thefatbaboon Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There will be greater Malone experts than me…but I'm almost certain he sold out of his DTV some years ago. If you go back and trawl through the old DTV filings there was a "Malone-Supervoting" Class that was retired. Some time prior to the sale he collared his position too. And if my memory serves there was some kind of a struggle between the DTV board and Malone for control. Maybe he's kept a few normal shares - but I doubt it - doesn't really fit with collaring and selling the super-voting. Not the usual AT&T-chastened Malone behavior. That said, I'm sure Malone would be proud of the disciplined way White and the Board have gone about their business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think he just swapped one class of shares for another. This article from July 2013 indicates he and his wife still owned 27.7 million shares. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-11/liberty-s-john-malone-urges-ergen-to-merge-dish-with-directv.html most recent sec filing on his DTV holdings shows the B for A swap and there have been no further filings out of DTV. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/937797/000125201710000060/xslF345X03/edgar.xml He left the board in 2010 but still had ideas for a merger with Dish in 2013 so probably hasn't sold his ordinary shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I guess he's just under 5% then? Because it isn't in the DTV proxy for 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It's possible he sold some of the shares to stay below 5% with the buybacks upping his share - or it's possible that he backed into 5% as a result of DTV's repurchases and was not listed in the proxy as 'known to hold over 5%' - in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Jefferies Liberty Global note from 12/18/13. 2013-12-18_LBTYA=US_Jefferies__C_Liberty_Global_plc__LBTYA__BUY__Operational_Moment...ng_for_Now.653243181.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loganc Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It's possible he sold some of the shares to stay below 5% with the buybacks upping his share - or it's possible that he backed into 5% as a result of DTV's repurchases and was not listed in the proxy as 'known to hold over 5%' - in error. For what it is worth, I remember Maffei mentioning that both he & Malone still has significant DTV holdings as of the Liberty Media Shareholder Meeting Q&A on 6/4/13. That being said, it seems to me that CHTR is going to be a much stronger competitor for DTV in their footprint going forward. This is probably not hugely significant to DTV, given their scale, but it is something I have been thinking about. It seems like the new pricing/packaging at CHTR are going to be hard to compete with for DTV. Anyone else have any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 That being said, it seems to me that CHTR is going to be a much stronger competitor for DTV in their footprint going forward. This is probably not hugely significant to DTV, given their scale, but it is something I have been thinking about. It seems like the new pricing/packaging at CHTR are going to be hard to compete with for DTV. Anyone else have any thoughts on this? For TV, Charter is $60 - $100 per month, DirecTV is $30 - $90 per month. At least that's what they're offering me on their websites. The cable / satellite TV war has mostly stabilized. Now cable is primarily losing customers to VZ & T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 For TV, Charter is $60 - $100 per month, DirecTV is $30 - $90 per month. At least that's what they're offering me on their websites. The cable / satellite TV war has mostly stabilized. Now cable is primarily losing customers to VZ & T. Charter's all about bundling (triple play), though. Price how much it costs you to get video + internet + phone via Charter compared to what it would cost to get DTV + phone at a telco + internet of similar speed somewhere else, and I suspect that things would look a lot more competitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Internet is $30 either way, and most new customers don't want phone service. But if you want triple play, Verizon / DirecTV triple play starts at $75, Charter triple play starts at $90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Internet is $30 either way, and most new customers don't want phone service. But if you want triple play, Verizon / DirecTV triple play starts at $75, Charter triple play starts at $90. Interesting. Same internet speeds and comparable video package? Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
constructive Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Internet is $30 either way, and most new customers don't want phone service. But if you want triple play, Verizon / DirecTV triple play starts at $75, Charter triple play starts at $90. Interesting. Same internet speeds and comparable video package? Where are you located? There are tradeoffs. DTV has more channels, but the fastest DSL will run slower than typical cable. I assume it is fast enough to stream Netflix without issue (maybe not HD). Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 From WSJ: Liberty Media CEO Waits Out His Prey http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304856504579336492407066178?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportgamma Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This is from 2010 but still has relevance to some of the questions being asked on the board: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUbQRwKXeCU - On personal leverage (more liquid today) - On DTV stake (long term hedge) - Comcast vs TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loganc Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That being said, it seems to me that CHTR is going to be a much stronger competitor for DTV in their footprint going forward. This is probably not hugely significant to DTV, given their scale, but it is something I have been thinking about. It seems like the new pricing/packaging at CHTR are going to be hard to compete with for DTV. Anyone else have any thoughts on this? For TV, Charter is $60 - $100 per month, DirecTV is $30 - $90 per month. At least that's what they're offering me on their websites. The cable / satellite TV war has mostly stabilized. Now cable is primarily losing customers to VZ & T. So, I don't want to get into some kind of nebulous argument here, but I was a DTV customer for several years (w/ HBO+HD+DVR) and I ended up paying like $100 per month for the service. I don't see where you get that DTV offers 30/month for a product that anyone wants. Also, DTV is getting like 100/sub ARPU so the DTV subs aren't paying in the range you are talking about. When CHTR says they can offer $110 triple play with 30 mbps broadband and HD, I think that is a package that DTV plus some garbage internet connection will be hard pressed to match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 From WSJ: Comcast Leaning Away From Sole Bid for Time Warner Cable http://www.nasdaq.com/article/comcast-leaning-away-from-sole-bid-for-time-warner-cable--3rd-update-20140124-00637 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Tada - comcast emerges as likely bidder for cablevision as the NY area is consolidated :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Some stats on TWC and Charter: Time Warner Cable 2009 2010 2011 YTD 9/30/12 Programming costs 3,998 4,213 4,342 3,468 Programming costs / video revenue 38.6% 39.8% 41.0% 42.1% EBITDA margin 37.8% 37.5% 37.7% 37.7% Charter Programming costs 1,724 1,806 1,879 1,484 Programming costs / video revenue 47.2% 48.7% 51.5% 54.7% EBITDA margin 37.6% 37.5% 37.7% 36.0% I am just starting to learn about cable but it looks like TWC is horribly managed. Their programming costs as a % of revenue is in the low 40s and Charter's is in the low 50s. Yet their EBITDA margins are close with TWC coming out only 1 to 2 % ahead. This is probably too simplified, but if Charter is good at the non-programming costs and them combined would give them scale on programming costs, a merger would make a lot of sense and create a ton of value. I'm assuming this is what everyone else sees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 The scale gives them negotiating power. When you account for a large chunk of your supplier's revenue, suddenly you are a very big deal to them and they need you. It mostly doesn't work the other way around; no single content provider accounts for a large chunk of the cable company's views (except for sports). When one side needs the other side more, suddenly these negotiations get lopsided. Another way of looking at it is selling in bulk. The content providers are willing to take a discount if they can sell at a bigger volume because their overall profit goes up. (You see this everyday at retail stores. When you buy in bulk you save.) If you're some small upstart content provider, you will gladly give a huge discount to Charter or whoever so that you can reach a larger number of homes. It's almost like free money to have the higher volume. They will gladly sell their content at a bargain price (which is bad for everybody else in the industry). Early on in Malone's career, Malone was able to exploit that by taking equity stakes in the content providers. The content business can potentially be a very good one with very high returns on equity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Comcast/Charter asset sale in the works: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/comcast-charter-said-to-near-pact-on-time-warner-cable-assets.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Has anyone taken a peek at Liberty Global? I just noticed that a lot of the Tiger Cubs own it or recently started a position in it in the last filing in November At surface level, it looks like a replay of TCI but in Europe but i'm unsure on the dynamics of cable in that region of the world. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Has anyone taken a peek at Liberty Global? I just noticed that a lot of the Tiger Cubs own it or recently started a position in it in the last filing in November At surface level, it looks like a replay of TCI but in Europe but i'm unsure on the dynamics of cable in that region of the world. Any thoughts? It looks fully priced to me. That being said, perhaps he can pull it off and have good growth even at fully priced levels. Given the future potential disruptors to cable, I decided to take a pass for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ajc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Liberty Media's spinoff era ends; Malone seeks durable assets Don’t assume that John Malone's Liberty Media aims to spin off its stakes in companies like Sirius XM and Charter Communications, the way it has DirecTV, Discovery Networks and other businesses in recent years. Greg Maffei, CEO of Douglas County-based Liberty Media Corp. (Nasdaq: LMCA), says his company’s days of complicated tax-free spinoffs has run it course and his years-long project to profitably "rationalize" Liberty’s stakes in other companies has given way to a new approach as Malone craves durable assets to own. “Over the past eight years, we have cleaned up most of that stuff, or virtually all of it,” Maffei told a gathering of Wall Street analysts last week. “The game we did then is not going to serve our shareholders well because we don’t trade at a 40 percent or a 35 percent discount [to asset value] ... We need to pursue new ways to create value, and we think they’re out there.” The spinoff game was good, he added. Liberty Media notched a 35 percent investor rate of return for eight years that Maffei said will be hard to replicate... http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/boosters_bits/2014/01/liberty-medias-spinoff-era-ends.html?page=all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't think that Malone will give up on tricks that work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't think that Malone will give up on tricks that work. The excerpt made it sound like he thinks that things are fully valued. The new way to create wealth might be to issue shares and consolidate/acquire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sirius is buying back shares. It will probably buy back shares hand over fist going forward. Liberty Media (LMCA/B) recently bought back a huge amount of shares in its deal with Comcast. 2- Look... they gotta say stuff to try to get the merger approved. But you want to take a good hard look at their actions. I'd look at buying SIRI or LMCA right now. The relative attractiveness between the two will fluctuation depending on what will happen with the merger/takeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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