mevsemt Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 On relative attractiveness, it all depends... With LSXM there is finally a "pure" SIRI tracker. Since LSXM is trading at a discount, it makes much more sense for SIRI to "buyback" LSXM shares (instead of SIRI shares). If this happens, the NAV discount on LSXM will disappear and LSXM and SIRI would likely merge. This could happen relatively soon... With LMC the NAV discount is certainly attractive, but the path to collapse the discount is likely several years or more into the future. In the meantime, I expect LMC to buyback their own stock. Also, on a look through basis, LYV is certainly not the typical subscription-business / levered-equity-shrink (although I do think LYV is moderately attractive at these prices). With BATR it's all about the hidden asset(s), and these come in 2 forms. First is the real estate, and who knows what that's worth... Second is their minority stake in MLBAM / Tech BAM, and again, it's really not clear to me how much it's worth, but it could be a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Also for BATR no one really knows what the parking, concession, luxury box, sponsorship revenues will look like for the new SunTrust Park. They'll have a much better split for the Braves than with Turner. Longer term in 2027, Braves finally get out of the TV deal. Who knows what the RSN fees will look like then? They'll certainly be higher than what they get now $25-30M per year. Lastly, there will be concert/entertainment revenues as the Braves are working with LYV to bring non-game day music events to park. BAM Tech has some chatter that Disney is in talks to be an investor. I think the valuations have come down a lot since $6B ($200M per team) back in 2014. There was talk about an IPO, but looks like the market vol plus valuation may have killed that. It'll be interesting to see what the BATR rights offering prices at and whether Malone or LMCA will backstop it. I'm thinking there will be an opportunity then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgyetzer Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/nr55ibwy This is a bit long, but at the end during the Q&A Malone discusses his enthusiasm for LYV and makes mention of some of the other assets of LMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Actually, the discount to NAV for LVNTA is about the same as for LMCA - maybe you could argue larger. I'm not sure these discounts get narrowed or NAV grows unless a) spin-off of an existing investment is actually made or b) growth of the investment over several years due to making a good deal. In the case of LMCA, except for LVY it's an almost empty shell with cash so one is betting on the jockey to make a few more deals before Malone retires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Remember to account for leverage when thinking about NAV discounts. Higher leverage = higher risk means a bigger discount makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgyetzer Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Actually, the discount to NAV for LVNTA is about the same as for LMCA - maybe you could argue larger. I'm not sure these discounts get narrowed or NAV grows unless a) spin-off of an existing investment is actually made or b) growth of the investment over several years due to making a good deal. In the case of LMCA, except for LVY it's an almost empty shell with cash so one is betting on the jockey to make a few more deals before Malone retires. Scorpion, I'm curious about your above statement on LVNTA. You previously made a reference in the LVNTA forum about it being worth ~$36 NAV/sh. I figured around $38-40 depending on CHTR/LBRD valuation, but not as much a discount as LMC. Would you mind shedding light? - Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 I used the study here as a baseline: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LIBERTY_VENTURES/137022 Basically I backed out all the fluffy investments and used a slightly lower market price for Expedia/Charter/IILG and 50% of the multiple for the operating cos. The number was around $36/share. They quote $50 NAV so it's two ways of saying the same thing. As with any holding company that has large publicly trades stakes, much hinges on the valuation of those investments. If those are overvalued, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinwalt Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Link to the Nov 2015 Presentation http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8ZW/1917297770x0x861474/78C0F42B-18BD-4D9B-B35E-854E84830685/2015_-_liberty_media_corp_investor_day.pdf Second last slide - Live Nation Numbers - makes it look kinda cheap.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted April 23, 2016 Share Posted April 23, 2016 Another angle on Ticketmaster - http://www.billboard.com/articles/business/7333005/ticketmaster-facebook-integration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinwalt Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Braves presentation, 21-Apr-16 http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8ZW/1917297770x0x887114/F4E1E31C-97E1-41BA-8F3E-3083F8E04A05/Liberty_Braves_Investor_Day_2016_Webcast.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinwalt Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 And, FWIW, a bunch of stuff on LYV: Live Nation - Everybody Wants To Rule The World: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1401441-live-nation-everybody-wants-to-rule-the-world LYV An unregulated Monopoly https://punchcardresearch.com/2015/03/05/live-nation-entertainment-an-unregulated-monopoly/ LYV November 23, 2011 by aviclara181 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LIVE_NATION_ENTERTAINMENT/59719 LYV April 01, 2013 by goob392 https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/LIVE_NATION_ENTERTAINMENT/96985 Glenn Chan's Random Notes on Investing https://glennchan.wordpress.com/tag/live-nation-lyv/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 I suspected that a lot of LMCA investors would swap out of BATR once the tracking stocks were issued but it is really getting crushed. Now down near $14. If you even remotely believe the value of the assets used by Liberty in their Investor materials from a week ago, this is trading at a substantial discount. And carries the rights offering with it - to invest even cheaper. Granted it's not the typical Liberty investment - very little cash flow or ability to repurchase shares, underlying value is very specific and difficult to value, etc. But really cheap and you still get Malone/Maffei heavily invested and managing the assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Yeah, with BATRA being crushed every day, I am starting to think if I should add a bit. And then a day later it's even cheaper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 In their presentation slides for Braves the first line is Forbes valuation, then additions and deductions from that. Clearly this is a self-referential valuation. To come to a valuation of a sport team like this is quite difficult and imprecise. I would have liked to see a future cash flow analysis or some more detailed potential metrics. Regardless, this investment , believe it or not, has some echoes to the investment Buffett made in Seritage. If inflation will heat up somewhat you have a real estate play with a set of retail consumer shopping businesses anchoring the game. It also has some echoes of HomeFed. But valuation should have some pretty wide parameters given the potential outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 http://www.marca.com/en/more-sports/2016/09/03/57cb06c4e2704eec028b4606.html http://www.reuters.com/article/us-formula-one-m-a-liberty-media-idUSKCN1190LI "American media and entertainment company Liberty Media, based in Colorado, will be buying Formula One, with current investor Bernie Ecclestone confirming the deal to German magazine 'Auto Motor and Sport'.The first of two major payments is expected to take place next week, with ownership changing hands as soon as the money transfer is complete.In an 7.6 billion euro takeover, the American company buys out CVC, who owns 35.1 percent, Waddell and Reed (20.9%), Bambino Trust (8.5%) and Ecclestone (5.3%)." I'm a little confused as Liberty doesn't have anywhere near to $8.5 billion USD in cash lying around. Any thoughts? Large rights offering or sale of shares, sale of Sirius perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maybe4less Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 http://www.marca.com/en/more-sports/2016/09/03/57cb06c4e2704eec028b4606.html http://www.reuters.com/article/us-formula-one-m-a-liberty-media-idUSKCN1190LI "American media and entertainment company Liberty Media, based in Colorado, will be buying Formula One, with current investor Bernie Ecclestone confirming the deal to German magazine 'Auto Motor and Sport'.The first of two major payments is expected to take place next week, with ownership changing hands as soon as the money transfer is complete.In an 7.6 billion euro takeover, the American company buys out CVC, who owns 35.1 percent, Waddell and Reed (20.9%), Bambino Trust (8.5%) and Ecclestone (5.3%)." I'm a little confused as Liberty doesn't have anywhere near to $8.5 billion USD in cash lying around. Any thoughts? Large rights offering or sale of shares, sale of Sirius perhaps? Your second link mentions Discovery and Liberty Global being part of the deal too. Or was that a separate bid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 http://www.marca.com/en/more-sports/2016/09/03/57cb06c4e2704eec028b4606.html http://www.reuters.com/article/us-formula-one-m-a-liberty-media-idUSKCN1190LI "American media and entertainment company Liberty Media, based in Colorado, will be buying Formula One, with current investor Bernie Ecclestone confirming the deal to German magazine 'Auto Motor and Sport'.The first of two major payments is expected to take place next week, with ownership changing hands as soon as the money transfer is complete.In an 7.6 billion euro takeover, the American company buys out CVC, who owns 35.1 percent, Waddell and Reed (20.9%), Bambino Trust (8.5%) and Ecclestone (5.3%)." I'm a little confused as Liberty doesn't have anywhere near to $8.5 billion USD in cash lying around. Any thoughts? Large rights offering or sale of shares, sale of Sirius perhaps? Your second link mentions Discovery and Liberty Global being part of the deal too. Or was that a separate bid? I believe that was a different bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 http://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2015/07/15/the-secret-behind-formula-ones-4-4-billion-profits/#56db2727ceaf http://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2016/09/04/exclusive-formula-one-sale-to-liberty-media-is-a-done-deal/#5e2196d06c6a The latest article seems to suggest there is not much growth to be extracted at this valuation. Anyone think this is a vanity project? I read somewhere Malone wanted to get this asset in competition with Rupert Murdoch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 The $100 Million Hurdle In The Way Of Liberty's F1 Takeover http://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2016/09/06/exclusive-the-100-million-hurdle-in-the-way-of-libertys-f1-takeover/#4508567f19ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/07/liberty-media-to-purchase-formula-1.html Liberty Media will purchase auto racing league Formula 1, the media company announced on Wednesday. The company it will be acquiring an 18.7 percent stake in Formula 1, worth $4.4 billion. While the initial purchase is just a stake in the company, it will evolve into a full purchase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Details: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1560385/000110465916143533/a16-18039_18k.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Do you know if the Reference Price of $21.26 based on Aug 31 closing price is fixed or it's variable based on some future date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 http://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2015/07/15/the-secret-behind-formula-ones-4-4-billion-profits/#56db2727ceaf http://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2016/09/04/exclusive-formula-one-sale-to-liberty-media-is-a-done-deal/#5e2196d06c6a The latest article seems to suggest there is not much growth to be extracted at this valuation. Anyone think this is a vanity project? I read somewhere Malone wanted to get this asset in competition with Rupert Murdoch. What's going on right now in the Media sector is a bidding of rare assets that are valuable. Formula one is one of the best racing assets out there. And there are growth opportunities. Although F1 hasn't been popular in the past in the United States. Now there is an expansion with the track in Austin and a possibility of more growth and popularity in the US. You say it is a vanity asset. Then by that logic the braves can be looked at the same way. At the end of the day both are rare and valuable and one of a kind and the content can be pushed out to all the networks and cable packages Liberty Media owns in the empire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 I have no doubt they are profitable and at reasonable (current) valuation. The deal looks decent. The analyst asked my question at the call - my main concerns are the above-average cyclical nature of discretionary live entertainment in a recession and the use of high variable rate debt to finance such an asset. Otherwise, there is no doubt these are cash cows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 8, 2016 Share Posted September 8, 2016 Deck: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8ZW/2795571252x0x907365/08DCDA43-206A-499F-B5BD-1F462F37B0D7/Project_Rock_Investor_Deck_FINAL.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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