Jump to content

BP Plc - British Petroleum


LowIQinvestor

Recommended Posts

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 141
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Earnings are this tuesday and I would assume that down stream holdings carry the company this quarter. As I mentioned above I know many may not be big Div investors on this site but at a 6.4% yield or so this looks compelling to me. I added more on Friday. The market seems to feel like the stock is going to cut the div after an "option trader" said it might this quarter. The Iran deal is definitely having an effect on this one too with more oil potentially flooding the market.

 

With 32B in cash on the balance sheet, 4.3B at the end of last Q in the DeepWater Horizon trust and tax deductible penalty payments quantified going forward the div looks safe to me and the balance sheet able to whether any prolonged oil down turn.

 

XOM looks compelling too at these levels FWIW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Those of you who hold BP are you getting nervous about the dividend being cut yet?

 

No I am not. Leverage ratio is reasonable and tons of cash on the balance sheet. Need to see how much cash then burn through this Q and project that out to see how long div is sustainable. The good thing about these majors and their cap ex cuts is a 10% cap ex cut covers 33% of the div etc. I will have to see this latest Q but they may have taken enough capex out each Q to cover the div. Asset sales have helped too and thankfully managment was a little ahead of the curve with some of these done last year.  This will help with cash burn. I cant predict the future unfortunately but a 2-3 year period of $30 or less oil may necessitate a div cut. If history is any guide management will re up the div soon after vis a vis the horizon disaster and if you look back to the financial crisis management actually raised the div when oil was at lows.

 

FWIW I think the market is pricing in a div cut at these prices and a 50% div cut still gets you a 4.5%ish yield and buying a piece of an oil major with oil at lows.

 

BP is a little more insulated then say a COP due to down stream operations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

The market is certainly not liking the lastest earnings report.  Down 9% in early trading today.  Dividend yield pushing 7.5% (for now).

 

Oil’s Race to the Bottom: Can BP Keep Up?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oils-race-to-the-bottom-can-bp-keep-up-1454420730?mod=yahoo_hs

 

True at the same time BP is trading where it was 8 days ago and oil is 10% lower. I'm not getting all that excited about that. 

 

Dudley says company can comfortably take on debt if needed to keep div. There is 26.3B in cash on balance sheet and company burned through 3.37B this year with oil around ~50 a barrel for the year?

 

Cap ex went down 4B this year with more cuts to come this year via lay offs and shutting of projects.  Every 10% cut in cap ex funds nearly a 1/3 of the div.

 

Question is, is 26.3 on balance sheet at say at 6B a year cash burn rate with oil where it is, more cap ex cuts and the capacity to borrow going to put the div at risk?

 

PlynchJr, what do you think?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good points.  They seem determined to keep the div but it seems likely to be cut if oil prices don't recover somewhat "soon".  They've cut before and if times get tough enough history is likely to repeat IMO.  I'm interested but watching from the sidelines right now.  I just have no idea at all where oil prices are going.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 years later...
  • 2 weeks later...

One week after he bought @30 it went down to 20 ......

from 3x EBITDA to near 2X

and more than 12% div yield

 

anyone worries about the debt load?

 

ValueAct’s Jeffrey Ubben buys BP and says oil company can be ‘part of the solution’

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/valueacts-jeffrey-ubben-buys-bp-and-says-oil-company-can-be-part-of-the-solution.html

 

 

full interview

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One week after he bought @30 it went down to 20 ......

from 3x EBITDA to near 2X

and more than 12% div yield

 

anyone worries about the debt load?

 

ValueAct’s Jeffrey Ubben buys BP and says oil company can be ‘part of the solution’

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/valueacts-jeffrey-ubben-buys-bp-and-says-oil-company-can-be-part-of-the-solution.html

 

 

full interview

 

 

Re Debt load: I don't have the #s in front of me, but IIRC BP is the most indebted of the oil majors when  measured on a debt-to-equity basis. This is probably a consequence of the Deepwater Horizon spill

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

ValueAct’s Jeffrey Ubben buys BP and says oil company can be ‘part of the solution’

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/valueacts-jeffrey-ubben-buys-bp-and-says-oil-company-can-be-part-of-the-solution.html

 

 

full interview

 

 

Forget SPCE! VTIQ/NKLA iz da new shizz homies!  8)

 

What did I say? SPAC electric trucks, yo. Datz how we roll.

 

The look on the Nikola CEO's face when Jeff starting talking up BP was hilarious.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...