think LUKOY is 51% owned by the government. You are thinking of Gazprom. The Russian government reduced their stake in Lukoil to 0 several years ago. http://www.lukoil.com/static_6_5id_2162_.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 LUKOIL has a div yield of 5.1% now It's increasing its div by 20% Last I checked, I think LUKOY is 51% owned by the government. You are thinking of Gazprom. The Russian government reduced their stake in Lukoil to 0 several years ago. http://www.lukoil.com/static_6_5id_2162_.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hellsten Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Gazprombank on Lukoil: http://www.gazprombank.ru/upload/iblock/b3d/gpb_lukoil_feb13.pdf Catalysts and risks: End of triple whammy Lukoil shares had to overcome a difficult period in 2008-2011 caused by a share overhang, which, in turn reflected: 1) the consequences of the 2008 economic downturn; 2) the effect from ConocoPhillips having pulled out of the company’s shareholders and the sale of its 20% stake in the company; and 3) substantial acceleration in production decline rates due to the reduction of drilling volumes after the 2008 crisis, the aging of West Siberian fields; and the sharp production drop at South Khylchuyuskoye field in Timan-Pechora. At present, all of these factors, which were the focus of attention in 2008-2011, have been overcome, which eases pressure on the stock and clears the way for a narrowing of the company’s discounts to peers. Key risks The key risks for the company’s shares, in our view, include a substantial prolonged decline in the oil price, the resumption of a decline of Lukoil’s oil production in Russia, capex overruns, and the possibility that the company’s resources could be squandered on inefficient acquisitions or large-scale risky exploration projects. Potential warning signals: Production. Disappointing crude production data in Russia, new wave of daily production decline in Russia (by more than 0.5-1.0% in 2013). Further increase of excise taxes in Russia. Additional indexation of excise taxes in Russia, reduction of excise tax benefits for Euro-5. Questionable acquisitions: Iraq, Africa… Increase in capex commitments. Overpayment for participation rights in Arctic offshore exploration and development projects. Slowdown in dividend growth rates. Dividend growth below 15% for 2012. Share overhang. Confirmation of SPO plans for the block of treasury shares within the next 1-2 years, rejection of plans to cancel part of treasury stock Key challenges Consistent delivery on promises. The company has yet to show whether it is capable of stabilizing production in Russia with reasonable capex in the medium term, raising free cash flow from international projects, and sustainably increasing dividend payouts to shareholders. Dividend is attractive: Consistent 15% dividend CAGR by 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loganc Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 WE ARE ALL FUCKED!!! What? Wait, we are in 2014 and the world still exists? It can't be true! Seriously, how can any of you all listen to Jim Rogers? He is a charlatan. It is so obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 You need to seperate his macro call (which are pretty bad just like everyone else) and his industry/country analyses which have been pretty good (see oil/natural resource calls in 2004) and are based upon his travels and analysis. I use his calls as places to start looking for investments and have found quite a few. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm no expert, but if Russia has any chance at meeting huge pension obligations and building out infrastructure, they will need to get serious about capital markets. But investor fear of political meddling isn't going to fade away anytime soon. I think industries outside of energy could be seen as safe, but the oil and gas industry will always be seen as vulnerable, as it's the only easy revenue source, and putins favorite playground. Is there any evidence that we've reached a tipping point and real reforms are on the way ? Thanks to packer for starting this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Two areas I see are Gov't/PE JVs where both will receive a share of profits. I have seen a few of these in the biotech area. The other area is proposals for lower taxes on technically sophisticated projects. Lukoil has a 15% IRR hurdle for projects so if they hold to that they should be OK. Another observation is Lukoil and Gazprom are large components of EM value indices so any flows in and out of EMs will effect these firms as well as the fundamentals. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnTheShouldersOfGiants Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 At the 2004 Berkshire meeting Buffett mentioned his investment in petrochina and said that Yukos was seen to have more risk than PC but implied they considered investment in Yukos before the bankruptcy. Does anyone know what happened to Yukos and why it's unlikely something similar couldn't happen to Lukoil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 yeah didnt buffet say that he had lunch with their ceo, and like a year later the CEO was in prison for doing something putin didnt like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yukos was taken over by Rosneft (the state majority owned Russian oil) after it was taken away from Yukos shareholders. It had the most Western governance practices of the Russian oil companies at that time and its CEO started to get involved in politics. The question about Lukoil as it was then is now is about the government not about the quality of the reserves as they are very good. Lukoil is now the most Western governed of the Russian oils. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil_Buffett Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yukos was taken over by Rosneft (the state majority owned Russian oil) after it was taken away from Yukos shareholders. It had the most Western governance practices of the Russian oil companies at that time and its CEO started to get involved in politics. The question about Lukoil as it was then is now is about the government not about the quality of the reserves as they are very good. Lukoil is now the most Western governed of the Russian oils. Packer as Long as the ceo from lukoil dont want to start a political career, everything is fine. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Lukoil to Spend at Peak $20 Billion as Iraqi Production Starts http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/lukoil-to-spend-at-peak-20-billion-as-iraqi-production-starts.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASTA Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OLDFIELD PARTNERS LLP Just went bananas on this stock last quarter :D http://whalewisdom.com/filer/oldfield-partners-llp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 was an interesting article on russia in the economist. Apparantly they are now even more dependent on oil export then in the 80's. something like 75% if i remember correctly. And a very large part of the country (30-40%) is employed in government. ANd an even larger % is dependent on it. they need an oil price of above 100$ to sustain their economy. So lower oil prices could be trouble for putin. As standards of living would go down, and a growing number of russians is already sceptical with him. If the Ukraine goes against putin, that could be some sort of catalyst for democracy as well (like the arab spring). Especially combined with lower oil prices. As that would mean they would need to inflate their currency. And alot of consumption is driven by imported products. So higher inflation would mean less purchasing power, which means more unhappy russians. So because government, and state run enterprises are so important for putin to stay in power (as they sustain the standard of living for alot of russians), this limits entrepreneurs and businessmen. As corrupted government officials dont like healthy competition. They see privatisation as a threath to the economy. And a growing number of talent is leaving russia because of this. Looking at the olympics, that is pretty much evidence that corruption is slowly getting out of control. The number of people employed by government has also doubled in the last decade. So where would that leave Lukoil if oil prices would go down? If putin is driven more into a corner with elections coming in 2018, what would happen to Lukoil? What if putin decides to take it over and milks it dry to keep his people happy? Anyway, would recommend to read the article, its pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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