Picasso Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Well I was asking if anyone knew the range of discount/premium that LMCA has traded post spin from STRZA. There are a lot of deferred taxes within LMCA that are there whether they plan to sell or not. If no one knows the discount/premium range I will try and go back a few years to see where it used to trade relative to the SOTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Well I was asking if anyone knew the range of discount/premium that LMCA has traded post spin from STRZA. There are a lot of deferred taxes within LMCA that are there whether they plan to sell or not. If no one knows the discount/premium range I will try and go back a few years to see where it used to trade relative to the SOTP. I invested in Liberty Media well before the STRZA spin-off (in which btw I have made a lot of money ;)). But I cannot help you... Because I don't keep a track record for such statistics. Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Of course, investing with Malone, I welcome any kind of market correction. For 3 reasons: 1) Malone is a true master of taking advantage of market turmoil: if the market crashes now, Liberty Media prospects for future growth only get better; 2) 30% of my portfolio is in cash: I will be able to buy more Liberty at wonderful prices; 3) At the end of every month I get more cash. Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pks99 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Of course, investing with Malone, I welcome any kind of market correction. For 3 reasons: 1) Malone is a true master of taking advantage of market turmoil: if the market crashes now, Liberty Media prospects for future growth only get better; 2) 30% of my portfolio is in cash: I will be able to buy more Liberty at wonderful prices; 3) At the end of every month I get more cash. Gio Can you further elaborate on #3? Do you get more cash at the end of every month from Malone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Can you further elaborate on #3? Do you get more cash at the end of every month from Malone?? He wishes. Gio owns a couple of businesses. He's talking about his own FCF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Can you further elaborate on #3? Do you get more cash at the end of every month from Malone?? He wishes. Gio owns a couple of businesses. He's talking about his own FCF. Yes! That was not clear... Thank you, Liberty! ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 These are always fun: http://i.imgur.com/2SypEA8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 These are always fun: +1! ;) Thank you for posting! Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peter1234 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 These are always fun: +1! ;) Thank you for posting! Gio Thanks, great graphic. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 http://investor.siriusxm.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=878541 Revenue Increases 10% to a Record $1.1 Billion Net Income of $136 Million, Up 117% Adjusted EBITDA Climbed 29% to a Record $381 Million Share Repurchases Total Nearly $2.1 Billion Year-to-Date 2014 Subscriber, Revenue and Free Cash Flow Guidance Raised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 LMCA back to being cheaper than LMCK, which doesn't make any sense. Those of you with LMCK, now might be a good time to consider a swap. :) Update: Well, it was briefly. Still pretty close. Update 2: Charter: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=112298&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1982904 Key highlights: Third quarter revenues of $2.3 billion grew 8.0% as compared to the prior-year period, led by residential revenue growth of 6.7%, and commercial revenue growth of 17.7%. Third quarter Adjusted EBITDA1 grew by 7.0% year-over-year. Net loss totaled $53 million in the third quarter of 2014, an improvement compared to a $70 million net loss in the year-ago period. Total residential customer relationships grew by 4.9% over the last twelve months, with third quarter residential revenue per customer growing 2.0% compared to the prior-year period. Residential customer relationships increased 68,000 during the third quarter, versus 46,000 during the third quarter of 2013. Residential primary service units ("PSUs") increased by 114,000 during the period, versus 100,000 in the year-ago quarter, including continued improvement in year-over-year Internet and video customer trends. As of the end of the third quarter of 2014, Charter had completed over 80% of its all-digital initiative, having deployed over 2 million set top boxes since the start of Charter's all-digital transition in 2013. Charter remains on schedule to complete its all-digital initiative by year-end 2014. Update 3: Recent writeup: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2605245-liberty-media-is-trading-at-a-meaningful-double-digit-discount-to-its-nav Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Update 3: Recent writeup: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2605245-liberty-media-is-trading-at-a-meaningful-double-digit-discount-to-its-nav It is worth noting that with Malone, there is always more to the story than what meets the eye but it would be unnecessary brain damage to try and figure it out; the good news is that in most cases, the ultimate result is a win-win for all shareholders, which is the bet here. I could not agree more! ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 LMCA back to being cheaper than LMCK, which doesn't make any sense. Those of you with LMCK, now might be a good time to consider a swap. :) I am really tempted to sell my LMCK and buy the same amount of LMCA… But why should I incur transaction costs? What will be the benefit I’d enjoy making the swap? Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 LMCA back to being cheaper than LMCK, which doesn't make any sense. Those of you with LMCK, now might be a good time to consider a swap. :) I am really tempted to sell my LMCK and buy the same amount of LMCA… But why should I incur transaction costs? What will be the benefit I’d enjoy making the swap? Gio Historically for the Malone businesses, the share classes that have voting power have traded above the share classes without. This makes sense as voting has to be worth something (even if it's hard to know what exactly), even in a controlled company, because of Malone's super-voting B shares. The premium could get highest if an asset is spun out and someone else wants to get control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Historically for the Malone businesses, the share classes that have voting power have traded above the share classes without. This makes sense as voting has to be worth something (even if it's hard to know what exactly), even in a controlled company, because of Malone's super-voting B shares. The premium could get highest if an asset is spun out and someone else wants to get control. I get this. But I had previously swapped my LMCA shares for LMCK shares, because I wanted a larger number of shares for the same price in view of the spin-off. Now I would have to swap again from LMCK to LMCA… The problem is I know the cost of swapping, while I basically ignore how much more valuable LMCA shares are than LMCK shares… Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Ok, I have just swapped back again from LMCK to LMCA! ;D Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-03/malone-gained-double-tax-break-in-liberty-address-shift.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Liberty Media Corp. Announces When-Issued Trading and Trading Symbol Information for Spin-off of Liberty Broadband Corporation http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20141103006956/en/Liberty-Media-Corp.-Announces-When-Issued-Trading-Trading#.VFgYiovF_O8 http://stockbase.com/company/LMCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8ZW/3601283952x0x791402/2f482a35-f6da-43ee-a4f8-63586aee2da2/LMCA_News_2014_11_4_General_Releases.pdf SiriusXM reported strong Q3 results Revenue increased 10% to a record $1.1 billion Adjusted EBITDA(2) climbed 29% to a record $381 million Net Income of $136 million was up 117% Share repurchases year-to-date total nearly $2.1 billion Raised 2014 subscriber, revenue and free cash flow guidance Due to share repurchases by SiriusXM, Liberty Media's ownership increased to approximately 57.5% Expect to complete Liberty Broadband Corporation ("Liberty Broadband") spin-off at 5 p.m. today, November 4th Liberty Broadband subsidiary closed $400 million margin loan financing ($320 million drawn) Proceeds partially used for approximately $300 million distribution to Liberty Media; intended to be used for share repurchases within 12 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAllen Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Liberty Media Corporation Announces Completion of Liberty Broadband Corporation Spin-Off http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20141104006986/en/Liberty-Media-Corporation-Announces-Completion-Liberty-Broadband via http://stockbase.com/company/LMCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Anyone run the math yet as to the discount of each piece? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 I updated my spreadsheets: LMCA https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jh4eIMnqoVPMmfSnhzCPmHca8_aKgzdzHafYVxMERbw/edit?usp=sharing *Not all of the prices are real-time. LBRDA https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g1ZIuZWFOS5ep6CsKR0el-Icz6c1R_tGUpip0bsJVtA/edit?usp=sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/tracking-john-malone-part-5-nov-2014-update-why-control-matters/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 A few thoughts about what to do next. Looking at my account after the spin off, of legacy LMCA - Ive got 34% of Liberty Broadband and 66% Liberty Media. Charter makes up roughly 80% of LBRDA; Sirius makes up 80% of LMCA. Malone spun the cable assets and now has currency to offer to SIRI shareholders. I wonder if its not better to be Malone's prey in this situation instead of his partner. Each share of LMCA - 8 shares of SIRI + ~$8 of other interests. SIRI and LMCA are now tied at the hip so there is really no more risk in SIRI than LMCA. Malone will have to offer a premium to take over SIRI either in the form of LMCA shares or cash. If Malone dilutes LMCA to buy SIRI he will increase the discount on LMCA. Why not trade LMCA shares for SIRI, then let Malone offer you even more deeply discounted LMCA shares for SIRI shares at a premium to the market? Malone wouldn't care to drive LMCA shares down because he will then use SIRI's cash flow to buy them back at a discount. Am I missing something here? This could get even more interesting with leverage by buying DITM '16 calls on SIRI or $3/$4 ' 16 bull spreads. The bull spread can be had for $0.47. If Malone offers $4 or more you have a double. Each share of LMCA = 8 SIRI +~$8; = 10.3 shares of SIRI. So you could sell 100 shares of LMCA and get roughly the same performance with 13 3/4 bull spread of SIRI: 100 LMCA @ $36 - $3600 a. SIRI goes to $4 - LMCA trades @ $40 = +$400 b. SIRI goes to $3 ,2, 1 - LMCA trades @ $32, $24, $16 = -$400 , -$1200, -$2000 c. the 8% discount disappears - $38.88 = +$288 13 - 3/4 bull spread @ $47 a. SIRI goes to $4 - 3/4 spread @ $100 = +$1300 b. SIRI goes to $3 , 2 , 1 - 3/4 spread @ $0 = -$620 Break even for the trade 100 LMCA vs 13 - 3/4 SIRI is Sirius @ $2.72 and $5. I.e. It would be better to own LMCA if SIRI >$5. From Siri $3 to $4 you are the spread should give you about 30% more price movement than LMCA. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 why does he need to take it over? he controls it. he can control their capital allocation and cap structure. they just keep buying back stock and he owns a bigger %. he also can buy back stock at liberty so he can win 2 ways. the end game is he creates a stock like ltripa and gives siri to shareholders. malone is not not in the habit of paying premiums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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