txlaw Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here's a good interview with Wheeler: http://www.cnet.com/news/net-fix-fcc-chief-on-solving-the-open-internet-puzzle-q-a/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JoelS Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Txlaw, you appear to be fairly experienced in legal issues. How much damage do you think Obama and the FCC can do to the cable companies.. If you had to lay it out in a probability tree, do you see impairment in value over a 3-5 year period? I can't go too much into the legal issues, unfortunately, as I actually used to practice telecom law and it would be imprudent for me to give anything resembling legal advice on the Internet. And putting a probability tree out there would be very much the type of analysis that you might get from regulatory counsel, so that's a no go. Also, a lot of the outcomes are dependent on politics, as opposed to legal issues. Not exactly sure what you mean by impairment over a 3-5 year period. Are you asking whether or not I think the effects of regulation will show up in cable co earnings/biz prospects over the next 5 years? No problem, I understand. Yes, I'm asking whether these proposals, if they go through and survive the lawsuits, will affect the cash flows. Its not clear to me what the effect will be if they succeed in classifying as title II. There is a lot of uncertainty. I am trying to assess whether there is a lot of risk. Thanks for posting the interview, very informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Txlaw, you appear to be fairly experienced in legal issues. How much damage do you think Obama and the FCC can do to the cable companies.. If you had to lay it out in a probability tree, do you see impairment in value over a 3-5 year period? I can't go too much into the legal issues, unfortunately, as I actually used to practice telecom law and it would be imprudent for me to give anything resembling legal advice on the Internet. And putting a probability tree out there would be very much the type of analysis that you might get from regulatory counsel, so that's a no go. Also, a lot of the outcomes are dependent on politics, as opposed to legal issues. Not exactly sure what you mean by impairment over a 3-5 year period. Are you asking whether or not I think the effects of regulation will show up in cable co earnings/biz prospects over the next 5 years? No problem, I understand. Yes, I'm asking whether these proposals, if they go through and survive the lawsuits, will affect the cash flows. Its not clear to me what the effect will be if they succeed in classifying as title II. There is a lot of uncertainty. I am trying to assess whether there is a lot of risk. Thanks for posting the interview, very informative. I'm not sure if the cash flows will be affected in the short term (3 to 5 years) as a result of FCC actions. I think the greatest threats to cablecos are the changing nature of video consumption, the rise of OTT providers, and increased broadband competition from wireless companies and fiber "overbuilders." Regulatory changes that increase or accelerate those threats are always something to be wary of (if you're an investor). I personally would not buy cablecos because they appear to trade at what appears to be very high owner earnings yields, and I am uncertain about how things are going to shake out over the next decade. Having said that, people like John Malone are incredibly rational and will do the best they can to maximize the financial value they can generate from their businesses. Even if the industry becomes less attractive as a whole in the US, specific companies could be fine investments if the leaders at the helm react in rational way to the changing landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magno111 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 And I expect that by the time the NOLs run out and they have to start paying taxes, SIRI will have been folded into LMCA (the buybacks bring that day closer all the time) and Malone and Maffei will find a way to minimize taxes further. I think a possibility for them could be buying Sirius Canada and make a tax inversion to reduce taxes from 41% to 25%... like Valeant, Burguer king or liberty global... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunrider Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I've been offline for a while and am a bit confused - a while ago I saw LBxxx.EX and LBxxx.OS in my account, which I presume were the oversubscription rights ... now they are gone but I can't quite seem to find the transaction in IB's reporting that booked in the stock? Anyone know what I should be seeing (I realise that cash was probably debited a long time prior to that)? Thank you! I got mine their oversubscription rights, any one else? You have the rights - but I thought the oversubscription wouldn't be realized until Jan 9th when you know how many rights other people forgo? Cash for the oversubscription is usually debited up front when you exercise. So what benchmark saw is probably the cash withholding. Oversubscription will be sorted out after the deadline at which point any unused cash will be returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
namo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It should appear in the Corporate Actions section of the IB reports. I haven't checked if the last reports have all the information already... but they probably do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Professor Susan Crawford on current iterations of net neutrality bill: https://medium.com/backchannel/the-net-neutrality-bait-and-switch-cedb65f1a1cd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 SIRI Q4: http://investor.siriusxm.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=894894 2014 Revenue Climbs 10% to $4.18 Billion Net Income Increases 31% to $493 Million in 2014 Record Adjusted EBITDA of $1.47 Billion in 2014, up 26% 2014 Free Cash Flow Reaches Record $1.16 Billion, up 25% $2.5 Billion of Stock Repurchased in 2014 FOURTH QUARTER 2014 HIGHLIGHTS Strong fourth quarter net subscriber gains. SiriusXM recorded 576,689 net new subscribers in the fourth quarter, marking the largest fourth-quarter increase since 2007. Self-pay net subscriber additions were 508,032 in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to 411,484 in the fourth quarter of 2013. Record high fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA of $381 million in the fourth quarter of 2014 was the highest quarterly amount in the company's history, an increase of 17% over the fourth quarter 2013. Record free cash flow per diluted share. Free cash flow reached a fourth quarter record of $331 million, while free cash flow per diluted share reached an all-time high of 5.9 cents in the fourth quarter of 2014, up 20% from the fourth quarter of 2013. FULL-YEAR 2014 HIGHLIGHTS Full-year subscriber gains exceed targets. SiriusXM reported 2014 total and self-pay net subscriber additions, respectively, of 1,751,777 and 1,440,821, each ahead of the company's original full-year guidance of 1,250,000. The company ended 2014 with 27.3 million total paying subscribers and 22.5 million self-pay subscribers, each up 7% from the end of 2013. Share buybacks reach $2.5 billion in 2014. The company returned $2.5 billion to stockholders by repurchasing 739 million shares in 2014. As of year-end, approximately $1.7 billion remained under the company's existing $6 billion share repurchase authorization. Record-high adjusted EBITDA and margin. Adjusted EBITDA grew 26% to a record $1.47 billion in 2014 from $1.17 billion in 2013. Adjusted EBITDA margin grew approximately 440 basis points to a record high 35.0%. Rapid expansion of free cash flow. SiriusXM reported $1.16 billion of free cash flow in 2014, up 25% from $927 million in 2013. The company reported 19.7 cents of free cash flow per diluted share in 2014, up 36% from 14.5 cents per diluted share in 2013. If anyone wants the audio of the call (sorry, didn't catch the very beginning): https://www.dropbox.com/s/zozpfag6oias1cr/2015-Q4-SIRI-CC.m4a?dl=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folivera13 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Locust Wood's Steve Errico talks about Liberty Media and Broadband...two other interesting picks: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-13/locust-wood-s-errico-we-like-northstar-tesoro-logistics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 http://ir.libertymedia.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=898377 SiriusXM reported strong fourth quarter and full year results Subscriber base grew to 27.3 million Revenue of $1.09 billion and $4.18 billion for the fourth quarter and full-year, respectively Adjusted EBITDA(2) grew 17% to $381 million for the quarter and 26% to $1.47 billion for the full year Net income increased 31% to $493 million in 2014 2014 free cash flow(2) reached a record $1.16 billion, up 25% Repurchased $2.5 billion in shares in 2014 Reiterated 2015 guidance: net subscriber additions of approximately 1.2 million, revenue of approximately $4.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion, and free cash flow of approximately $1.25 billion Liberty Media's ownership of SiriusXM stood at 56.7%(3) as of February 3, 2015 From November 1, 2014 through January 31, 2015, repurchased 489 thousand LMCK shares at an average price per share of $34.75 and a total cost of $17 million Completed the spin-off of Liberty Broadband Corporation ("Liberty Broadband") on November 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Live Nation results: http://investors.livenationentertainment.com/files/doc_financials/2014/4Q/LYV-Q4-FY-2014-Earnings-Press-Release-FINAL_v001_p6t8oq.pdf Full Year 2014 - Record Year Record Setting Ticketmaster GTV of $23 Billion TM+ GTV Over $1 Billion Since Launch Over 1 Billion Fans Visit Websites Online Advertising Profit up 15% with 80% Margin Revenue Up 6% to $6.9 Billion AOI Up 10% to $555 Million Normalized Operating Income Up 7% to $161 Million; Including Non-Cash Charges, Operating Income of $7 Million Normalized Net Income of $22 Million, Up $50 Million from 2013; Including Non-Cash Charges, Net Loss of $91 Million Free Cash Flow Up 9% to $327 Million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 SIRI hitting post recession high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JoelS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If I'm not mistaken, I notice a number of new holdings on the Liberty Media asset list. They look more like venture capital investments than tactical or strategic stakes. The Indian streaming service "Saavn" looks particularly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Maffei has been speaking at the Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecom conference http://ir.libertymedia.com/events.cfm Also, I think SIRI traded higher than today in october 2013. SIRI hitting post recession high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Also, I think SIRI traded higher than today in october 2013. I think you're right, it went to 4.05. I just eyeballed it quickly. Apologies, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The replay of Maffei's comments is now up and, as always, it's great to hear Greg speak about his various industries. http://ir.libertymedia.com/events.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm no debt expert, but that seems like a good deal for SIRI: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sirius-xm-radio-inc-prices-offering-of-10-billion-of-5375-senior-notes-due-2025-300044969.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Writeup on Live Nation: Live Nation Entertainment: An Unregulated Monopoly? https://punchcardblog.wordpress.com/2015/03/05/live-nation-entertainment-an-unregulated-monopoly/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 http://nypost.com/2015/03/08/malone-approaches-bollore-with-universal-in-mind/ Media mogul John Malone is playing again in the music arena. The chairman of Liberty Media approached Vincent Bolloré, the chairman and biggest shareholder of Vivendi, to gauge the French media and entertainment conglomerate’s interest in selling Universal Music Group, The Post has learned. Malone and his top lieutenant, Greg Maffei, made the overture for the world’s biggest record company in the last few months, sources said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 http://nypost.com/2015/03/08/malone-approaches-bollore-with-universal-in-mind/ Media mogul John Malone is playing again in the music arena. The chairman of Liberty Media approached Vincent Bolloré, the chairman and biggest shareholder of Vivendi, to gauge the French media and entertainment conglomerate’s interest in selling Universal Music Group, The Post has learned. Malone and his top lieutenant, Greg Maffei, made the overture for the world’s biggest record company in the last few months, sources said. From the same article: “They would have to pay an astronomical number,” said one source. “They are not well liked by Vivendi.” Malone has a history with Vivendi. Liberty won a $950 million verdict against Vivendi in 2013, after it sued the French company for allegedly inflating the value of the shares it used to purchase Liberty’s stake in USA Networks more than a decade earlier. Vivendi vowed to appeal the decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 http://nypost.com/2015/03/08/malone-approaches-bollore-with-universal-in-mind/ Media mogul John Malone is playing again in the music arena. The chairman of Liberty Media approached Vincent Bolloré, the chairman and biggest shareholder of Vivendi, to gauge the French media and entertainment conglomerate’s interest in selling Universal Music Group, The Post has learned. Malone and his top lieutenant, Greg Maffei, made the overture for the world’s biggest record company in the last few months, sources said. From the same article: “They would have to pay an astronomical number,” said one source. “They are not well liked by Vivendi.” Malone has a history with Vivendi. Liberty won a $950 million verdict against Vivendi in 2013, after it sued the French company for allegedly inflating the value of the shares it used to purchase Liberty’s stake in USA Networks more than a decade earlier. Vivendi vowed to appeal the decision. That's true. But these guys are pragmatic and do deals. We don't always have all the motivations behind the scenes. For example, Charter and Liberty were fighting against Comcast for TWC, then they got a very sweet deal for seemingly all the assets they wanted and a great management contract for Great Land, etc. Maybe Malone has something that Vivendi wants, etc. Or maybe nothing will come of it. We'll see. Just interesting to see these glimpses of the predator on the hunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 I wonder what their rationale for buying Universal is. Perhaps they see analogies to All3Media. All3Media was a mediocre production company. However, because they produced content, they have a content library of rights. Going forward, those rights will likely throw off cash and won't be disrupted by technology much. I think music rights will throw off cash nicely in the future. I don't see technology disrupting that much. If Internet radio takes over, those services still have to buy music rights. People who make TV ads and movies and such still have to buy rights to music. There might be a turnaround aspect to Universal music. Maybe Malone/Maffei have somebody in mind, or think that they can just find somebody to run that business better. I really haven't looked at Universal's financials and their metrics to know how well-run they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Writeup on Sirius XM: https://punchcardblog.wordpress.com/2015/04/10/sirius-xm-holdings-the-subscription-media-business/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 http://www.envisionreports.com/LMC/2015/1E531MA15E/bf90dc30248e4c4b9bf9001b53ee725e/Liberty_Media_Corporation_AR_4-20-15_SECURED.pdf Nice letter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JoelS Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 http://www.envisionreports.com/LMC/2015/1E531MA15E/bf90dc30248e4c4b9bf9001b53ee725e/Liberty_Media_Corporation_AR_4-20-15_SECURED.pdf Nice letter. Great letter. Thanks for posting Liberty. Dumb question, but where did you find the report? I couldn't see it on the Liberty Media website. I would like to read the Liberty Interactive letter if available but couldn't find that on the LINT website either. Edit: Found the Liberty Media one. Interactive doesn't appear to be out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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