Liberty Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Greg Maffei speaking at the Goldman Sachs conference: http://cc.talkpoint.com/gold006/091014a_ae/?entity=48_M0M8OLM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Greg Maffei speaking at the Goldman Sachs conference: http://cc.talkpoint.com/gold006/091014a_ae/?entity=48_M0M8OLM Great interview. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 this interview doesn't contain a lot of new info. rather it's a good overview of how malone and maffei do things. most of his answers are generic and broad. I would say it's not timely. However, it's a good resource for those getting up to speed on the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Discount to NAV increased by another 3% over the last 3 weeks. Liberty_Media_Spreadsheet.xlsx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Discount to NAV increased by another 3% over the last 3 weeks. Thank you for posting your spreadsheet! Well done! :) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pks99 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Discount to NAV increased by another 3% over the last 3 weeks. Wilson-TPC: Thanks for sharing your spreadsheet. What is your basis for the 1 year implied valuations of SIRI, CHTR, etc? Are these estimated IV for the holdings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simplefocus Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Hi Wilson-TPC, Where can I find the link to your spreadsheet for LMCA? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 @simplefocus On my comment above. On valuation, that's what I believe the intrinsic value of the holdings to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Why is Malone selling? ??? GioForm4.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 10b5-1 plan. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 10b5-1 plan. Typical. Thank you! ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Any word on whether the spinoff will be delayed because the Comcast-TWC merger is being pushed back to Q2-2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Any word on whether the spinoff will be delayed because the Comcast-TWC merger is being pushed back to Q2-2015? If so, I am positive I will be the last one to know… ;D ;D Though I hope that might not be the case, other members of the board surely are much better informed! Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 I don't think the spinoff was to coincide with the TWC-Comcast merger. The spinoff's intended purpose is to "reduce" the complexity discount attached to LMCA, and then have the broadband be a direct reflection of the Charter stake and possible use as an acquisition currency going forward. I think there will be speculation as to whether Malone would spinoff the remainder of the assets in LMCA and merge the Sirius XM stake back into Sirius. A possible "acquisition" by Sirius, then subsequently spin off the remaining non-core assets. E.G. Atlanta Braves, Live Nation, and Private Equity + numerous other stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loganc Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 I don't think the spinoff was to coincide with the TWC-Comcast merger. The spinoff's intended purpose is to "reduce" the complexity discount attached to LMCA, and then have the broadband be a direct reflection of the Charter stake and possible use as an acquisition currency going forward. I think there will be speculation as to whether Malone would spinoff the remainder of the assets in LMCA and merge the Sirius XM stake back into Sirius. A possible "acquisition" by Sirius, then subsequently spin off the remaining non-core assets. E.G. Atlanta Braves, Live Nation, and Private Equity + numerous other stakes. I think you are correct with respect to the Liberty Broadband comments, assuming that the CMCSA-TWC deal is going to close. I believe that Malone et al. perceive this to be the high probability event. I have no reason to believe otherwise. However, if a material change happens where the regulators skew towards blowing up the deal, I am not sure that the Broadband spin would be as desirable. At that point, CHTR would presumably revert to the strategy of buying TWC. Would Malone be able to maintain de facto control (i.e. ~26% ownership) of a full CHTR-TWC merger via the Liberty Broadband vehicle? I am not sure about that. In any event, I think that CHTR (and Liberty) win regardless of what the FTC/FCC decides on the CMCSA-TWC deal. As an LMCA/K shareholder, I continue to be happy with the actions that Maffei et al. have taken through this situation. In terms of the rest of the Liberty Media holdings, it is really a shame that the SIRI merger wasn't able to happen. In my view, the potential value creation from that particular deal would have been pretty great for both LMC and the minority SIRI shareholders. They could have continued the buyback at the LMC level which would have been much more accretive given the fact that LMC trades at a discount. Regardless, I expect that SIRI will be pulled into Liberty Media at some point after the Broadband spin. The LMCK shares have traded well and the Broadband spin will simplify Liberty Media such that it will be difficult for the minority shareholders of SIRI to reject the LMCK paper. I could be spewing total nonsense here, but that is how I am viewing the current situation. Happy to hear any thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 loganc, I agree with you. If we see the FCC rule against the Comcast-TWC merger, it might be in their interest to set the spinoff aside and/or alter it in some way to assist with a Charter-TWC merger. I believe Maffei has talked about the possibility of taking over the remainder of Sirius XM once there has been a spinoff. The idea of picking up Sirius XM as a method of getting increased exposure to an eventual folding in of Sirius XM into Liberty Media crosses my mind about once a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 From a pure financial standpoint, the Greatland spinco deal is A LOT more accretive than buying TWC. From a strategic standpoint, the Charter-TWC is A LOT more accretive. If you want to make money on the stock, the easier path is the greatland spinco deal, not the TWC deal. I don't think FCC is going to have any problems letting the Comcast deal go through. If it doesn't, it's a win-win. Malone is most likely waiting for SIRIUS to buyback more of its shares back and then unleashing a tender offer for the remaining shares. From my model, LMCA's stake in SIRIUS should increase to 87% if Sirius can achieve a sub cagr of 6% for the next 5 years and using its fcf to buyback shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Spin-off and Rights Offering announced. :) GioLMCA_News_2014_10_9_General_Releases.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wbr Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Greg Maffei talking about...pretty much everything. http://fora.tv/2014/10/09/Maximizing_Media_Returns_in_a_Time_of_Secular_Change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Greg Maffei talking about...pretty much everything. Thank you for posting! He seems to be very confident in both Sirius and Live Nation future prospects. ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Really great interview. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Have a huge favor to ask the COBF community. I was running some numbers on post-dividend, and i'm getting a holdco discount of 27%. Reason: It's not a spinoff, it's a dividend. It's a stated amount being distributed. 4.808 billion. So would it be fair to assume that the holdco value would be current market cap - 4.808 billion = new holdco value. I've attached the excel spreadsheet, so please feel free to take a look and rip it into shreds to make sure my numbers aren't off. Because if this is true, then it's a bargain post dividend. Liberty_Media.xlsx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted October 11, 2014 Author Share Posted October 11, 2014 Have a huge favor to ask the COBF community. I was running some numbers on post-dividend, and i'm getting a holdco discount of 27%. Reason: It's not a spinoff, it's a dividend. It's a stated amount being distributed. 4.808 billion. So would it be fair to assume that the holdco value would be current market cap - 4.808 billion = new holdco value. I've attached the excel spreadsheet, so please feel free to take a look and rip it into shreds to make sure my numbers aren't off. Because if this is true, then it's a bargain post dividend. Merkhet's spreadsheet is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zmgh8TzmPiItJL1gEjHHh_4b3Uv3QG53V3lL4YAsisM/pubhtml?gid=1043976554&single=true It pulls real-time data from Google Finance. EDIT: Something's screwy with it, it isn't pulling data. On the liabilities side, you forgot some of the debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 I took off the debt amount with the 300 mil the broadband was going to pay the hold co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson-TPC Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 The mobilestream stake is off in that spreadsheet... or am i off? And how did you get the share counts for TWC common and TWX common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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